Perception of technological risk: insights from research and lessons for risk communication and management

Technology has become a familiar companion in all areas of life. Production consumption, administration, education, communication, and leisure activities are all shaped by the use of technologies. However, people often associate with the term ‘technology’ attributes, such as catastrophic and potentially dangerous, and tend to take the benefits of technological products for granted. This asymmetry in risk–benefit perception is one of the main reasons why many consumers are concerned about ‘hidden’ risks of technologies and why they demand stringent regulatory actions when they feel unduly exposed to potential emissions or waste products associated with the lifecycle of technologies. This situation is often aggravated by social amplification processes, by which even small risks receive high media attention and are blown out of proportion in the public arena. At the same time, however, one needs to acknowledge that many technologies have the potential to harm the human health and the environment. The purpose of this article is to review our knowledge about risk perception with respect to technologies, in particular emerging technologies, and to suggest possible strategies to use this knowledge for improving our risk management practice. Technological risk perception is defined in this article as the processing of physical signals and/or information about a potentially harmful impact of using technology and the formation of a judgment about seriousness, likelihood, and acceptability of the respective technology. Based on the review of psychological, social, and cultural factors that shape individual and social risk perceptions, we have attempted to develop a structured framework that provides an integrative and systematic perspective on technological risk perception and that may assist risk management and regulation in taking perceptions into account.     

Engagement on risk and uncertainty – lessons from coastal regions of Fukushima Prefecture,Japan after the 2011 nuclear disaster?

This paper uses the case study of the south-east coast of Fukushima Prefecture in Japan to draw lessons for risk communication under situations of high uncertainty and conditions of varying trust. Based on an existing field of research into the social and ethical aspects of governing risks around environmental radioactivity, empirical qualitative material collected in Fukushima Prefecture over 2014 and 2015 is analysed around three key questions: who is undertaking risk communication and how they are perceived (in particular their motivations and perceived competence); what is the purpose of engagement with citizens and stakeholders on risk and uncertainty (i.e. whether it is to ‘convince’ people or allow them to come to their own informed decision); and whether risk communication may be considered responsive to the needs of the affected populations. The findings are then applied to Kasperson’s four questions for the future of risk communication in order to assess their wider implications. Particular attention is paid to how the individual or institution conveying the risk message is perceived, and in whose interests risk communication is undertaken.     

The social amplification of risk on Twitter: the case of ash dieback disease in the United Kingdom

It has long been recognised that the traditional media play a key role in representing risk and are a significant source of information which can shape how people perceive and respond to hazard events. Early work utilising the social amplification of risk framework (SARF) sought to understand the discrepancy between expert and lay perceptions of risk and patterns of risk intensification and attenuation with reference to the media. However, the advent of Web 2.0 challenges traditional models of communication. To date there has been limited consideration of social media within the SARF and its role in mediating processes of risk perception and communication. Against this backdrop, we focus on the social media platform Twitter to consider the social amplification of risk in relation to ash dieback disease (Hymenoscyphus fraxineus); a tree health issue that attracted intense media attention when it was first identified in the UK in 2012. We present an empirical analysis of 25,600 tweets in order to explore what people were saying about ash dieback on Twitter, who was talking about it and how they talked about it. Our discussion outlines the themes around which talk about ash dieback was orientated, the significance of users’ environmental ‘affiliations’ and the role of including links (URLs) to traditional media coverage. We utilise the notion of ‘piggybacking’ to demonstrate how information is customised in line with group/individual identities and interests and introduce the concept of the ‘frame fragment’ to illustrate how information is selected and moved around Twitter emphasising certain features of the messages. The paper affords a detailed consideration of the way in which people and organisations simultaneously appropriate, construct and pass on risk-relevant information. A conclusion is that social media has the potential to transform the media landscape within which the SARF was originally conceived, presenting renewed challenges for risk communication.     

