“10+3”服务贸易竞合可能性分析

首先分析了服务贸易的现状,随后采取多种方法考察了其国际竞争力及出口相似性,以期探析"10+3"服务贸易竞争与合作的可能性。研究表明,采取不同指标测度服务贸易竞争力会得出不同的结论,东盟与中、日、韩服务贸易的比较优势存在差异,而各类服务内部贸易比重较高为进一步合作提供了可能,但出口相似性较高致使竞争明显,由此"10+3"之间的服务贸易是合作与竞争并存。     

中、马、泰三国电子产品在美国市场的出口竞争力

20世纪90年代以来,东亚地区的电子产业迅速发展,电子产品已成为中国、马来西亚和泰国的主要出口产品。随着中国工业化进程的不断推进,特别是中国的入世,东盟国家,尤其是马来西亚和泰国担心面临中国电子产品的竞争。为此,本文采用变动市场份额分析法、出口产品结构相似度指标和显性比较优势指标对中、马、泰三国电子产品的出口竞争力进行比较分析,并在研究成果的基础上提出相关的建议。     

中国和美国服务业出口竞争力比较分析

本文在界定服务业出口竞争力评价体系的基础上,对中、美两国服务业出口竞争力进行了4个方面的比较分析。通过比较两国服务业净出口额、服务业出口国际市场占有率、服务业贸易竞争优势指数和服务贸易显性比较优势指数4个指标得出:美国在技术密集型的服务业上有极强的出口竞争力,而中国在技术密集型服务业上具有显性比较劣势,并且中国在传统服务业运输和旅游业上的出口竞争力在逐渐减弱,但是中国技术密集型服务业的出口竞争力在增强。最后,本文借助波特的"钻石模型"对中国和美国服务业出口竞争力进行了进一步分析并提出了相应的对策建议。     

中国与东盟果蔬产品出口国际竞争研究——基于美、日、韩、欧盟和香港市场的实证分析

以果蔬产品出口为研究对象,借助市场集中度指数、出口多样性指数、出口相似度指数以及CTG指数全面分析了中国与东盟国家在主要目标市场上的贸易关系。研究结果表明中国与东盟的果蔬产品在主要目标市场存在较强的竞争关系,且中国在部分产品上具有竞争优势。因此,中国在巩固已有市场的同时,可借助中国独有的竞争优势,开拓与东盟错位竞争的新市场。     

The contribution of granular and fundamental comparative advantage to European Union countries' export specialisation

This paper analyses the contribution of fundamental comparative advantage (a country-specific component) and granular comparative advantage (a firm-specific component) to European Union countries' export specialisation. We find that, on average, granular comparative advantage may explain export specialisation in 29% of industries, which account for 47% of total exports. We also show that 60% of the variation in export specialisation across countries and industries may be explained by granular comparative advantage. These results highlight that some outstanding firms may play a very important role in explaining European Union countries' export specialisation.     

Assessing Export Competitiveness through the Lens of Value Added

Extensive changes in the organization of world trade over the last two decades have renewed concerns about countries’ ability to compete in export markets. The impact could be especially large in industries that participate in global value chains (GVCs). This study assesses the recent export performance of 56 countries in five industries associated with GVCs using an index of normalised revealed comparative advantage (RCA) that can be compared across industries and countries and new data on the domestic value added in exports from the OECD's Trade in Value‐added database. For a number of the GVC industries, countries identified as the most competitive based on gross exports are often found to be less competitive when evaluated in terms of domestic value added. Business services are an important exception; several countries appear more competitive on a value‐added basis than based on conventional measures of gross exports. Despite concerns about hollowing out, a number of major industrial countries remain highly competitive in one or more GVC industries, even from the perspective of domestic value added. A value‐added approach to RCA provides insights that are not apparent from an exclusive focus on gross exports.     

