Publish or Perish? The Increasing Importance of Publications for Prospective Economics Professors in Austria,Germany and Switzerland

Abstract. Tenure decisions depend, among other factors, on a candidate's career age and publication record. We associate publications with journal articles indexed in EconLit and measure publication output in equivalents of both top‐five journal articles and European Economic Review (EER) articles. We find that the average age of a professor in the year of his/her first appointment is 38, i.e. he or she is appointed approximately eight years after completing the PhD. Between 1970 and 2006, the average publication record at the time of the first appointment is equivalent to 1.5 standardized top‐five articles or 2.3 standardized EER articles. Publication records vary across subfields and have become more substantial over time. We predict that someone aspiring to a tenured position after 2011 should aim at an equivalent of four standardized top‐five articles or six standardized EER articles.     

Major league baseball’s Moneyball at age 15: a re-appraisal

In the 15 years since publication of the book Moneyball: The Art of Winning an Unfair Game in 2003, major-league baseball (MLB) has seen the embrace of analytics by both fans and teams. Using 45 seasons of MLB data, since the introduction of the designated-hitter in the American League in 1973, the present study validates the central premise in Moneyball regarding the importance of certain performance metrics, such as on-base percentage (OBP). The terms in our empirical model are constructed such that our results permit a straightforward comparison of the relative contribution of each factor towards MLB teams’ success in winning games. We also provide evidence indicating that MLB teams have moved to align their payrolls with Moneyball analytics in the years following the book’s publication.     

Wage distribution in Japan, 1989–2003

Abstract. This study examines the recent trend of the Japanese wage distribution based on a micro‐level data set from the Basic Survey on Wage Structure (1989–2003). We perform several decomposition analyses of changes in the distribution of the hourly wage. We observe that lower returns to education and years of tenure contribute to a diminishing income disparity between groups for both sexes. A larger variance within a group contributes to the wage disparity for males, while an increased heterogeneity of workers' attributes contributes to the wage disparity for females. The Dinardo, Fortin, and Lemieux decomposition confirms the basic findings with a parametric variance decomposition.     

A bottom-up re-estimation of global fisheries subsidies

Using a recently developed database of fisheries subsidies for 148 maritime countries spanning 1989 to the present, total fisheries subsidies for the year 2003 is computed. A key feature of our estimation approach is that it explicitly deals with missing data from official sources, and includes estimates of subsidies to developing country fisheries. Our analysis suggests that global fisheries subsidies for 2003 are between US25 and 29 billion, which is higher than an earlier World Bank estimate of between US 25 and 29 billion, which is higher than an earlier World Bank estimate of between US 14–20 billion. This new estimate is lower than our 2000 global subsidies estimate of US$ 30–34 billion. We find that fuel subsidies compose about 15–30% of total global fishing subsidies, and that capacity enhancing subsidies sum to US$ 30–34 billion. We find that fuel subsidies compose about 15–30% of total global fishing subsidies, and that capacity enhancing subsidies sum to US 16 billion or about 60% of the total. These results imply that the global community is paying the fishing industry billions each year to continue fishing even when it would not be profitable otherwise—effectively funding the over-exploitation of marine resources.     

CRISES AND GOVERNMENT: SOME EMPIRICAL EVIDENCE

We examine a panel of 70 countries during 1966–2010 and utilize Reinhart and Rogoff crisis dates to estimate the effects of crises on the size and scope of government over both 5‐year and 10‐year horizons. We also estimate cross‐section regressions using 40‐year (1970–2010) changes in government variables. In general, the estimated effects of crises on government size/scope are statistically insignificant. We report reasonably robust evidence that inflation and currency crises lead to decreases in the extent of government regulations throughout an economy over a 10‐year horizon. Also, over the 40‐year period, countries that spent more years in crisis are associated with weaker legal systems and property rights. The size and scope of government appear to be persistent to the extent that even crisis episodes fail to leave a significant mark upon them. A notable exception may be that, over 40‐year periods, countries that spend more years in crisis are associated with weaker legal systems and property rights. (JEL E02, O11, O43)     

