Equity in Poverty Program Evaluations

Poverty‐reducing programs often use indicators other than household income to transfer resources to the poor which has important implications in terms of equity of the program. This paper offers a decomposition methodology to analyze the horizontal and vertical equity components of a redistribution policy for subgroups defined according to policy‐relevant characteristics. Our measures are derived by comparing the cost of inequality in terms of equally distributed equivalent poverty gaps in the pre‐transfer income and post‐transfer income distributions. An application to the poverty‐reducing program Oportunidades in Mexico in 2006 reveals that the use of indicator variables more strongly correlated with pre‐transfer incomes in rural households can improve the redistributive effect while it also points out the difficulties of the program in targeting different levels of support among the poor, both within and between groups.     

Channels of redistribution: Inequality and poverty in the Russian transition

Contrary to popular perception, Russia entered the transition with significant inequality. Using the large Russian Longitudinal Monitoring Survey dataset, we demonstrate that inequality has subsequently risen yet further and by end-1996 was roughly comparable to inequality in Mexico, Colombia or Malaysia. Driving this increase has been not only wealth transfers through privatization but also changes in government expenditure and a sharp growth in earnings dispersion. There has been a large, associated shift in the structure of income. The paper also looks at the incidence and depth of poverty over the period 1992-96. At the start of transition, roughly half the population of households fell below the poverty line. While this has subsequently declined, at end-1996 nearly 40 per cent of households were below the poverty line and a substantial stratum of households were locked in chronic poverty.     

MEASURING POVERTY USING BOTH INCOME AND WEALTH: A CROSS‐COUNTRY COMPARISON BETWEEN THE U.S. AND SPAIN

We study the correspondence between a household's income and its vulnerability to income shocks in two developed countries: the U.S. and Spain. Vulnerability is measured by the availability of wealth to smooth consumption in a multidimensional approach to poverty, which allows us to identify three groups of households: the twice‐poor group, which includes income‐poor households who lack an adequate stock of wealth; the group of protected‐poor households, which are all those income‐poor families with a buffer stock of wealth they can rely on; and the vulnerable‐non‐poor group, including households above the income‐poverty line that do not hold any stock of wealth. Interestingly, the risk of belonging to these groups changes over the life‐cycle in both countries while the size of the groups differs significantly between Spain and the U.S., although this result is quite sensitive to whether the housing wealth component is included in the wealth measure or not.     

Caste, Inequality, and Poverty in India

This paper analyses inequality and poverty in India within the context of caste‐based discrimination. It does so by decomposing the difference between (caste) Hindu and Scheduled Caste (SC) and Scheduled Tribe (ST) households in: their average household incomes; their probabilities of being in different income percentiles; their probabilities of being at different levels of poverty into: a “discrimination effect”, which stems from the fact that a household's income level, into which its (income‐generating) profile translates, depends on whether it is SC/ST; an “attributes (or residual) effect” which stems from the fact that there are systematic differences between SC/ST and Hindu households in their (income‐generating) profiles. The results, based on unit record data for 28,922 households, showed that at least one‐third of the average income/probability differences between Hindu and SC/ST households was due to the “unequal treatment” of the latter.     

Vulnerability Orderings for Expected Poverty Indices

Vulnerability to poverty refers to the risk of an individual or household falling below the poverty line. A partial vulnerability to poverty ordering is defined to indicate when a situation characterized by uncertainty means that people are more vulnerable to poverty than in another situation. The family of expected poverty indices used in this context contains versions under vulnerability of many well‐known poverty indices. The ordering resembles the Hardy et al. result on the Lorenz partial ordering. A separate ordering for the expected income gap ratio is also investigated. First‐order stochastic dominance is used to indicate when the expected value of the censored returns from the states increases.     

A Behavior‐Based Approach to the Estimation of Poverty in India

Estimates of poverty in India are crucial inputs for the understanding of world poverty, yet there is much disagreement about the numbers and the legitimacy of methods used to derive them. In this paper, we propose and justify an alternative approach to identify the poor, which uses the proportion of income spent on food. Our estimates have weaker data requirements than official methods, and they compare favorably with several validation tests. Most notably, households around our state poverty lines obtain their calories from similar sources, whereas this is not true of official poverty lines. We also find that rates of self‐reported hunger are higher in states that we classify as poor.     

The Development of Government Policies on Poverty and Income Distribution

This paper discusses trends in poverty in Australia over the last two decades, as indicated by changes in the number and composition of income units with incomes below the Henderson poverty line as well as by trends in the circumstances of the population in receipt of social security payments. This analysis suggests that there have been significant changes in the nature of poverty in Australia, which has increased among those of workforce age. Families with children have been particularly affected by these developments. The paper describes the development of policies designed to achieve the government's pledge that by 1990 no child need live in poverty. Despite the usefulness of the Henderson poverty line in identifying trends in economic vulnerability, the paper identifies a number of practical objections to using this indicator to assess the total effect of government initiatives. The paper concludes with a discussion of a broad approach to poverty alleviation, which would include income support, labour market and community services policies.     

