Central bank design with heterogeneous agents

We study alternative institutional arrangements for the determination of monetary policy in a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents, where monetary policy has redistributive effects. Inflation is determined by a policy board using either simple-majority voting, supermajority voting, or bargaining. We compare the equilibrium inflation rates to the first-best allocation.     

How strong is the case for a populist central banker? A note

Conventional wisdom holds that a conservative central banker reduces equilibrium inflation with no cost in terms of real activity. More recently, this proposition has been turned around in models with inflation averse wage setters who are Stackelberg leaders vis-à-vis the central bank: In this case a populist central banker with no interest in inflation was shown to lead to the first-best equilibrium. This note demonstrates that the Stackelberg assumption is crucial for this result and that the Nash solution of the same model does not generally support the case for a populist central banker.     

Pigouvian Taxes in General Equilibrium with a Fixed Tax Redistribution Rule

This paper establishes existence of a first-best emission tax in a general equilibrium model with pollution, when the redistribution rule of the tax income is chosen fixed and independently of the Pigouvian tax rate. It is known that under standard convexity assumptions each Pareto efficient allocation can be implemented by simultaneously choosing a Pigouvian tax rate and an appropriate lump sum redistribution of income. In real politics, however, tax redistribution schemes are often restricted to a small feasible set. Nonetheless we show that for any given lump sum redistribution rule, being continuous in overall tax income, an emission tax rate exists that leads to a Pareto efficient equilibrium.     

Finite Horizons,Political Economy,and Growth

This paper analyzes the political economy of growth when agents and the government have finite horizons and equilibrium growth is inefficient. A “representative” government (i.e., one whose preferences reflect those of its constituents) endowed merely with the ability to tax and transfer can improve somewhat on the market allocation, but cannot achieve first-best growth. Efficiency requires in addition the ability to bind future governments. We argue that this ability is related to political stability, and we provide empirical evidence that stability and growth-related policies (namely education) are meaningfully related. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: D9, H3, O5.     

The Welfare and Resouce Allocation Implications of the U.S.Dairy Quotas

This paper examine the welfare and resource allocation implications of the U.S. dairy quotas. A computable general equilibrium model detailing five dairy sectors and nine aggregate sectors is calibrated to a 1989 benchmark of the U.S economy. The model is used to simulate the removal of the U.S.dairy quotas both the with and without a first-best subsidy to maintain a dairy farm output objective. Welfare, production, trade, and employment results are provided. The welfare cost of the U.S dairy quotas ranges from $0.7 to $1.0 billion. The first-best subsidy ranges from $2.0 to $2.3 billion or approximately $1.4 million per full-time equivalent job maintained in the dairy farm sector [F13, Q17]     

Optimal search,learning and implementation

We characterize the incentive compatible, constrained efficient policy (“second-best”) in a dynamic matching environment, where impatient, privately informed agents arrive over time, and where the designer gradually learns about the distribution of agents? values. We also derive conditions on the learning process ensuring that the complete-information, dynamically efficient allocation of resources (“first-best”) is incentive compatible. Our analysis reveals and exploits close, formal relations between the problem of ensuring implementable allocation rules in our dynamic allocation problems with incomplete information and learning, and between the classical problem, posed by Rothschild (1974) [20], of finding optimal stopping policies for search that are characterized by a reservation price property.     

Optimal taxation with joint production of agriculture and rural amenities

We show that, when there is joint production of an agricultural good and rural amenities, the first-best allocation of resources can be implemented with a tax on the agricultural good and some subsidies on the production factors (land and labor). The use of a subsidy on the agricultural good can only be explained by the desire of the policymaker to redistribute income from the consumers to the farmers.     

A dynamic model of settlement

We investigate the role of settlement in a dynamic model of a payment system where the ability of participants to perform certain welfare-improving transactions is subject to random and unobservable shocks. In the absence of settlement, the full information first-best allocation cannot be supported due to incentive constraints. In contrast, this allocation can be supported if settlement is introduced, provided that it takes place with a sufficiently high frequency.     

