Active labour market programmes and reservation wages: it is a hazard

This article uses a randomized controlled trial to show that positive earnings effects of a labour market programme can be caused by either a faster return to employment together with a lowering of reservation wages or a more moderate return to employment together with an increase in reservation wages. I model wages and unemployment duration simultaneously in a hazard framework allowing for unobserved heterogeneity.     

Reservation wage analysis of unemployed youths in Australia

This paper focuses on the analysis and structural estimation of the reservation wage function from a job search model using modified 2SLS and maximum-likelihood procedures with selectivity bias adjustments. The existing structural approaches to estimation are also reviewed. Empirical estimates of the determinants of the reservation wages of unemployed youths in Australia are obtained using data from the Australian National Longitudinal Survey. The results support most of the predictions of the job search model and indicate the presence of positive duration dependence in unemployment. These findings differ from the populaly held view of declining probability of escape from unemployment as its duration increases. There is also evidence which suggests that quantity constraints are important in determining unemployment in Australia.     

Youth reservation wages in Romania: are wage expectations realistic?

Romania has been experiencing difficulties in integrating young people into the labour market in recent years. Moreover, the problem of migration is extremely acute, young people being the most eager to leave the country. Considering also the demographics – declining birth-rates and an aging population, the risk of imbalance is extremely high. Thus, it is important to design strategies targeting young people, helping them find quality jobs so they contribute to the sustainable growth and development of the Romanian economy. In this context, the paper aims to identify the determinants of youth reservation wages and to analyse whether youth wage expectations are too high and prevent the acceptance of available jobs. The article contributes to the explanation of youth unemployment by analysing their behaviour, complementing the existing studies that focus mainly on macroeconomic and institutional factors. The results indicated that young unemployed people really have high reservation wages, expecting more than we estimated to earn on the market, considering their personal characteristics. The main factors influencing their reservation wage are: age, gender, education, intention to emigrate, duration of unemployment, and friends’ wages.     

Deriving natural rates of unemployment for sub-national regions: the case of Canadian provinces

In order to pursue informed stabilization policies, it is vital for policy-markers to have estimates of how much of the total unemployment rate can be classified as cyclical rather than natural unemployment. This paper describes a method for generating regional natural-rate estimates and applies this method to the case of Canadian provinces. Results indicate that unemployment insurance generosity and relative minimum wages play an important role in determining natural unemployment rates in Canadian provinces. One of the enduring characteristics of the Canadian labour market has been substantial and peresistent unemployment rate disparities across provinces. The results of this study indicate that these disparities are primarily explained by differences in provincial values of structural variables such as unemployment generosity and by differences in provincial sensitivities to these structural variables. A furher result is that variation in cyclical unemployment rates is substantially less in the traditionally high unemployment region of Atlantic Canada than it is in the traditionally low unemployment province of Ontario. This result implies that the most appropriate policies to reduce unemployment in Atlantic Canada are not regionally-applied expenditure policies but rather policies designed to reduce structural distortions in the provincial labour markets.     

The British youth labour market in crisis

The paper argues that the British youth labour market is in a crisis with employment falling, unemployment and long-term unemployment rising rapidly. In section one the paper reviews the evidence and, in particular, looks at alternative measures of unemployment duration. Section two discusses various explanations for the growth of youth unemployment and dismisses the view that it is due to the increase in relative wages of young people. It is argued that the youth labour market has several distinctive features that make it more sensitive to cyclical fluctuations. Section three takes a brief look at various policies to alleviate the problem. Section four concludes the paper stressing that a reflation of the economy is necessary to make a significant impact on youth unemployment.     

The Beveridge curve and labour market dynamics in Turkey

This article investigates the dynamics of unemployment and vacancy rates in Turkey during the period 1951 to 2008 by means of a Beveridge Curve (BC). The time-series analysis of unemployment and vacancies as well as two other relevant labour market variables, real wages and real labour productivity, strongly suggests inefficiency in the Turkish labour market. A stable long-run relationship between unemployment rate and vacancy rate is found for Turkey, that is, the existence of a negatively sloped BC is verified. The estimated Turkish BC reflects the structural problems and lack of flexibility in the labour market. The modified BC with real wages and labour productivity reveals that labour productivity has no significant effect on unemployment rate whereas wages have positive and significant effects on the same variable.     

Unobserved Heterogeneity,Exit Rates,and Re‐Employment Wages

Exit rates from unemployment and re‐employment wages decline over a period of unemployment, after controlling for worker observable characteristics. We study the role of unobserved heterogeneity in an economy with asymmetric information and directed search. We show that the unique equilibrium is separating and that skilled workers have more job opportunities and higher wages. The composition of the unemployed varies with the duration of unemployment, so average exit rates and wages fall with time. The separating equilibrium relies on performance‐related pay schemes and the ability of firms to commit to renting an input that is complementary to worker skills.     

