Capital controls on inflows, exchange rate volatility and external vulnerability

We use high frequency data and a new econometric approach to evaluate the effectiveness of controls on capital inflows. We focus on Chile's experience during the 1990s, and investigate whether controls on capital inflows reduced Chile's vulnerability to external shocks. We recognize that changes in the controls will affect the way in which different macro variables relate to each other. In particular, we consider the case where controls co-exist with an exchange rate band aimed at managing the nominal exchange rate. We develop a methodology to deal explicitly with the interaction between these two policies. The main findings may be summarized as follows: (a) a tightening of capital controls on inflows depreciates the exchange rate and (b), we find that a tightening of capital controls increases the unconditional volatility of the exchange rate, but makes it less sensitive to external shocks.     

So you want to delight your customers: The perils of ignoring heterogeneity in customer evaluations of discretionary preferential treatments

Many firms assume that customers like to feel special and to receive discretionary preferential treatments (DPT). This research argues that the reality is more complicated: the same preferential treatment may delight one customer but enrage or embarrass another. To help companies align their DPT with their customers' preferences, this article identifies four dimensions along which consumers positively or negatively evaluate DPT: justification, imposition, visibility, and surprise. This article then introduces customer heterogeneity in the form of two individual traits that moderate DPT evaluations. Through two studies, the article shows that distinction seekers prefer visible rewards that impose on other customers, but negotiators prefer unjustified, non-surprising privileges. Finally, by tying consumer preferences to two readily available variables (age and gender), this article concludes with a set of practical guidelines for the companies that hope to align their DPT strategy with customer profiles.     

Exchange rate forecasting, order flow and macroeconomic information

This paper adds to the research efforts that aim to bridge the divide between macro and micro approaches to exchange rate economics by examining the linkages between exchange rate movements, order flow and expectations of macroeconomic variables. The basic hypothesis tested is that if order flow reflects heterogeneous expectations about macroeconomic fundamentals, and currency markets learn about the state of the economy gradually, then order flow can have both explanatory and forecasting power for exchange rates. Using one year of high frequency data collected via a live feed from Reuters for three major exchange rates, we find that: i) order flow is intimately related to a broad set of current and expected macroeconomic fundamentals; ii) more importantly, order flow is a powerful predictor of daily movements in exchange rates in an out-of-sample exercise, on the basis of economic value criteria such as Sharpe ratios and performance fees implied by utility calculations.     

The employment effects of tariffs under a free exchange rate regime: A monetary approach

This paper develops a ‘monetary’ approach for the analysis of tariff policy under a free (flexible) exchange rate regime. The paper concludes that the imposition of a tariff unambiguously causes a deterioration in the level of employment under free rates even without a Laursen-Metzler effect on saving.     

Capital-flow management measures: What are they good for?

Are capital controls and macroprudential measures related to international exposures successful in achieving their objectives? Assessing their effectiveness is complicated by selection bias; countries which change their capital-flow management measures (CFMs) often share specific characteristics and are responding to changes in variables that the CFMs are intended to influence. This paper addresses these challenges by using a propensity-score matching methodology. We also create a new database with detailed information on weekly changes in controls on capital inflows, capital outflows, and macroprudential measures related to international transactions from 2009 to 2011 for 60 countries. Results show that these macroprudential measures can significantly reduce some measures of financial fragility. Most CFMs do not significantly affect other key targets, however, such as exchange rates, capital flows, interest-rate differentials, inflation, equity indices, and different volatilities. One exception is that removing controls on capital outflows may reduce real exchange rate appreciation. Therefore, certain CFMs can be effective in accomplishing specific goals—but most popular measures are not “good for” accomplishing their stated aims.     

Did foreign exchange holding influence growth performance during the global financial crisis?

In a context of increased foreign exchange reserves holding from emerging and developing countries, this paper investigates the diminishing return of reserves holding assumption over the most severe phase of the global financial crisis (2008Q1–2010Q4). Relying on a Panel Smooth Transition Regression model, we highlight the differential effect of the accumulation of foreign exchange reserves for a set of financial vulnerabilities variables. In a specific manner, although reserves accumulation is effective above a critical threshold to cope with vulnerabilities related to the financial channel, we show that it becomes less effective beyond a certain threshold for domestic bank vulnerabilities. Our results are robust to alternative specifications.     

