Identifying flight fatigue factors: An econometric modeling approach

The paper looks at responses of crewmembers of six Taiwan air carriers who were asked to report their levels of fatigue before takeoff and after landing. Ordinal probit models are employed to estimate three fatigue models for different flight operations and serve as vehicles to investigate flight fatigue factors and identify their relative significance. The top three factors for long haul flights are found to be sleep quality at home, sleep quality on aircraft and “nod-off “experiences; for regional flights, age, extra non-flying tasks on the ground, and experiences of fatigue during flight operations are important; and for domestic flights poor cockpit environment, age, and experiences of fatigue during flight operations are relevant.     

Cost savings from trajectory deviations in the European air space

Air transport deregulation has lead to an increase of air traffic, together with a reduction of air fares. Air fare reduction has narrowed operational margins of airlines, bringing financial and employment instability. This has brought airlines to pay increasing attention to flying costs reduction. Two important components of flying costs airlines can try to cut modifying the planned flight are en route charges and operational costs. We rely on Demand Data Repository (DDR2) data to calculate deviations from planned flight trajectories to analyse the extent to what airlines try to cut operational costs making shorter flights than planned if possible, and cut en route charges providing a planned flight with lower en route charges than the planned flight. Our findings show that there is no generalised strategy among airlines to reduce en-route charges asking for deviations of the planned route. On the other hand, airlines are achieving savings of operational costs regularly. Higher savings per nautical mile are obtained in night flights, with longer planned distance and operated by low cost carriers.     

Spatial concentration and connectivity of international passenger traffic at Brazilian airports

This paper examines concentration and connectivity of international passenger airport traffic in Brazil. The analysis considers seat supply and scheduled flights from 1999 to 2012. The 2000–2005 period was marked by concentration and limited international flight links, which was followed by the movement to recover capacity and connectivity from 2005 to 2010. Brazil started to liberalize bilateral agreements in 2002, and eventually moved towards the “open skies” concept in 2010, facilitating the process of operational de-concentration and increasing seat supply. The Brazilian government's liberalisation policy through bilateral agreements did not spark off a significant turnaround for national airlines; rather, the revived traffic growth was led by foreign airlines. This movement brought significant changes in the composition of international passenger traffic in Brazil, although changing little in terms of concentration and connectivity. The real change was the dominance of foreign airlines and seat distribution by regions, with the Latin America and Caribbean region shrinking to less than half of the market.     

The effects of global alliances on international flight frequencies: Some evidence from Italy

We collect half-yearly data on nonstop flight frequencies offered by carriers on routes originating from Italian regions to European countries in the period 1998–2010. We find that, as the share of flights belonging to global alliances increases, the number of flights offered by airlines simultaneously expands, especially in the case of full-service carriers. Moreover, there is also evidence that the number of global alliances has a positive impact on flight supply.     

Modelling airline flight cancellation decisions

In order to predict airline responses to Traffic Management Initiatives (TMIs), and reveal the underlying preference structures that shape these responses, we study US domestic airlines’ cancellation decisions in response to the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA)’s TMIs, in particular, to Ground Delay Programs (GDPs). By observing the actual flight-cancellation choices made by airline dispatchers, the airlines’ cancellation utility functions can be inferred through the use of binary choice models. The model captures how delays to a given flight and potential delay savings to other flights affect flight cancellation decisions. We also find larger, fuller, less frequent, shorter-distance, and spoke-bound flights are less likely to be cancelled, and that there is inter-airline variation in flight cancellation behaviour.     

