The potential benefits of herbicide-resistant transgenic rice in Uruguay: Lessons for small developing countries

In many developing countries, the potential benefits from adopting a transgenic variety developed by a multinational corporation are limited by the crop’s small production base. This paper presents an ex-ante evaluation of the economic impact of herbicide resistant transgenic rice in a small developing country, Uruguay. To fully account for the multinational’s market power, the firm’s seed markup is assumed to affect the adoption rate for the variety. Stochastic simulation techniques are employed to understand how potential benefits may vary with changes in technology, yield, costs, and adoption parameters. The results indicate a $1.82 million mean net present value for producers from the development and utilization of transgenic rice in Uruguay and $0.55 million for the multinational. These relatively small multinational firm benefits suggest that a firm will not undertake significant efforts to develop transgenic varieties adapted to local conditions without either strategic partnerships with local institutions or access to wider regional markets.     

Verteilungsaspekte einer Harmonisierung der europäischen Klimaschutzmaßnahmen

The ongoing harmonisation of the European energy sector has led to gains from growth and increasing efficiencies by creating a common European internal market. However, there are new tendencies running against harmonisation in recent years, currently for example in the area of climate protection and the associated expansion of renewable energies. In addition to the role of national targets for climate protection in combination with a European emissions trading system, carrying out the related measures leads to distributional effects, both between countries and between stakeholders (e. g., producers and consumers) in these countries. We first analyse the impact of a non-harmonised national promotion schemes for renewable energies on electricity and CO₂ prices in different countries. Then we illustrate the impact of harmonisation measures on producers and consumers in the participating countries. The analysis shows that these measures are indeed economically beneficial, but that—depending on the actual configuration—they can also lead to disadvantages for individual actors. Analysing and discussing these effects leads to a better assessment of the impact of certain measures and enables a better classification of individual market participants’ responses and opinions.     

Agriculture reform and food crisis in Syria: Impacts on poverty and inequality

The paper pursues a twofold objective. From a methodological viewpoint it shows how to carry out an impacts evaluation of exogenous shocks on poverty and inequality in a context characterised by out-of-equilibrium, poorly-adjusting markets, as it is the case in many developing countries, using a social accounting matrix framework. From an empirical viewpoint it provides an assessment of how the cereal price spikes of 2007–2008 and the global recession of 2008–2009 have impacted the welfare of Syrian households and how did they compound with the on-going agricultural sector liberalisation implemented by the Government of Syria since mid 1990s. This will contribute to shed some lights on the economic background behind the spreading of unrest across the country over the last couple of years or so.The results show that liberalisation impacts are very different and largely affected by the adopted budget closure rules. While reforms aiming at reducing agricultural market distortions (such as production subsidies and price support for strategic crops) could generally have a positive effect on growth, poverty and inequality, the elimination of food security interventions (such as food stamp schemes) determines an adverse distributional impact against rural household and an increase of poverty. The recent macroeconomic shocks (food price crisis and the global recession) determined a generalised poverty increase and showed an income distribution bias against rural households.Three fundamental policy implications can be drawn by this study. First, the liberalisation of agricultural sector shows a significant growth potential and is likely to determine positive effects on poverty through a generalised increase of incomes as well as public budget savings that could be used for pursuing other policy goals. Second, in the short-run there is a structural trade-off between equity improvements and poverty alleviation: the policy options that will more likely reduce absolute poverty show undesirable distributive biases (both on overall inequality and on rural households vis-à-vis urban households). Third, the reform should include a careful design of the use of budget savings, mainly to address equity goals that are likely to be generated, in the short-run, by liberalisation.     

Evolving beef export market access requirements for age and source verification

We analyze the economic impacts of changes in age and source verification requirements and associated adjustments in international trade of US beef using an equilibrium displacement model. Because the United States lags behind many countries in adopting animal traceability systems, the United States risks losing export market access. The loss of an export market the size of South Korea’s would cause a decline of US meat industry producer surplus of $1751 million over 10 years or 0.23% of its10-year cumulative discounted present value. Additionally, we find that only small increases in US beef exports would be necessary to offset direct costs associated with adoption of age and source verification.     