Understanding bilateral exchange rate volatility

This paper develops an empirical model of bilateral exchange rate volatility. We conjecture that for developing economies, external financial liabilities have an important effect on desired bilateral exchange rate volatility, above and beyond the standard optimal currency area (OCA) factors. By contrast, industrial countries do not face the same set of constraints in international financial markets. In our theoretical model, external debt tightens financial constraints and reduces the efficiency of the exchange rate in responding to external shocks. We go on to explore the determinants of bilateral exchange rate volatility in a broad cross section of countries. For developing economies, bilateral exchange rate volatility (relative to creditor countries) is strongly negatively affected by the stock of external debt. For industrial countries however, OCA variables appear more important and external debt is generally not significant in explaining bilateral exchange rate volatility.     

The Rise of US Anti‐dumping Activity in Historical Perspective

Empirical studies of anti‐dumping activity focus almost exclusively on the period since 1980. This paper puts recent US anti‐dumping experience in historical context by studying the determinants of annual case filings over the past half century. The conventional view that few anti‐dumping cases existed prior to 1980 is not correct, although most did not result in the imposition of duties. The increased number of cases in recent decades largely reflects petitions that target multiple‐source countries; the number of imported products involved has actually fallen since the mid‐1980s. The annual number of anti‐dumping cases is influenced by the unemployment rate, the exchange rate, import penetration (closely related to the decline in average tariffs), and changes in the anti‐dumping law and its enforcement in the early 1980s.     

Reassessing the Costs and Benefits of Imposing Capital Controls: The Case of Chile (1991–98)

ABSTRACT

This paper aims to highlight some of the less-mentioned costs and benefits of imposing capital controls (in particular, on inflows) in lower income countries (LICs). The impact of controls on the effectiveness of conventional policy tools, as well as the limitations of the latter, are studied in the context of Chile's imposition of unremunerated reserve requirements (URRs) in the early 1990s. Then, using better data and a slightly different specification from earlier studies, an error-correction model for Chile's real exchange rate (RER) is set up with a view to assessing controls' impact thereon. The key finding, contrary to earlier studies, is that controls did depreciate the real exchange rate in the short-run. At the same time, an enhanced controls variable (“the effective” tax implied by the reserve requirement, a la Gallego et al., 1999) was seen to possess an inverse relationship with the equilibrium real exchange rate, suggesting the possibility of controls having facilitated an equilibrium RER appreciation in the long-run.

RESUMEN. El propósito de este documento es esclarecer en cierta medida algunos de los costos beneficios mencionados con menor frecuencia, resultantes de la imposición de controles de capital (especialmente sobre los flujos de entrada de capital) en países con menor renta (LICs–lower income countries). El impacto de los controles sobre la efectividad de las herramientas inherentes a las políticas convencionales, así como la limitación de los últimos han sido estudiados en el contexto de la imposición chilena sobre las exigencias establecidas para las reservas no remuneradas (URRs) a comienzo de los años 1990s. En ese entonces, utilizando una fuente de datos más apropiada y especificaciones levemente distintas a las usadas en estudios anteriores, elaboramos un modelo de error-corrección para la tasa real cambiaria chilena (RER–real exchange rate), con el objeto de evaluar el impacto ejercido por los controles. El descubrimiento clave, contrariamente a lo encontrado en los estudios anteriores, muestra una variable de control mejorada (el impuesto “efectivo” inherente a las exigencias de la reserva, a la Gallego et al., 1999), que se observó tenía una relación con el equilibrio de la tasa cambiaria real, sugiriendo por ende que, a largo plazo, existía la posibilidad de que los controles facilitasen una apreciación RER equilibrada.