中国上市公司盈余管理的频率与幅度

盈余管理频率和幅度是投资者保护程度在现实经济中的具体体现。然而,已有文献在盈余管理频率或者幅度方面所提供的证据还远远不足以揭示客观事实。本文运用所有研究样本的报告盈余信息,通过假设报告盈余服从混合正态分布,运用参数估计的方法对阈值处的盈余管理频率和幅度进行推断。研究结论表明,中国上市公司从1995年至2003年间都存在为避免报告亏损而进行的盈余管理。1996年、1997年以及2001年至2003年的盈余管理频率和幅度较高,并且2001年至2003年逐年呈上升趋势。2001年至2003年平均有64·4%的亏损公司在阈值0点上进行盈余管理并达到避免报告亏损的目的,平均盈余管理幅度为提高ROA数据0·065。研究还发现2001年至2003年期间的盈余管理更加具有隐蔽性。     

Effects of Tightening Smoking Regulations on Take‐up and Cessation of Smoking

We use a nationally representative Australian panel survey that allows us to track individuals’ smoking behaviour from 2001 to 2003, a period during which new tobacco regulations came into effect in four of the eight state and territory jurisdictions. We exploit this variation in regulations over time and across jurisdictions to produce estimates of the effects of tighter smoking regulations on smoking behaviour within the year the regulations were introduced. Although increased (non‐pecuniary) costs of smoking will almost certainly have some negative effects on smoking, our analysis suggests that effects on smoking rates in the short term are negligible.     

A competitive model of economic geography

Summary. Most of the literature argues that competitive analysis has nothing interesting to say about location. This paper argues, to the contrary, that a competitive model can have something interesting to say about location, provided that locations are not identical and transportation costs are not zero. To do this, it constructs a competitive intertemporal general equilibrium model and applies it to a suggestive example of migration.Received: 25 August 2003, Revised: 18 December 2003, JEL Classification Numbers: D5, R0.Our interest in this topic has been stimulated over the years by many conversations with Marcus Berliant. We thank an anonymous referee for exceptionally careful and useful comments. Financial support from the UCLA Academic Committee on Research (Ellickson, Zame) and the National Science Foundation (Zame) is gratefully acknowledged. Views expressed here are those of the authors and do not necessary reflect the views of any funding agency.     

Costs and quality of life effects of the first year of renal replacement therapy in one Finnish treatment centre

Abstract

Objective: The main objective of the study was to assess the cost and quality of life (QoL) effects of elective dialysis patients during the first year of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) treatment in one Finnish treatment centre.

Methods: A prospective case-series study was performed involving all elective dialysis patients (n=29) in a Finnish dialysis unit during 2003–2004. Direct costs of ESRD treatment were obtained from the hospital database and the Social Insurance Institution. The QoL effects were measured at the initiation of treatment, at 6 and at 12 months using 15D, a generic QoL instrument.

Results: The average cost of ESRD treatment was €69,085. The improvement in the patients' QoL score was statistically and clinically significant during the first treatment year. The most significant changes were seen in the dimensions of breathing and vitality. The condition of patients commencing haemodialysis (HD) was more severe than that of patients commencing peritoneal dialysis (PD) as indicated by worse residual kidney function and poorer quality of life at the initiation.

Conclusions: In this small patient population, treatment of ESRD during the first year seemed to improve or maintain the QoL of the patients.     

Trade-offs in the allocation of prosecution resources: an opportunity cost of overcriminalization

One in every five citizens has a criminal record in Korea. Scarce prosecution resources have been severely skewed toward prosecuting more ‘legislated crime’ than ‘conventional crime’. We estimate the opportunity cost of this prosecutory pattern in terms of spillovers to conventional crimes. The cost was found to be substantial. For example, in 2003, the total spillovers accounted for approximately 25% of the increase in conventional crimes for 3 years from 2000 because of the disproportionate prosecutory focus on legislated crimes compared with that of the 1990s. This article has relevance to those countries with an overcriminalizing trend for legislated crimes.     

