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Josephine Adekola Denis Fischbacher-Smith Moira Fischbacher-Smith 《Journal of Risk Research》2013,16(10):1294-1308
AbstractThis paper presents a detailed account of policy-making in a contemporary risk communication arena, where strong power dynamics are at play that have hitherto lacked theoretical analysis and empirical validation. Specifically, it expands on the understanding of how public health policy decisions are made when there is a weak evidential base and where multiple interpretations, power dynamics and values are brought to bear on issues of risk and uncertainty. The aim of the paper is to understand the role that power and expertise play in shaping public health risk communication within policy-related debates. By drawing on insight from a range of literatures, the paper argues that there several interacting factors that shape how a particular narrative gains prominence within a wider set of perspectives and how the arguments and findings associated with that perspective become amplified within the context of policy choices. These findings are conceptualised into a new model – a policy evaluation risk communication (PERC) framework – and are then tested using the Electronic cigarette debate as a case study. 相似文献
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Sergio Beretta 《The International Journal of Accounting》2004,39(3):265-288
In this paper, we propose a framework for the analysis of risk communication and an index to measure the quality of risk disclosure. Mainstream literature on voluntary disclosure has emphasized that quantity can be used as a sound proxy for quality. We contend that, in the analysis of the disclosure of risks made by public companies, attention has to be paid not only to how much is disclosed but also to what is disclosed and how.We apply the framework to a sample of nonfinancial companies listed in the ordinary market on the Italian Stock Exchange. To verify that the framework and synthetic index are not influenced by the two factors recognized in the literature as the most powerful drivers of disclosure behavior for listed companies, we use an OLS model. The regression shows that the index of disclosure quantity is not influenced either by size or industry. Thus, the synthetic measure can be used to rank the quality of the disclosure of risks. 相似文献
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AbstractPrior to the 2009?L’Aquila event, earthquake forecasting and early warning research focused specifically on earthquakes as the crisis events. Although this is still true, the manslaughter convictions of six earthquake scientists and one public official for failed risk communication in 2009 served as a catalyst for expanding these goals to also intentionally examine the challenges of communicating earthquake risk with non-scientific during the pre-crisis stage of the earthquake lifecycle. The Crisis Emergency Risk Communication (CERC) Model developed by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) provides specific guidelines for doing so. Thus, based on a thematic analysis of interviews with 21 earthquake scientists, this study identifies what those responsible for communicating regularly about earthquake risk see as major communication challenges and the extent to which the CERC model recommendations are useful for addressing them. Results suggest that earthquake risk science communicators are most effective when they translate scientific and technical information simply, respond to competing messages, capitalize on relevant popular culture references, employ risk communication campaigns during ‘quiet periods’, and acknowledge uncertainty. These findings have implications not only for earthquake science risk communicators, but also for expanding the pre-crisis stage best practices proposed in the Crisis Emergency Risk Communication (CERC) model. Essentially, this study reveals that soliciting and responding to feedback in the pre-crisis stage could help spokespersons clarify or correct any messages that are perceived by audiences as unclear or are simply not accurate. Doing so may improve risk communication effectiveness not only during the pre-crisis stage but also throughout the earthquake crisis lifecycle. 相似文献
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Christine Skubisz 《Journal of Risk Research》2013,16(10):1224-1238
AbstractNon-experts, including college administrators, professors, and students are often faced with risk assessment decisions on campus. Despite this fact, there are few accepted professional standards for presenting statistical risk and far fewer recommendations for the communication of violence risk. Existing systematic reviews are both incomplete and limited in scope and more troubling are the contradictory conclusions and competing recommendations for the communication of information that is essential to decision-making. In this article, three directions in the violence risk communication literature were given attention. First, non-experts were asked to make risk estimates using information from an expert source. Second, this project moves research attention to an important domain, campus violence. Finally, multiple outcome variables were assessed in an effort to extend the scope of research beyond Bayesian reasoning. Measured outcomes included: risk judgments, linguistic features, and affective processing as put forth by the affective processing theories. When the effect of estimating or communicating risk as a probability was compared to a frequency: frequency evidence was rated as less confusing and easier to understand. 相似文献
