Inducing the adoption of emerging technologies for sustainable intensification of food and renewable energy production: insights from applied economics*

Emerging advances in sustainable intensification technologies have the potential to transform land use and crop management approaches in ways that can increase resource productivity and reduce adverse environmental impacts of agricultural production. This paper describes emerging technologies that can sustainably intensify food and renewable energy production. We apply the findings from studies examining the adoption of technologies with similar stylized features to provide insights about the incentives and barriers for the adoption of these emerging technologies. We also present a landscape-based systems approach, based on welfare economics, to go beyond relying on a positive approach to explain observed adoption decisions to examining normative questions about the optimal mix, level, and location of adoption of these technologies to achieve desired societal outcomes. We conclude with a discussion of the insights from applied economics for the design of policy incentives to achieve these outcomes.     

Agriculture’s Inter‐industry Linkages,Aggregation Bias and Rural Policy Reforms

As agricultural policy reform and its effects have become increasingly territorialised, analyses that attempt to explain or predict impacts need to be both more localised and to identify spill‐over effects. Local and regional general equilibrium approaches have become increasingly popular because they can extend predictions of policy shocks obtainable from partial equilibrium sectoral models to identify the wider effects. However, agriculture is usually described as a single sector in input–output accounts, whereas policy shocks that affect constituent commodities with differential impacts will have inter‐industry effects that are different to those implied by average input–output coefficients. Regionalisation of aggregated input–output tables adds further to these difficulties. The objective of this study is to develop a practical method for dealing with these problems. It describes the theoretical basis of aggregation bias and shows how it can be measured, in two contrasting case study regions in the UK and Sweden. Having established that this is a significant issue, a simple but effective procedure is demonstrated, based on additional information on variable costs, which transforms policy shocks from a direct change in agricultural output to that transmitted to the suppliers of inputs. This method provides an impact close to that which could be calculated if the general equilibrium system had indeed been disaggregated, and supports use of this approach in impact studies where insufficient time or funding are available for complete disaggregation of an agricultural sector’s regional accounts.     

Commodity futures markets: a survey

This review article describes the main contributions in the literature on commodity futures markets. It is argued that modern studies have focused primarily on technical questions, with insufficient economic content. More research needs to be directed towards understanding fundamental economic issues such as why so few farmers hedge, the impacts of government farm programs on commodity futures, and the market impacts of commodity pools. The literature has failed to explain the prevalence of inverted markets in grains and oilseeds, and there is unexplainable price volatility in markets such as hogs and orange juice.     

The importance of seasonal variability and tactical responses to risk on estimating the economic benefits of integrated weed management

Seasonal variability is an important source of risk faced by farmers and, regardless of an individual's attitude to risk, there are options to tactically adjust production strategies as the outcomes of risk become known. The objective of this article is to measure the economic benefits of alternative approaches to managing weeds, one of the most serious production problems in Australian cropping systems. A bioeconomic model that combines weed biology, crop growth and economics is developed to value the effects of seasonal variability and the role of tactical responses and sequential decision making in determining an optimal integrated weed management strategy. This shows that there are substantial differences in the measured long‐term benefits from deterministic and stochastic simulations. It is concluded that, for research evaluation of technologies that involve complex biological and dynamic systems, ignoring the impacts of seasonal variability, responses to risk and sequential decision making can lead to an incorrect estimate of the economic benefits of a technology. In this case study of optimal weed management strategies in Australia, the size of the error is high.     

The impact of Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) on land and property values: A meta-analysis

Throughout the world, Bus Rapid Transit (BRT) has become a popular transit solution for cities wanting to improve urban mobility and economic opportunities through land and property value uplift (LVU). However, the relevant literature reports a mixed impact of BRT on land and property values. This research aims to explain the variation in impacts by conducting a meta-analysis of 23 empirical studies which have estimated the amount of LVU that is attributable to BRT. Using a random-effects model, four categories of factors that may influence estimates of BRT impacts are analysed: BRT system characteristics; land type and accessibility; research methods; and the spatial and temporal characteristics of the case study. Several factors were found to have a statistically significant impact on estimated LVU impacts from BRT systems including maturity of the BRT system; property or land; type of value (asking price, assessed price or sales price); the distance to BRT stations; the research method; and the geographical location of the BRT system. Using the quantifiability advantages of meta-analysis techniques, we further conducted a broad comparison between our results and the findings from one previous meta-analysis study on Rail-Based Transit (RBT), and discussed how the LVU impact differs between BRT and RBT. The findings from this research suggest several key recommendations for future studies into the impact of BRT on land and property values. They also inform policy analyses on transit funding through land and property value gains.     