Economic and welfare impacts of commercializing a herbicide-tolerant,biotech wheat

A transgenic variety of spring wheat was proposed for deregulation in North America in 2002. (More recently, the developer shelved this plan.) In this paper, a quantitative model is used to analyze the possible economic impact of commercializing a crop for which there may be sizable consumer resistance. At issue is whether, and under what conditions, the economic benefits from biotech wheat could be outweighed by economic costs. The analysis also addresses the distribution of costs and benefits among stakeholders: producers, consumers, and US taxpayers. Specific attention is given to the impacts on consumers in non-biotech and biotech market segments, and those in the United States and foreign countries. Under base-case assumptions, the analysis suggests that commercialization of biotech wheat could lead to a small net loss of total economic welfare. Results depend critically on several model parameters: the rate of biotech adoption; unit cost savings for biotech producers; the share of the non-biotech market segment; and extra costs associated with a ‘dual marketing system’ for wheat.     

Change and diversity in smallholder rice–fish systems: Recent evidence and policy lessons from Bangladesh

Efforts to unlock the genetic potential of both rice and fish, when combined with improvements in the management of rice–fish systems, can potentially increase agricultural productivity and food security in some of the poorest and most populous countries in Asia. In Bangladesh, estimates suggest that the country’s potential rice–fish production system encompasses 2–3 million hectares of land. But despite three decades of research on biophysical and technical aspects of rice–fish systems, this potential has not been fully realized due to insufficient attention given to the social, economic, and policy dimensions of rice–fish system improvement. This paper provides a characterization of the diverse and changing nature of rice–fish systems in Bangladesh to shed new light on the economic viability of different rice–fish systems and recommend policy and investment options to accelerate the development of appropriate rice–fish technologies. Data are drawn from a novel subdistrict-level survey of fishery officers, a household/enterprise survey, focus group discussions, and a meta-review of the literature on aquaculture in the country, all of which were conducted in 2010–2011. Findings indicate that concurrent rice–fish systems, alternating rice–fish systems, and collectively managed systems offer considerable potential for increasing productivity and farm incomes in Bangladesh. Findings also suggest that while innovation in these rice–fish systems is being driven by households and communities, there is need for more supportive government policies and investments to enable further innovation. Policymakers need to develop effective regulations to promote feed and fish quality and quantity, for example. More rigorous analysis of the intended and unintended impacts of these policies and investments is also necessary.     

奥巴马“中东新政”影响分析

在中东北非动荡局势愈演愈烈、奥巴马总统支持率不断下降和美国量化宽松政策作用不如预期的背景下,奥巴马推出了美国对中东的新政策。＂中东新政＂的核心内容有：支持中东北非民主运动与政治改革;区别对待动荡国家;加大对重建民主国家的经济援助,支持中东地区的民主化运动;承认1967年巴以边界线。美国调整中东策略,旨在通过民主化运动实现疏美政权的和平演变;美国继续对中东北非地区推行双重标准,可实现美国在该地区利益的最大化。推出＂中东新政＂是美国国内政治和经济形势发展的需要,它可能引发新一轮示威活动,导致动荡局势向其他国家和地区蔓延,进而引发世界对石油供应的担忧和油价的上升。同时,＂中东新政＂可抑制日、欧和新兴经济体的经济发展,有利于美国继续加强和巩固其金融主导地位。当前,中国石油企业的海外油气合作正进入政治风险高发期,为此,企业应加强风险预警研究,构建战略层面的风险预警机制;把握合作机会和主动权。     

The impact of agricultural policy distortions on the productivity gap: Evidence from rice production

This article explores how production and trade policy distortions affected rice productivity in 33 rice-producing countries. A rice-productivity index is constructed, and a model linking the productivity gap with policy distortions is presented. After controlling for the differences in infrastructure, access to inputs and equipment, openness, and human capital, this article shows that high levels of rice subsidies and protection in rich countries combined with taxation of rice farming in poor countries widened the gap in rice productivity between rich and poor rice countries.     

The distributional effect of the rice policy in Japan, 1986–2010

This study aims to evaluate the distributional effect of the governmental rice policy in Japan on producers, consumers, and government expenditures from 1986 to 2010 using a partial equilibrium model. Policy measures include government purchase of rice, output payment, and acreage control. The simulation result shows that acreage control has been the principal policy measure for transferring income to producers, especially since the enforcement of the WTO Agreement on Agriculture. Acreage control is the policy measure with the lowest total efficiency and highest budgetary efficiency. This result implies that the government’s goal of transferring income to producers with minimum government cost has been achieved through a combination of policy measures.     

What can we learn from past price stabilization policies and market reform in Mexico?

This paper reviews experience with policy reforms in the maize sector in Mexico, beginning in the 1980s with particular reference to impacts on price variability. It analyses Mexico’s transition from past price stabilization policies under a state-trading enterprise to market reforms implemented during the 1990s. The nature, extent, and costs to producers and consumers of maize policies is discussed for both the pre-reform and the reform periods. Although wide ranging reforms have been introduced, impacts on efficiency and fiscal outlays have been less than expected.     