Power fluctuations and political economy

We study (constrained) Pareto efficient allocations in a dynamic production economy where the group that holds political power decides the allocation of resources. For high discount factors, the economy converges to a first-best allocation where labor supply decisions are not distorted. For low discount factors, distortions do not disappear and fluctuate over time. Most importantly, the set of sustainable first-best allocations is larger when there is less persistence in the identity of the party in power (because this encourages political compromise). This result contradicts the common presumption that there will be fewer distortions when there is a “stable ruling group”.     

On the design of optimal grandfathering schemes for emission allowances

This paper derives optimal schemes for the free allocation of emission allowances in a dynamic context. We consider emissions- and output-based allocation rules which allow for updating of the basis of allocation over time and thereby do not rely on historical data only. We show that such dynamic schemes do not necessarily induce inefficient outcomes. In closed trading systems with an absolute cap on emissions, grandfathering schemes which allocate allowances proportionally to past emissions are first-best. However, in open trading systems where allowances can be traded with outsiders, first-best allocation schemes must not depend on firm-specific decisions while second-best schemes correspond to a Ramsey rule of optimal tax differentiation and are generally based on both past emission and output levels.     

Partial-Equilibrium Welfare Analysis

The use of partial equilibrium models is common, and, typically, efficiency is characterized by maximizing consumer plus producer surplus (or, sometimes, gross consumer surplus). The analysis appeals—implicitly or explicitly—to the concept of efficiency derived from general equilibrium models. Using the tax-reform methodology, it is shown in a simple general equilibrium model that, if the second-best outcome is not the first-best one, the sum of consumer plus producer surplus cannot lead an economy to its true second-best optimum.     

How Does Imperfect Competition in the Labor Market Affect Unemployment Policies?

We consider a continuum of workers ranked according to their abilities to acquire education and two firms with different technologies that imperfectly compete in wages to attract these workers. The education cost to be borne by workers is higher in the high-technology firm. In equilibrium, we show that the unemployed workers are those with the lowest initial abilities. We then study different policies that subsidize either education cost or wages. We found that the first-best allocation can only be implemented by selective policies. We analyze second-best nonselective policies and show that, in terms of welfare, subsidizing education costs or wages is strictly equivalent.     

Congestion management in power systems

In liberalized power systems, generation and transmission services are unbundled, but remain tightly interlinked. Congestion management in the transmission network is of crucial importance for the efficiency of these inter-linkages. Different regulatory designs have been suggested, analyzed and followed, such as uniform zonal pricing with redispatch or nodal pricing. However, the literature has either focused on the short-term efficiency of congestion management or specific issues of timing investments. In contrast, this paper presents a generalized and flexible economic modeling framework based on a decomposed inter-temporal equilibrium model including generation, transmission, as well as their inter-linkages. The model covers short-run operation and long-run investments and hence, allows to analyze short and long-term efficiency of different congestion management designs that vary with respect to the definition of market areas, the regulation and organization of TSOs, the way of managing congestion besides grid expansion, and the type of cross-border capacity allocation. We are able to identify and isolate implicit frictions and sources of inefficiencies in the different regulatory designs, and to provide a comparative analysis including a benchmark against a first-best welfare-optimal result. To demonstrate the applicability of our framework, we calibrate and numerically solve our model for a detailed representation of the Central Western European (CWE) region, consisting of 70 nodes and 174 power lines. Analyzing six different congestion management designs until 2030, we show that compared to the first-best benchmark, i.e., nodal pricing, inefficiencies of up to 4.6% arise. Inefficiencies are mainly driven by the approach of determining cross-border capacities as well as the coordination of transmission system operators’ activities.     

Dynamic Incentive Contracts in Multiple Penalty Systems with No-commitment to Tenure-track Auditing

This paper generalizes Khalil's (1997) static model to a multiperiod one in the tenure-track auditing. Three penalty systems considered are full-transfer-dependent, partial-transfer-dependent, and transfer-independent ones. It is found that the equilibrium under the tenure-track auditing is also an equilibrium under the periodic auditing. The conditions under which the principal prefers the periodic auditing, or is indifferent between the two auditing schemes are derived. Incentive contracts may vary in different penalty systems. For instance, the equilibrium with principal’s sure ex post auditing exists only under the partial-transfer-dependent and transfer-independent penalty systems. And the equilibrium with the first-best contract as the first-period optimum appears merely under the transfer-independent penalty system.     