Agro-pastoralism under climate change: Institutions and local climate adaptations in northern China

The livelihoods of resource-dependent peoples are vulnerable to climate variability. This study focuses on how local climate adaptations, which have been sustained through long-term interactions with local ecologies, have changed in the face of the challenges caused by climate change and policy interventions. Case studies were conducted in two agro-pastoral counties of northern China, a region that confronts frequent drought and that has experienced extensive institutional changes over recent decades. Based on the exploration of four adaptation strategies, the field results show that both counties have experienced an acceleration of livelihood diversification, an increase in storage and market exchanges, and a dramatic reduction in previously common pooling. The findings reveal that these adaptations are not a direct result of coping with climate risks but rather are indicative of livelihood strategies that result from the combined impacts of institutional, socioeconomic and climatic changes. Current institutional arrangements have negative impacts on local climate adaptations. This is particularly true for those with limited livelihood options, and such arrangements may therefore foster an increase in inequality with regard to household adaptive capacities over the long term. Therefore, this study recommends flexible policies that facilitate local arrangements rather than the current one-for-all policy.     

Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don't the models agree

Agriculture is unique among economic sectors in the nature of impacts from climate change. The production activity that transforms inputs into agricultural outputs involves direct use of weather inputs (temperature, solar radiation available to the plant, and precipitation). Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have reported substantial differences in outcomes such as prices, production, and trade arising from differences in model inputs and model specification. This article presents climate change results and underlying determinants from a model comparison exercise with 10 of the leading global economic models that include significant representation of agriculture. By harmonizing key drivers that include climate change effects, differences in model outcomes were reduced. The particular choice of climate change drivers for this comparison activity results in large and negative productivity effects. All models respond with higher prices. Producer behavior differs by model with some emphasizing area response and others yield response. Demand response is least important. The differences reflect both differences in model specification and perspectives on the future. The results from this study highlight the need to more fully compare the deep model parameters, to generate a call for a combination of econometric and validation studies to narrow the degree of uncertainty and variability in these parameters and to move to Monte Carlo type simulations to better map the contours of economic uncertainty.     

Impacts of agricultural price support policy on price variability and welfare: Evidence from China's soybean market

China is a predominant soybean importer; thus, its domestic soybean policies have a large impact on world soybean market dynamics. We develop the first aggregate structural econometric model of China's soybean market and link it to the rest of the world (ROW), which allows us to analyze the impacts of China's soybean price support policy that ran from 2008 to 2013. We investigate the impacts of China's policy on the variability of their domestic and world soybean prices, and adopt a Monte Carlo simulation to evaluate the effects on distributional and aggregate welfare. Our results indicate: (a) after China's soybean price support policy, price transmission elasticity decreases, China's domestic price variability decreases, and world price variability increases; (b) China's producer surplus increases, consumer surplus decreases and the net welfare change in their domestic market is negative; and (c) although soybean exporting countries in the ROW experience significant welfare gains, the world net welfare change is negative.     

Calculating environmental cost indicators of apple farm practices indicates large differences between growers

This study evaluates the environmental impact of current apple cultivation practices in Flanders, Belgium. It evaluates integrated production, the most common practice, and it compares this production method with conventional and organic production. The assessment was based on Farm Accountancy Data Network data from 2010 to 2012 for 64 farms in the region and a life cycle approach was used. The findings showed no significant improvement in environmental impacts for integrated farms compared to conventional farms and, even more, the former showed significantly higher average impacts per hectare for the categories ‘acidification’, and ‘non-renewable energy use’ in comparison with the latter. The organic production group showed higher average impacts per kilogram due to lower yields. Secondly, impacts related to the categories ‘acidification’, ‘eutrophication’ and ‘global warming potential’ were monetized based on the shadow price method in order to obtain external costs. Results show that external costs increase the production costs for integrated farming at least with 5%, both when these costs are expressed per kilogram and per hectare. However, the findings show a large variability in impacts and costs per farm. Farm-specific practices have therefore an important influence on the total environmental cost rather than production group-specific practices.     