Income diversification,poverty traps and policy shocks in Côte d’Ivoire and Kenya

This paper presents evidence on the effects of two different sorts of policy shocks on observed income diversification patterns in rural Africa. In Côte d’Ivoire, households with poor endowments were less able to respond to attractive emerging on-farm and non-farm opportunities. Due to entry barriers to superior livelihood strategies, the benefits of exchange rate reform accrued disproportionately to households that were richer prior to devaluation. By contrast, food-for-work transfers to households in Kenya significantly reduced liquidity constraints, enabling project participants to pursue more lucrative livelihood strategies in non-farm activities and higher-return agricultural production patterns. Jointly, these two shocks underscore the importance of liquidity, market access and skill constraints to skilled non-farm income sources to dynamic poverty traps in rural Africa.     

What happens to diet and child health when migration splits households? Evidence from a migration lottery program

The impact of migration on food security and child health is likely to differ depending on whether children themselves migrate or whether they remain behind while other household members migrate. However, existing studies have not been able to examine how impacts differ in these two scenarios because parallel data are required for both the sending and receiving country. Moreover, self-selection into migration makes unbiased estimation of either impact difficult. We overcome these problems by using a unique survey of Tongan households that applied to migrate to New Zealand through a migrant quota which selects households through a random ballot. This survey covers both migrant children in New Zealand and non-migrant children in Tonga, with the migration policy rules providing a source of exogenous variation for identifying impacts. Our estimates of short-run impacts show that diets diverge upon migration: children who migrate experience improvements, while diets worsen for children who remain. There is also suggestive evidence of a divergence in health outcomes, with increases in weight-for-age and height-for-age found for migrant children, and decreases found for children who remain behind while other household members migrate.     

Changing asset endowments and smallholder participation in higher value markets: Evidence from certified coffee producers in Nicaragua

This paper examines the capacities of smallholders in Nicaragua to exploit new linkages to certified coffee markets following the coffee crisis. Data on livelihood assets were collected from 292 households, which were clustered to test how differences in outcomes (asset building) reflect variations in initial asset endowments. The results suggest that most households built particular elements of their asset base and increased their resilience to future shocks. However, households struggled to make effective use of the gains for intensifying their livelihoods. Of the least-endowed households, few made investments in the scale or productivity of coffee, and most continued to depend heavily on subsistence production and seasonal off-farm income for survival. In conclusion, improved market access alone, even under relatively favorable market conditions and with considerable external support, will have uncertain impacts on rural poverty if the underlying constraints on household assets and investments are not addressed concurrently.     

Good intentions,poor outcomes: Telecommunications reform in South Africa

As the first decade of democratic rule draws to a close in South Africa, this paper reviews the telecommunications reform process in terms of the performance of the sector against the twin national policy objectives of affordable access to communications services and accelerated development to meet the needs of a modern economy. It critiques the implementation of international reform models which have in practice tended to emphasise privatisation at the expense of other reform mechanisms—including competition and, in particular, regulatory measures. It argues that this has impacted negatively on affordable access and has inhibited market innovation.This paper identifies the root of the problem as the market structure. Designed around the vertically integrated incumbent operator, it induces inherently anti-competitive impertives that demands a resource-intensive regulatory response. The regulator has often not had the statutory powers, and seldom the capacity, to circumscribe the behaviour of the incumbent so that it does not impact negatively on new entrants. Without effective regulation, the assumed benefits of liberalisation—including more affordable access through improved management of the incumbent and more efficient allocation of resources in the market through competition—do not materialise.The paper argues that developing country telecommunications markets demand more from a regulator than simply meeting the threshold requirements of transparency and predictability via so-called international “best practice” models. Such a limited approach will not be sufficient to meet the challenges facing most developing countries. The highly imperfect nature of developing country markets, and the enormous income disparities and inequities that exist, require strategic regulation. This is necessary to enable innovative service provision, especially to under-serviced areas, and to facilitate fair competitive markets that promote the viability of the new entrants needed to build the information infrastructure—the infrastructure necessary for a country's participation in the global network economy.Simply removing all market-entry restrictions, however, is likely to place an even more onerous burden on already-struggling regulators and is unlikely to contribute to universal access and other developmental goals. A new policy approach involving the fundamental restructuring of the market is needed to remove the anti-competitive incentives that exist in the vertically integrated market structure that generally accompanies privatisation in developing countries. While a more horizontally structured market will not remove the incumbent advantage entirely, it is likely to reduce the need for constant adjustment of anti-competitive behaviour on the part of the incumbent, freeing up regulatory resources for more strategic regulation towards achieving national developmental objectives.     