General equilibrium in economies with uncertain delivery

We consider a general equilibrium model of trade ex ante with differential information in which agents choose plans of state-contingent lists of bundles. Being unable to verify that the state of nature is s and not t, an agent has to accept the delivery of any bundle in the list for delivery in state s or in the list for delivery in state t. Under the assumption that each state of nature can be verified by at least one agent, we establish existence of equilibrium and we show that the equilibrium allocation satisfies a notion of coalitional incentive compatibility.     

Emission Trading with Fiscal Externalities: The Case for a Common Carbon Tax for the Non-ETS Emissions in the EU

A government is fiscally constrained if it is unable to raise sufficient tax revenue to finance the first-best level of public spending. When involved in emission trading, a fiscally constrained government will potentially seek to close its fiscal gap through emission permit sales. This fiscal incentive therefore generates a fiscal externality in the permit market that is endogenous to the extent of fiscal constrainedness among the participating countries. Our theory explains how, and when, fiscal externalities may be expected to arise. Moreover, we show that in a permit market equilibrium with fiscal externalities, the initial allocation of emission permits between countries will affect: (1) the price of emission permits, (2) the global distribution of abatement effort, and (3) total greenhouse gas mitigation costs. This is contrary to the textbook model of emission permit markets. Our findings are especially relevant for the EU which is about to allow for trading in emission rights between EU member countries for all emissions outside the European Emissions Trading System.     

Relevance or irrelevance of capital structure?

In this paper we examine the effects of asymmetric information on the nature of financial equilibrium and on the capital structure of firms. In the first model presented, the financial contracts on offer involve pooling equilibrium with no adverse selection. However, in the special case analyzed, where contracts are of mixed form, there may be a separating equilibrium and also equilibrium may not exist. Interesting result is that the separating equilibrium found is not economically efficient since aggregate investments falls short of first-best level. More importantly, capital structure does matter. The relative magnitude of outside equity makes a real difference to the quantity of aggregate investment in equilibrium.     

Efficient risk sharing,non-marketable labor income and fixed-wage contracts

This paper seeks to explain fixed-wage labor contracts. The traditional rationale that fixed wages represent an implicit sale of ‘wage insurance’ by risk-neutral firms to risk-averse workers is rejected as being incompatible with the fact that firms are owned by risk-averse investors. Instead, it is shown that fixed-wage contracts might arise from the non-marketability of labor income. When human capital is not marketable, it becomes optimal to shift all the risk in production onto the firm, since trading in equity markets enables efficient allocation of the uncertainty. The fixed-wage contract shifts the risk to equity owners and in fact replicates the first-best equilibrium that would emerge if individuals were paid their realized marginal product and allowed to trade shares in human capital.     

On the optimality of optimal income taxation

The Mirrleesian model of income taxation restricts attention to simple allocation mechanism with no strategic interdependence, i.e., the optimal labor supply of any one individual does not depend on the labor supply of others. It has been argued by Piketty (2009) [12] that this restriction is substantial because more sophisticated mechanisms can reach first-best allocations that are out of reach with simple mechanisms. In this paper, we assess the validity of Piketty?s critique in an independent private values model. As a main result, we show that the optimal sophisticated mechanism is a simple mechanism, or, equivalently, a Mirrleesian income tax system.     

Essential interest-bearing money

I examine optimal monetary policy in a Lagos and Wright [R. Lagos, R. Wright, A unified framework for monetary theory and policy analysis, J. Polit. Economy 113 (2005) 463-484] model where trade is centralized and all exchange is voluntary. I identify a class of incentive-feasible policies that improve welfare beyond what is achievable with zero intervention. Any policy in this class necessarily entails a non-negative inflation rate and a strictly positive nominal interest rate. Despite the absence of a lump-sum tax instrument, there exists an incentive-feasible policy that implements the first-best allocation.