Ebola and the rhetoric of US newspapers: assessing quality risk communication in public health emergencies

Abstract

The 2014 West African Ebola outbreak was the first to be actively covered by the US media because of cases treated on US soil. Despite little chance of widespread contagion, US media termed Ebola ‘apocalyptic.’ The objective of this study was to understand how information about Ebola provided to the public through US newspapers was presented to assess how risk communication principles were or were not used. We conducted a systematic content analysis using a purposive sample of 75 news articles published in five US newspapers between 1 August and 31 October 2014. The articles were analyzed using the Dudo et al. framework, based on the extended parallel process model, and assessed for self-efficacy information, personal risk conceptualization (risk magnitude and risk comparison information), and content framing. We found that while coverage was mostly factual, it inconsistently presented quality risk-related information, and rarely used contextual information that would help readers accurately assess risk. Few articles also provided usable, actionable directives, a tenet of good crisis communication that enhances self-efficacy and lowers risk perception. Results inform how news coverage can affect public risk perception of a new, ‘exotic’ pathogen, and how in the case of Ebola US newspapers may have contributed to the inflated risk perception observed in the US population, and may support better, more comprehensive media response during likely future outbreaks.     

The end of risk communication as we know it

According to the US National Research Council, risk communication ought to be viewed as a dialogue among people conducted to help facilitate a more accurate understanding of risks and, related, the decisions they may make to manage them. But, in spite of this widely accepted perspective on risk communication, there is often a disconnect between how it is defined and how it is practiced. Rather than focusing on a true dialogue aimed at improving risk assessments and risk management decisions, risk communication is often viewed as means of simply educating people about existing risk assessments so that, on their own, they might make (or contribute to) better risk management decisions. More worrisome, risk communication is still often seen as a means of ‘correcting’ misconceptions about, or perceptions of, risk; in other words, risk communication is used as a vehicle for attempting to align lay perceptions with their expertly assessed severity. In this paper, I argue that risk communication must become more decision-focused if it is to meet the objectives set forth – in 1989 – by the US National Research Council.     

How do people perceive graphical risk communication? The role of subjective numeracy

This study aims to evaluate directly how a graphical risk ladder is perceived and how this perception is related to people’s subjective numeracy. Gaze durations and frequencies were used to examine visual attention. Participants (N = 47) appeared to focus on the target risk information, whereas referential information was less attended. Subjective numeracy was negatively correlated with total watching time and the absolute number of gaze events. Results suggest that participants with low subjective numeracy have more difficulty in comprehending the graph, and that they process the graphical information less efficiently than the participants with high subjective numeracy. In addition, the position of referential risks on risk ladders could influence people’s risk perception. Based on these findings, we provide some implications for the design of risk communication graphs and for the use of graphs in informing persons with low subjective numeracy about risks.     

Risk perception of mobile communication: a mental models approach

Some lay people confronted with a new base station project fear serious health consequences from the high‐frequency radiation, while experts consider exposure under the current international standards as unproblematic. These conflictive estimations may be attributed to the different mental models of lay people and experts. Less is known about lay people’s knowledge in regard to mobile communication and their intuitive understanding of the associated health risks. An adaptation of the ‘Mental Models Approach’ was used to reveal lay people’s beliefs about mobile communication and to learn more about lay people’s information requirements, potential knowledge gaps, and misconceptions. Through the means of open interviews with Swiss experts (N = 16), lay people (N = 16), and base station opponents (N = 15), different mental models were constructed and evaluated. Comparisons between the expert and the lay groups showed several qualitative differences in all identified knowledge domains. Knowledge gaps in regard to changing exposure magnitudes due to the interaction patterns of cell phones and base stations as well as misconceptions about regulation issues and scientific processes were found in both lay groups. In addition, lack of trust in responsible actors and disaffection with base station location processes were mentioned. The reported qualitative insights may be useful for the improvement of further risk communication tools.     

Emotion,affect, and risk communication with older adults: challenges and opportunities

Recent research suggests that emotion, affect, and cognition play important roles in risk perception and that their roles in judgment and decision‐making processes may change over the lifespan. This paper discusses how emotion and affect might help or hinder risk communication with older adults. Currently, there are few guidelines for developing effective risk messages for the world's aging population, despite the array of complex risk decisions that come with increasing age and the importance of maintaining good decision making in later life. Age‐related declines in cognitive abilities such as memory and processing speed, increased reliance on automatic processes, and adaptive motivational shifts toward focusing more on affective (especially positive) information mean that older and younger adults may respond differently to risk messages. Implications for specific risk information formats (probabilities, frequencies, visual displays, and narratives) are discussed and directions for future research are highlighted.     