An Exploratory analysis of flight delay propagation in China

Delay propagation is the flight departure delay caused by the arrival delay of pre-segment flight. Chinese airline market has suffered very poor on-time performance (OTP) in recent years. It is, however, unclear whether delay propagation prevails as one major source for such problem. This study first aims to empirically quantify delay propagation in the Chinese airline market. Specifically, we shed light on heterogenous levels of delay propagations across different airports and airlines. Then, the distinct delay propagation patterns in China are also discussed and compared with other developed airline markets (e.g., the US and Europe). Our estimation is based on OTP data for over 12 million Chinese flights covering the 2015–2017 period. Specifically, it is found that 10 min arrival delay of pre-segment flight within 1 hr before the departure lead to an average of 7.49 mins delay propagation for subsequent departure flight. Arrival delay of earlier pre-segments (1–2 and 2–3 hr before the departure) leads to much less delay propagation, due to longer ground buffer. Chinese airlines arrange longer ground and flight buffer than that of the US airlines to prevent the delay propagation from accumulating along the subsequent flights in a day. Thus, unlike the US market, delay propagation is not the major reason for poor OTP in China. In addition, delay propagation is less prevailing at the Chinese hub airport. This is because China has relied on point-to-point network, which does not require sophisticated schedule coordination. And the local passengers at these Chinese hub airports have higher time value such that the Chinese airlines also try to improve OTP at these hub airports to better serve these lucrative but time-sensitive local passengers. Unlike the European LCCs, Spring Airlines, the largest low-cost carrier (LCC) in China, outperforms major full-service carriers (FSCs) in controlling delay propagation. This finding may also apply to other Northeast Asian LCCs sharing common operational characteristics as Spring Airlines. Last, we find that airlines purposely tolerate moderate departure delays of up to 15 min, which is the threshold that defines delays, no matter whether the pre-segment flight arrives late or on-time. The relevant policy and managerial implications are also discussed.     

Drivers of airline loyalty: Evidence from the business travelers in China

This paper examines the key factors that determine business traveler loyalty toward full-service airlines in China. Based on literature review and panel interview, ten airline attributes under three categories were derived: (a) operational factors: safety, punctuality, and aircraft; (b) competitive factors: frequency of flights, schedule, frequent flyer program, ticket price, and reputation; and (c) attractive factors: in flight food & drinks and in flight staff service. We surveyed 2000 Chinese business travelers on domestic flights, obtaining 462 usable questionnaires. Hierarchical regression analysis reveals that reputation, in-flight service, frequent flyer program, and aircraft have the greatest influence in driving airline loyalty.     

Low-cost airlines,secondary airports,and state aid: An economic assessment of the Ryanair–Charleroi Airport agreement

This paper builds a vertical differentiation model to analyse the effects of subsidies, or lower aeronautical charges, for secondary airports on competition between low cost and full scheduled carriers. The Ryanair–Charleroi Airport agreement in Europe is used as an example and as a basis for the model. The main findings are that subsidization or lower airport charges benefit consumers and negatively affect incumbent airlines. However, they may be more affected by competition than by the subsidy. An empirical analysis provides a few insights on the influence of dominating airports in Ryanair fares. We conclude that this airline sets lower fares when flights depart from or arrive at dominated airports.     

Departure delays,the pricing of congestion,and expansion proposals at Chicago O’Hare Airport

Chicago's O’Hare airport is extremely congested, especially in the late afternoon and early evening. The paper uses a publicly available database to estimate the relationship between the number of flights wishing to depart and the delays they experience. This relationship is used to calculate congestion fees that provide airlines with incentives to move some flights out of the peak period and to slightly alter the scheduled departure time of other flights to avoid the rush of departures that occur on the hour. The very high fees at certain times of day point to the benefits that can be obtained from current plans to expand and reconfigure the airport to reduce delays in both good and bad weather.     

An airline's management strategies in a competitive air transport market

Over the last decade, the demand for domestic and international flights in Korea has increased substantially. To meet the strong flight demands, several low cost carriers have begun to offer flight services. In addition, full service carriers have been motivated to establish their own subsidiary low cost carriers to maintain their market share against rival low cost carriers. This paper studies the management strategies of three kinds of airlines - full service carrier, its subsidiary low cost carrier and rival low cost carrier - based on game theory in the competitive air transport market. Each airline is assumed to act as a player and chooses strategies regarding airfare, flight frequency, and the number of operating aircrafts for specific routes while maximizing its own profits. Demand leakages between the airlines are considered in the flight demand function according to the selected strategies of all airlines. Through various game situations reflecting realistic features, this study provides managerial insights that can be applied in the competitive air transport market.     

