Coordinating Tariff Reduction and Domestic Tax Reform under Imperfect Competition*

A major constraint on trade liberalization in many countries is the prospective loss of government revenue. Recent results, however, have established a simple and appealing strategy for overcoming this difficulty, whilst still realizing the efficiency gains from liberalization, in small, competitive economies: combining tariff cuts with point‐for‐point increases in destination‐based consumption taxes unambiguously increases both national welfare and total government revenue. This note explores the implications of imperfect competition for this strategy. Examples are easily found in which this strategy unambiguously reduces domestic welfare.     

Race‐to‐the‐bottom Tariff Cutting

Unilateral tariff liberalization accounts for the lion's share of trade liberalization since the 1980s and has accompanied the most successful trade‐led development model of the past 50 years, “Factory Asia”. Understanding what drove this liberalization is therefore crucial to our grasp of the process of economic development. This paper provides empirical evidence for seven Asian emerging economies from 1988 to 2006 consistent with a tariff race to the bottom driven by a competition for foreign direct investment (FDI). The identification is two‐pronged. First, it is shown that tariffs on parts and components, intermediates and capital goods, crucial locational determinants for assembly firms, are correlated in competitive space, i.e. across countries at a similar level of development, but not across all countries. Second, it is shown that the tariff correlation in competitive space is significantly higher for inputs than consumer goods.     

The Effects of Trade Liberalization between Heterogeneous Countries on Endogenous Mergers

This paper examines the effects of trade liberalization on merger behavior. We endogenize merger choice among owners in an oligopolistic industry in asymmetric countries to analyze the consequences of trade cost reductions on competitiveness and welfare. In this context, the non‐cooperative game supports asymmetric market structures. We also find that trade liberalization is not necessarily pro‐competitive in countries with the competitive advantage, even if trade costs are completely abolished. Moreover, the tariff‐jumping explanation of international mergers does not necessarily apply. The welfare analysis shows that merger behavior can significantly alter any gains from liberalization. Countries should consider enforcing competition in regional agreements. Specifically, to avoid a reduction in domestic welfare following trade‐liberalizing reductions in trade costs, a high‐cost country's optimal policy may be to ban international mergers.     

Regional versus Multilateral Trade Liberalization,Environmental Taxation,and Welfare

The paper considers trade between identical countries with imperfectly competitive markets, and compares the impacts of regional and multilateral tariff reduction on strategic environmental taxation and welfare. While both forms of trade liberalization increase production and consumption in tariff‐reducing countries, regionalism also reduces production in a non‐participating country and may decrease its consumption. Consequently, regionalism and multilateralism change pollution tax and welfare in the tariff‐reducing countries in similar ways when pollution is local, but in dissimilar ways for global pollution. When pollution is global, regionalism is likely to be preferred to multilateralism for the establishment of free trade among countries.     

Tariff Reductions in the Presence of Foreign Direct Investment

This paper argues that the welfare effects of trade liberalization in the presence of foreign direct investment obtained under perfect competition cannot be extended to imperfectly competitive markets. In the Heckscher-Ohlin model, trade liberalization may be paradoxically immiserizing when the traditional welfare-increasing result is corrected for the change in foreign capital revenue. Under imperfect competition this cannot occur, except under rather implausible assumptions. Indeed, a tariff reduction is expected to increase welfare when the welfare indicator is corrected for the presence of foreign capital, regardless of the type of market structure and the form of competitive rivalry.     

Trade policy and quality leadership in transition economies

Trade policy and quality leadership in transition economies are analyzed in a duopoly model of trade and vertical product differentiation. We first show that the incidence of trade liberalization is sensitive to whether firms in transition economies are producers of low or high quality. Second, we find that neither free trade nor the absence of a domestic subsidy are optimal: Both a tariff and a subsidy increase price competition and while the former extracts foreign rents the latter results in quality upgrading. Third, there exists a rationale for a government to commit to a socially optimal policy to induce quality leadership by the domestic firm when cost asymmetries are low. Finally, we establish an equivalence result between the effects of long-run exchange rate changes and those of trade policy on price competition (but not on social welfare).     

The competition effects of the Single Market in Europe

The reduction in trade barriers in Europe through the Single Market Programme (SMP) was intended to increase competition in European markets, and hence welfare and efficiency. The paper examines how the SMP has affected trade patterns and what can be learnt from this regarding the impact on competitive behaviour. Combining an econometric and computable general equilibrium methodology, it is argued that (1) the SMP has indeed had a strong impact on competitive behaviour; (2) the extent of the impact depends both on changes in the intensity of competition as well as on changes in the nature of competitive interaction; (3) while all economies experience potentially large welfare gains from the SMP, it is the smaller economies that experience the larger gains, but this in turn suggests that they experience a greater degree of restructuring.     

