From Receding to Reseeding: Industrial Policy,Governance Strategies and Neoliberal Resilience in Post-crisis Britain

ABSTRACT

Industrial policy has been on the agenda of British policy elites since the 2008 financial crisis, particularly since Theresa May became Prime Minister in 2016. This has been seen as a challenge to pre-crisis norms of economic governance associated with neoliberalism. This article explores key aspects of industrial policy development in post-crisis Britain – new forms of vertical support for industry, local government reform, and the public financing of private sector R&D – in order to sketch a new understanding of political and ideological change. It focuses on the institutional mechanisms through which industrial strategy will ostensibly be implemented, including subnational and private spheres of governance. The article argues that recent industrial policy developments do not represent the receding of neoliberalism, but rather have provided opportunities for the reseeding of neoliberal norms in British economic statecraft. The strategy has reinforced forms of state machinery through which pre-crisis elite practice can be maintained and legitimated. By demonstrating that the apparent revival of state intervention in the wake of capitalist crises must not be assumed automatically to challenge pre-crisis economic orders, and highlighting the crucial role of exigent political circumstances, the article makes an important contribution to the literature on neoliberal resilience.     

Trade patterns and institutional change in East Asia

We investigate how trade patterns – institutionally intensive exports (IIX) – affect institutional quality in East Asia compared to the rest of the world, and whether the effect changed due to the Asian financial crisis. To examine this, we use panel data of 117 countries for the period 1988–2007. Our fixed effect model estimation reveals that the effect of IIX on institutional quality is negative and significant for East Asia, while the effect is insignificant for the rest of the world. The negative effect in East Asia is more pronounced for the five East Asian countries that were strongly affected by the crisis – South Korea, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines and Thailand – than for other East Asian countries. Furthermore, our results reveal that the negative effect for East Asia does not change significantly after the crisis, both in the short and long term, and that improvement in institutional quality after the crisis is not different from that of the rest of the world. This suggests that the crisis had no significant impact on East Asia's institutional quality or on the effects of IIX on institutional quality.     

THE FUTURE OF PUBLIC ENTERPRISES: PERSPECTIVES FROM THE CANADIAN EXPERIENCE

ABSTRACT: Public enterprises have been an integral part of the involvement of the state in the economy for most of the 20th century. After 1980, privatization has been the dominant trend until the 2008–2010 economic crisis when new nationalizations happened. Ownership is only an element of a complex system of relations between a public enterprise and its institutional environment where the role of the board of directors, the mechanisms of coordination, the role of senior civil servants, etc. come to play. Using the Canadian experience with public enterprises, we suggest in this article that public enterprises could be interesting economic policy instruments in the future as in the past if such an economic policy exists. In other words, privatization did not solve the control issue over many large enterprises. Improved corporate governance should be considered. This article aims at improving the understanding of how by focusing on various aspects of the governance of public enterprises on their potential use and work. In Canada, public enterprises have been used to face the recent global crisis but they also come from a long tradition of intervention in the economy, a tradition closer to the European than the American. After reviewing recent developments in their governance, paths for future research are proposed.     

What made Economists so Politically Influential? Governance-related Ideas and Institutional Entrepreneurship in the Economic Liberalisation of Israel and beyond

Liberal economists are known to be one of the driving forces behind economic liberalisation in various countries, but how did they become so politically influential? Constructivists generally suggest that during economic crises liberal economists persuaded decision-makers to adopt pro-market policy ideas as solutions for economic turbulence. While this answer is true, it is also only partial because it disregards the role played by governance-related ideas and institutional entrepreneurship in the political actions of liberal economists. I argue that ideas regarding decision-making mechanisms provided liberal economists with the basis for creatively exploiting pre-liberalisation institutions, such as central banks and central budget offices, through which these economists enhanced their long-term political influence. An in-depth examination of a paradigmatic case of economic liberalisation driven by liberal economists – Israel's Stabilisation Plan – exemplifies that argument. The existence of like-minded economists and similar pre-liberalisation policy-making institutions in many other countries hints that the Israeli experience is not unique.     

