INTRODUCTION TO A STUDY OF INTRAHOUSEHOLD RESOURCE ALLOCATION AND GENDER DISCRIMINATION IN RURAL ANDHRA PRADESH,INDIA

In this special issue, we use unique household data which was collected exclusively for our study in Andhra Pradesh, India, with the help of an NGO. We estimate and test the intrahousehold resource allocation rules, incidence of child labor, and the effects of credit constraints on time allocation among household members. Three empirical papers of this issue indicate the overall support for the collective model against the unitary model of households, clarified the role of household structure, and show the nature of mother‐child labor substitution under a binding credit constraint. In addition, a survey paper discussing the recent trends on educational attainment and the empirical strategies in identifyng the policy effects are included.     

Do Small Farmers Borrow Less When the Lending Rate Increases? Interest Rate Elasticity of Rice Farmers in the Philippines*

The new generation of credit programs directed at small borrowers emphasizes financial sustainability. Based on anecdotal information, proponents of cost recovery claim that raising formal lending rates would have a minimal impact on borrowing. However, rigorous evidence for this conjecture is sparse. The present study conducts an econometric test of this conjecture using data from a survey of small rice farmers from the Philippines. Alternative regression techniques tend to reject the conjecture; in particular, a regression that controls for selection effects shows a unitary elastic response of formal borrowing to the lending rate.     

Did the European unification induce economic growth? In search of scale effects and persistent changes

Did the European Unification Induce Economic Growth? In Search of Scale Effects and Persistent Changes. — In this paper we investigate whether the European unification has had an impact on the Union’s average labor productivity growth. Based on a time-series approach we do not find a scale effect as suggested by new growth theory. However, the data do not reject the hypothesis that the EU growth experience is well described by a textbook Solow model. Panel data estimations moreover firmly reject the idea of a growth bonus associated with EU membership.     

再议土地权益制度

国有土地所有权、集体土地所有权两元制体系的不合理性,土地所有权与使用权分离的不科学性,土地使用权淹没所有权,所有权主体不明、权益被弱化、经济价值被贬化,集体土地征收过程中不平等、不公正性导致农民失地、失业、失生存,严重损害了集体土地所有权权益。架构主权—发展权—所有权—建设权—租赁权一元土地权益体系,发挥土地权能,保障土地权益。     

ON THE MOTHER AND CHILD LABOR NEXUS UNDER CREDIT CONSTRAINTS: FINDINGS FROM RURAL INDIA

There is an emerging consensus that lack of credit is a major cause of child labor and inequality in the intrahousehold distribution of resources. At the same time, patterns in how children spend their time appear to be strongly influenced by maternal employment decisions. This paper includes an assessment of the effect of credit constraints on maternal employment and that of maternal employment on the intrahousehold allocation of labor, a nexus which has been left unexplored by existing studies. Three findings emerge: (1) a mother is more likely to work outside when a household lacks resources, and her domestic labor can be easily replaced by other members, (2) credit market accessibility is one of the major determinants of maternal labor, and (3) elder daughters assume a large part of the burden of maternal employment by providing domestic labor. Under binding credit constraints, results of this study support the collective as opposed to the unitary model of households.     

The effect of inheritance receipt on individual labor supply: Evidence from Japanese microdata

This paper examines the effects of wealth on individual labor supply by considering inheritance receipts as an exogenous change in household wealth. Using Japanese microdata consisting of individuals aged 26–51, we find that (i) while men’s probability of working does not respond to inheritance receipt, women’s probability of working decreases; and (ii) in the case of most respondents the receipt of an inheritance seems to be unanticipated. We also test the unitary household model using information on respondents’ spouses. The results indicate that who received an inheritance influences the labor supply decision of each household member, meaning that we find no support for the unitary model.     

现阶段我国城市拆迁矛盾的特征、趋势及对策

拆迁矛盾错综复杂,呈现出诸多特征:高发性、形式暴力性、涉及主体多元性、敏感性、利益单一性、连锁性及矛盾化解的两难困境,预测未来仍将居于高发势态,但地区差异性凸显,烈度趋于减弱,矛盾的集体参与度增强,并会衍生出新的矛盾。为此,化解拆迁矛盾需以法治为根本,借助公共部门、社会组织、社会资本等多方资源实现公平、透明、参与、和谐。     