Reassessing the productivity gains from trade liberalization

This paper reassesses the impact of trade liberalization on productivity. We build a new, unique database of effective tariff rates at the country‐industry level for a broad range of countries over the past two decades. We then explore both the direct effect of liberalization in the sector considered, as well as its indirect impact in downstream industries via input linkages. Our findings point to a dominant role of the indirect input market channel in fostering productivity gains. A 1 percentage point decline in input tariffs is estimated to increase total factor productivity by about 2 percent in the sector considered. For advanced economies, the implied potential productivity gains from fully eliminating remaining tariffs are estimated at around 1 percent, on average, which do not factor in the presumably larger gains from removing existing non‐tariff barriers. Finally, we find suggestive evidence of complementarities between trade and FDI liberalization in boosting productivity. This calls for a broad liberalization agenda that cuts across different areas.     

The incidence of import liberalization with and without a value added tax: an application to bangladesh

This paper examines the impact of import tariffs and tariff-replacing indirect taxes on the welfare of households grouped by the size distribution of income. A computable general equilibrium model for Bangladesh is simulated to examine the removal of quantitative restrictions and tariffs as well as the replacement of trade taxes with a value added tax (VAT). Import liberalization alone expands the manufacturing sector and increases the welfare of lower income households. If a uniform VAT is placed on both imports and all non-agricultural production in order to replace the lost tariff revenue for the government, some of the gains from import liberalization are diminished. If exports are exempted from the VAT, the gains are sustained to a greater degree. With a combination of tariff liberalization, quota markups, and the VAT, the economy goes through a contraction and the welfare of all households is reduced.     

Trade Liberalization in the Presence of Foreign Direct Investment and Tax Credits: Estimates for Costa Rica

The paper uses a calibrated general-equilibrium model to quantify the welfare impact of trade liberalization—and compute the optimal tariff structure—for Costa Rica when trade-policy-induced foreign direct investment and international capital taxation with credits are present. It shows that complete trade liberalization reduces Costa Rica's welfare, as it leads to an outflow of capital and loss of tax revenue which more than offset the efficiency gains from an enhanced resource allocation. The optimal tariff structure for the Costa Rican economy turns out to be a mixture of relatively small import tariffs and subsidies.     

A computable general equilibrium analysis of the welfare effects of trade liberalization under different market structures

Using a static world computable general equilibrium model with 16 sectors and 14 regions, this paper compares welfare effects of trade liberalization of the perfectly competitive model and eight imperfectly competitive models. Our main findings are as follows. First, the size of the welfare impact systematically depends on the type of model. Second, the welfare impact of the perfectly competitive model is not necessarily smaller than those of imperfectly competitive models. Third, the integrated market model tends to have a larger welfare impact than the segmented market model. Fourth, the model with the fixed number of firms tends to have a small welfare impact. Finally, the variety effect tends to have a stronger influence on the welfare effects of liberalization than do scale and markup effects. Differences in the models can be viewed as differences in the economic structures of the regions being analyzed, and therefore the analysis in this paper makes it possible to derive policy implications with regard to the relationship between economic structure and trade liberalization.     

The price effect of tariff liberalization: Measuring the impact on household welfare

Trade policy literature has for many years emphasized open policies positive impact on economic growth and development. While these results generally hold when measured on averages, empirical evidence suggests that trade liberalization is unlikely to produce beneficial results across all households. This study adds to the literature by providing an analysis of the distributive effects of tariff liberalization in Mexico. The paper examines the effect of tariff liberalization from the perspective of households both as consumers and factor owners allowing for imperfect domestic price transmission. The results indicate the overall positive effect of tariff liberalization masks significant differences in the distribution of gains both across income levels and across geographic regions. Richer households are found to have gained relatively more. Urban areas, as well as Mexican states closest to the United States border, are also found to be larger beneficiaries while southernmost states have been largely bypassed by the effects of tariff liberalization. Those results can be explained not only in relation to the different endowments of the households, but also by the diverse effects on local prices that has resulted from Mexican trade liberalization.     

A Welfare Ranking of Multilateral Reductions in Real and Tariff Trade Barriers when Firms are Heterogenous

Trade liberalization comes about through reductions in various types of trade barriers. This paper introduces, apart from the customary real trade costs (i.e. iceberg and fixed export costs), two revenue generating trade barriers (i.e. an ad valorem tariff and a trade license) into a standard heterogeneous‐firms‐trade model with Pareto distributed productivities. We derive analytical welfare rankings of all four liberalization channels for an equal effect on two openness measures, for any trade cost level and while all four barriers are simultaneously present, i.e. for any initial equilibrium. We show that when openness is measured at retail prices, not border prices, the welfare rankings are sensitive to the degree of efficiency in revenue redistribution, e.g. the share of tariff revenues wasted on rent‐seeking activities. As a result, multilateral tariff reductions can switch from the least to the most preferred mode of liberalization. Among the other three barriers we establish a universal welfare ranking for any strictly positive level of revenue redistribution and for either measure of openness.     