Varieties of Economic Crisis,Varieties of Ideational Change: How and Why Financial Regulation and Macroeconomic Policy Differ

One of the principal tasks facing post-crash academic political economy is to analyse patterns of ideational change and the conditions that produce such change. What has been missing from the existing literature on ideational change at times of crises however, is a sense of how processes of persuasive struggle, and how the success of those ‘norm entrepreneurs’ arguing for ideational change is shaped by two contextual variables: the most immediate material symptoms and problems that a crisis displays (the variety of crisis); and the institutional character of the policy subsystem that agents have to operate within to affect change. Introducing these two variables into our accounts of persuasive struggle and ideational change enables us to deepen our understanding of the dynamics of ideational change at times of crisis. The article identifies that a quite rapid and radical intellectual change has been evident in the field of financial regulation in the form of an embrace of a macroprudential frame. In contrast in the field of macroeconomic policy – both monetary and fiscal policy, many pre-crash beliefs remain prominent, there is evidence of ideational stickiness and inertia, and despite some policy experimentation, overarching policy frameworks and their rationales have not been overhauled. The article applies Peter Hall's framework of three orders of policy changes to help illuminate and explain the variation in patterns of change in the fields of financial regulation and macroeconomic policy since the financial crash of 2008. The different patterns of ideational change in macroeconomic policy and financial regulation in the post-crash period can be explained by timing and variety of crisis; sequencing of policy change; and institutional political differences between micro policy sub systems and macro policy systems.     

Multilateral Organisations and the Limits to International Energy Cooperation

Surging world energy prices, increasing oil market volatility and a nascent ‘energy transition’ are posing major challenges for global energy governance. In response, there has been a proliferation in the number of multilateral bodies addressing energy issues in recent years, and a wide range of organisations now claim a role in facilitating intergovernmental energy cooperation. However, the practical achievements of these organisations have been very poor, with all suffering difficulties that have limited their ability to promote shared energy interests between states. This article examines the dynamics of multilateral energy organisations, arguing that the political economy features of energy – securitisation and attendant patterns of economic nationalism – explain why they have failed to develop more robust cooperative mechanisms. Ten global-level organisations are evaluated and found to suffer from membership, design or commitment issues that limit their effectiveness in global energy governance. These challenges are linked to the securitisation of energy, which has led governments to favour low-cost soft-law approaches over potentially more effective hard-law institutional designs. Moreover, the securitisation of energy poses limits for how far multilateral energy cooperation can proceed and means that contemporary efforts to strengthen these organisations are unlikely to succeed in coming years.     

Insider and Outsider Strategies of Influence: The BRICS’ Dualistic Approach Towards Informal Institutions

ABSTRACT

The challenge of ‘emerging’ countries in the 21st century has been conducted in a much more peaceful manner than in past eras when power transitions were most commonly accompanied by war. The hallmark of this peaceful transition has been the elevation of the G20, a forum in which established and emerging powers jointly deal with global economic issues and which – despite or precisely because of its informal character – has become the prime forum for global economic governance. Significantly, however, this new openness and flexibility of the international system and its increasing informalism have not only provided an avenue for emerging powers to be integrated into the inner circle of global economic governance, but have also allowed them to set up alternative institutions. By forming their own exclusive BRICS group in parallel to their membership in the G20, emerging powers have pursued a dualistic strategy that allows them to be simultaneously institutional ‘insiders’ and ‘outsiders’. The article focuses on this seemingly ambiguous international behaviour and explains why the BRICS have opted for this dualistic approach. Far from being socialised into the established system, the oppositional psychology of the past has not disappeared completely.     

Innis Lecture: Environmental crises: past, present, and future

Abstract .  Environmental crises are distinguished by rapid and largely unexpected changes in environmental quality that are difficult if not impossible to reverse. Examples would be major extinctions and significant degradations of an ecosystem. I argue there are three preconditions for crisis: failures in governance, an ecological system exhibiting a tipping point, and an economy/environment interaction with positive feedbacks. I develop a simple model to illustrate how a crisis may arise, and draw on our knowledge of past and present crises to highlight the mechanisms involved. I then speculate as to whether climate change is indeed a crisis in the making.     

Marx's Legacy,Régulation Theory and Contemporary Capitalism

ABSTRACT

The 2008 financial crisis has challenged the merits of standard economic theories and sparked surprising references to Marxist analyses. A monetary economy is prone to crises, the interaction of competition with capital–labour relations launches relentless accumulation and over-accumulation crises exacerbate the built-in contradictions of the capitalist mode of production. Nevertheless, until now, these imbalances have not unfolded into its rapid and complete collapse. From the social and political struggles of labour and citizens, the 1929 crisis and finally the Second World War, new configurations emerge for the wage–labour nexus, the form of competition and the monetary and credit regime. These delineate an unprecedented accumulation regime, Fordism. In turn, Fordism enters a structural crisis and a dramatic change in institutionalized compromises favours a still different accumulation regime (finance-led) that evolved from one speculative boom to another till the 2008 American financial collapse. Thus the mobilization of Marx's foundational hypotheses by Régulation theory allows a better understanding than most alternative theories of major contemporary stylized facts: productivity slow-down and social polarization in mature economies, tensions between capitalism and democracy, new industrial capitalisms and limits to globalization.     