A Note on the Wage Effects of the 1972 Raising of the School Leaving Age in Scotland and Northern Ireland

In this note, we use the UK Labour Force Survey to estimate the wage return to an additional year of schooling for Scotland and Northern Ireland exploiting the 1972 Raising of the School Leaving Age (RoSLA). Prior literature on this topic has consistently ignored both countries in a UK context, likely due to an incorrect belief that they were not affected by the 1972 RoSLA until some years later. We demonstrate that both countries were affected by the education reform in 1972 and our estimates suggest a positive effect on hourly wages for Scotland.     

Quality and quantity in primary care mixed‐payment models: evidence from family health organizations in Ontario

Abstract We study the impact of a mixed capitation model (the Family Health Organization, FHO) on quality and quantity outcomes among primary care physicians in Ontario. Using a panel of administrative data covering one year before and two years after the FHO model was introduced, we find that physicians in the FHO model provide about 6% to 7% fewer services and visits per day, but are between 7% and 11% more likely to achieve preventive care quality targets. These results suggest that the mixed capitation model with contractible quality indicators may be welfare improving relative to the FFS model.     

Social learning with private and common values

Summary. We consider an environment where individuals sequentially choose among several actions. The payoff to an individual depends on her action choice, the state of the world, and an idiosyncratic, privately observed preference shock. Under weak conditions, as the number of individuals increases, the sequence of choices always reveals the state of the world. This contrasts with the familiar result for pure common-value environments where the state is never learned, resulting in herds or informational cascades. The medium run dynamics to convergence can be very complex and non-monotone: posterior beliefs may be concentrated on a wrong state for a long time, shifting suddenly to the correct state.Received: 6 January 2005, Revised: 5 May 2005, JEL Classification Numbers: C72, D82.Jacob K. Goeree: Correspondence toFinancial support from the National Science Foundation NSF (SBR-0098400 and SES-0079301) and the Alfred P. Sloan Foundation is gratefully acknowledged. We thank Richard McKelvey posthumously for insights and conjectures about information aggregation that helped shape our thinking about the problem. We also acknowledge helpful comments from Kim Border, Tilman Börgers, Bogachen Celen, Luis Corchon, Matthew Jackson and seminar participants at University College London, the University of Arizona, Universitat Autonoma de Barcelona, the California Institute of Technology, the 2003 annual meeting of ESA in Pittsburgh, the 2003 Malaga Workshop on Social Choice and Welfare Economics, the 2003 SAET meetings in Rhodos, and the 2003 ESSET meetings in Gerzensee.     

Work productivity loss due to flares in patients with chronic gout refractory to conventional therapy

Abstract

Objective:

Joint pain and swelling during gout flares may lead to considerable morbidity and disability, having an impact on patient work productivity and social participation. The objective of this study was to assess how gout flares affect these activities in patients with chronic gout refractory to conventional therapy.

Methods:

A 1-year prospective observational study was conducted among patients with symptomatic disease in the United States in 2001. Inclusion criteria required patients (1) to be age 18 years or older, (2) to have documented, crystal-proven gout, (3) to have symptomatic gout, and (4) to be intolerant or unresponsive to conventional therapy, reflected by SUA?≥?6.0?mg/dL. Patients were evaluated every 2 months. At each visit, patients completed a gout diary, which included number of flares experienced, duration and severity of each flare, and whether the flare caused: (1) work loss, (2) missed appointments or social events, or (3) impairment of self-care activities. The Short-Form Health Survey (SF-36) was also completed each visit.

Results:

Analyses were restricted to those who completed the first 6 months of the study (n?=?81). Mean number of flares per patient per year was 8.8. Of the patients who were <65 years, 78% reported at least 1 work day lost due to a gout attack during the year. Mean annual work day loss for those <65 years was 25.1 days. A total of 545 of patients reported at least one flare per year that impaired social activities, with a mean of 17.1 social days lost and 52% reported at least one flare per year that compromised normal self-care activities, with a mean of 16.9 days impairment. Correlations between the diary reports and activity-related questions from the SF-36 were significantly positive.

Limitations:

The study is limited by small sample size, lack of reference group, and inability to explicitly collect employment information. Age under 65 years was used as a proxy for employment eligibility.

Conclusion:

Flares in patients with chronic gout refractory to conventional therapy significantly affect patient work productivity and social activities.     

