Effect of Trade on the Demand for Skilled and Unskilled Workers

We use an input–output model to examine the effects of trade and domestic consumption, technology and labor productivity on skilled and unskilled worker demand. We found that trade was not the major contributor to changes in demand for skilled and unskilled labor during 1972–92, counter to the continuing debate on the trade-widening wage gap linkage. We found that skill intensity, i.e. the ratio of high-skilled to low-skilled workers for exports compared with imports, exceeded one during 1972–92, but did not increase. We explore alternative definitions of skilled and unskilled, and find our results to be robust to these alternative definitions.     

中国制造业技能偏向技术进步的测度与分析

技能偏向技术进步已成为理解各国普遍存在的技能劳动需求分化和技能溢价的关键性因素。采取Malmquist-TFP指数分解方法,测度技术进步偏向性,发现我国制造业并非全部都存在技能偏向技术进步,技术进步技能偏向也没有表现出线性增长趋势,而是呈现出较大的波动性。对技能偏向技术进步演变机制的研究发现,技能劳动供给增长增强了技能偏向技术进步,但国际贸易对其促进作用仅仅在高技术和低技术行业中存在。     

Market imperfections, trade reform and total factor productivity growth: theory and practices from India

The study investigates how market imperfections distort the impact of trade reform on productivity growth. As the trade expands it influences both product and factor prices and if the distortions arise due to these market imperfections are not eliminated, the usual estimate of total factor productivity growth, using the growth accounting method, would be misleading. Theoretically, it shows that the usual estimate tends to be overestimated in the export competing sector and underestimated in the import competing sector. A modified approach of Olley–Pakes and Levinsohn–Petrin methods involving three-digits industries over the fifteen major Indian states during the period 1998–2005 has been used to deal with the simultaneity issue of factor choice and market distortions for the better estimate. A positive and significant impact of openness on the productivity growth has been observed only when the market imperfections are eliminated. Moreover, the modified productivity growth, after controlling market imperfections, has turned out to be lower than that of the usual estimate in India.     

Immigration and firm productivity: evidence from the Canadian Employer-Employee Dynamics Database

Previous studies on the impact of immigration on productivity in developed countries remain inconclusive, and most analyses are abstracted from firms where production actually takes place. This study examines the empirical relationship between immigration and firm-level productivity in Canada. It uses the Canadian Employer-Employee Dynamics Database that tracks firms over time and matches firms with their employees. The study finds that there is a positive association between changes in the share of immigrants in a firm and changes in firm productivity. This positive effect of immigration on firm productivity is small, but it is stronger over a longer period. The effect tends to be larger for low-skilled immigrants as compared with highly-skilled workers, as firm productivity growth is more strongly associated with changes in the share of recent immigrants (relative to established immigrants), and immigrants who intended to work in non-high skilled occupations (relative to immigrants who intended to work in high-skilled occupations). Those differences are more pronounced in technology-intensive and knowledge-based industries. Immigration is found to have little estimated effects on capital intensity in a firm. Finally, this study finds that high skill and lower skill immigrants have similar effects on average worker earnings arising from the positive productivity effect of immigration, but only skilled immigrants are associated with higher firm profits.

     

Productivity Growth,Import Leakage and Employment Growth in Puerto Rico, 1967–87

Using Puerto Rican input–output data that cover the period 1967–87, we find that employment growth was led primarily by a rapid increase in final output—5.1% per year—although labor productivity growth was also substantial, at 3.7% per year. Import leakages also fell over this period, but had little impact on employment growth. Local absorption was more successful than exports in generating new jobs. Employment generated by local absorption grew by 35% and that from exports by 29%, even though exports increased almost four-fold, while local absorption only doubled. The difference reflects the greater labor intensity of industries that supply local absorption. There was also a notable shift in the occupational structure toward white-collar employment and away from blue-collar jobs. The primary reason for this was the shift in the composition of final demand toward industries that rely heavily on white-collar workers. A secondary reason was a bias in technological change, which favored white-collar over blue-collar workers.     

TRADE INTEGRATION,OUTSOURCING AND EMPLOYMENT IN AUSTRIA: A DECOMPOSITION APPROACH

Outsourcing and trade integration of advanced countries is debated with respect to employment effects, in particular for low educated workers – at least in relative terms. We study the employment effects – differentiated by educational attainment levels – of changes in the patterns of trade integration and outsourcing in the Austrian economy over the periods 1995–2000 and 2000–2005 using hierarchical decomposition analysis based on deflated input–output tables. Outsourcing is modeled as changes in the shares of domestically produced intermediates in total intermediates. A similar decomposition of the final demand vector allows us to draw conclusions on the overall employment effects of trade integration. The results suggest that the expected negative employment effects of outsourcing and rising import penetration have been overcompensated by increasing exports. Thus, the overall employment effects of Austrian trade integration have been positive for all educational attainment groups. However, whereas the total effects have been strongest for medium and high educated workers over the period 1995–2000, employment of low educated workers have been strongest and positively affected over the period 2000–2005. This pattern can be explained by a more sluggish export performance together with stronger negative effects of outsourcing and import penetration in medium and high-skill intensive products.     