RESUMO. Este estudo pretende destacar alguns dos custos e benefícios, pouco divulgados, sobre o controle da imposição de capital (particularmente, das entradas) nos países de baixa renda (LICs). O impacto do controle na eficácia dos instrumentos políticos convencionais bem como as limitações destes instrumentos são estudados no contexto da imposição do Chile dos depósitos compulsórios não remunerados (URRs), no início dos anos 90. Então, utilizando dados melhores e uma especificação um pouco diferente de estudos anteriores, um modelo de correção de erros para a taxa de câmbio real do Chile (RER) é estipulada, visando uma avaliação do impacto do controle, a partir deste momento. A descoberta principal, contrária aos primeiros estudos, é que o controle, definitivamente, deprecia a taxa de câmbio real a curto prazo. Ao mesmo tempo, uma variável de controle aumentada (um imposto “efetivo” implícito no depósito compulsório, conforme Gallego et al., 1999) parece conter uma relação contrária à taxa de câmbio real de equilíbrio, sugerindo a pos-sibilidade de que o controle tenha facilitado uma estimativa do equilíbrio da RER a longo prazo.     

Foreign exchange market liberalization and the international diversification of borrowing by Italian firms

In this article we try to assess the relative importance of real and financial determinants in firm's foreign currency borrowing by extending a model earlier developed by Kawai. We use this framework to examine the behavior of Italian firms during the 1980s. The financial components of firm's decisions are studied by means of a repeated mean-variance portfolio model based on ex ante expectation. We show that (a) the invoice currencies seem to be a good indicator of firm's real exchange risk; and (b) even at times of capital controls, corporate debt policy was affected by financial variables. The latter will become increasingly important as European financial integration moves on.     

Climate Negotiations,EITE Industries,and the WTO: Facing the Conflicts

Though developed countries have contributed the lion's share of greenhouse gases to date, developing countries are rapidly catching up – and seem unlikely to adopt meaningful GHG controls in the near term. This prospect concerns major developed countries, since their own GHG controls could cause carbon-intensive production to migrate to unregulated countries, a phenomenon called “carbon leakage.” This article surveys progress in international negotiations to date. It argues that, given the slow pace of efforts to create a global GHG control framework, carbon tariffs and other border measures are likely to be invoked as an alternative means of preventing carbon leakage. The article illustrates the legal and economic pitfalls of border adjustments and urges major emitting countries to suspend the imposition of border measures for a limited time while negotiating a “Code of Good Practice” to guide their trade-related climate measures going forward. The Code that we describe would constrain the scope of border measures and sharply limit their negative consequences.     

Third-country effects on the exchange rate

Predictive regressions for bilateral exchange rates are typically run on variables from the associated bilateral pairs of countries. These regressions characteristically have low explanatory power, which leaves room for an omitted variables interpretation. We test whether these omitted variables are from third-countries. When third-country macro factors are added to bilateral exchange rate regressions, they enter significantly and increase the adjusted R². A three-country exchange rate model illustrates potential channels for third-country spillovers to affect the bilateral rate.     

Leading indicators of currency crises for emerging countries

This study identifies common features of currency crises in 15 emerging countries using quarterly data over the period 1980–1998. We use Fisher's linear discriminant analysis in order to build an early-warning system. Capital control and contagion dummies, as well as an indicator for problems in the banking sector, are included in the set of explanatory variables; the overvaluation of currencies is assessed by real effective exchange rates. We propose a ‘balancing’ approach to deal with the trade-off between good classifications and false alarms. The model yields a relatively good—and unbiased—ratio of correct predictions: four out of five crises are correctly predicted and only one out of five non-crises is predicted as a crisis.     

浅议汇率的本质

在现今经济全球化趋势下,汇率成了各经济体的重要基础变量,外汇汇率和人们的日常生活联系紧密。详细分析汇率的本质,汇率实为一个历史范畴,受国际经济交往发展、本位货币演变以及技术进步的影响;汇率又是一种资产价格;为了维持经济的快速发展,保证社会的和谐稳定,汇率还是开放经济类型国家的一种重要的政策变量。     

Causes of nonlinearities in low-order models of the real exchange rate

This paper investigates the extent to which modern DSGE models, which feature local currency pricing, home bias, nontraded goods, and incomplete markets, can generate nonlinear real exchange rate dynamics that are consistent with those found in the time series literature using data from the current floating period. Our key findings are as follows. First, if the true model can be appropriately characterized as a set of linear equations, then linearity tests that utilize univariate autoregressions of the real exchange rate suffer from an omitted variables problem, which leads them to overestimate the true incidence of nonlinearity. Consequently, studies that fail to control for this problem may spuriously find evidence of nonlinearities in the data, despite the fact that the data generating process may be linear. Second, we propose a strategy that can largely eliminate this distortion. Finally, we find that DSGE models solved using higher order approximations are capable of generating true structural nonlinearities in real exchange rates both asymptotically and in short samples.     

