Monetary policy implications of short-term capital flows in Turkey

The advent of global financial crisis in 2008, unleashed volatile short term capital flows to the emerging markets. This has forced many central banks in the developing world to adopt innovative policy measures to address concerns related to financial instability caused by the volatile nature of capital flows. In 2010 Turkish Central Bank included financial stability in addition to price stability as one of primary goals of its monetary policy. Several macro-prudential measures had been taken and ‘corridor system’ of setting the short-term policy rates had been introduced. In this paper, we have estimated an extended Taylor rule, using error correction model, to examine the impact of global financial factors in impacting the setting up of the policy rate in the pre and post 2010 periods in Turkey. It has been found that in the post-2010 period, global financial factors and monetary policy stance of the core economy, USA, have become major factor(s) in shaping up the monetary policy. Particularly our results of variance decomposition show that global financial indicators such as, VIX and EMBI have taken prominence in the setting of the short-term policy rate. This has not only made the domestic monetary more dependent on external factors but has also made pro-cyclical in nature.     

A Return to ‘Civilisational Geopolitics’ in the Mediterranean? Changing Geopolitical Images of the European Union and Turkey in the Post-Cold War Era

The prevalence of the discourse of ideological geopolitics during the Cold War meant that both Turkey and the EU belonged to the West by virtue of their ideological orientation. In the absence of this prevalent geopolitical discourse, both the EU and Turkey have spent the 1990s trying to locate themselves geographically. Drawing on the literature on critical approaches to political geography and international relations, this article seeks to answer the question of whether the EU's post-Cold War security discourse on the Mediterranean in general and on relations with Turkey in particular point to a return to the earlier discourse of civilisational geopolitics. The article also presents a reading of Turkish policy makers’ attempts to resist EU's representation of Turkey in ‘non-Europe’ (as with the ‘Middle East’ or the ‘Mediterranean’) as boundary-producing practices which have served to underline the boundaries between the ‘West’ and the ‘non-West’.     

The International Labour Organization and the ambivalent politics of financial inclusion in West Africa

This article examines the role of the International Labour Organization (ILO) in promoting ‘financial inclusion’ in West Africa. The role of the ILO in microfinance and financial inclusion has often been overlooked, in contrast to the role played by the World Bank, G20 and like institutions. The ILO is significant here because it suggests a number of ambiguities and important political dynamics that have gone overlooked in previous critical discussions of microcredit, which have often focused on the politics of commercialisation, indebtedness and accumulation by dispossession. This article draws instead on Gramsci’s concepts of subalternity and organic crisis to suggest that the politics of ‘financial inclusion’ in practice are often shaped as much by the political dynamics engendered by the erosion of postcolonial order as by the imperatives of accumulation. The argument is illustrated empirically by examining ILO activities on microinsurance and ‘inclusive finance for workers’ in West Africa, with an emphasis on Senegal.     

Economic policy uncertainty and economic activity in Turkey

We construct economic policy uncertainty (EPU) index for Turkey based on newspaper coverage frequency. The EPU index reflects the frequency counts of articles in major Turkish newspapers that contain specific terms related to economy, policy and uncertainty. The EPU index rises around national elections (2002, 2007 and 2015), domestic uncertainty periods (2008 and 2013), domestic and global financial crisis periods (2001 and 2009) and the Euro area debt crisis in 2011. The investigation of the impact of EPU on economic activity reveals that policy uncertainty has adverse impacts on economic growth, consumption and investment in Turkey. Remarkable is that high uncertainty leads to a greater investment decline than output and consumption.     

Measuring exchange rate misalignment in Turkey

Turkey has embarked an extensive dis-inflation and stabilization program in December 1999. The programme exclusively relied on a nominally pegged (anchored) exchange rate system for dis-inflation and on fiscal austerity. In February 2001, however, Turkey experienced a severe financial crisis which necessiated the dismantling of the exchange rate anchor and a switch to a regime of free float.

This article proposes a new methodology to measure exchange rate misalignment for Turkey over the period January 1992 to December 2001. In a single equation framework, the model estimates the real exchange rate within a time varying parameter model, where a return-to-normality assumption about the parameters is assumed. Contrary to common belief, it is found that, except the initial four months of the stabilization programme, the Turkish lira remained undervalued for most of 2000. Also, one observes a pattern where the lira has been overvalued after the financial crisis of 1994 until 1998, and has displayed a tendency of undervaluation after then.     