Selection of standards for digital television: The battle for Latin America

This paper analyses the implementation of Terrestrial Digital Technology (TDT) standards in Latin America. The analysis suggests that while some governments have chosen the standard attending to their industrial objectives, others have been influenced by the relevance of network externalities and scale economies and by the political and commercial relationship with their neighbours. The discussion about the technical characteristics of the systems was only relevant in the first years of the process, when the leading countries of the region had still not made their selection. Brazil decided to create its own version of the Japanese ISDB standard in 2006, and in the following years it has persuaded a significant part of the continent to choose it. Another block of countries has adopted the US ATSC standard. The most prominent case is that of Mexico, which has a preferential access to the US market. Only three countries have chosen the European DVB standard, the most widely used standard in the world. Colombia has tried to lead its introduction in the continent, but the results so far have been meagre.     

Smallholder income and land distribution in Africa: implications for poverty reduction strategies

This paper provides a micro-level foundation for discussions of land allocation and its relation to income poverty within the smallholder sectors of Eastern and Southern Africa. Results are drawn from nationally-representative household surveys between 1990 and 2000 in five countries: Ethiopia, Kenya, Rwanda, Mozambique, and Zambia. The paper shows that farm sizes are declining over time; that roughly a quarter of the agricultural households in each country are virtually landless, controlling less than 0.10 hectares per capita, including rented land; that non-farm income shares are below 40% even for the households in the bottom land quartile; and that because of this, there is a strong relationship between access to land and household income, particularly for farm sizes below 1.0 hectares per capita. Land distribution within these small-farm sectors appears to be becoming more concentrated over time, and their Gini coefficients are comparable to those of many Asian countries at the time of their green revolutions. Lastly, the largest part of the variation in per capita farm sizes within the small-farm sectors is, in every country, predominantly within-village rather than between-village. Realistic discussions of poverty alleviation strategies in Africa need to be grounded in the context of these land distribution patterns and trends.     

Explaining smallholder maize marketing in southern and eastern Africa: The roles of market access,technology and household resource endowments

Research on household food grain sales behavior in developing countries has tended to focus on the roles of market access and prices to explain why many rural households do not sell staple crops, though recent literature suggests that low household asset endowments may also be key constraints. We use econometric analysis of panel data from smallholders in Kenya, Mozambique, and Zambia to inform the design of public investments that will enable smallholders to increase their maize sales. Results show that investments that raise farm-level productivity and land access are an essential complement to investments that improve market access.     

Potential impacts of increasing average yields and reducing maize yield variability in Africa

This study evaluates the potential impacts of investing in Drought Tolerant Maize (DTM) in 13 countries of East, South and West Africa. The analysis utilizes geo-referenced production data at the regional and household levels and employs a model that estimates both the conventional mean yield gains and the additional benefits from yield stability gains of DTM varieties as well as impacts on poverty. The results indicate that by 2016, adoption of DTM can generate between US$ 362 million and US$ 590 million in cumulative benefits to both producers and consumers. Yield variance reductions stand to generate considerable benefits, especially in high drought risk areas. These benefits translate into poverty reductions in the range of 0.01–4.29% by 2016. Significant benefits are also found among different types of households living in drought risk areas of Kenya, Ethiopia and Nigeria.     

Growing in the changing global landscape: the intangible resources and performance of high-tech corporates

The Belt and Road Initiative and Sino-US trade war stand for the trend of globalization and de-globalization. The changing environment motivates innovative high-tech corporates to reassess their intangible resources such as R&D investment and top managers team (TMT) political ties, in order to attain competitive advantages. The study based on a sample of 223 listed Chinese most innovative high-tech corporates (2014–2018) confirms R&D intensity as burden and political ties as support for corporates’ short-term performance. TMT political ties may attenuate the negative effect of R&D intensity on performance. The negative influences of R&D are aggravated when high environmental dynamism in both the US and B&R countries markets. However, the positive influences of political ties are moderated differently by environmental dynamism in the two markets. For the US market, export environmental dynamism implies de-globalization and diminishes the positive effect of the political relations on performance. By contrast, for the B&R market, it suggests globalization and strengthens the positive effect of political ties.

     

发展中国家的电力市场化改革综述——市场模式、约束条件及路径选择

发展中国家由于社会和经济发展水平低,在电力市场化改革中遇到了很多教训。电力市场的目标模式是零售竞争型、但发展中国家受制度、资本市场、人力资源、技术的约束,难以直接实现目标模式。渐进式改革路径更适用于发展中国家的电力市场化改革。