论周期中资本边际效率的演进、扭曲与崩溃——关于美国“次贷危机”的政治经济学解读

文章通过凯恩斯的资本边际效率(MEC)理论探讨了经济危机发生的条件、可能区域以及演进的机理,并对次贷危机进行了实证考察.文章认为,次贷危机是在美国政治周期推动下,制度结构和社会条件变迁改变危机进程所造成的危机叠加.在此基础上,文章对流动性过剩说、经济结构失衡说、负债消费模式说、国际金融体系说、新自由主义制度说等观点进行了辨析.     

Figures of mockery. The cultural disqualification of physiocracy (1760–1790)

Abstract

By studying seriously a literature generally dismissed by the historians of economics – satires, tales, theatrical works, pamphlets, poems, and songs that mock with humour the physiocrats, their fellow-travellers, and their doctrines – this paper reveals what was made of them and their ideas, who did this, and the underlying whys and wherefores. Three major forms of critiques are considered. The first, that of a Church (the Encyclopédistes) fighting a rising heresy (the physiocrats), concludes that the fanaticism of the latter is incompatible with the virtues of tolerance that must characterise the true philosophes. In the second form, the Encyclopédistes and the Économistes are assimilated. Both led to the destruction of the old taxonomy of society and even to death, to famine and to a chaos of transgression. The third form concerns the dubious parallel between the y-king of ancient China and the Tableau économique. These three types of cultural writings capture and explain something new – physiocratic political economy – thanks to well-known mental constructs. It stages characters and facts in order to give meaning to events the causes of which are difficult to explain. It is, beyond all the irony and mockery, an attempt to understand and to defuse new fears resulting from this incredible endeavour to change reality.     

Liberalization,Regulatory Delays and Vulnerability to Systemic Banking Crisis

This work aims at contributing to the improvement of the early warning systems of banking crises using a new approach accounting for model uncertainty. We show that a multinomial logit model based on Bayesian model averaging (BMA) is a good strategy to predict banking crisis. To do this, we argue that differences in vulnerability to banking crisis can be largely explained by an asymmetry between financial market evolution and regulation update on a sample of 49 developed and developing countries between 1980 and 2010. When markets are liberalized, competition pushes bankers to take more risks and take advantage of regulatory delays thus increasing crises probabilities. Our empirical evidence supports that crisis probability is higher in country liberalizing their banking system when regulation is not updated. We developed an early warning system for systemic banking crises based on the multinomial logit model. Its main difference to existing prediction models and its contribution to the literature is that it is intended to identify and resolve what is called by Bussiere and Fratzscher [(2006). Towards a new early warning system of financial crises. Journal of International Money and Finance, 25(6), 953–973] as post-crisis bias in binomial models and to develop a new methodology of leading indicators selection based on BMA. Overall, our model predicts all banking crises during our sample period.     

Well-being and the Great Recession in Spain

This letter assesses the impact of the Great Recession on well-being in Spanish provinces using two alternative composite indicators of objective well-being that include somewhat different dimensions. Whereas the crisis notably eroded economic well-being, its impact on overall well-being – which in addition to economic dimensions also includes non-economic ones – was imperceptible. This result points to the need to carefully define and assess well-being in empirical analyses.     

Post-Crisis Experiments in Development Finance Architectures: A Hirschmanian Perspective On ‘Productive Incoherence’

Abstract

The Asian and especially the global crisis of 2008 have catalyzed decentralization of the developing world’s financial governance architecture. I understand this state of affairs via the concept of “productive incoherence” which is apparent in a denser, multilayered development financial architecture that is emerging as a consequence of heterogeneous practical adjustments to changing circumstances rather than as the embodiment of a coherent doctrine. Drawing on Albert Hirschman, I argue that the absence of an encompassing theoretical blueprint for a new economic system—i.e. a new “ism” to replace neoliberalism—is in fact a vitally important virtue. If we cannot live without a new “ism,” I propose “Hirschmanian Possibilism” as a new doctrine—one that rejects an overarching theoretical framework from which to deduce the singly appropriate institutional structure of the economy. Hirschmanian Possibilism asserts instead the value of productive incoherence as a framework for pursuing democratic, ethically viable development institutions.     