中国股市风格转换投资盈利性测度

为了验证中国股市是否存在小盘股和大盘股择时投资并具预测价值,通过选取2005年3月至2013年7月巨潮小盘指数和巨潮大盘指数月度数据和周数据,采用logit分类选择模型,分别估计了一元和二元分类模型,并比较预测效果。经研究表明:国内风格转换非常频繁,一元模型预测效果优于二元模型,在考虑交易成本的情形下,月度数据经调整转换策略以便降低转换频率,证明存在超额收益;但周数据的风格转换收益锐减,低于小盘股买入即持有策略,甚至在完美预期下,风格转换策略绩效也不如持续持有小盘股。因此,可以认为国内投资存在结构性因素,导致投资者偏爱小盘股。     

Fiscal policy switching in Japan, the US, and the UK

This paper estimates fiscal policy feedback rules in Japan, the United States, and the United Kingdom for more than a century, allowing for stochastic regime changes. Estimating a Markov-switching model by the Bayesian method, we find the following: First, the Japanese data clearly reject the view that the fiscal policy regime is fixed, i.e., that the Japanese government adopted a Ricardian or a non-Ricardian regime throughout the entire period. Instead, our results indicate a stochastic switch of the debt-GDP ratio between stationary and nonstationary processes, and thus a stochastic switch between Ricardian and non-Ricardian regimes. Second, our simulation exercises using the estimated parameters and transition probabilities do not necessarily reject the possibility that the debt-GDP ratio may be nonstationary even in the long run (i.e., globally nonstationary). Third, the Japanese result is in sharp contrast with the results for the US and the UK which indicate that in these countries the government’s fiscal behavior is consistently characterized by Ricardian policy.     

有限理性下的个体决策：一种分析框架

本文试图延续Shesheinski（2003）的分析思路，通过有限理性的模型化使有限理性下的个体决策重新与经济学的福利最大化和边际决策联系起来。在此基础上，我们先后分析了有限理性结构下的纯个体决策和集体行动中的个体决策问题。同时，对集体行动中的有限理性和理性决策进行初步的比较与分析。得出了有限理性下的最优决策规模要大于理性决策规模的结论。     

Endogenous,Intra‐household Decision‐making and its Impact on the Labor Supply of Couples in Rural India*

Using data for rural India, this paper analyzes households' labor supply decision‐making, taking into consideration non‐participation, endogenous intrahousehold bargaining and nutritional status. Analyses of unitary and collective models suggest that bargaining between household members forms the basis of households' decisions, and these decisions alter households' internal power balance. Analysis of households' internal bargaining process suggests that women's bargaining power increases when their wages are higher and they are better educated. The results indicate that it is crucial to account for the mechanics of decision‐making within households when studying the effects of changing labor market conditions or designing development policies to improve individual well‐being or to empower women.     

Unit Root Tests,Persistence, and the Unemployment Rate of the U.S. States

In this paper, we investigate the existence of infrequent shocks and the degree of persistence of U.S. state unemployment over the period 1976-2004. We first apply individual Lagrange multiplier (LM) unit root tests and fail to reject the hysteresis hypothesis in forty states. When two changes in level are incorporated, we again fail to reject the hysteresis hypothesis in forty states. Since individual unit root tests normally lack power, we employ the recently developed panel LM unit root tests with up to two changes in level. Only in this case are we able to reject the joint unit root hypothesis in favor of regime stationarity. Computation of half-lives through impulse-response functions indicates the high degree of persistence of U.S. state unemployment. These results contrast with the common belief among scholars that U.S. state unemployment is closer to the natural rate paradigm than to the hysteresis paradigm.     

Consumption, habit formation, and precautionary saving: evidence from the British Household Panel Survey

In this paper, we generalise Weil's (1993) model, which is basedon hybrid non-expected utility preferences, by allowing forhabit formation. We use this generalised model to derive anEuler equation, where current consumption changes depend onlagged changes and labour income risk. We then estimate thisEuler equation using data from the British Household Panel Survey(BHPS) for the period 1992–97. Our results suggest thatboth labour income risk and past changes in consumption playan important role in determining current changes in consumption.We then compare the model with habits with the one without,and strongly reject the latter.     

