中国公共租赁住房研究进展与热点趋势的文献计量分析

为厘清国内公共租赁住房研究领域的整体发展脉络、热点及前沿,采用CiteSpace和VOSviewer软件,对来自中国社会科学引文索引(CSSCI)数据库中2002—2020年关于公共租赁住房与保障性住房的280篇期刊文献进行计量分析.研究发现:国内公共租赁住房研究从2008年起步入快速发展阶段;重庆大学、中国人民大学等研究机构的发文量较高;该领域的知识基础涉及城市空间发展、准入与退出、发展模式、定价、政策制度研究等方面;融资模式、定价、退出机制、住房政策等是目前的研究热点,未来研究与产业影响、社区管理、居民福利等相关.     

Housing Markets in China and Policy Implications： Comovement or Ripple Effect

The overheated housing market has recently become a top priority of the Chinese authorities and whether the ripple effect exists is key to understanding this housing issue. The present paper uses a cointegration estimation technique for six first-tier Chinese cities during the 2003-2013 period to show that the comovements among housing prices in China are fully reflected in a long-run equilibrium. Using the Toda- Yamamoto causality test, the ripple effect is found to be characterized by a lead -lag relationship. More importantly, it is found that Beo＇ing is the main source of housing price appreciation in China, and should be targeted as the regulatory object to efficiently resolve the troubles in this increasingly high housing-price era.     

公共住宅秩序与公共住宅政策

文章提出公共住宅秩序的概念,认为公共住宅秩序是利益相关者利益冲突与协调的结果,公共住宅政策有效与否应当针对特定的公共住宅秩序而言.而后,结合人类"知识问题"和有限理性等两方面对公共政策制定进行分析,认为公共政策规则性低效率是客观存在的,并认为提高公共政策效率的途径在于建立一种机制,用以反映动态的公共住宅秩序,用以运用尽可能多的政策相关者的知识.最后对美国和我国的公共政策设计进行比较分析,并提出改进我国公共政策设计效率的措施.     

Asymmetric Fluctuating Behavior of China's Housing Prices

The present study explains the reasons for the imbalanced development of the Chinese housing market. Using the quantile autoregression unit‐root test, we examine housing prices in China's five major cities. The results show that the rising and falling of housing prices in these cities exhibits asymmetric reversion. When housing prices fall, market capital is highly sensitive to housing prices, and housing prices resist the pressure to fall further. However, when housing prices rise, the housing market becomes imbalanced, with housing prices tending to overreact in an upturn. The results of this study indicate that when housing prices rise irrationally, the government should intervene in the housing market promptly to prevent housing bubbles.     

近年来房价过快上涨的原因探析——从住宅的特殊性考察

近年来,我国城镇住宅价格不断过快高涨,房价问题成为全国的焦点。住宅价格高涨的原因很多,住宅本身的特殊性是根本原因。本文尝试从住宅性质的角度来分析价格过快上涨的原因。住宅是必需品,超出基本需求的高档住宅就成为奢侈品,住宅还具有储藏财富功能。房价的急剧攀升带来一系列负面影响。本文根据住宅的特殊性,针对房价过快上涨提出以下建议:保证居民合理的住宅需求,抑制高档住宅需求,限制住宅市场的投资需求。     

Population Aging and Housing Consumption： A Nonlinear Relationship in China

Mass migration of rural workers to cities will inevitably increase urban housing demand. However, the scale of vacant urban housing will increase in future as a result of the population aging and the rising number of empty nesters. Therefore, demographic transition may not only increase housing demand, but also increase housing supply. Using an overlapping generations model, the present paper investigates＇ the impact of demographic transition on housing consumption. We find that there is a nonlinear relationship between the elderly dependency ratio and housing consumption in China. With the deepening of population aging, housing consumption will increase; when the elderly dependency ratio reaches a turning point, housing consumption will decrease. The turning point of the nonlinear curve also depends on population mobility. A greater degree of population mobility will result in a delayed turning point. Furthermore, the turning point of the nonlinear curve will emerge when China＇s elderly dependency ratio reaches a value of 32 percent in 2025. This means that over the next decade, China should continue to increase the level of housing supply,     

Housing Wealth, Financial Wealth and Consumption in China

The paper investigates the relationship between changes in asset wealth and the trend movements of household consumption in urban China. Using the vector error correction cointegration model we demonstrate that there is a unique long-run cointegrating relationship between household consumption, disposable income, financial wealth and housing wealth in urban China. We find that housing wealth is the only factor that restores the long-run equilibrium relationship when the cointegrated system is disturbed by an external shock. In addition, our permanent-transitory variance decomposition analysis indicates that nearly all variance in the movement of consumption is permanent, supporting the classical random walk hypothesis of consumption behavior. However, a large proportion of variance in the short-run movements of housing wealth is found to be transitory.     