Poverty Among Young Australians

In this article the incidence of poverty among the young is explained in terms of their labour force experience, educational attainment, gender, and living arrangements. The availability of the Australian Longitudinal Survey data enables the incomes of individuals to be related to many other socioeconomic variables over a number of years.
Generally the poor do not have high levels of education. About half of those classified as poor, endured a poverty spell of one year. But less than five per cent of the poor were so in each of the four survey years. Many of the poor were studying. Their low current incomes were presumably endured in the anticipation of high future earnings. The young women who were poor, many with children, were typically living in households offering them no additional financial support.     

Poverty and resource dependence in rural India

Previous studies of rural households in developing countries have tended to find that the dependence of these households on common-pool resources declines with income. Our study of households in Jhabua, India, finds a more complex relationship. Using the share of resource income in total long-run or “permanent” income as our dependence measure—which we argue is more appropriate than the short-run income-based measure commonly used in the literature—we find that for households that collect any resources at all, dependence exhibits a U-shaped relationship with income. That is, the poorest and richest households depend more on resources than households with intermediate incomes. The poorest and richest households are also found to be least likely to collect, however, indicating that resource use at the income extremes is bimodal—either zero or above average. Moreover, the observed trends for resources as a whole are not mirrored in those for individual resources. Dependence on fuelwood and dung declines with income, for example, while dependence on fodder and construction wood increases. These findings suggest that common-pool resources are a productive source of income not just for the poor but also for the rich, and that improvements in the stocks of these resources can potentially form the basis of poverty reduction efforts in these economies.     

The Persistence of Income Shocks: Evidence from Rural Indonesia

This paper estimates the persistence of transient income shocks to farm households in rural Indonesia. Persistence is defined as the elasticity of a household's 1997 household per capita income with respect to its 1993 per capita income, controlling for time‐invariant characteristics of the household. Local rainfall levels are used as an exogenous source of transitory variation in 1993 income. Four main conclusions emerge. First, roughly 30% of household income shocks remain after four years. Second, the persistence of negative and positive shocks is approximately equal; if anything, positive shocks last longer. Third, neither positive nor negative income shocks disproportionately affect poor households. Finally, measurement error in income and unobserved household heterogeneity are important sources of bias. These findings cast doubt on common arguments advocating public intervention to stabilize or redistribute income, and suggest that anti‐poverty policy should address more permanent causes of household poverty.     

Optimal mixed taxation,credit constraints,and the timing of income tax reporting

We study optimal income and commodity tax policy with credit‐constrained low‐income households. Workers receive an even flow of income during the tax year, but report their incomes and make tax payments (receive transfers) at the end of the year. They spend their disposable income on multiple commodities over the year. We show that differentiated subsidies on commodities can be optimal even if the Atkinson–Stiglitz Theorem conditions apply. When the optimal policy leaves low‐income households with binding credit constraints, it may be optimal to subsidize differentially the good that they consume in higher proportion. Uniform subsidies would also relax the credit constraint, but would be more costly to the government since they would equally benefit unconstrained households. Numerical examples suggest that commodity tax differentiation increases with basic needs and with the interest rate at which government borrows.     

The Covariance Structure of East and West German Incomes and its Implications for the Persistence of Poverty and Inequality

Abstract. Based on data from the German Socio-Economic Panel (GSOEP), this paper analyzes the dynamics of equivalent income in East and West Germany in the years following reunification. Special emphasis is given to the separation of permanent and transitory components, the persistence of transitory shocks and their implications for the persistence of poverty and inequality. The results suggest that in West Germany, between 52 and 69 per cent of cross-sectional income inequality was permanent, and that poor individuals stayed in poverty for two years on average. In East Germany, the share of the permanent component in overall income inequality rose continuously from 20 per cent in 1990 to 72 per cent in 1998, reaching a level near the one that prevailed in West Germany during the same period. The rising importance of time-invariant components in East German incomes was also reflected in expected poverty durations which slightly increased from 1.47 years in 1990 to 1.67 years in 1998.     

“When Life Gives You Lemons”: Using Cross-Sectional Surveys to Identify Chronic Poverty in the Absence of Panel Data

At the core of poverty eradication is the need to eliminate that poverty that is persistent over time (chronic poverty). Unfortunately, traditional approaches to identifying chronic poverty require longitudinal data that is rarely available. In its absence, this paper proposes an alternative approach that only requires 1 year of cross-sectional data on monetary and non-monetary poverty. It puts forth two conjectures and contends that the combined profile of a household as both income poor and multidimensionally poor can be used as a proxy of that household being chronically income poor. To explore the viability of this approach, we use a probit model and longitudinal data for three Latin American countries to estimate households’ probabilities of remaining in income poverty based on their past income and multidimensional poverty statuses. We find empirical support for the approach that is significant, consistent across countries, and robust to various controls and periods of analysis.     

