Time-varying synchronization of European stock markets

We study intraday comovements among three developed (France, Germany, and the United Kingdom) and three emerging (the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland) European stock markets. When applying a Dynamic Conditional Correlation GARCH model to 5- min tick intraday stock price data (2003–2006), we find a strong correlation between the German and French markets and also between these two markets and the UK stock market. However, very little systematic positive correlation during a trading day can be detected between the developed and emerging stock markets, or within the emerging group itself. Hungary exhibits higher correlation with the developing markets and the emerging markets and its dynamics show an increasing trend; Poland and the Czech Republic produce less clear-cut results.     

Non-standard methods in the privatization strategies of the Czech Republic,Hungary and Poland1

The Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland followed different strategies in the use of non-standard methods of privatization. In regard to restitution, the Czech Republic carried out physical return of property, Hungary weakly implemented financial compensation and Poland has not yet approved a programme. Management and employee buyouts were eschewed in the Czech Republic, took the form of employee stock ownership plans in Hungary and were accomplished chiefly by lease-purchase in Poland. The Czech mass privatization programme distributed a considerable amount of joint-stock company shares free through voucher auctions in which citizens participated directly or through financial intermediaries. In contrast, the Polish programme provided citizens free shares in investment trusts that exercise corporate governance over operating companies and restrure them for divestiture. Hungary's programme, which offered people only interest-free loans to buy some shares in intial public offerings, was abandoned soon after its start.     

Energy price transmissions during extreme movements

This paper investigates price transmissions across European energy forward markets at distinct maturities during both normal times and extreme fluctuation periods. To this end, we rely on the traditional Granger causality test (in mean) and its multivariate extension in tail distribution developed by Candelon, Joëts, and Tokpavi (2013). Considering forward energy prices at 1, 10, 20, and 30 months, it turns out that no significant causality exists between markets at regular times whereas comovements are at play during extreme periods especially in bear markets. More precisely, energy prices comovements appear to be stronger at short horizons than at long horizons, testifying an eventual Samuelson mechanism in the maturity prices curve. Diversification strategies tend to be more efficient as maturity increases.     

The Relationship Between Economic Factors and Equity Markets in Central Europe

This paper investigates the possibility that newly-emerging equity markets in Central Europe exhibit semi-strong form efficiency such that no relationship exists between lagged values of changes in economic variables and changes in equity prices. We find that while there are connections between the real economy and equity market returns in Poland and Hungary, these links occur with lags, suggesting the possibility of profitable trading strategies based on public information and rejecting semi-strong efficiency. For the Czech Republic the situation is more complex. In recent periods, little connection exists between lagged economic variables and equity market returns. Although this finding might be viewed as consistent with semi-strong efficiency, in fact there is also little connection between current economic values and stock prices in the Czech Republic. Thus, instead of processing information efficiently, the Czech market appears to be entirely divorced from the real world. It is suggested that the difference in the current status of these markets may be due to the different methods by which they were created.     

Foreign News and Spillovers in Emerging European Stock Markets

We analyze foreign news and spillovers in the emerging EU stock markets (the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland). We employ high‐frequency five‐minute intraday data on stock market index returns and four classes of EU and US macroeconomic announcements during 2004–07. We account for the difference of each announcement from its market expectation and we jointly model the volatility of the returns accounting for intraday movements and day‐of‐the‐week effects. Our findings show that intraday interactions on the new EU markets are strongly determined by mature stock markets as well as the macroeconomic news originating thereby. We show that strong contemporaneous links across markets are present even after controlling for macroeconomic announcements. Finally, in terms of specific announcements, we are able to show the exact sources of macro news spillovers from the developed foreign markets to the three new EU markets under research.     

Would it have paid to be in the eurozone?

Giving up an independent monetary policy and a flexible exchange rate are the key aspects of joining a monetary union. In this paper we analyse how joining the euro area would have affected the Polish business cycle during the recent financial crisis. To this end we construct a small open economy DSGE model and estimate it for Poland and the euro area. Then we run a counterfactual simulation, assuming Poland's euro area accession in 1q2007. The results are striking — volatilities of GDP and inflation increase substantially. In particular, had Poland adopted the euro, GDP growth would have oscillated between − 6% and + 9% (− 9% to + 11% under more extreme assumptions) instead of between 1% and 7%. We conclude that during the analysed period independent monetary policy and, in particular, the flexible exchange rate played an important stabilizing role for the Polish economy.     

The impact of foreign macroeconomic news on financial markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland

In this paper, we investigate the effects of euro area and US macroeconomic news on financial markets in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland (CEEC-3) from 1999 to 2006. Using a GARCH model, we examine the impact of news on daily returns of 3-month interest rates, stock market indices, exchange rates versus the euro, and the US dollar. First, both US and European macroeconomic news has a significant impact on CEEC-3 financial markets. Second, the process of European integration is accompanied by an increasing importance of euro area news relative to US news. Third, there are country-specific differences: for example, the Czech stock market is relatively more affected by foreign news since the Copenhagen Summit in December 2002. In general, our results support the hypothesis of a deepening euro area influence on the CEEC-3 over time and a corresponding reduction in the relative importance of US shocks.     