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Bethany Saxon Sarah Bauerle Bass Thomas Wright Jessie Panick 《Journal of Risk Research》2013,16(10):1309-1322
AbstractThe 2014 West African Ebola outbreak was the first to be actively covered by the US media because of cases treated on US soil. Despite little chance of widespread contagion, US media termed Ebola ‘apocalyptic.’ The objective of this study was to understand how information about Ebola provided to the public through US newspapers was presented to assess how risk communication principles were or were not used. We conducted a systematic content analysis using a purposive sample of 75 news articles published in five US newspapers between 1 August and 31 October 2014. The articles were analyzed using the Dudo et al. framework, based on the extended parallel process model, and assessed for self-efficacy information, personal risk conceptualization (risk magnitude and risk comparison information), and content framing. We found that while coverage was mostly factual, it inconsistently presented quality risk-related information, and rarely used contextual information that would help readers accurately assess risk. Few articles also provided usable, actionable directives, a tenet of good crisis communication that enhances self-efficacy and lowers risk perception. Results inform how news coverage can affect public risk perception of a new, ‘exotic’ pathogen, and how in the case of Ebola US newspapers may have contributed to the inflated risk perception observed in the US population, and may support better, more comprehensive media response during likely future outbreaks. 相似文献
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Christoph Boehmert Frederik Freudenstein Peter Wiedemann 《Journal of Risk Research》2020,23(5):571-597
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Rebecca Hess Vivianne H.M. Visschers Michael Siegrist Carmen Keller 《Journal of Risk Research》2013,16(1):47-61
This study aims to evaluate directly how a graphical risk ladder is perceived and how this perception is related to people’s subjective numeracy. Gaze durations and frequencies were used to examine visual attention. Participants (N = 47) appeared to focus on the target risk information, whereas referential information was less attended. Subjective numeracy was negatively correlated with total watching time and the absolute number of gaze events. Results suggest that participants with low subjective numeracy have more difficulty in comprehending the graph, and that they process the graphical information less efficiently than the participants with high subjective numeracy. In addition, the position of referential risks on risk ladders could influence people’s risk perception. Based on these findings, we provide some implications for the design of risk communication graphs and for the use of graphs in informing persons with low subjective numeracy about risks. 相似文献
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The concepts of risk and risk management have received considerable attention lately, but this has yet to be reflected in empirical research examining firms’ risk reporting practices. This study seeks to address this gap in the literature and explores risk disclosures within a sample of 79 UK company annual reports using content analysis. A significant association is found between the number of risk disclosures and company size. Similarly a significant association is found between the number of risk disclosures and level of environmental risk as measured by Innovest EcoValue`21™ Ratings. However, no association is found between the number of risk disclosures and five other measures of risk: gearing ratio, asset cover, quiscore, book to market value of equity and beta factor. The paper also discusses the nature of the risk disclosures made by the sample companies specifically examining their time orientation, whether they are monetarily quantified and if good or bad risk news is disclosed. It was uncommon to find monetary assessments of risk information, but companies did exhibit a willingness to disclose forward-looking risk information. Overall the dominance of statements of general risk management policy and a lack of coherence in the risk narratives implies that a risk information gap exists and consequently stakeholders are unable to adequately assess the risk profile of a company. 相似文献
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通过构建我国产险公司资产风险资本额的测算模型,比较V水估计方法后选择Delta—EWMA方法估算资产风险系数,对产险公司的实证分析结果表明：股票、证券投资基金、货币市场投资暴露的风险大,其资产风险资本额比例远高于其资产持有量比例。 相似文献
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John Fellenor Julie Barnett Clive Potter Julie Urquhart J.D. Mumford C.P. Quine 《Journal of Risk Research》2013,16(10):1163-1183