Task-Based Segmentation of Rural Labour Contracts: Theory and Evidence

The paper examines the theoretical and empirical validity of task-based segmentation of rural labour contracts in seasonal agriculture. Regular labour is hired to perform tasks that are difficult to supervise for which casual labour is not incentive-compatible, and a regular wage above the reservation wage ensures no shirking in these tasks. It is argued that there is a hoarding cost of regular labour which is the cost when productivity is low during the slack season. This implies that minimization of supervision costs necessitates the employment of regular labour in certain tasks, but enhances hoarding cost. Results from the ICRISAT villages in India suggests that daily regular wages are lower than daily casual wages, adjusted by the probability of unemployment. Estimates of a tobit selection model suggest that (a) task characteristics are not significant even among the farms hiring regular labour, (b) larger employment-intensive farms tend to hire more regular labour irrespective of the choice of crop, and (c) there is a significant substitutability between regular and family labour. These results seem to question the very basis of task-based segmentation and strengthen the hoarding cost argument: farms hiring regular labour use it indiscriminately in both non-monitorable and monitorable tasks and, if possible, they may substitute family labour for regular labour with a view to minimizing hoarding cost.     

The Impact of Company Human Resource Policies on Social Skills: Implications for Training Sponsorship, Quit Rates and Efficiency Wages

The concept of a firm's human capital is reconsidered to include both the technical and the social skills of its workforce. Technical skills are defined by the ability to turn inputs into outputs, and measured by the productivity of unit labour effort. Social skills are defined by the propensity to behave in a manner conducive to the firm's objectives. In other words, social skills are constituted as the norm of effort contribution to which an individual assents, and are measured by observed motivation and behaviour. The existence for firms of a labour management function is proposed and supported, relating social skills to human resource policies. Implications for the labour market are that: (i) firms pay for general training and, at the same time, wages do not necessarily increase with training; (ii) human capital acquisition may not lead to an increase in quitting, even controlling for wages; (iii) human resource policies substitute for efficiency wages or for employee monitoring; and (iv) economies with high organisational commitment have low equilibrium unemployment rates.     

The disintegrating Canadian labour market? The extent of the market then and now

Abstract.  Analysis of real wages for three occupations in 13 Canadian cities for 1901–50 suggests Canada had a national labour market at least until 1950. However, analysis of real wages for 10 Canadian cities for 1971–2000 yields little evidence favouring integration of Canada's regional labour markets. The apparent lack of labour market integration reflects a weakness of an approach that assumes markets are in equilibrium. Unemployment rates after 1970 suggest that some regional markets may be characterized by excess labour supply. Analysis of relative provincial unemployment rates yields evidence consistent with local labour force adjustment to changing labour market conditions. JEL classification: E24, J61     

Heterogeneous determinants of local unemployment in Poland

We identify determinants of large disparities in local unemployment rates across Poland. Using an extensive panel data-set on the NUTS-4 level (i.e. the poviats level, or districts or counties level) we examine a wide range of determinants of local unemployment. Our research examines two groups of the determinants: one related to equilibrium theory and the other related to disequilibrium theory of local unemployment. We find that demographics, education and sectoral employment composition exert a stronger impact over rates of local unemployment than various demand factors. The impact of the determinants, while robust for outliers, is not homogeneous across Polish regions. In particular, in the most depressed local labour markets, skill improvement programmes do not appear to work and unemployment rates are relatively less responsive to investment. Our research suggests that there is no easy cure for local unemployment in Poland, but a few policies have the potential to slightly reduce existing disparities.     

Equilibrium unemployment, search behaviour and unemployment persistency

Unemployment persistency and high equilibrium unemployment isoften assumed to be caused by rigidities and low search efficiencyin the labour market, especially in European welfare stateswith generous income replacement schemes. These arguments aretested on data from Sweden, an old welfare state with a longperiod of full employment that has changed into a situationwith high unemployment. Data show a clear and very strong unemploymentduration dependency, but it is not possible to prove that thisis a result of low employability among the long-term unemployed.Getting a job is most of all associated with relative qualifications,recall expectations and local labour market conditions, andnot with search behaviour or high wage demands. It is arguedthat unemployment duration when unemployment is high can bestbe understood as a selection process rather than a search process,and that econometric estimations of equilibrium unemploymentare too pessimistic about the potential for an expansive economicpolicy. It is also argued that an active labour market policyis a more efficient compliment to such a policy than changesin income replacement ratios.     

Weight discrimination in the German labour market

We explore the effects of higher body mass index (BMI) or obesity on different labour market outcomes. We extend the present literature by investigating the effect of obesity on (i) promotion likelihood and (ii) unemployment duration, in addition to the effect on (iii) wages and (iv) probability of being employed. We find an obesity penalty on wages, employment likelihood, promotion likelihood and unemployment duration among females in Germany taking into account of endogeneity of BMI and sample selection. We are also able to identify an unexplained effect of obesity on wages, employment and promotion likelihood for females using decomposition techniques that can be attributed to weight discrimination.     