Stock markets and industry growth: an Eastern European perspective

This paper reviews the recent stock market developments in Poland and the Czech Republic and provides a case-study insight into the direction of causality between stock market expansion and economic growth. It finds no evidence that the relative failure of the Czech security market affected the country's economy. It also reports that the largest equity issuers in Eastern Europe do not come from industries traditionally considered financially dependent.     

Causality between consumer price and producer price: Evidence from Mexico

We examine the relationship between two inflation indices, consumer price index (CPI) and producer price index (PPI) for Mexico, a case study country which has successfully implemented inflation targeting after the economic crisis and high inflationary situation in 1995. Since the causality running from PPI to CPI exemplifies the cost push nature of inflation and the opposite is the indicator of demand pull inflation, this analysis could provide significant policy implications. We contribute to the literature by decomposing the time–frequency relationship between CPI and PPI through continuous wavelet approach. Our results indicate a bidirectional relationship between CPI and PPI. In short periods (1 to 7 months scale) CPI is leading PPI, while for longer periods (8 to 32 months scale) PPI is the leading variable.     

Empirical evaluation of nominal convergence in Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary (CPH)

We estimate a four variable structural vector auto regression (SVAR) model of the Czech Republic, Poland and Hungary economies in order to evaluate the links between the instruments of monetary policy and inflation outcomes. We find that the linkages between the interest rates and price levels are weak. However, the exchange rate constitutes the most important channel of monetary policy transmission for Poland and Hungary. For the Czech Republic, the link between interest rate rise and price level is rather indirect.     

Public reaction to stock market volatility: evidence from the ATUS

How does the public react to changes in the stock market? We know from the existing body of research that sentiment can predict future stock-market movements. However, do market movements affect sentiment? This article addresses these questions by testing whether market movements precede changes in the emotional well-being of the general public. Using Granger causality analysis, we compare how market movements affect public well-being during periods of increased (2010) and decreased (2012) volatility. The results show that 30-day-lagged returns are associated positively and significantly with the public’s emotional well-being, and that this effect is stronger during periods of increased volatility. The results also show that this effect may persist for up to 120 days.     

Total factor productivity growth in Central and Eastern Europe before,during and after the global financial crisis

This article presents growth accounting results for 11 EU countries from Central and Eastern Europe for the years 1996–2016. Its contributions include the estimation of new capital stock series and adjustment for the utilisation of capital stock. Before the crisis, growth in total factor productivity (TFP) was the main contributor to output growth in Slovenia, Hungary and Slovakia, while capital deepening was more important in the Czech Republic, Croatia and Poland. During the global financial crisis the contributions of TFP and capital growth differed markedly across the countries, reflecting the very diverse dynamics of the crisis. After the crisis the contribution of TFP growth has been negligible in all of the sample countries coinciding with generally weak output growth. The results are generally robust to changes in estimation methods and parametrisations, but some assumptions regarding the construction of the capital stock series are critical for the results.     

Does investor sentiment dynamically impact stock returns from different investor horizons? Evidence from the US stock market using a multi-scale method

This article uses the investor sentiment index to investigate the Granger causality between investor sentiment and stock returns for the US economy using a multi-scale method. To focus on the local analysis of different investor horizons, bivariate empirical mode decomposition is used to decompose time series of investor sentiment and stock returns at different timescales. We employ the linear and nonlinear integrated Granger causality method to examine the causal relationship of decomposed series on similar timescales. The results indicate both strong bilateral linear and nonlinear causality between longer-term investor sentiment and stock returns. However, there is no strong evidence for correlation of stock returns and investor sentiment on shorter timescales.     

Does tourism development promote economic growth in transition countries? A panel data analysis

This study examines causal relationships between tourism spending and economic growth in 10 transition countries for the period 1988–2011. Panel causality analysis, which accounts for dependency and heterogeneity across countries, is used herein. Our empirical results support the evidence on the direction of causality, and are consistent with the neutrality hypothesis for 3 of these 10 transition countries (i.e. Bulgaria, Romania and Slovenia). The growth hypothesis holds for Cyprus, Latvia and Slovakia while reverse relationships were found for the Czech Republic and Poland. The feedback hypothesis also holds for Estonia and Hungary. Our empirical findings provide important policy implications for the 10 transition countries being studied.     