A comparative study of stakeholder risk perception and risk communication in Europe: a bovine spongiform encephalopathy case study

The ‘Transmissible Spongiform Encephalopathy (TSE) Roadmap’ was published by the European Commission on 15 July 2005. The TSE Roadmap proposes the relaxation of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) measures in the short, medium and long term. According to the Roadmap, any relaxation of BSE measures following the scientific assessment should be initiated by an open discussion with all stakeholders and supported by a strong communication strategy. This paper discusses the risk perception, risk communication and risk management of TSEs in Europe, exemplified by the TSE Roadmap. The main conclusion is that in general, BSE is no longer a ‘hot’ topic for stakeholders, but there are slight differences between countries with respect to specific measures. Another important conclusion is that the TSE Roadmap is a very effective tool for risk communication with stakeholders.     

Is the social representation of nanotechnology anchored in that of GMOs?

The use of nanotechnology (devices/materials composed of parts less than 10 nanometres) in the development of new products is rapidly expanding. Industrialists and decision-makers consider nanotechnology to be the next industrial revolution, but fear they risk the same resistance to nanotechnology that their counterparts experienced with genetically modified organisms (GMOs). Although risk perception studies have shown that perceived risk of GMOs is quite high compared to that related to nanotechnology, no study to date has explored a potential direct social representation link between the two. The present study aims to fill that gap by comparing the social representations of nanotechnology and GMOs among a population of non-experts. This study was conducted with 282 students in human and social sciences and natural sciences. Using a free association task with the inductive words ‘nanotechnology’ and ‘GMO (genetically modified organism)’, we identified the existing social representations of the two based on a structural approach. While the representation of GMOs is objectified in the field of agriculture, objectification for nanotechnology seems to still be lacking, although its possible objectification likely lies in computing and robotics. Our calculation of the rate of similarity of associative words with nanotechnology and GMOs indicated no present, direct link between their social representations. We discuss the possible evolution of the social representation of nanotechnology over time.     

How financial information disclosure affects risk perception. Evidence from Italian investors’ behaviour

This paper investigates how different representations of financial information may be appraised in terms of complexity and usefulness, and how financial disclosure influences individuals’ risk perception. By using a consumer testing analytical approach, we run a survey on a sample of Italian investors: 254 bank customers were submitted 4 different templates, each combining a different typology of data (historical and prospective) and framing (words, numbers and charts) to indicate the same level of risk and return of four real-life financial instruments. Representation formats partially overlap with those mandated by regulators and used within the financial industry. Results show that the perceived riskiness of financial products is affected by the way information is disclosed. Perceived complexity of the financial information disclosure intensifies perception of riskiness of the product solicited. Gender, age, personal traits, behavioural biases and financial knowledge, do also play a role. Overall, given investors’ heterogeneity and behavioural biases, neither simplifying disclosure nor a ‘one-size-fits-all’ approach may be sufficient to ensure correct risk perception and to prevent unbiased investment choices.     

The action suited to the word? Use of the framework of risk information seeking to understand risk-related behaviors

Although a growing body of risk communication research focuses on how people process risk information, one question that is overlooked is how the seeking of information contributes to behavioral adaptation toward the risk issue. How are people’s behavioral responses to risks affected by the search for risk information? Building on the Framework of Risk Information Seeking (FRIS), this paper reports on two studies that focus on the experimental testing of several of the basic FRIS assumptions. In study 1, a 2 (involvement: high vs. low)?×?2 (risk perception: high vs. low) between-subjects experiment was conducted to test the assumption that higher levels of involvement and risk perception stimulate the intention to seek additional risk information as well as the actual risk information. Study 2 is a partial replication of study 1. In study 2, a 2 (involvement: high vs. low)?×?2 (fear appeal: present vs. absent)?×?2 (response efficacy: high vs. low) between-subjects experiment was conducted to test how varying the levels of involvement, risk perception, and response efficacy influence actual and intended information seeking, as well as the intention to adopt risk-mitigating actions. The results showed that the high-involvement, high-risk perception, high-response efficacy group was most likely to actually seek information and make behavioral changes. The results are in accordance with basic FRIS assumptions. Implications for risk communication are discussed.     