The importance of the distinction between long- and short-term unemployment in UK macroeconometric models

This paper examines the degree of support for distinct duration effects on wages across a variety of wage equations, and investigates their importance in full simulations with three large-scale UK macroeconometric models. The paper begins by highlighting deficiencies both in the way that existing models determine the duration structure of unemployment and in the specification of long-term unemployment in the wage equation. By constructing a single preferred wage equation we test hypotheses relating to duration effects and, although tests are not conclusive, find some support for the use of short-term unemployment in the wage equation. However, it is also shown that the response of wages to changes in unemployment is similar regardless of whether aggregate or short-term unemployment is used in the wage equation, although this does not hold when the duration structure of unemployment changes radically. By substituting revised equations into the models we show that these results carry over to full model simulations. Thus although neglect of duration effects may not be crucial in assessing the effectiveness of standard macro policy instruments, this is not likely to be true when evaluating policies which are deliberately targeted at the long-term unemployed.     

Labour Market Policies and Long-term Unemployment in a Flow Model of the Australian Labour Market

This paper develops a general equilibrium job matching model, which is used to assess the impact of active labour market policies, reductions in unemployment benefits and reductions in worker bargaining power on long-term unemployment and other key macro variables. The model is calibrated using Australian data. Simulation experiments are conducted through impulse response analysis. The simulations suggest that active labour market programs (ALMPs) targeted at the long-term unemployed have a small net impact and produce adverse spillover effects on short-term unemployment. Reducing the level of unemployment benefits relative to wages and worker bargaining power have more substantial effects on total and long-term unemployment and none of the spillover effects of ALMPs.     

Minimum wages and youth unemployment

This paper constructs a labor search model to explore the effects of minimum wages on youth unemployment. To capture the gradual decline in unemployment for young workers as they age, the standard search model is extended so that workers gain experience when employed. Experienced workers have higher average productivity and lower job finding and separation rates that match wage and worker flow data. In this environment, minimum wages can have large effects on unemployment because they interact with a worker's ability to gain job experience. The increase in minimum wages between 2007 and 2009 can account for a 0.8 percentage point increase in the steady state unemployment rate and a 2.8 percentage point increase in unemployment for 15–24 year old workers in the model parameterized to simulate outcomes of high school educated workers. Minimum wages can also help explain the high rates of youth unemployment in France compared to the United States.     

Optimal Redistributive Taxation in a Search Equilibrium Model

This paper characterizes optimal non-linear income taxation in an economy with a continuum of unobservable productivity levels and endogenous involuntary unemployment due to frictions in the labour markets. Redistributive taxation distorts labour demand and wages. Compared to their efficient values, gross wages, unemployment, and participation are lower. Average tax rates are increasing. Marginal tax rates are positive, even at the top. Finally, numerical simulations suggest that redistribution is much more important in our setting than in a comparable Mirrlees-type setting.     

Unemployment durations and local labour market conditions

ABSTRACT

Unemployment durations vary across local authority districts in the UK. We explore the extent to which this variation is explained by differences in local labour demand as opposed to composition, business cycle and regional effects. We use seventeen waves of the British Household Panel Survey to identify the determinants of the duration of unemployment spells. Once we adjust for individual-level, business cycle and regional controls, we do not find evidence that living in a local authority district with relatively high unemployment is associated with longer spells of unemployment. This indicates that differences in labour demand operate at larger geographic scales, such as between large regions. Our findings have implications for the design of policies to help high unemployment districts.     

Recurrent unemployment,welfare benefits and heterogeneity

The objective of this paper is to investigate the causes of the recurrences of individuals in unemployment during benefit periods. So as to attain this objective, we use administrative data from the Spanish Employment Agency to estimate a duration model with multiple spells that allows for unemployment state dependence through lagged unemployment duration in order to distinguish the heterogeneity and scarring effects. We find that an increase in the duration of previous unemployment benefit periods lengthens the expected duration of future unemployment benefit periods. True state dependence and heterogeneity, intensity of job search and local labour market conditions are among the elements that explain this unemployment state dependence.     

Employment Protection and Unemployment Benefits: On Technology Adoption and Job Creation in a Matching Model

We analyse the effects of different labour‐market policies (employment protection, unemployment benefits, and payroll taxes) on job creation and technology choices in a model where firms are matched with workers of different productivity and wages are determined by ex post bargaining. The model is characterized by two intertwined sources of inefficiency, namely a matching externality and a hold‐up externality associated with the bargaining strength of workers. The results depend on the relative importance of the two externalities and on worker risk aversion. “Flexicurity”, meaning low employment protection and generous unemployment insurance, can be optimal if workers are sufficiently risk‐averse and the hold‐up problem is relatively important.