Does fertilizer use respond to rainfall variability? Panel data evidence from Ethiopia

In this article, we use farmers' actual experiences with changes in rainfall levels and their responses to these changes to assess whether patterns of fertilizer use are responsive to changes in rainfall patterns. Using panel data from the Central Highlands of Ethiopia matched with corresponding village‐level rainfall data, the results show that the intensity of current year's fertilizer use is positively associated with higher rainfall levels experienced in the previous year. Rainfall variability, on the other hand, impacts fertilizer use decisions negatively, implying that variability raises the risks and uncertainty associated with fertilizer use. Abundant rainfall in the previous year could depict relaxed liquidity constraints and increased affordability of fertilizer, which makes rainfall availability critical in severely credit‐constrained environments. In light of similar existing literature, the major contribution of the study is that it uses panel data to explicitly examine farmers' responses to actual weather changes and variability.     

Conservation Payments under Risk: A Stochastic Dominance Approach

Conservation payments can be used to preserve forest and agroforest systems. To explain landowners' land-use decisions and determine appropriate conservation payments, it is necessary to focus on revenue risk. Marginal conditional stochastic dominance rules are used to derive conditions for determining the conservation payments required to guarantee that the environmentally preferred land use dominates. An empirical application to shaded coffee protection in the biologically important Chocó region of West Ecuador shows that conservation payments required for preserving shaded coffee areas are much higher than those calculated under risk-neutral assumptions. Further, the extant distribution of land has strong impacts on the required payments.     

The Land Use Impacts of the EU Biodiesel Policy: Assessing the Direct,Indirect and Induced Effects

This paper deals with the controversial measure of indirect land use changes of the European biodiesel policy. Two studies sponsored by the European Commission find significant, but contrasted, land use impacts for the different vegetable oils used for biodiesel production. The first study uses an aggregate computable general equilibrium model capturing direct, indirect and induced effects. The second more recent study uses a biotechnical partial equilibrium model providing a detailed representation of the indirect effects occurring through the livestock sectors. We develop an original economic emulator to understand the diverging key results of these studies and test their sensitivity. We find that the direct and indirect effects on vegetable oil and land markets explain most of the differences. We also find that indirect effects on the feed markets and the induced effects have less influence on the biodiesel results. We finally argue that the development of emulators as done here can help to understand complex policy assessments.     

The economics of drought: A review of impacts and costs

Although a growing body of literature studies drought impacts, papers providing a comprehensive review of drought's social and economic impacts are scarce. This paper fills this gap by exploring the consequences of drought on societies based on research findings in Australia—a large country used to experiencing severe droughts. To do this, we propose a framework to categorise drought impacts in three dimensions: individuals/households (including health), productive sectors and system (including economic and ecosystem) impacts. The framework then guides a systematic literature review and discussion of studies looking at diverse drought impacts and their related costs. By analysing and discussing the findings from this literature, we emphasise different policy considerations, empirical challenges and research needs to support robust analysis and estimates of the true cost of droughts. We conclude by proposing an expanded framework to identify drought impacts and a discussion of the implications of the review for policy development.     

Environmental evaluation of agri-environment schemes using participatory approaches: Experiences of testing the Agri-Environmental Footprint Index

The Agri-Environment Footprint Index (AFI) has been developed as a generic methodology to assess changes in the overall environmental impacts from agriculture at the farm level and to assist in the evaluation of European agri-environmental schemes (AES). The methodology is based on multi-criteria analysis (MCA) and involves stakeholder participation to provide a locally customised evaluation based on weighted environmental indicators. The methodology was subjected to a feasibility assessment in a series of case studies across the EU. The AFI approach was able to measure significant differences in environmental status between farms that participated in an AES and non-participants. Wider environmental concerns, beyond the scheme objectives, were also considered in some case studies and the benefits for identification of unintentional (and often beneficial) impacts of AESs are presented. The participatory approach to AES evaluation proved efficient in different environments and administrative contexts. The approach proved to be appropriate for environmental evaluation of complex agri-environment systems and can complement any evaluation conducted under the Common Monitoring and Evaluation Framework. The applicability of the AFI in routine monitoring of AES impacts and in providing feedback to improve policy design is discussed.     