The Impact of Social Housing Developments on Nearby Property Prices: a Nelson Mandela Bay Case Study

Social housing projects often face substantial “Not‐in‐my‐backyard” (NIMBY) sentiment and, as a result, are frequently plagued by local opposition from communities who argue that nearby property prices will be affected adversely by these developments. International hedonic pricing studies conducted have, however, produced mixed results with some concluding that social housing developments may in fact lead to an improvement in surrounding property values. There is, however, a paucity of South African evidence. This study considers the validity of the most pervasive NIMBY argument, the claim that social housing developments negatively affect nearby property values, by considering the property prices of 170 single‐family homes in the Walmer neighbourhood, Nelson Mandela Bay, as a function of their proximity to an existing low‐cost housing development. The results of this study indicate that in the case of one Nelson Mandela Bay low‐cost housing development, a negative impact is exerted on the property values of nearby houses.     

香港公屋政策的反思和启示

香港早期公屋建设为社会发展提供安全网,支持香港经济转型并促进经济发展。1987年开始实施的长远房屋策略促进了房地产业发展,使房地产成为影响公屋政策重要因素。此后房委会改组为财政自主机构、停建居屋和及消减公屋建设量等改革措施对公屋政策发展的产生影响。保障居民的居住权是住房政策的核心,住房保障政策应该作为一项重要的社会政策而非经济政策的补充。内地应该借鉴香港等地的实践经验,在经济上避免对房地产业的过分依赖,并由政府主导建立住房保障制度保障居民的居住权利,同时通过政府的主导和扶持保证住房保障政策的公平性。     

What Drove Housing Wealth Inequality in China?

Although China is experiencing a deterioration in wealth distribution where housing is playing a dominant role, this issue has received scant research attention despite its importance. Combining four rounds of the China Household Finance Survey (CHFS) data, this paper measures and discusses wealth inequality in China, with a special emphasis on the contribution of housing. Our analysis reveals that housing is the largest contributor to wealth inequality, responsible for around 70 percent of total wealth inequality, and its contribution has been increasing over time. Our research efforts have focused on the housing wealth disparity, exploring its composition from alternative perspectives. The results show that housing wealth inequality has also been rising over time and an absolute majority of housing wealth inequality is due to within‐group gaps. Finally, we employ Wan's (2004) regression‐based decomposition methodology to quantify the contributions of different determinants to housing wealth disparity in China, and to demonstrate serious biases in the conventional approach that is often used to analyze housing wealth inequality.     

公共服务设施步行可达性对住宅价格的影响——基于累积机会的可达性度量方法

构建节能环保低碳的“绿色交通体系”是目前解决城市交通及其一系列衍生问题的重要举措。“将生活与服务混在一起”对于提升步行效能、促进步行和降低机动交通需求有重要的现实意义。公共服务设施步行可达性,反映居民获取公共服务设施的难易程度,对住宅价格具有资本化效应。文章以厦门岛1840个普通多/高层住宅为样本,通过累积机会法评价教育、商业、医疗和文体4种公共服务设施的步行可达性,并构建特征价格方程来检验公共品在住宅市场的资本化方向与程度。研究发现,教育、医疗和商业3类公共服务设施的规划布局已资本化入住宅价格：教育和商业服务步行可达性对住宅价格有正向影响,而二/三甲医院步行可达性有负向影响;省示范小学步行可达性对房价的正向影响大于重点中学;市区级文化体育中心对房价的影响不显著;此外,建筑面积、小区内部环境、商业中心距离等因素对房价都有显著的影响。特征价格模型也实证估计了各特征变量对住宅价格的影响程度。     

城市住房产品配置效率分析

随着我国人口向城市转移,城市住房需求矛盾日渐突出,解决城市住房合理供给问题十分迫切。城市住房产品具有准公共性,完全由市场提供或公共提供都会造成社会总收益的损失。优化我国城市住房产品配置效率措施应为采取混合提供方式,坚持市场化供给,加大小户型、低总价住房供给,平抑过高房价,保持房价平稳增涨。     

Continuity with change: A review of Zimbabwe's public sector urban low‐income housing production system

This article reviews Zimbabwe's public sector urban low‐income housing production system, in over one hundred years of urbanisation marked by changes in governments, political economies, ideologies and urban systems. By examining important features in organisation, construction, costing, finance and allocation, the study reveals that in essence. Zimbabwe's public sector housing production system has not changed significantly since the early years of urbanisation. The consistency and resilience of the more important features, both in the colonial and post‐colonial eras, overshadow what changes there have been.     