对我国制造业比较优势变化的深度考察——基于技术含量角度的分析

20世纪90年代以来,我国对外贸易不断加速发展,在规模扩大的同时,出口商品结构也呈现明显的变化,其中技术含量较高的产品所占比重不断增加。本文采用了从不同角度反映比较优势的有关指标,在产业层面对我国不同技术含量的制造业比较优势的变化情况进行了全面深入的考察。分析表明,就技术含量而言,我国出口产品比较优势结构呈优化发展趋势,高技术含量产业较之中、低技术含量产业的比较优势而言,其变化情况呈现出更快的提升速度,但我国的总体比较优势结构与达到质变水平尚有差距。     

Geographic Concentration and China's Agricultural Export Instability

This paper investigates the impacts of geographic concentration on China's agricultural export instability with a multiple‐region variance decomposition approach. The decomposition results suggest that China's agricultural export concentration into the Japanese market greatly lowers agricultural export instability, while concentration into the Hong Kong, South Korea, ASEAN, the US, and Russian Federation markets increases export instability. China's exports to the EU also lower its agricultural export instability. Further decomposition results indicate that the impacts of geographic concentration on different agricultural product export instabilities are different.     

中国与东盟的贸易相关指数分析

东盟的未来取决于和中国经济一体化的程度,这是一个不争的事实。本文使用贸易强度指数、行业内贸易指数、显性比较优势指数和贸易互补性指数对中国与东盟之间的贸易进行分析,以此说明中国与东盟之间经济的互补性和形成中国-东盟自由贸易区对东盟经济发展的必要性。     

我国棉花生产比较优势与出口竞争力的区域差异分析

我国是世界产棉大国之一,棉花在农业生产和国民经济建设中占有十分重要的地位。本文运用生产规模和生产效率两项指标,通过建立综合比较优势指数模型,分析了我国各产棉省区棉花生产的比较优势差异。同时,运用显示性比较优势指数和净出口贸易指数两项指标,分析了各产棉省区棉花出口竞争力的区域差异及其动态变化,并根据研究结果提出了简要的对策建议。     

The revealed comparative advantage of the east asian NICs

The spectacular export performance of the East Asian NICs is clearly indicated by their increasing shares of manufactured exports in the world markets. However, the conventional wisdom that the comparative advantage of industrialized countries such as Japan has systematically shifted to the NICs is challenged by the results from this study. A detailed analysis of the threedigit SITC product categories for manufactures indicates that NIC exports have not replaced Japan's in the U.S. market. The growth of manufactured exports from the NICs is moving along with the growth of Japan's exports in similar product categories but at different stages of the product cycle or of technology sophistication. Hence, the NICs, rather than replacing the exports from Japan, are merely supplying some complementary manufactured products to the industrialized market.     

Export Competitiveness of Botswana’s Beef Industry

We investigate Botswana’s beef export competitiveness for the period 1961–2011 using the Normalized Revealed Comparative Advantage (NRCA) index. Results indicate that Botswana has had a comparative advantage throughout the review period. Overall, the country ranked fifth out of nine leading beef exporters. However, its comparative advantage weakened after 1975, and the country has recently been bypassed by three other key beef exporters which initially had comparative disadvantages. This was largely driven by increasing domestic demand for beef (and stagnant domestic supply). Policymakers should consider removal of the state-trader export monopoly to promote private sector entry and vertical diversification into value-added exports.     

中日韩三国农产品贸易竞争关系的研究

建立中日韩自由贸易区是区域经济一体化发展的必然要求,而三国间的农产品贸易现状与发展趋势,以及农产品贸易的特殊性对自由贸易区的建立具有十分重要的影响。本文通过产品相似性指数和市场相似性指数对中日韩三国农产品的贸易竞争关系进行了实证分析。研究结果表明,中日韩三国间的农产品相似性指数高于市场相似性指数,农产品贸易关系以竞争性为主,并依据本文研究得出的主要结论,提出了扩大我国农产品出口的相关建议。     