家庭生命周期对农村劳动力转移的影响分析

本文以2007年福建省农村家庭及其劳动力外出务工情况的调查资料为基础,论述了家庭生命周期对农村劳动力转移的影响。研究发现,家庭生命周期对农村家庭劳动力外出务工有显著的影响,年轻夫妇家庭劳动力外出务工的概率较高,成长中的核心随着家庭户主的年龄逐步增大,家庭劳动力外出务工的几率在减少。对于成熟的核心家庭,子女已经成为劳动力,子女外出务工的几率增大,因而整个家庭劳动力外出务工的概率又增大,而扩大家庭正好处于两者之间。     

Seasonal variability,land values and willingness–to–pay for a forward wheat contract with protein premiums and discounts

This article investigates the impact of a protein premiums and discounts system on the income stream from growing wheat. Based on a biological relationship between protein and yield in uncertain seasonal conditions, it shows that such a system reduces the expected level and variability of wheat income. It is subsequently argued, using a numerical analysis, that protein payments affect both the attraction to wheat growers of forward contracts and the value of land used for wheat. The nature of both of these impacts is related to the level of seasonal variability affecting the land. Consequently, wheat growers in the more unreliable regions of the wheatbelt may have been particularly disadvantaged by the system.     

Spatial Dynamics of Water and Nitrogen Management in Irrigated Agriculture

Dynamic optimization of crop production with nonuniform irrigation and nitrogen carryover and leaching is considered. A production function system with thresholds, plateau maximum, and yield reduction is estimated from experimental data; rapid convergence to a steady-state is observed. Spatial variability implies a 40% increase in applied water and a six-fold increase in nitrate emissions, while dynamic optimization has more modest impacts. Nitrate emission control is accomplished primarily through reduced applied water, illustrating a strong cross-policy effect. Significant levels of water conservation and nitrate pollution control are achieved at relatively low cost with traditional irrigation systems and baseline conditions.     

Risks and returns from soil conservation: evidence from low-income farms in the Philippines

This paper examines risks and returns associated with soil conservation on hillside farms in the Philippines. Stochastic efficiency analysis is combined with a heteroskedastic regression model to assess the impacts of contour hedgerows on low-income corn farms. Regression analysis indicates that, over time, contour hedgerows can improve yields up to 15% compared with conventional practices. The analysis also provides weak support tor a hypothesis that hedgerows are variance reducing. However, results show that the reduction in yield variability afforded by hedgerows is modest, and that yield variability may increase by as much as 5% as hedgerow intensity rises. Tests for stochastic dominance show that, compared with the conventional tillage system, hedgerows do not constitute an unambiguously dominant production strategy. Stochastic elticiency with respect to a function is used to identify a range lor the coefficient ol relative risk aversion within which hedgerows dominate conventional tillage. Results suggest this range would be rather high; hedgerows dominate the conventional cropping strategy only lor decision-makers with relative risk aversion coefficients in the range 3-5.5. Implications for soil conservation adoption in low-income settings are discussed.     

Unplanned rural living and its policy implications: Some findings from Bundaberg,Australia

Research conducted in the Bundaberg Region in north-eastern Australia sought to explain the pattern of unplanned rural living and to assess whether its impacts are adverse enough to warrant land use policy change. It found there was limited conversion of suitable sugarcane land to ‘unplanned’ rural living during the 1980–2000 period. Parcels converted to unplanned rural living during this period were, on average, much smaller, had lower agricultural production potential, and were situated in more undulating and forested landscapes further from Bundaberg than parcels that remained in sugarcane production.     

Heterogeneous impacts of information technology adoption on pesticide and fertiliser expenditures: Evidence from wheat farmers in China*

This study examines the impacts of mobile information technology adoption on agrochemical expenditures, using data collected from 551 wheat farmers in China. Unlike previous studies that analyse a homogeneous relationship between the adoption of information technologies and farm input use, in this study, an instrumental variable quantile regression approach is utilised to capture the heterogeneous impacts of smartphone use on pesticide and fertiliser expenditures. Findings reveal that smartphone use affects pesticide and fertiliser expenditures heterogeneously, and its impacts on pesticide expenditure are larger than those on fertiliser expenditure. Specifically, at the lowest 20th quantile, smartphone use significantly increases pesticide expenditure by 33 per cent and fertiliser expenditure by 18 per cent. However, at the higher 60th and 80th quantiles, smartphone use significantly decreases pesticide expenditure by 36–39 per cent and fertiliser expenditure by 14–19 per cent. Our findings suggest that guiding farmers’ agrochemical usage behaviours through smartphone-based information intervention can be a practical strategy to help reduce the excessive usage of chemical pesticides and fertilisers and preserve the environment and human health.