THE DISTRIBUTION OF RESEARCH PERFORMANCE ACROSS AUSTRALIAN UNIVERSITIES, 1992–2003, AND ITS IMPLICATIONS FOR 'BUILDING DIVERSITY'

We contribute to the debate on research performance by comparing the distribution of research inputs and outputs across Australian universities during 1992–2003. We have calculated annual Gini coefficients for various performance measures and Lorenz curves for the final year of the study. Various findings are evident. Research-input measures have remained relatively unevenly distributed across universities. Output measures were more evenly distributed and this exhibited a gradual and rather consistent convergence through time, supporting the view that the research output is being generated gradually more equally across Australia's universities. The exclusion of the 'Group of Eight' (Go8) universities results in a more even distribution of performance. However, in 2003 this group took the lion's share of research inputs but produced a smaller share of outputs. Our findings are relevant to current funding policy discussion.     

An ascending double auction

We show why the failure of the affiliation assumption prevents the double auction from achieving efficient outcomes when values are interdependent. This motivates the study of an ascending price version of the double auction. It is shown that when there is a sufficiently large, but still finite, number of sellers, this mechanism has an approximate perfect Bayesian equilibrium in which traders continue bidding if and only if their true estimates of the ‘value’ of the object being traded exceed the current price. This equilibrium is ex post efficient and has a rational expectations property in the sense that along the equilibrium path traders appear to have made the best possible trades conditional on information revealed by the trading process. We thank two anonymous referees and Dan Kovenock, the Editor, whose detailed comments and suggestions have allowed us to substantially improve the paper. We also thank seminar participants at University of Toronto, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Summer 2003 North American Meetings of the Econometric Society, 2004 NSF Decentralization Conference for their comments.     

Do national soccer results really impact on the stock market?

This study is a response to Klein et al. (2008), which was highly critical of earlier work by Ashton et al. (2003). This work considering the link between international soccer results and stock market returns was challenged by Klein et al. (2008), who reject the presence and importance of this link. In response, this work provides a reassessment of the link between international soccer results and stock market returns within Ashton et al. (2003). This new analysis extends the original work by using a larger dataset, employing an extended range of tests and allowing for outliers. It is reported that, contrary to the findings of Klein et al. (2008), the link between international soccer results and stock market prices does indeed exist particularly within the sample period 1984–2002 used by Ashton et al. (2003). After extending the dataset to include observations from 2002 until 2009, it is reported that the effect on stock market returns has declined in importance over this period, particularly the impact of wins.     

Left-side Relatively Weak Increases in Risk and Their Comparative Statics

This paper proposes a new concept, a left-side relatively weak increase in risk (L-RWIR) order, that extends the definition of a relatively weak increase in risk (RWIR) order. We show that, for the class of linear payoffs, one can obtain an appealing comparative statics result for L-RWIR shifts imposing additional restrictions on risk preferences of a risk-averse decision maker.JEL classification: D81.revised version received October 10, 2003Acknowledgements The authors would like to thank an anonymous referee for insightful comments and useful suggestions.     

A class of solvable stochastic dividend optimization problems: on the general impact of flexibility on valuation

Summary. We consider the determination of an optimal dividend policy in the presence of cash flow uncertainty and transaction costs. We state a set of weak conditions under which the optimal dividend policy can be explicitly characterized for a broad class of diffusions modelling the underlying cash flow dynamics and demonstrate that increased dividend policy flexibility does not only increase the maximal expected cumulative present value of the future dividends, it also increases the rate at which this value grows (i.e. Tobin’s marginal q). We also prove that increased transaction costs result into larger but less frequent dividend payments.Received: 23 November 2003, Revised: 23 March 2005, JEL Classification Numbers: G35, G31, C44, Q23.Luis H.R. Alvarez: Correspondence toLuis H. R. Alvarez acknowledges the financial support from the Foundation for the Promotion of the Actuarial Profession, the Finnish Insurance Society, the Yrjö Jahnsson Foundation, and the Research Unit of Economic Structures and Growth (RUESG) at the University of Helsinki. The authors are grateful to an anonymous referee for constructive comments and suggested improvements on an earlier version of this study.