城市化中的公共住房问题与政策建议

分析我国城市化进程中住房问题形成的机理以及公共住房发展现状,文章揭示了公共住房建设速度滞后于城市化发展速度的导因.针对这些问题文章给出的推进城市化进程中公共住房发展的政策建议是,完善公共住房政策法规,加快<住房保障法>立法进度并尽快实施;优化管理机制;转变城市化发展观念,加快推动公共住房发展;积极拓宽公共住房的筹资渠道等.     

An Empirical Analysis on Regional Influential Factors of Housing Prices in China

Using the Pooled Data of housing market of 30 provinces during 1995-2003, this paper investigates the micro-level influence factors of housing prices fluctuation in China. We have found out that income, cost and lagged housing prices are important factors to housing prices fluctuation. The influence factors do not change with time, but vary in different regions. In addition, cost and lagged housing prices are not only the influence factors of the state housing prices, but also the notable impact factors to each region. Thus, we suggest that the government should take different policies in different regions, control the demander and supplier and guide fight expectations.     

基于Logit模型的“蚁族”人群公租房申请意愿研究——来自广州市的调查数据

采用问卷调查方法,运用Logit模型对广州市"蚁族"人群公租房申请意愿影响因素进行统计调查分析。通过对13个影响因素进行检验,研究结果表明民众对公租房政策的了解程度、公租房申请手续繁琐程度、理想的公租房面积、公租房布局、公租房项目离工作地点距离等因素显著影响"蚁族"人群公租房申请意愿。提出公租房项目开发要重视对申请方的实际需求调查,要对显著影响公租房申请意愿的因素加以控制,从而以市场需求为导向,从供给侧角度优化公租房政策,提升"蚁族"人群公租房申请意愿。     

新加坡公共住房分配体系研究

伴随着新加坡经济40余年的持续增长，其公共住房发展取得了巨大成功。基于新加坡住房体系和公共住房发展概况，回顾新加坡公共住房分配体系演变历程，对比分析当前新加坡实施的各种公共住房分配制度并对其进行分类，试图从整体上把握新加坡公共住房分配体系的特点。文章得出结论：新加坡公共住房分配体系是一个动态的、不断完善的体系。该体系中各种不同的分配制度都有各自的适用性，并且相互问互为补充，为不同时期公共住房的发展目标服务。     

房地产税抑制房价的有效性分析及对策建议

我国房价自2003年以来持续走高,而推动房价过快上涨的因素是复杂多变的,因此畸高房价已经成为我国公众和政府的关注焦点。为了抑制房价的过快增长,我国政府采取了一系列措施,特别是不断调整房地产的税收政策。本文从我国房地产价格的现状出发,浅析房地产税对房价的影响机理,以1999年—2009年的房地产税收和房价的相关数据为基础,运用计量经济学软件分环节对房地产税调控房价的有效性进行实证分析,并最终提出有针对性的建议。     

土地制度改革:中国有效应对全社会住房需求的重要保证

中央政府近年来大力推进保障性住房体系建设。本文讨论了目前中国大规模保障性住房建设所取得的进展,并分析了过快推进保障性住房所可能存在的经济可持续性、融资渠道、地方政府激励与分配公平等诸多需要解决的问题。住房保障与保障性住房是两个有关联、但不完全一致的概念,通过土地和财政配套体制改革,中国完全可以以市场化的方式解决绝大部分新增城市化人口的居住问题,并同时实现地方财政从预算外土地财政向以财产税、土地增值税为主体的预算内财政转型,实现户籍制度改革有效突破,为经济带来新的增长点。这些改革将大大降低政府直接建设保障性住房的财政与管理压力,而配合以合适的金融体制改革实现保障性住房融资机制的突破,完全可以有效应对全社会住房需求的重大挑战。     

房价与地价关系的国际比较研究

文章通过比较分析国内外地价占房价的比例发现,我国地价占房价的比重与土地资源相对富裕的欧美发达国家美国、瑞典比较接近,远低于土地资源相对稀缺的亚洲发达国家和地区。土地稀缺程度、经济发展水平、政府政策和城市规划是影响房价与地价关系的主要因素。