中国与东盟农产品贸易竞争关系——基于出口相似性指数的实证分析

本文利用出口相似性指数分别从产品和市场两个角度分析了中国与东盟国家农产品贸易竞争关系的强弱及其变化趋势。研究结果表明:中国与东盟国家农产品贸易的市场相似性指数高于产品相似性指数,农产品出口产品结构的差异决定了中国与东盟的农产品贸易关系不是以竞争为主;中国与东盟农业领域内的合作将有利于强化产品差异、缓解农产品市场竞争程度。     

Exports of developing countries: differentiation and comparative advantage

Differentiation among developing countries is a much-discussed phenomenon, mostly without being established in a consistent way. Differentiation implies both diversification of exports and differences between developing countries in this respect. It is the purpose of this article to measure differentiation among developing countries comprehensively and to relate this to changes in comparative advantage. Therefore, Theil's entropy index is applied to the manufactured exports of 100 developing countries over a period of 25 years, at the two- and three-digit level of the international-standard industrial classification. Both aspects of differentiation are confirmed. Manufacturing exports have, indeed, diversified for most developing countries, and some countries have been more successful than others. The latter group has increased its share in exports of developing countries by diversifying away from resource-intensive products toward more advanced products.     

Exchange Rate Volatility and Intra‐Asia Trade: Evidence by Type of Goods

This paper examines the impact of intra‐Asia exchange rate volatility on intra‐Asia trade in primary goods, intermediate goods, equipment goods and consumption goods from 1980 to 2009. For Asia, the evidence shows that as intraregional exchange rate volatility increases, intraregional exports in these goods fall. This adverse impact is even more pronounced in the subregion of Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN)+5 comprising ASEAN member countries plus the People's Republic of China; Hong Kong, China; Japan; the Republic of Korea; and Taipei, China; and especially among intermediate and equipment exports. Again, the impact magnifies in an even smaller subgroup excluding the smaller ASEAN economies. These results underline the significant impact of exchange rate volatility on the region's production networks. For South Asia, however, exchange rate volatility appears to have a positive impact on exports. Still, caution is warranted given that South Asian economies trade relatively little with each other.     

我国高新技术产业贸易竞争力分析

近年来,我国高新技术产品出口在制成品出口中的比重不断增加,由此引发对我国高新技术产业贸易竞争力及比较优势的思考。本文通过对比传统贸易理论和内生比较优势理论,利用贸易竞争力指数和“显示”比较优势指数对我国高新技术产业的国际竞争力进行了测算,并运用战略性贸易政策对我国发展高新技术产业提供了政策支持。     

中国与东盟水产品在日本市场的竞争性分析

随着东盟自由贸易区的正式成立,中国-东盟的双边贸易越来越频繁,合作越来越紧密的同时,双方之间的竞争问题也引起了学者的广泛关注。本文利用出口相似性指数对中国-东盟四国(泰国、越南、印尼、菲律宾)水产品在日本市场上的出口相似程度从产品和市场两方面进行测算,综合分析中国与东盟水产品贸易的竞争关系以及趋势,然后再细化到分析具体某一类产品的竞争关系,从而对整个水产品行业进行国际竞争性分析,以期为加强中国与东盟水产品贸易合作提供实证依据。     

中国与东盟五国出口相似性研究

中国与东盟国家是经济发展程度和地理位置接近、外向型经济都十分活跃的发展中国家。本文对双方在出口结构上的相似性程度进行实证,分析结果表明双方在总体出口、工业品出口以及对美国市场出口等方面都具有很大的相似性,这反映相互间存在很强的竞争关系。对此,本文认为双方应该建立竞争与合作共存的一体化制度,从而实现共赢的局面。     

广东与东盟农产品贸易的竞争性与互补性分析

文章运用出口相似性指数、贸易互补性指数对广东与东盟农产品贸易的竞争性和互补性进行的分析表明:在世界市场上,广东和东盟存在着激烈的竞争关系,从时间序列来看,最近几年竞争程度有所减弱;广东出口与东盟进口的贸易互补性在不断减弱,而广东进口与东盟国家出口的互补性在不断增强,广东与东盟农产品贸易之间存在一定的互补性.