It has long been recognised that the traditional media play a key role in representing risk and are a significant source of information which can shape how people perceive and respond to hazard events. Early work utilising the social amplification of risk framework (SARF) sought to understand the discrepancy between expert and lay perceptions of risk and patterns of risk intensification and attenuation with reference to the media. However, the advent of Web 2.0 challenges traditional models of communication. To date there has been limited consideration of social media within the SARF and its role in mediating processes of risk perception and communication. Against this backdrop, we focus on the social media platform Twitter to consider the social amplification of risk in relation to ash dieback disease (Hymenoscyphus fraxineus); a tree health issue that attracted intense media attention when it was first identified in the UK in 2012. We present an empirical analysis of 25,600 tweets in order to explore what people were saying about ash dieback on Twitter, who was talking about it and how they talked about it. Our discussion outlines the themes around which talk about ash dieback was orientated, the significance of users’ environmental ‘affiliations’ and the role of including links (URLs) to traditional media coverage. We utilise the notion of ‘piggybacking’ to demonstrate how information is customised in line with group/individual identities and interests and introduce the concept of the ‘frame fragment’ to illustrate how information is selected and moved around Twitter emphasising certain features of the messages. The paper affords a detailed consideration of the way in which people and organisations simultaneously appropriate, construct and pass on risk-relevant information. A conclusion is that social media has the potential to transform the media landscape within which the SARF was originally conceived, presenting renewed challenges for risk communication. 相似文献
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随着习近平总书记提出我国要尽早实现“碳达峰、碳中和”目标,中央经济工作会议也将做好“碳达峰、碳中和”列为2021年重点工作之一。央行逐步将气候变化相关风险纳入宏观审慎政策框架中,同时鼓励金融机构评估、管理其环境和气候风险。目前,我国除中国工商银行等少数机构之外,大部分金融机构还未系统性地对环境气候风险进行评估,并将其纳入投融资决策中。由此,如何客观准确地对环境气候风险评估是每个金融机构需要面对的现实问题。本文以央行和监管机构绿色金融网络(NGFS)发布的《金融机构环境风险分析案例集》为主要基础,对其涉及的两类环境气候风险的评估方法、评估应考虑的关键问题、评估涉及的关键因素以及评估模型存在的局限性等方面的内容进行编译和总结,以期对我国金融机构的环境气候风险准确客观评估给予有价值的参考借鉴。 相似文献
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本文使用系统性风险β值法度量我国上市银行的系统性风险以及上市银行对系统性风险的贡献度。研究结果表明,单个机构对系统性风险的贡献不仅取决于系统性风险β值,还受到其个体风险值的影响。总体而言,国有大型商业银行的系统性风险β值高于中小股份制商业银行,对系统性风险的边际贡献和影响也较大。但中小股份制商业银行抵御风险的能力相对较弱,尽管β值较小,一旦个体风险值急剧增加,其对系统性风险的影响也可能超过国有大型商业银行。因此,系统性风险的防范既要关注那些系统性风险β值大的银行,也要关注个体风险值可能出现剧烈波动的中小银行。 相似文献
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金融风险综合评估方法最新研究进展 总被引：3，自引：0，他引：3
风险管理是金融机构的基本任务之一,如何有效地评估多种金融风险是风险管理者尤为关注的问题。当前金融风险综合评估方法主要采用由上至下法或由下至上法的理论框架。本文从金融风险综合评估方法所需解决的基本问题入手,详细阐述了金融风险计量方法中的主流模型及其研究现状,结合Copula理论介绍了风险综合评估方法的最新进展,并根据综合评估方法中存在的问题讨论了综合评估方法的前景及展望。 相似文献
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尽管中国金融体系没有受到2008年金融海啸的重创,中国的金融市场也没有出现金融危机,但是当前中国金融体系仍然存在许多潜在风险。中国金融体系风险的特征成熟市场不同,主要表现为其不成熟性、不开放性、政府对金融市场主导性。无论是国内的银行体系还是证券市场都是如此。但是,由于国内银行体系在金融体系中的绝对地位,中国金融体系的风险主要表现在银行体系,表现为对国内银行体系过度使用及房地产泡沫吹大。因此,尽快地调整当前过度住房优惠信贷政策,是防止国内房地产泡沫破灭的关键。本文还对国内证券市场的风险及人民币升值的风险作了具体分析。 相似文献
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Kristian Kallenberg 《Journal of Risk Research》2013,16(8):1007-1025
The need for fair risk communication has emerged as a result of a more global and more flexible economy as well as of a media dominated world. Proper risk management and risk communication is therefore crucial today. The paper discusses the need for open and direct communication with the public in order to establish trust and to maintain market value. The case discussed is that of ABB (Asea Brown Boveri) asbestos litigation and the dramatic consequences it had for the company. During 2001 and 2002, the ABB share price fell by roughly 90 percent. The present study indicates that more than 50 percent of the fall was related to asbestos reporting by the media and ABB, primarily during the second half of 2002. The need for further understanding of and procedures for dealing with risks and risk communication in a business context is stressed. The outcome for ABB could have been different if more precise and defined ways of working with and communicating risks had been employed. Due to the asbestos crisis and the dramatic fall in ABB share price, ABB has implemented more structured operational risk management tools and displays a more outspoken awareness of environmental and social risk factors. This new strategy has emerged mainly as a result of an increased work with sustainability issues and a shift from a consensual/technocratic risk approach to a more deliberative mode of risk management. 相似文献
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由于部分业务、部门或市场的尾部风险溢出不仅会引发金融体系的“多米诺骨牌”效应,而且会对实体经济产生巨大负外部性,因此尾部风险事件极易引起金融市场震荡。鉴于此,识别与监测尾部风险是有效防控系统性金融风险爆发与传染的起点。本文首先以全球金融危机为节点,根据文献厘清尾部风险测度指标在危机前后的脉络。其次,介绍与尾部风险传染密切相关的尾部风险相依、金融关联网络的相关研究进展,在此基础上对尾部风险溢出强度及溢出方向展开讨论。再次,本文归纳了引发尾部风险溢出的宏观、中观和微观层面的影响因素以及尾部风险管理的路径选择。最后,对当前及未来尾部风险相关研究进行评述与展望。据此,力求为我国进一步提高防范化解金融风险能力、统筹推进疫情防控和经济社会发展、促进国民经济稳健运行和良性循环提供借鉴。 相似文献
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薛梅 《中央财经大学学报》2006,(6):80-83
高风险车辆赔付率的高低对机动车保险业务的经营效益有极大的影响,是保险公司风险管理的重点。按照风险管理的基本原理,保险公司应从风险规避、风险转移和风险控制三个方面着手,采取适当措施,加强对高风险车辆的风险管理,降低赔付率,保证业务的稳定性。不仅如此,由于风险具有可变性,实施风险管理不能一成不变,必须根据风险变化的情形随时加以调整和修改,按照科学的程序进行。 相似文献