Financial Globalization,Social Exclusion and Financial Crisis

This paper suggests one set of mechanisms that ties financial globalization processes to local dynamics of financial inclusion or exclusion. Specifically, this paper explores the worldwide reconsideration of financial firms’ strategies that has accompanied financial globalization. It is shown that the neoliberal and asymmetric‐information approaches to credit markets and financial crises in developing economies overlook these dimensions of financial globalization because of their tendency to focus on representative credit markets. Banks’ strategic shift has led to the global homogenization and stratification of financial practices—and this in turn has been a key driver of processes of financial exclusion. Financial exclusion then involves bifurcation within financial markets, so that different markets serve different portions of the household and business population. This analysis suggests a reconstruction of Minsky’s microfoundational model of the origins of financial fragility and crisis, which shifts from Minsky’s emphasis on a representative borrower–lender relationship to a situation of borrower–lender relationships in bifurcated markets.     

Border Crossings between Georgia and Turkey: The Sarp Land Border Gate

The Sarp land border gate between Turkey and Georgia has become Turkey’s gateway to the East in recent years. With a large number of individuals crossing every day, it is also a labour gate, where irregular Georgian immigrants cross the border for work in Turkey. In general, border policies are constructed and reconstructed in a dynamic process in which economic, security, ethnopolitical, geopolitical and cultural paradigms interact. The aim of this paper is to observe the complementary and conflicting relationship and negotiation process between economic and security paradigms in particular, with a focus on the perceptions of the officers of the border administration and state bureaucracy at the local level. To this end, field research was carried out consisting of interviews with Turkish state officials responsible for immigration and border crossing in the Sarp gate region. The article sheds light on the interaction between various agencies, actors and stakeholders in border policymaking at the regional level. It also elaborates on the profiles both of incoming immigrants employed as irregular workers and of deportees. The results of the qualitative study show that the dominance of the economic paradigm that underlies the main framework of Georgia-Turkey relations overrides security concerns between the two countries, thus necessitating a more flexible implementation of laws. The field research illustrates that implementation of laws and regulations at the local level varies and while some groups of irregular immigrants are allowed to work, others are not and, what is more, are deported.     

Capital flows to an emerging financial market in Turkey

Increased globalization in financial markets implies that the percentage of all shares under foreign ownership in domestic stock markets has been rising. Speculative attacks on the foreign exchange market in February 2001 led to deep economic crisis in Turkey. This article will explore various indicators of the financial crisis in Turkey based on a macro-model. The foreign share of the domestic economy is a key variable to establish the degree of vulnerability during a financial crisis. An empirical investigation shows that the percentage of shares owned by foreigners on the Istanbul Stock Exchange (ISE) has been increasing since 1995 and is currently about 50 percent of the total. Furthermore, the general index of stock market prices in 1999 was at its highest level since 1995. This would imply that the general price index of the stock market is another strong indicator of an impending financial crisis. An empirical investigation of Turkish data based on a theoretical model is presented in this paper. An unexpected capital outflow would certainly cause exchange rate fluctuations, balance of payments problems, and international debt crisis. Hot money inflows boost share prices and keep the real exchange rate high. However, short-term stay of capital implies a sudden capital outflow that creates financial crisis, which results in international debt crisis. This in turn leads to a further increase in loans from the International Monetary Fund (IMF). Relatively high stock market prices may suggest an impending financial crisis. Using Turkish stock market price data, an impending financial crisis can be statistically predicted.     

Hedging neoliberalism: derivatives as state policy in Mexico

This article fills the gap in the critical political economy literature by acknowledging the adoption of derivatives as state policy in middle-income countries such as Mexico. The article argues that the Mexican state has turned derivatives into a policy instrument to deal with the capitalist contradictions intensified by neoliberalism. This has created a particular institutional setting that favours large firms and financial investors over working classes. The article examines the role of derivatives as policy instruments in Mexico through the Mexican Ministry of Agriculture’s use of corn futures options during the 2007–8 food crisis and Ministry of Finance's and Central Bank's adoption of hedging strategies through oil derivatives and US dollar put options to preserve the state budget and increase foreign reserves respectively during the 2007–10 global financial crisis.     