European integration,productivity growth and real convergence: Evidence from the new member states

We estimate the determinants of labor productivity growth in 8 new European Union (EU) member states that joined the Union in 2004. Our focus is on the impact of globalization and EU integration efforts on labor productivity growth. Previous studies test the impact of trade using either exports or trade openness. We also test the impact of imports separately on labor productivity growth. Using panel data for 1995–2006 period, we find that globalization has mixed effects. FDI and exports improve productivity, but imports hurt it. Regarding domestic variables, we find that human capital is the most important source of labor productivity growth in the new member states. There is also considerable adjustment of labor productivity towards EU15 levels, indicating significant “catching up” and hence real convergence. Policy implications of the findings are also discussed.     

The growth of information workers in the US economy, 1950–2000: the role of technological change,computerization, and structural change

Using data from the decennial US Censuses of 1950, 1960, 1970, 1980, 1990, and 2000, I construct matrices of employment by 267 occupations and 64 industries and then aggregate the occupations into four categories: (i) knowledge producers; (ii) data processors; (iii) service workers; and (iv) goods-processing workers. I find that information workers (the sum of the first two categories) increased from 37% of the workforce in 1950 to 59% in 2000. Then, using an input–output decomposition analysis, I find that the growth in information workers was driven not by a shift in tastes toward information-intensive goods and services (as measured by the composition of final demand) but rather by a roughly equal combination of the substitution of information workers for goods and service workers within the structure of production of industries and the unbalanced growth effect (from differential rates of industry productivity growth). Finally, on the basis of regression analysis, I find that R&D expenditures and computer investment are positively associated with the growth in knowledge workers but negatively associated with the growth of data workers.     

Frontier Technology,Absorptive Capacity and Distance*

Recent literature on international technology diffusion has demonstrated the positive effect in foreign country productivity on the domestic economy. Using a sample of Organization for Economic Co‐operation and Development (OECD) manufacturing industries we search for evidence that the effect of this foreign technology varies according to the level of absorptive capacity and physical distance. We find evidence that both help to explain differences in the level of productivity across countries, but that absorptive capacity is quantitatively more important. Physical distance had a greater effect at the start of the time period and in industries in which trade is local and technology is high‐tech.     

Does economic globalization affect the level and volatility of labor demand by skill? New insights from the Tunisian manufacturing industries

The central aim of this paper is to assess the effects of economic globalization on the level and volatility of labor demand for different skill groups in Tunisia. Using a panel dataset covering six manufacturing industries between 1983 and 2009, three main findings are reported. First, exports and imports exert a positive impact only on the semi-skilled and skilled labor demand while foreign direct investment flows increase the demand for semi-skilled and unskilled workers. Second, the regional analysis suggests that exports to the European Union boost the demand for the semi-skilled and skilled labor. Imports from the rest of the world exert similar effects on the demand for these two categories of workers. It emerges also that imports from the European Union lead to a higher demand for skilled labor, which gives support to the validity of the skill-enhancing trade hypothesis in Tunisian industries. Finally, our findings suggest that both exports and imports rise the employment volatility associated with skilled workers. On the other hand, there is a weak evidence of increased employment volatility as a result of foreign direct investment flows.     

The Performance of Service Industries in Canada: A Real Value Analysis

The performance of service industries in Canada has been lower than that of good industries over the last four decades, with noticeable exceptions such as for railways and telecommunication carriers. Service industries were less economically (and technically) efficient in that they generated less output value (quantity) per hour worked (level and growth) or per combined unit of labour and capital (multifactor productivity growth) than good industries. The relative output price of services declined slightly over time compared with goods. At the disaggregated level, changing relative output prices were substantial and proved to be an important factor explaining the relative satisfactory economic performance of many service industries despite their low technical performance. Nevertheless, the output share of service industries increased over that period, sustained, mainly, by the growing recourse of all firms to outsourcing of services.     

Canada’s growing market integration with the U.S.—with a focus on trade

There was a marked increase in Canada-U.S. trade linkages over the 1990–98 period. The rise was pervasive across all Canadian regions except British Columbia. Of particular import, is the fact that all Canadian regions increased their trade linkages with U.S markets that are further away (in particular, with the South). About half of Canada’s growing trade ties with the U.S. are attributed to the increased trade intensity and fast growth of the high-tech industries (industrial machinery, and electrical & electronic products) and the motor vehicle industries. The strength of trade linkages involving resource and resource-based industries relative to other industries showed no significant change except for the Prairies. For the Prairies, the trade linkages in resource and resource-industries relative to other industries experienced a significant decline over the period.     

Canada's Global Competitiveness Challenge

A bstract . Any conclusions regarding Canada's competitiveness must be based on the criteria of total factor productivity rather than trade performance. The use of available data on merchandise export/import balance is misleading because merchandise trade , for instance, precludes trade in services. While trade performance criteria is less than sufficient in judging the competitiveness of Canada , close study of the total factor productivity criteria does not find evidence for the alleged "crisis of Canadian loss of competitiveness."     