Natural gas prices and stock prices: Evidence from EU-15 countries

This study investigates the long-run relationship between natural gas prices and stock prices by using the Johansen and Juselius cointegration test and error–correction based Granger causality models for the EU-15 countries. We employ quarterly data covering the period from 1990:1 to 2008:1. Empirical findings suggest that there is a unique long-term equilibrium relationship between natural gas prices, industrial production and stock prices in Austria, Denmark, Finland, Germany and Luxembourg. However, no relationship is found between these variables in the other ten EU-15 countries. Although we detect a significant long-run relationship between stock prices and natural gas prices, Granger causality test results imply an indirect Granger causal relationship between these two variables. In addition, we investigate the Granger causal relationship between stock returns, industrial production growth and natural gas price increase for Austria, Denmark, Finland, Germany and Luxembourg. As a result, increase in natural gas prices seem to impact industrial production growth at the first place. In turn, industrial production growth appears to affect stock returns.     

Dynamic linkages between Asian stock prices and exchange rates: new evidence from causality in quantiles

This article applies the Granger causality test in quantiles to investigate causal relations between stock returns and exchange rate changes for nine Asian markets over the period 1 January 1997 to 16 August 2010. Our empirical results indicate that the quantile causal relations vary across different quantiles and different periods. Although the causal effects of exchange rate changes on stock returns (or stock returns on exchange rate changes) are heterogeneous across quantiles, the overall evidence suggests that most stock and foreign exchange markets are negatively correlated. The result shows that there are more bidirectional causal relations in accordance with this method than the conventional least square (LS) estimation. The symmetry of these quantile causal effects (the ‘averaging effect’) helps to explain why conventional LS method usually obtains an insignificant result of causality.     

International stock return predictability: Is the role of U.S. time-varying?

This study investigates the predictability of 11 industrialized stock returns with emphasis on the role of U.S. returns. Using monthly data spanning 1980:2–2014:12, we show that there exist multiple structural breaks and nonlinearities in the data. Therefore, we employ methods that are capable of accounting for these and at the same time date stamping the periods of causal relationship between the U.S. returns and those of the other countries. First we implement a subsample analysis which relies on the set of models, data set and sample range as in Rapach et al. (J Finance LXVIII(4):1633–1662, 2013). Our results show that while the U.S. returns played a strong predictive role based on the OLS pairwise Granger causality predictive regression and news-diffusion models, its role based on the adaptive elastic net model is weak. Second, we implement our preferred model: a bootstrap rolling window approach using our newly updated data on stock returns for each countries, and find that U.S. stock return has significant predictive ability for all the countries at certain sub-periods. Given these results, it would be misleading to rely on results based on constant-parameter linear models that assume that the relationship between the U.S. returns and those of other industrialized countries are permanent, since the relationship is, in fact, time-varying, and holds only at specific periods.     

The long-term effects of job search requirements: Evidence from the UK JSA reform

This paper investigates long-term returns from unemployment compensation, exploiting variation from the UK JSA reform of 1996, which implied a major increase in job search requirements for eligibility and in the related administrative hurdle. Search theory predicts that such changes should raise the proportion of nonclaimant nonemployed, with consequences on search effort and labor market attachment, and lower the reservation wage of the unemployed, with negative effects on post-unemployment wages. I test these ideas on longitudinal data from social security records (LLMDB). Using a difference in differences approach, I find that individuals who start an unemployment spell soon after JSA introduction, as opposed to 6 months earlier, are 2.5–3% more likely to move from unemployment into Incapacity Benefits spells, and 4–5% less likely to have positive earnings in the following year. This latter employment effect only vanishes 4 years after the initial unemployment shock. Also, annual earnings for the treated individuals are lower than for the non-treated. These results suggest that while tighter search requirements were successful in moving individuals off unemployment benefits, they were not successful in moving them onto stable or better jobs, with fairly long-lasting unintended consequences on a number of labor market outcomes.     

Lower coverage but stronger unions? Institutional changes and union wage premia in Central Europe

In this paper we use the national samples from the European Structure of Earnings Survey (ESES) to analyze the evolution of the wage premium of firm- and industry-level agreements in the Czech Republic, Hungary, and Poland (the CE3) around the time of their accession to the EU. We find that despite a generalized reduction in union coverage in these countries, the union wage premium after accession to the EU became bigger and statistically more significant for Poland and Hungary, particularly for industry-level agreements. We interpret these findings in terms of the institutional reforms that occurred in the CE3 between 2002 and 2006. These reforms, which were prompted by the EU Commission's requirements for EU accession, increased the social partners' ability to bargain and enforce wage agreements, and made industry-level unions more effective in guaranteeing the protections provided by labor standards. Results are less conclusive for the Czech Republic, probably due to factors that attenuate the effect of bargaining coverage upon wages, e.g. a smaller effect of institutional reforms, a greater use of mandatory extension mechanisms, the more radical firm restructuring during transition in that country.     

How working time reduction affects jobs and wages

In 1996, by law the maximum standard workweek in Portugal was reduced from 44 h to 40 h. We find that for workers involved this change reduced the job separation rate and increased hourly wages, keeping monthly earnings approximately constant. The working hours reduction also affected workers working less than 40 h per week; they were more likely to lose their job.