Fuelled Power: Oil,Financiers and Central Bank Policy in Nigeria

While the literature on business power and global finance has illuminated the ways in which financial institutions limit the policy autonomy of states in developing countries, we know much less about the circumstances under which the power of financiers is undermined. In this article, I advance explanations of these circumstances by arguing that state access to natural resource revenues reduces the power of financial institutions and enhances the capacity of the state to pursue central bank policies which violate the interests of major financiers. I employ a case study of central bank policy in Nigeria to probe this argument and find evidence that supports the claim that whenever the Nigerian government's access to resource revenues increased, the state's capacity to diverge from financiers’ preferred central bank policies and to advance its own preferences increased as well. The analysis provides the basis for broader propositions about the policy space of developing countries vis-à-vis financial institutions and the variability of structural power.     

亚洲金融区域主义的政治逻辑

本文探讨了"合法性"与"权力"在金融区域主义方面的因果效应。当前以G7为主导的全球体制中合法性的明显缺失和国家间权力格局的变化影响了东亚的政策决策。东亚国家寻求"抗衡性"的战略,也即在保持着与以G7为中心的全球金融体制合作关系的情况下,通过发展自身的区域性制度(或其他潜在方案)以避免对前者的过度依赖。上述观察意味着,除非现存全球金融体制解决了合法性问题,并且当前(有利于东亚的)权力转移发生逆转,亚洲新兴经济体不会将应对国际金融问题的全部希望寄于全球性的解决方案。     

Forecasting Turkey’s Credit Ratings with Multivariate Grey Model and Grey Relational Analysis

The concept of credit rating rooted back to mid-nineteenth century has become one of the most important elements in the world economy together with the globalization period gradually accelerating in the last two decades and increasing the interaction and sensitivity in the international markets. With the globalization and deepening in the financial markets; the effect, reliability and stability of knowledge of the actors who are in charge for directing the global capital flows have quite a big importance in terms of the decisions to be made in the future. In this process, credit rating agencies eliminating the information asymmetry between the countries and institutions who want to create financial resource by borrowing from the savings owners and foreign institutions. Credit ratings determined by the mentioned organizations are accepted as an indicator of the countries to meet the financial obligations in other words their creditworthiness. For Turkey’s economy having a structure with a high level of external financing needs in terms of accelerating the growth and development process, it is inevitable to have an international creditworthiness increasing long-term investment tendency meeting foreign capitals’ trust search. In this study, firstly the determinants of the credit ratings given by credit rating agencies are determined and then forecasting Turkey’s future credit ratings by combining them with multivariate grey model and grey relational analysis are performed.

     

Kemalist Eurasianism: An Emerging Geopolitical Discourse in Turkey

Over the past decade or so, there has been a convergence between the Eurasianist and Kemalist ideologies in Turkey. A number of Kemalist and Socialist intellectual and political actors together with sections of the military have started to articulate Eurasianism (Avrasyac?l?k in Turkish) as a new geopolitical discourse for Turkey and as an alternative to Turkey's pro-Western foreign policy orientation. In this perspective, Eurasianism stands for a political, economic and cultural alliance with ‘Eurasian countries’, such as Russia, Iran, and Turkic countries in Central Asia, as well as Pakistan, India and China. This article aims to deepen the analyses carried out thus far on this emerging geopolitical discourse. To this end, it contextualises the emergence of the Eurasianism in Turkey within the wider social, political and historical context of which it forms a part, including the framework of asymmetrical political and economic relations that developed between Turkey and its Western allies in the post–Cold War period.     

Structural changes in exports of an emerging economy: Case of Turkey

This paper indicates that Turkish exports are subject to structural changes as Turkey integrates into global production networks. Integration, which leads vertical specialization in production and changes in the commodity composition of Turkish exports in favor of non-traditional commodities, paces up during economic reform periods. As the export shares of non-traditional commodities, which have higher import and income sensitivity but lower real exchange rate elasticity, increases, coefficients of the aggregate export function change accordingly. Nevertheless, high import and income elasticity of exports imply that the global growth pattern plays a significant role in determining exports of Turkey.     