农地流转的当下情势与典型模式观照

对我国部分地区农民承包地和集体建设用地流转创新的宅基地换房、换社保政府主导模式、集体建设用地市场化流转农民主导模式、确权赋能土地产权综合改革模式、农用地规模化租赁性经营模式、农民承包地股份合作模式等五种典型模式的研究表明,农村土地流转制度的建设应以土地确权为基础,以市场化机制建设为核心;地方政府应改变运动员角色,让利于民,履行好市场管理与监督职能。     

国内外社会资本与旅游研究文献综述

社会资本包含集体社会资本和个体社会资本。通过对Elsevier，Springer link和CNKI等平台上的文献进行梳理发现：在旅游领域，社会资本理论研究主要集中于集体和个体社会资本对旅游发展影响以及旅游对目的地社会资本影响等方面，研究呈现出内容上集中于社会资本对旅游的影响，方法上以案例分析为主的特点，当前仍存在不足，并提出今后研究的趋势，为以旅游创新助力乡村振兴，关注特色小镇发展模式，促进文化旅游可持续等，更好地运用社会资本理论来解释和解决旅游活动中的现象和问题，促进旅游业可持续发展。     

欧盟区域间集体安全的构建——基于欧盟在非洲危机管理行动经验分析

欧盟区域间集体安全是欧盟在共同安全防务政策的制度和区域间合作框架中形成的对外危机管理概念。欧盟在非洲的危机管理行动经验表明,作为普遍性集体安全与区域性集体安全的"中间体",它既有集体安全的共同逻辑,如主权国家通过组织化的集体行动应对战争或其他大规模暴力的发生,具有大国主导和利益导向等特征;又有普遍性和区域性集体安全的共有特征,如依据《联合国宪章》等通行的国际法来指导其行为;也有区域性集体安全的共同特征,如拥有独立的制度框架和冲突预防的机制化;更有显著的"自我特性",如超国家机构的引入,综合安全方法和安全部门改革的机制化,军事权力、民事权力、规范权力的综合运用以及有效多边主义下的包容性进程等。作者认为,虽然欧盟区域间集体安全亦有明显的局限性,如行动的选择性、军事能力的不足、决策的单向性等,但它构建起了一种新的集体安全实践模式,进一步丰富了集体安全的内涵。     

论集体合同的制度框架及其实施

我国的《劳动法》、《劳动合同法》和《集体合同规定》构建了集体合同的基本制度框架，但集体合同的实施却存在法定程序没有得到严格遵守、内容空洞、续签滞后等问题。为此，需要加强工会的建设，以使工会能够更好地代表劳动者并敢于维护劳动者的利益．同时通过立法强制企业签订集体合同。     

Time-Varying Response of Monetary Policy to Macroeconomic Conditions

We reject the hypothesis that the Federal Reserve's response to the macroeconomy over the period of 1953-1994 can be accurately represented with a fixed-parameter discrete choice model. Thus, we model the Fed's time-varying response with a nonlinear Kalman filter. The estimated time paths of the reaction function coefficients suggest that the Fed has responded countercyclically to movements in the price level except for the middle 1970s when it accommodated inflation. The Fed has generally responded countercyclically to unemployment and output during recessions. However, it has not maintained a countercyclical policy during nonrecessionary times until the 1980s.     

Covid-19, Economic Growth and South African Fiscal Policy

Following years of fast-rising debt levels, we show that the Covid-19 crisis worsened an already deteriorating fiscal position in South Africa. To restore fiscal sustainability in the aftermath of the crisis some commentators argue that higher government expenditure will grow GDP sufficiently to stabilise the debt/GDP ratio. We reject this, showing that although a real increase in expenditure stimulates economic growth (a short-run, once-off effect), the public expenditure/GDP ratio exceeds the level at which an increase in the ratio positively impacts growth. We then explore the past efforts of government to maintain or restore fiscal sustainability by estimating a fiscal reaction function using a Markov-switching model. Following the impact of the Covid-19 crisis on the budget, we subsequently establish the deficit, expenditure and revenue adjustments that the government will have to make to restore fiscal sustainability. Finally, we consider the merits of introducing a debt ceiling.     

An evaluation of Chinese macroeconomic forecasts

This article evaluates the quality of professional macroeconomic forecasts in China for the years 1995–2009. Using a large panel of forecasts on four macroeconomic variables (GDP, inflation, consumption and investment), we reject the hypothesis of unbiasedness, and find that forecasters have been, on average, overly pessimistic. The source of the bias lies primarily in forecasters' slow adjustment to structural shocks to the level of economic growth. We also reject the hypothesis that forecasters use information efficiently, and find that a large number of forecasters overreact to economic news. Finally, we document large differences of forecast accuracy across both forecasters and variables.