公共危机中的政府协作治理能力——中国省级新冠肺炎疫情防控的文本分析

协作治理,是应对公共危机形成的一种新的治理形式。本文使用文本分析法考察了2020年2月末各省区市政府在本次疫情应对政策中协作治理能力的四种关键机制：促进式顶层领导、开放式参与路径、明确的协作职责、透明信息披露的运用情形及运用效果。研究结果显示,30个省区市都在运用协作治理机制抗击疫情、恢复经济。四种机制的运用存在差异,整体上沿海地区运用协作治理机制更充分。进一步的分析显示政府协作治理机制的运用显著促进了各省份疫情中第三产业的经济恢复水平,原因在于其改善了省级层面经济恢复的市场环境。本文的研究结论表明,强大的政府协作治理机制有助于社会快速有效应对公共危机,也是优化市场环境的政府治理新途径。本文为政府协作治理的机制构成与实际效果提供了重要补充,在公共危机应对的背景下发展了政府治理的理论内容,为公共危机情境下政府职能转变思路提供了参考。     

Firm value in commonly uncertain times: the divergent effects of corporate governance and CSR

Economic uncertainty disrupts firms’ ability to create value. Most related literature examines how various organizational characteristics affect value under extreme conditions – the global financial crisis. However, recent work in quantifying economic uncertainty now makes it possible to take a more nuanced approach in investigating the conditions under which this value reduction can be mitigated during more ‘commonly uncertain’ periods. In this paper we analyze the effects of corporate governance mechanisms and social responsibility investments on Tobin’s q across 13 years and 40 countries. Evidence suggests that shareholder-centric corporate governance policies restrict board and executive flexibility during uncertain times, and therefore stifle their ability to react effectively to adverse macroeconomic changes. We also find that CSR initiatives serve as insurance in that they preserve value under uncertainty by acting as a reservoir of social capital.     

Property,Power, and Public Choice: An Inquiry into Law and Economics

This article briefly describes the evolution of the recent economic crisis based on different theories toward my own interpretation of it. The deregulation wave of the last decades has created new profit opportunities in various contexts — from labor flexibility to privatization and from financialization to globalization — so promoting a renewed process of capitalist accumulation after the stagflation of the 1970s. This has taken place at the cost of a wide-ranging increase in inequality and instability, thus bringing a cascade of crises, including the latest one of 2008.     

Supra-National Money and the Euro Crisis: Lessons from Karl Polanyi

The paper seeks to examine some of the key features of Karl Polanyi’s ideas explaining the collapse of the pre-Great Depression unregulated market system by using his broad framework of analysis, as developed in The Great Transformation and published over 70 years ago, to explain the present Eurozone crisis. Emphasis is placed on the two key institutions of the pre-Depression era, namely haute finance and the gold standard, as well as his heterodox views on the nature and origin of money to shed light on the evolving crisis within the Eurozone. On the basis of Polanyi’s insights, the paper concludes that the cause of the latter crisis is similar and it lies primarily in the adoption of stateless or supra-national money that is even more restrictive on the behaviour of national authorities than the conditions imposed under the gold standard. The current situation of quasi-permanent austerity in the Eurozone is the inevitable consequence of its monetary architecture, and it will remain a long-term feature of Europe, unless significant institutional changes are put in place to bridge the gap between money and the state.     

Globalisation, Growth and Crises: The View from Latin America

In this paper I analyse the role of openness and globalisation in Latin America's economic development. The paper is divided into two distinct parts: I first ( Sections 2 to 4 ) provide an analysis of 60 years of the region's economic history, that go from the launching of the Alliance for Progress by the Kennedy administration in 1961, to the formulation and implementation of the market oriented reforms of the Washington Consensus in the 1990s and 2000s. I conclude that Latin America's history has been characterised by low growth, high inflation and recurrent external crises. In Section 5 I deal formally with the costs of crises and I estimate a number of variance component models of the dynamics of growth. I find that external crises have been more costly in Latin America than in the rest of the world. I also find that the cost of external crises has been inversely related to the degree of openness.     

Comments on “The Corporate State,Economic Performance,and Social Policy”

This paper provides an introduction to the Minsky-Veblen Cycles as a specific example of pluralist economic thinking in the context of the recent global economic crisis. It illustrates how pluralism can be applied to economic research. Specifically, the Minsky-Veblen Cycles combine three elements of institutional and post-Keynesian thought to explain key features of the current crisis. These elements are (1) John Maynard Keynes's postulate of effective demand, (2) Hyman Minsky's financial instability hypothesis, and (3) Thorstein Veblen's concept of conspicuous consumption. In this paper, we have a two-fold approach to them: First, we systematize the connection between the Minsky-Veblen Cycles as a theoretical argument and the epistemological rationale of a pluralist approach to economics. Second, we contrast the implications of our approach for incorporating behavioral assumptions in macroeconomic arguments to mainstream claims for a "microfoundation" of macroeconomic theory.