“New” monetary policy instruments and exchange rate volatility

Turkish economy has been suffering from rises in financial flows since the last two decades that these flows have raised financial stability challenges across emerging economies including Turkey. Regarding the ability of the central banks to decrease the financial risks including volatile exchange rate, the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey has designed and implemented a new policy mix. In this study, we investigated the effect of new policy instruments (IRC, RRR and ROM) on the volatilities of US dollar, euro, British pound and basket rate for Turkish economy between January 2, 2002 and December 9, 2014 by using ARMA-GARCH, ARMA-EGARCH and SWARCH models. From the estimation results, we could not reach enough evidence that the IRC and RRR instruments could decrease the volatilities of exchange rates under investigation while the ROM instrument was successful, especially on US dollar and basket rate. We also found strong evidence in favour of asymmetric volatility, indicating that the positive shocks led to greater exchange rate volatility than negative ones.     

Debtfarism and the Violence of Financial Inclusion: The Case of the Payday Lending Industry

The official development literature is replete with studies about the alleged benefits of financial inclusion in reducing poverty in the global South. Few analyses have sought to critically explore advanced forms of financial inclusion in the global North, particularly with regard to the highly lucrative and controversial payday lending industry in the USA. This article fills this void by examining the political economic landscape of payday lending in Ohio. In contrast to the mainstream literature, our analysis suggests that the payday lending industry is not a natural feature of the market that has led to universal benefits for all. Instead, we argue that payday lending not only benefits private creditors at the expense of the working poor, but also that the latter have been made to rely on these expensive loans to meet basic subsistence needs largely through the structural violence of labor market restructuring and neoliberal forms of governance, such as workfarism and ‘debtfarism.’     

Inflation Expectations and Monetary Policy Surprises*

We estimate monetary policy surprises for European consumers over time, based on monetary policy changes that were unanticipated according to consumers’ stated beliefs. We find that such monetary policy surprises have the opposite impact on inflation expectations from the impact found when assuming that consumers are well informed. Relaxing the latter assumption by focusing on consumers’ stated beliefs, unanticipated increases in the interest rate raise inflation expectations before the 2008 financial crisis. This is consistent with imperfect information theoretical settings where interest rate hikes are interpreted as positive news about the state of the economy by consumers who know that policymakers have relatively more information.     

Did the rising importance of services decelerate overall productivity improvement of Turkey during 2002–2007?

This paper answers the question of what would have been the growth rate of aggregate productivity in Turkey between 2002 and 2007, had it realized China’s rates of productivity growth in agriculture, industry, and services. It does this in a three-sector general equilibrium model calibrated to the Turkish economy over the 2002–2007 period. The main findings are: (i) Turkey would have had much higher aggregate productivity growth over this period if it had experienced China’s service sector productivity growth; (ii) very low productivity growth rates in finance and in the non-market service sector are the main culprits behind Turkey’s weak service-sector performance.     

Brand Turkey: Liminal Identity and its Limits

Since the 2000s, Turkish policymakers and private sector interests have combined representations of Turkey as both Western and Eastern with a branding approach to identity in foreign policy, trade and investment promotion, and cultural sector activities. This article analyses how the commodification of its liminal identity as a dual identity allowed Turkey to invoke different aspects of its identity in the West and the East in ways that catered to both audiences and enabled the pursuit of different political and economic objectives. However, the article also notes how this branding strategy was limited by the national identity debates and dominant geopolitical discourses that continued to situate the West and East as mutually exclusive and binary opposite identity markers. Overall, the case of Turkey underscores the complex relationship between branding, identity, and discourse, which has thus far received scant attention in the literature.     

Costs of a missing FTA: the case of Turkey and Algeria

Turkey has been deeply integrated with the EU, its largest trading partner, particularly following the Customs Union agreement in 1996. However, the free trade agreements (FTAs) signed by the EU with third party countries may create some unfair competitive pressures, market share and welfare losses for Turkey. This study investigates the impact of the FTA signed by Algeria and the EU in 2005 on Turkey’s trade flows. Covering 181 countries, a difference-in-differences analysis embedded in an extended gravity framework is employed to quantify the trade effects of the EU-Algeria FTA for the period of 1996–2013. Our findings suggest that bilateral trade between Turkey and Algeria is affected adversely due to the FTA. The counterfactual analysis shows that Turkish exports and imports to/from Algeria could have been 12 and 17% higher, respectively, had there been no FTA between the EU and Algeria.