The joint influence of financial risk perception and risk tolerance on individual investment decision‐making

The increasing complexity of the investment environment has accelerated the need for better quality financial advice services. Central to quality advice is advisers’ accurate assessment of their clients’ risk characteristics. Typically a client's risk characteristic is assessed by measuring the client's risk tolerance but not risk perception. To assess whether this practice fails to fully capture the client's risk profile, we explore both risk tolerance and risk perception in the investment decision‐making context. Using Australian online survey data of financial adviser clients (n = 364), our results reveal that risk tolerance influences risky‐asset allocation directly and indirectly through risk perception. These results thus clarify the joint role of both risk constructs in the investment making decision and highlight the importance of assessing both in the provision of client financial advice services. Importantly, our results validate a new comprehensive risk perception measure applicable in the financial advice context.     

Communication and knowledge as motivators: understanding Singaporean women’s perceived risks of breast cancer and intentions to engage in preventive measures

As breast cancer is the most prevalent cancer among women in Singapore, encouraging them to engage in preventive measures becomes increasingly important. This study aims to take a closer look at the influence of attention to media, interpersonal communication, news elaboration, and knowledge on women’s (aged between 30 and 70) perceived risks of breast cancer and their intentions to engage in preventive measures in Singapore. Attention to media, frequency of interpersonal communication, fatalistic belief, and knowledge structure density were found to be associated with risk perception of breast cancer among Singaporean women. Findings also showed that frequency of interpersonal communication, risk perception, elaboration, and factual knowledge were positively associated with women’s intentions to take up preventive measures such as breast self-examination, clinical breast examination, and mammography. Implications for theory and practice were discussed.     

Farmers’ crop insurance perception and participation decisions: empirical evidence from Hunan,China

The measurement of risk perception and risk attitudes, and their link to actual risk behaviors have been extensively discussed. However, the potential impact of perception of risk management instruments on the decision to use those instruments has rarely been addressed. This article hypothesizes that the degree of perception of insurance contracts and participation decisions could have substantial mutual influence depending on the development of the market. An empirical work is carried out based on a survey of data for paddy rice farmers in Hunan Province, China. It shows that the sampled farmers’ crop insurance perception was surprisingly low despite years of pilot programs and tens of billions of expenditure in government subsidies. The result of simultaneous equations model indicates that crop insurance perception and participation are simultaneously determined and mutually improving. Moreover, empirical evidence indicates that the impact of crop insurance participation on perception is slightly stronger than that of perception on participation, and thus provides weak evidence of a ‘learning-by-doing’ stage in China at present. Together with evidence of substantial local disparities in perception, implications for the Chinese government in further cultivating the crop and rural insurance market are discussed.     

An empirical analysis of communication flow,strategy and stakeholders' participation in the risk communication literature 1988–2000

Risk communication during the years has shown its vitality and has proved its importance as a field of research. This article provides a brief record of the development of risk communication in the environmental and technological domain by examining some of the trends resulting from the analysis of the theoretical and empirical literature in the field, as it is available through scientific journals. In total, 349 peer‐reviewed articles published between 1988 and 2000 and listed in the ISI Web of Science databases were analyzed. The theoretical perspective that we use is that of control mutuality, which emphasizes the interaction between the parties in the risk decision‐making process and their mutual influence, rather than simply unidirectional control of one stakeholder over the other. It echoes the democratic perspective, but also considers the rationality of the technical standpoint.

The results indicate that over the whole period there is an increase in published articles on risk communication. As expected, we found a gradual decrease in the articles referring to a one‐way flow of risk communication and an increase of those concerned with two‐way communication. We also observed a gradual increase in the articles referring to stakeholder participation in risk decisions in the last period. No differences were found with respect to risk communication strategy.     