The impact of flight delays on passenger demand and societal welfare

US airline passengers increasingly have access to flight delay information from online sources. As a result, air passenger travel decisions can be expected to be influenced by delay information. In addition, delays affect airline operations, resulting in increased block times on routes and, in general, higher carrier costs and airfares. This paper examines the impact of flight delays on both passenger demand and airfares. Delays are calculated against scheduled block times as well as against more idealized feasible flight times. Based on econometric estimations, welfare impacts of flight delays are calculated. We find that flight delays on a route reduce passenger demand and raise airfares, producing significant decreases in both consumer and producer welfare. Since producer welfare effects are estimated to be three times as large as consumer welfare effects, we conclude that from an economic efficiency rationale, airlines should be required to pay for the bulk of flight delay remediation efforts.     

Airport choice and flight connectivity among domestic and international passengers – Empirical analysis using passenger movement survey data in Japan

This paper presents an empirical analysis of airport choice and passenger movement on international flights from local cities in Japan to Narita and Haneda Airports in the Tokyo metropolitan area. This is the first study to evaluate airport choice behavior in Japan empirically by using the micro data collected by Japan’s Ministry of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism in 2010 (i.e., when time slots for international long-haul flights were first assigned at Haneda). The analysis confirms that flight connectivity is a crucial element in airport choice.Further, Japanese airlines and their associated alliances are able to attract passengers arriving from local cities by using Haneda airport. Above all, we find that the introduction of long-haul international flights from Haneda has met the needs of a number of passengers arriving from local cities in Japan owing to the convenience of the domestic flight network, especially for business purpose passengers.     

An analysis of the greenhouse gas emissions profile of airlines flying the Australian international market

International commercial flights (with the exception of flights between countries in European Union including Iceland, Norway and Liechtenstein) are currently not subject to greenhouse gas emission reduction regulation. To formulate effective and efficiency policy to manage greenhouse gas emissions from air transport, policy makers need to determine the emissions profiles of all airlines currently flying into their country or region. In this paper, we use 2012 data on airlines' aircraft characteristics, passenger load and cargo load (obtained from statistics reported by Australian Government Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics) to estimate the volume and carbon efficiency on each international route flying to and from Australia. This is the first study to use actual passenger and cargo load data to determine the greenhouse gas (specifically CO₂) efficiency of airlines operating in the Australian international aviation market. Airlines' CO₂ emission profile is dependent on many factors including but not limited to the aircraft used, payload, route taken, weather conditions. Our results reveal that the airlines’ CO₂ emission profile is not only dependent on the aircraft used and the number of passengers but also the amount of cargo on each flight.     

The origin–destination airport choice for all-cargo aircraft operations in Europe

In this paper, we analyze the origin–destination airport choice for freighter operations of combination and all-cargo carriers in Europe. First, we discuss the choice process of airlines qualitatively. Next, using a stated choice experiment, we show that the presence of forwarders at an airport is the primary factor in explaining airlines’ choices, especially for airlines serving main airports. For airlines primarily serving regional airports, the possibility for night-time flights is most important. Finally, the presence of passenger operations at an airport is not a significant factor and the level of origin–destination demand is of limited importance.     

The geography of freighter aircraft operations in the Pacific Basin

The expansion of scheduled freighter aircraft operations is a prominent feature of the contemporary international airline industry. By 2000, more than 1600 freighter aircraft were in use worldwide, with much of that capacity deployed on routes in the Pacific Basin. This paper evaluates the factors that shape the geography of scheduled freighter aircraft operations with particular attention given to the place of individual Asian cities within that geography. The paper also examines the separate spatial strategies exhibited by the scheduled freighter operations of two important categories of cargo airlines: the express carriers like FedEx and the combination carriers like Lufthansa.     

