中国股票市场泡沫(英文)

中国股票市场历史虽不久远,但股票泡沫却一直存在,这也成为阻碍股票市场发展的关键原因。本文将以工商银行(A股),世纪鼎利(创业板股)这两只不同种类的股票为例,通过实例分析,比较不同种类股票泡沫的大小,分析影响泡沫大小的因素。其中市盈率无疑是一个重要的参考标准,还有公司类型,政府干预也是因素之一。同时,本文还会比较2008年金融海啸前后的中国股市,讨论其是不是影响股市泡沫的又一原因。     

中国股市需要“停车修理”

A股为何会回到"1时代"?导致当前中国股市信心不足的原因:其一,800多家等待IPO的企业和再融资让市场异常恐惧,这些等待IPO的企业继续在发审委排队,按照目前的发行速度,至少需要5年,如此下去不但给市场带来巨大的扩容压力,也会让市场的资源配置功能彻底丧失。如果资本市场不能有效支持实体经济,真正的优质企业无法上市融资,投资者买不到好股票,市场必然会进入恶性调整。其二,限售股解禁、减持的压力让股市资金供需严重失衡,因为股权分置改革带来的"成本分置"后遗症需要很多资金来填补"全流通",来缓解大小非、大小限的套现压     

“转融通”引来的资金活水：有效对接货币市场与证券市场

在过去,证券公司只是单纯地凭经纪业务取胜,靠天吃饭,而转融通业务的推出标志着—个全新的金融创新时代的到来。     

STOCK SPLITS AND MARKET ANOMALIES

Previous studies of market efficiency have reported conflicting results when examining stock splits. Recent studies reporting market inefficiencies have made several methodological improvements, but have failed to control for the possible confounding effects of “unexpected” changes in corporate earnings announced near the stock split event. Stock splits are often issued around the time that firms experience large increases in corporate earnings. Therefore, an explicit treatment of earnings announcements in an event study of stock splits may yield further insights. This study found no market inefficiencies associated with splitting securities that experienced moderate changes in corporate earnings. However, anomalies were associated with splitting securities that experienced large increases in corporate earnings. These results suggest that previous findings of market inefficiencies, attributable solely to the stock split event, may be due in part to unexpected changes in corporate earnings.     

MODELS OF STOCK MARKET PREDICTABILITY

I briefly review the success of past studies purporting to explain equity valuations and predict future equity returns. The Campbell‐Shiller mean reversion models are contrasted with an expanded version of the so‐called Federal Reserve model. At least from 1970 to 2003, Federal Reserve–type models did somewhat better at predicting long‐horizon returns than did a mean reversion model based on dividend yields and price‐earnings multiples. However, timing investment strategies based on any of these prediction models do no better than a buy‐and‐hold strategy. Although some predictability of returns exists, there is no evidence of any systematic inefficiency that would enable investors to earn excess returns.     

STOCK MARKET CONSEQUENCES OF POLITICAL VIBRANCY

We define areas with strong geographic ties to powerful politicians as politically vibrant and show that they are characterized by greater value-relevant information generation and symptomatic of equity market segmentation. Political vibrancy entails greater levels of local bias and local comovement and has two important return predictability implications. First, it enhances local institutions’ informational advantages; their trades’ ability to forecast local stock returns exceeds that of nonlocal institutions. Second, in support of the view that information diffuses slowly into prices, stock returns of firms from politically vibrant areas predict returns of similar firms in other areas.     

STOCK MARKET OPENNESS AND MARKET QUALITY: EVIDENCE FROM THE SHANGHAI–HONG KONG STOCK CONNECT PROGRAM

We study the impact of capital market openness on high-frequency market quality in China. The Shanghai–Hong Kong Stock Connect program (SHHKConnect) opens China's stock market to foreign investors and offers a natural experiment to investigate this question. Using a difference-in-differences approach, we find that market liberalization leads to lower quoted spread, lower effective spread, lower market depth, and higher short-term volatility. Our findings imply that opening the markets to more sophisticated foreign investors is associated with higher competition and more cross-market arbitrage activities, narrowing the spread and reducing liquidity providers’ profits, but increasing the price impact and short-term volatility of connected stocks.