MULTIVARIATE RISK MEASURES: A CONSTRUCTIVE APPROACH BASED ON SELECTIONS

Since risky positions in multivariate portfolios can be offset by various choices of capital requirements that depend on the exchange rules and related transaction costs, it is natural to assume that the risk measures of random vectors are set‐valued. Furthermore, it is reasonable to include the exchange rules in the argument of the risk measure and so consider risk measures of set‐valued portfolios. This situation includes the classical Kabanov's transaction costs model, where the set‐valued portfolio is given by the sum of a random vector and an exchange cone, but also a number of further cases of additional liquidity constraints. We suggest a definition of the risk measure based on calling a set‐valued portfolio acceptable if it possesses a selection with all individually acceptable marginals. The obtained selection risk measure is coherent (or convex), law invariant, and has values being upper convex closed sets. We describe the dual representation of the selection risk measure and suggest efficient ways of approximating it from below and from above. In the case of Kabanov's exchange cone model, it is shown how the selection risk measure relates to the set‐valued risk measures considered by Kulikov (2008, Theory Probab. Appl. 52, 614–635), Hamel and Heyde (2010, SIAM J. Financ. Math. 1, 66–95), and Hamel, Heyde, and Rudloff (2013, Math. Financ. Econ. 5, 1–28).     

不完全汇率传递:理论解释及其在贸易保护中的作用

汇率是开放经济环境下的核心工具变量,汇率变动能在多大程度上引起商品相对价格变动是汇率研究的一个重要组成部分。近年来,随着国际贸易壁垒的逐渐多样化以及反倾销、保障措施使用逐渐的广泛,对汇率传递的研究也逐渐渗透到贸易保护政策上来,为此弄清汇率不完全价格传递现象存在的原因,从而发挥汇率传递在贸易保护中的作用。     

The impact of the new protectionist stance in US trade policy on selected German companies in Mexico

ABSTRACT

Previous studies on the impact of the new protectionist stance of the United States have focused mainly on the imposition of the controversial border tax. This research advances the understanding of the possible impacts of the tightening of the rules of origin and the imposition of the most-favored nation tariffs on manufacturing companies. The findings show a negative impact from the protectionist measures on businesses by increasing costs per unit and decreasing the gross margin. The results suggest that those additional costs could be passed on to the final buyers, raising the price level by more than previously assumed.     

Controls as a Sharable Knowledge Commodity: An Architecture for Open Exchange

The world seems to be getting more dangerous: terrorists; fraudulent corporations; money laundering; hurricanes; pandemics. Governments and organizations respond with a flurry of new controls. In some cases these are centrally mandated (e.g. Sarbanes Oxley). In others, organizations struggle to find their own control solutions. Seldom, however, do organizations work together as a community of common interests to share solutions to their control threats. In this paper we consider how an open exchange of control solutions might be supported electronically. We assume a community of similar organizations that wish to exchange detailed knowledge about organizational control techniques. These might be non-competing institutions, such as libraries, customs agencies, and even universities; or, they may in fact be competing organizations, wishing to exchange control solutions in dimensions where they do not compete – e.g. the airlines exchanging best practice about safety and security. The main point is to propose an information technology architecture that permits a view of organizational controls as shareable, exchangeable knowledge commodities.     

Toward a contingency theory of CRM adoption

Acknowledging the paucity of research on customers who are the targets of customer relationship management (CRM) efforts, this paper presents a contingency theory framework and set of research propositions suggesting that successful CRM adoption is contingent on a variety of contextual factors that influence value exchange in B2B channel relationships. Grounded in theoretical perspectives on the customer selection process, channel governance, transaction costs, power distribution in marketing channels, and dynamic capabilities, the authors identify five broad categories of variables potentially important in studying CRM adoption and directly affecting CRM success/failure.