Occupational and industrial mobility in the United States

Using the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, and using both the original and the new series of occupation and industry codes, we investigate occupational and industrial mobility of individuals over the 1969–1980 and 1981–1993 periods in the U.S. We find that workers changed both occupations and industries more frequently in the later period. We also find that for men occupational and industrial changes are associated with lower earnings, though this effect has lessened somewhat over time; while for women the results are mixed. Our results also indicate that older and better paid men are less likely to shift occupation or industry.     

Trade,technology and skills: Evidence from Turkish microdata

In this paper we report evidence on the relationship between trade openness, technology adoption and the relative demand for skilled labour in the Turkish manufacturing sector, using firm-level data over the period 1980–2001. In a dynamic panel data setting, using a unique database comprising data from 17,462 firms, we estimate an augmented cost share equation whereby the wage bill share of skilled workers in a given firm is related to international exposure and technology adoption.It emerges that R&D expenditures are positive and significantly related to skill upgrading. This result supports the skill-biased technological change argument in the case of a middle-income country such as Turkey.Moreover, the firm-level analysis reveals a positive impact of technological transfer from abroad, foreign ownership and exporting status on the demand for skills, highlighting the role of increasing international openness in fostering skill upgrading within firms.Our microdata also allow us to investigate the direct impact of import flows in shaping the relative demand for skills. The results show that those firms belonging to the sectors experiencing rapid increase in the share of inputs imported from industrialised countries also experience a higher increase in the labour cost share of skilled workers. This finding provides further support for the hypothesis that imports from industrialised countries imply a transfer of new technologies, in turn leading to a higher demand for skilled labour (the so-called skill-enhancing trade hypothesis).     

Sources of productivity growth: Evidence from the Mexican manufacturing sector

We study labor and total factor productivity in the Mexican manufacturing sector for the 1994 to 2002 period. Labor productivity increased at an annual rate of 3 percent, while total factor productivity has null or negative growth depending on the methodology used. We conduct several robustness checks by providing alternatives measures of productivity growth. Moreover, we investigate the sources of productivity growth by studying the impact of international trade, investment, quality of the labor force and labor market institutions.     

Investment in Fixed Capital Stock: Testing for the Impact of Sectoral and Systemic Uncertainty*

This paper applies current theory recognizing the irreversibility of investment, in order to test for the impact of uncertainty on investment expenditure for a middle income country. The contribution of the paper is unique in two respects. First, it employs dynamic heterogeneous panel estimation techniques not previously applied to investment functions. Secondly, it explicitly tests for the impact of both sectoral and systemic uncertainty on investment expenditure. We find that both sectoral (as measured by output volatility) and systemic uncertainty (as measured by political instability) have a negative impact on investment rates in a middle income country context. Liquidity constraints and growth in total factor productivity are found to have no impact on investment, while trade liberalization has the impact predicted by Heckscher‐Ohlin trade theory. Finally, we find complementarity effects between physical capital and skilled human capital, suggesting that South African educational policies may have hampered investment in physical capital as well as the growth performance of the economy. Policy implications emphasize the importance of lowering uncertainty for investors, and the need for sound human capital investment.     

基于环境负产出的能效动态Malmquist模型研究

本文旨在研究环境效率—能源效率—经济效率的"三位一体动态全要素生产率"。首先基于数据包络分析建立了环境约束下的能效动态Malmquist模型,定义了能效效率改变指数、污效效率改变指数和动态进步指数。通过对中国18个行业2000～2007年的数据分析,指出未考虑环境效应、动态效应的Malmquist模型会带来误判,进而揭示出在中国能效全要素生产率改变过程中,能源环境效应起到了不可忽略的作用,而动态效应则是最大的瓶颈,却没得到应有的重视。     

Substitution and complementarity between managers and subordinates: Evidence from British football

We use data on British football managers and teams over the 1994-2007 period to study substitution and complementarity between leaders and subordinates. We find for the Premier League (the highest level of competition) that, other things being equal, managers who themselves played at a higher level raise the productivity of less-skilled teams by more than that of highly skilled teams. This is consistent with the hypothesis that one function of a top manager is to communicate to subordinates the skills needed to succeed, since less skilled players have more to learn. However, we also find that managers with more accumulated professional managing experience raise the productivity of talented players by more than that of less-talented players. This is consistent with the hypothesis that a further function of successful managers in high-performance workplaces is to manage the egos of elite workers. Such a function is potentially more important the more accomplished the workers are-as indicated, in our data, by teams with greater payrolls.     

Productivity and Trade Orientation in UK Manufacturing*

We show that improvements in aggregate productivity in UK manufacturing during the first years after the implementation of the Euro, by the UK's main trading partners in Europe, are determined by both market share reallocation and within‐company productivity growth. Furthermore, we outline a structural methodology for estimating parameters of a production function linking the unobservable productivity to endogenous company‐level trade orientation, investment and exit decisions. This allows us to back out consistent and unbiased estimates of productivity dynamics by trade orientation of companies within four‐digit UK manufacturing industries using FAME data over the period 1994–2001. Our estimates of productivity dynamics indicate that improvements in aggregate productivity were mainly driven by market share reallocations away from inefficient and towards efficient exporting companies alongside productivity improvements within non‐exporting companies.