Modeling the flight departure delay using survival analysis in South Korea

The air transportation industry in South Korea has been growing since the 2000s. Although the number of air passengers has continuously increased, the flight delay rate has fluctuated from year to year. In this study, a survival analysis was conducted to compare each flight delay in terms of airport/time slot and to evaluate the actual impacts of major variables on flight delays. We performed multiple analyses using survival analysis methodologies, including the Kaplan–Meier estimator, log-rank test, and Cox proportional hazards model. In particular, we applied a turnaround buffer as a key variable in Cox proportional hazards model analysis. The survival curve showed that more international flights departed earlier than scheduled or with minimal delay than domestic flights. However, international flights tended to have more long-term delays. The log-rank test indicated that international flights had a wider distribution of delay times than domestic flights. In the Cox proportional hazards analysis, under the condition in which the actual flight turnaround time was less than 120 min, the results indicated that the longer the actual turnaround buffer was, the less frequently the delays occurred. By using these analyses, we could numerically verify the actual delay trends in South Korea. The results can be used as fundamental resources for political and economic decision-making processes in the aviation industry.     

Entry effect of low-cost carriers on airport-pairs demand model using market concentration approach

The trend of open sky policies and growth of low-cost airlines, the topic of airport-pairs demand is gradually being addressed in the golden aviation circle of Northeast Asia. The variety of flight services among the four major metropolises with dual-airport systems leads to a competition-cooperation relationship existing between various airports and airlines. Therefore, this study investigates the causal relationship between the route-level passenger demand and influential factors using aggregate data collected through website observations. The empirical study focuses on direct flights of airport-pair routes among Taipei, Shanghai, Seoul, and Tokyo. Results of the passenger regression model indicate that frequency, code-share, and morning flights have positive impacts on increasing passenger numbers for airlines. Further, the market concentration degree of Herfindahl-Hirschman Index and entry effect of low-cost carriers are important for the route-level passenger demand. In addition, routes with departures and arrivals in hub airports have a considerable attraction relative to other airport-pair routes. Finally, the proposed passenger model performs well in predicting market share, especially for routes with high demand.     

Advance purchase behaviors of air passengers: A continuous logit model

Modeling the advance purchase behaviors of air passengers is essential when airlines develop revenue management strategies. Therefore, this study empirically investigates advance purchase behaviors based on the air ticket transaction data by using a continuous logit model. The estimation results show that advance purchase behaviors are significantly affected by price, price uncertainty, time of day (morning, afternoon and evening flight), days of week (flight on Friday), months of year (peak or off-peak seasons), and consecutive holiday. Accordingly, different pricing strategies should be used for different flights to maximize revenue.     

Determinants of wave-system structures of network airlines at hub airports

This paper attempted to analyze the factors influencing the existence and configuration of wave-system structures of large network airlines at hub airports based on the statistical data of daily flight schedules. A bootstrapped binary logistic regression model was used to analyze the relationship between wave-system structure and its influential factors. Further, a partial least squared regression model was employed to uncover the determinants of wave-system structures' configuration. It is found that the interaction effects of two types of flight rates positively determine the existence of a wave-system structure, and the rate of airline's daily flights had the biggest impact on the configurations of wave-system structures.     

Detecting periodic patterns of arrival delay

This study identifies the periodic patterns of arrival delay for non-stop domestic flights at the Orlando International Airport during 2002–2003. Cyclic variations in air travel demand and weather at the airport were observed and their consequent effects on flight delay were investigated. This study detected the frequencies of any regularly repeating delay patterns and then identified the factors associated with the detected frequencies of delay. These sequential tasks called the “two-stage approach” were performed using a mathematical frequency analysis and statistical analysis techniques. The results of the frequency analysis showed that arrival delay displayed daily, weekly and seasonal patterns of variation. The results of the statistical analysis showed that time of day, day of week, season, flight distance, precipitation at MCO and scheduled time intervals between successive flights were significantly correlated with arrival delay.