A Relational Theory of Risk: a Case Study of the Asian Longhorned Beetle Infestation in Worcester,MA

Abstract

The rise of globalization and global increases in temperature have prompted the spread of invasive species, which poses a major threat to the ecosystem benefits provided by urban forests. Stakeholders such as urban residents, policy-makers, and forestry industry professionals deem these risks differently because they place value on threatened goods and services at different spatial and temporal scales. This article will use the frameworks of relational risk theory and relational place-making to connect ‘risk objects’ and ‘objects at risk’ to better understand how relationships of risk shape responses to threats to the environment. The data in this study comes from Worcester, MA, where discovery of the Asian Longhorned Beetle prompted the United States Department of Agriculture to remove 35,000 trees from streets and backyards in the quarantine zone. The three different stakeholder groups that were targeted for data collection were green industry representatives, government decision makers, and residents. Green industry representatives, decision makers, and residents were interviewed while additional residents responded to a survey. The results showed that greater understanding of the different objects and places at risk removed misconceptions between different stakeholders. Understanding is increased when each stakeholder recognizes the different spatial scales of the objects at risk. This improvement of transparency can lead to better communication of the variety of risks posed by invasive species and a faster and more unified response to the threats from invasive species or other natural disasters.     

A generalized probability framework to model economic agents' decisions under uncertainty

The applications of techniques from statistical (and classical) mechanics to model interesting problems in economics and finance have produced valuable results. The principal movement which has steered this research direction is known under the name of ‘econophysics’. In this paper, we illustrate and advance some of the findings that have been obtained by applying the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics to model human decision making under ‘uncertainty’ in behavioral economics and finance. Starting from Ellsberg's seminal article, decision making situations have been experimentally verified where the application of Kolmogorovian probability in the formulation of expected utility is problematic. Those probability measures which by necessity must situate themselves in Hilbert space (such as ‘quantum probability’) enable a faithful representation of experimental data. We thus provide an explanation for the effectiveness of the mathematical framework of quantum mechanics in the modeling of human decision making. We want to be explicit though that we are not claiming that decision making has microscopic quantum mechanical features.     

Public meetings about local cancer clusters: exploring the relative influence of official versus symbolic risk messages on attendees’ post‐meeting concern

Scholars have long lobbied for a view of risk communication that supplants a conventional ‘transmission’ model of risk communication with an alternative that considers the complex social environment that accompanies any risk communication effort. Along these lines, this study examines the relative influence of official health messages versus symbolic risk messages on public meeting attendees’ post‐meeting concern about cancer clusters in six US communities. As part of a larger study of cancer clusters, we obtained written responses from 125 individuals who attended a government‐sponsored public meeting in their community. We asked respondents whether attending the meeting influenced their concerns and, if so, why. The results found that, despite the largely reassuring messages that health officials were giving, most attendees reported feeling more concerned after the meetings in their communities. Regarding why, explanations that denoted symbolic risk messages – unofficial sources of risk information and procedural cues – outnumbered explanations that pointed to official risk messages – scientific presentations – by a score of three to one. The results lend support for a broader view of risk communication, which accounts not only for multiple sources of risk information but also for procedural cues regarding the trustworthiness of an investigation.     

Transparency and trust in the European pharmaceutical sector: outcomes from an experimental study

Many European pharmaceutical regulators have committed to a more open, inclusive, and transparent model of regulatory decision-making in recent years. Yet, based on little empirical evidence, they have overwhelmingly adopted ‘fishbowl’ transparency measures, ‘the full disclosure of information without explanatory information or contextualization’ (e.g. heightening access to raw data). This paper conveys recent findings from an open-ended questionnaire with 200 face-to-face interviews carried out in the UK and the Netherlands. The study provides evidence on how members of the public are likely to react to ‘fishbowl’ transparency policies and receiving decontextualized data. After showing respondents raw data from a periodic safety update report that regulators are proposing to proactively release, the survey found they were shocked, concerned, and more worried, while many said they would reconsider taking their medicines and seek further advice. Based on these findings, the authors argue that enhancing ‘transparency’ needs to be integrated with effective, evidence- and science-based benefit/risk communication.