Trade Liberalization and the Profitability of Mergers: a Global Analysis*

We analyze the effects of bilateral tariff reductions on the profitability of cost‐reducing horizontal mergers. Given Cournot competition in a two‐country world, for any positive tariff below a certain threshold, marginal trade liberalization is shown to encourage only those domestic mergers with sufficiently large cost‐savings and to discourage the rest. For tariffs close to, but smaller than, the prohibitive tariff, however, marginal trade liberalization necessarily encourages all domestic mergers. Moreover, we show that for a given level of cost‐savings, the impact of marginal trade liberalization may not reliably predict that of nonmarginal liberalization. Although at high tariffs, domestic mergers are shown to be unambiguously more profitable than cross‐border mergers, near free trade, mergers which yield the most cost‐savings become the most profitable. Thus, when comparing domestic and cross‐border mergers, trade liberalization encourages the type which yields the most cost‐savings.     

Technology Transfer and Merger Activities with Trade and Tariffs

In order to better understand the effects of globalization on merger incentives this paper considers a set of commonly observed mergers whereby a restructured target (with improved managerial or technical capability) continues to supply the market. In contrast to the market‐concentrating merger literature it finds that trade barriers tend to encourage mergers, including potentially welfare‐reducing, tariff‐jumping mergers. Multilateral trade liberalization, however, encourages welfare‐improving mergers. Hence, and despite the skepticism of regulatory authorities towards the existence of cost synergies as a consequence of mergers, this paper suggests that in order to assess the impact of trade liberalization under the WTO on merger incentives, and consequently on prices, quantities, and welfare, accurate information on ex ante cost differences and the transferability of managerial and technical techniques is required.     

Trade liberalization and institutional reforms1

The accession of Central and Eastern European (CEE) countries to the European Union (EU) is expected to lead to the new member countries becoming more like the older members, including in terms of trade. In this paper, we focus on two factors promoting CEE–EU trade integration: trade liberalization and institutional reforms. Measures of trade liberalization undertaken by both parties during the 1990s were very substantial, but did not always produce the expected upsurge of regional trade flows. Much less progress has been made in improving the functioning of CEE institutions (e.g., progress in the privatization process or in reducing corruption). Countries where most important changes at the institutional level occurred were also those that most increased their trade with the EU. Comparing the impact of these two factors, we find that improving institutions in CEE countries can generate as much trade as the removal of all tariff and non‐tariff barriers. The paper also addresses the issue of the presence of reversed causality between trade and institutions, and the pro‐trade effect of institutional similarity.     

Liberalizing Services Trade In APEC: A General Equilibrium Analysis with Imperfect Competition

The paper studies services-sector trade liberalization in the Asia–Pacific Economic Co-operation (APEC) Forum using a global, multicountry, multisector applied general equilibrium model with an imperfectly competitive service sector. Reducing the service sector's nontariff barriers is modeled by eliminating the possibility for oligopolistic firms to price-discriminate between client countries within APEC and lowering the fixed costs of the firms doing service exporting business. The results suggest that services trade liberalization reinforces existing sectoral trade balances. Increase in demand for intermediate services tends to reinforce rather than counteract the role of primary factors in determining sectoral comparative advantage. The western APEC members received the greatest welfare gains from services trade liberalization, while the developing economies gained more if only tariffs were eliminated.     

Trading Goods or Human Capital: The Gains and Losses from Economic Integration

In this paper, I quantify the economic consequences of liberalizing migration in the OECD and compare them with those of a hypothetical liberalization of trade across the OECD. First, I investigate the bilateral migration and trade agreements between the EU and Australia, Canada, Japan, Turkey, and the US. Second, I show that the overall impact of reducing all legal restrictions on migration in the OECD is moderate (1.6 percent in real GDP), while the gains from removing tariff and non‐tariff barriers to trade among all of the OECD economies are slightly lower (1.1 percent in real GDP). Finally, both the theoretical and numerical findings suggest that the direction of relationships between trade and migration (either substitutability or complementarity) depends on the type of shock imposed in the system.     

The impact of trade openness on labour force participation rate

In this article, we investigate the impact of trade openness on labour force participation rate. We use tariff rate as the main indicator of trade openness and we employ the number of regional trade agreements and the average tariff rate in the neighbours’ countries as instrumental variables to diminish the endogeneity problem of the tariff rate. We find that trade openness increases the participation rate which is economically and statistically significant. The results show that this correlation is robust under controlling for different variables and using various specifications. We find that 10 percentage point increase in tariff rate lowers the participation rate by 4–6 percentage point and this relationship is more severe in the long run. Finally, we show that changes in labour force population accounts for about 27% of changes in the unemployment rate following a trade liberalization.     

A Model of Trade Liberalization in Services*

This paper develops an intra‐industry service trade model taking into account important features of services. We find that service trade liberalization between identical economies is welfare enhancing when the pre‐trade domestic market liberalization is limited. This holds regardless of the degree of trade liberalization and of the mode of supply. However, if the pre‐trade environment is characterized by a free‐entry equilibrium, then service trade liberalization is not necessarily welfare improving. It is welfare enhancing if the trade liberalization is full and the mode of supply is cross‐border. The gain from trade in our model comes from the improvement in service quality—better matching between consumers’ ideal varieties and firms’ product specificity. The implications for the mode of supply in service trade are also explored.