Contributions of Longitudinal Data to Poverty Measurement in Australia*

Chronic poverty is of greater social consequence than transitory poverty but its measurement requires longitudinal data. This article uses six waves of data from the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia Survey to explore the extent to which longitudinal data contribute to what is known about poverty from cross‐section data. We find an imperfect correspondence between people’s annual poverty status and chronic poverty status. Consequently, policies that aim to reduce chronic poverty using means‐tested benefits may be partially misdirected if beneficiaries are identified using annual income. Furthermore, some households experiencing chronic poverty may fall through the safety net.     

A Decomposition Analysis of Regional Poverty in Russia

The paper applies a new decomposition technique to the study of variations in poverty across the regions of Russia. The procedure, which is based on the Shapley value in cooperative game theory, allows the deviation in regional poverty levels from the all‐Russia average to be attributed to three proximate sources: per capita income, inequality, and local prices. Contrary to expectation, regional poverty variations turn out to be due more to differences in inequality across regions than to differences in real income per capita. However, when real income per capita is split into nominal income and price components, differences in nominal incomes emerge as more important than either inequality or price effects for the majority of regions.     

Evaluating the performance of means-tested benefits in Bulgaria

Using household survey data and microsimulation techniques, we analyse the performance of three means-tested benefits in Bulgaria. We find that the transfers reach a small proportion of households with incomes below a relative poverty line, they have high non take-up rates, and large proportions of the recipients are neither poor nor entitled to receive the benefits. Unsurprisingly, although an important income source for poor households, the benefits have a very small impact on reducing the poverty rates. We show that our results are robust to potential underreporting of benefit receipt in the household survey. Finally, we analyse the effect of five reform scenarios, one of which fiscally neutral, on poverty and find that there is a large scope for policy improvement.     

Microcredit,Labor, and Poverty Impacts in Urban Mexico

Improved household accessibility to credit is a significant determinant of intra‐household allocation of labor resources with important implications for productivity, income, and poverty status. However, credit accessibility could also have wider impacts on poverty if it leads to new hires outside the household. This paper contributes to the existing literature on microcredit in two important ways. First, it investigates the routes through which microcredit reaches those in poverty outside the household. We test whether by lending to the vulnerable non‐poor microcredit can indirectly benefit poor laborers through increased employment. Second, we conduct the study in the context of urban poverty Mexico. This is relevant when considering that labor often represents the only source of livelihoods to the extreme urban poor. Our findings point to significant trickle‐down effects of microcredit that benefit poor laborers; however, these effects are only observed after loan‐supported enterprising households achieve earnings well above the poverty line.     

Skill Upgrading in New Zealand, 1986–2001

Educational attainment increased markedly in New Zealand between 1986 and 2001, while the income premia for higher qualifications first increased and then stabilised or decreased over the 1990s. We first document the growth in qualification‐based skills and then examine its contribution to average income growth and the relationship with relative demand changes. Of the 15 per cent increase in real average incomes between 1986 and 2001, upskilling accounted for 25 per cent, while 70 per cent was due to income growth across all qualifications. The pattern of qualification employment share and relative income changes provides evidence of changing demand for skills within detailed industry–occupation cells.     

LONGITUDINAL MEASURES OF POVERTY: ACCOUNTING FOR INCOME AND ASSETS OVER TIME

This paper uses data from the Survey of Income and Program Participation to estimate durations of poverty spells and to determine whether temporarily poor families have sufficient assets to cover the shortfall of their incomes below poverty—their personal poverty gaps. If poverty is measured using monthly rather than annual income data, four times as many persons enter poverty, but most spells are short: the median duration is between four and six months. More than one-third of all poverty spells are eliminated if financial assets are used to fill poverty gaps, but remaining poverty spells are longer. Separate estimates are made for the elderly and for families with children.     

CHINESE POVERTY: ASSESSING THE IMPACT OF ALTERNATIVE ASSUMPTIONS

This paper investigates how estimates of the extent and trend of consumption poverty in China between 1990 and 2004 vary as a result of alternative plausible assumptions concerning the poverty line and estimated levels of consumption. Our methodology focuses on the following sources of variation: purchasing power exchange rates (used to convert an international poverty line), alternative levels and distributions of private incomes, alternative estimates of the propensity to consume of different income groups, and alternative spatial and temporal price indices. We report national, urban and rural poverty estimates corresponding to distinct assumptions. It is widely believed that substantial poverty reduction took place in China in the 1990s, and we find this conclusion to be largely robust to the choice of assumptions, although estimates of the extent of Chinese poverty, and therefore of world poverty, in any year are greatly influenced by this choice.