Ex-ante evaluation of a targeted job program: Hypothetical integration in a social accounting matrix of South Africa

To analyze policy impacts of a targeted employment program calls for a new approach of estimation. This study proposes a simple modification to a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) in order to analyze the multiplier effects of a new sector. A different input composition, or technology, of the sector with targeted job provision makes a conventional analysis of final-demand injections on existing sectors invalid. Instead of a costly full-scale rebalancing, we apply the modification—so-called hypothetical integration—into a SAM to assess a proposed expansion of social care sector within the Expanded Public Works Program in South Africa.     

Environmental Effects of Production and Consumption Activities Within an Economy: the Aragon Case

The goal of this research paper is to analyze the households’ environmental impact in a regional economy such as Aragon, focusing on water consumption, and water and atmosphere pollution. Our objective is to include not only the direct impact but also the indirect one that is generated by the production of goods and services in global and per capita. The framework of analysis is a SAMEA (Social Accounting Matrix and Environmental Accounts) built for Aragon in 1999. This SAMEA is composed by SAM (Social Accounting Matrix) and also the Water Accounts, the Water Pollution Accounts and the Atmosphere Emissions Accounts. For this reason, the SAMEA describes the relationship between the institutional activities and the environment. In order to obtain environmental impact of household activity in Aragon and to measure the individual responsibility, we are going to calculate indicators from the SAMEA model considering only households as exogenous account. The environmental effects are estimated for two water resources categories, for six water pollution categories and for six atmosphere emissions categories.     

Growth and equity effects of changing demographic structures in the Netherlands: simulations within a social accounting matrix

"This paper deals with the economic consequences of a changing demography in an industrialized country, namely the Netherlands. The analytical framework chosen is that of general equilibrium as statistically given by the social accounting matrix (SAM) in which we introduce households by size for the present economic demographic situation (1981) and for a future simulated situation (2010) featuring in particular a relative increase in one-person households (individualization). The income (output) multipliers of both SAMs show a positive growth bias towards three and more person households and towards mining, public utilities, trade and banking."     

Re-examining the financial development and economic growth nexus in Kenya

This paper re-examines the causal relationship between financial development and economic growth in Kenya for the period 1966–2005 within a quadvariate vector autoregressive (VAR) framework by including exports and imports as additional variables to the finance–economic growth nexus. We use four conventionally accepted proxies for financial development, namely money supply (M2), liquid liabilities (M3), domestic bank credit to the private sector and total domestic credit provided by the banking sector (all percent of GDP). Applying a modified version of the Granger causality test due to Toda and Yamamoto [Toda, H.Y. and Yamamoto, T., Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated process. Journal of Econometrics 1995; 66; 225–250], our empirical results suggest that in three out of the four measures of financial development we found evidence of a two-way Granger causality: (1) between domestic credit provided by the banking sector and economic growth; (2) between total domestic credit provided by the banking sector and economic growth, and (3) between liquid liabilities and economic growth. This implies that neither the supply-leading nor the demand-following hypotheses are supported in Kenya and that economic growth and financial development are jointly determined, or they complement each other. A major implication of our finding is that financial development promotes economic growth in Kenya and that policies at enhancing the development of the financial sector can help to spur economic growth.     

Structural transformation in China and India: A note on macroeconomic policies

This paper explores macroeconomic policies that can sustain structural change in China and India. A two-sector open-economy model with endogenous productivity growth, demand driven output and income distribution as an important determinant of economic activity is calibrated to a 2000 SAM for China and a 1999/2000 SAM for India. Short-run analysis concerns temporary equilibria for output, productivity and employment growth rates in the formal sector. In the long-run, the model allows for multiple equilibria which can describe cases of (a) underdevelopment and structural heterogeneity or (b) sustained growth and development. Several simulation exercises are conducted. Specifically, we consider how changes in investment, wages, labor productivity trend and a depreciation of currency affect the macroeconomy and job creation in the formal sector.     

Housing Market and Current Account Imbalances in the International Economy

This paper presents a two‐sector, two‐country model showing that inflation in the housing market, a low personal savings rate, and a construction investment boom can contribute to a large current account deficit. In the model, demand by a group of households in the domestic country is constrained by the availability of collateral. This implies more procyclical debt capacity because constrained households can borrow against the increase in the value of their houses during an expansion. A higher degree of financial liberalization and development helps constrained households reach higher loan‐to‐value ratios, thus relaxing their borrowing constraints. The resulting higher net worth and lower need for savings imply a worsening current account.     

Linear SAM models for inequality changes analysis: an application to the Extremadurian economy

Social accounting matrices are adequate databases for the economic modelling. These matrices emphasize the role of households in the economy, and so, they usually disaggregate the household sector into several groups. This disaggregation allows social accounting matrices to be used for diverse income distribution analysis. The objective of this work is to use the linear SAM models to study how inequality is modified by several exogenous injections of income. The set of multipliers and indicators presented is applied to the economy of Extremadura – a region situated in the southwest of Spain. In particular, together with the accounting multipliers, two redistributed income matrices are presented to show how changes in final demand and in income transfers cause opposite effects in inequality. For contrasting these results, Gini and Theil indices are also used. Finally, a major reduction in both would result from an appropriate re-allocation of transfers.     

ENRAP与SEEA体系中环境服务核算的比较分析

ENRAP和SEEA都设法扩展传统国民经济核算的范围,以更好地反映经济和自然环境的交互影响.ENRAP明确把自然环境作为一个生产性经济部门,采用大量虚拟技术测算环境服务的价值;SEEA采用SNA的生产部门定义与核算准则,但忽略了对许多有价值的自然环境服务的核算.这两大核算体系在环境服务核算的内容、核算方法和核算的结果等方面存在差异.     

Environmental and Social Accounting for Brazil

An environmentally extendedSocial Accounting Matrix (SAM) has beenconstructed for Brazil for the first time. Wereview in detail previous studies in thisfield, describe the construction, structure anddata sources of the Brazilian SAM, anddemonstrate the effect of system closure.Examining a range of type-I and type-IImultipliers, we show that incomes generated byfinal consumption are highly skewed towardsrich households, but energy requirements andcarbon emissions are higher for the consumptionof the poor. A significant negative correlationexists between employment and income on onehand, and energy requirements and carbonemissions on the other, while a significantpositive correlation exists between imports,and energy and carbon. These correlationsdemonstrate that there is scope for policiesthat pursue imports substitution and reduceenergy consumption and carbon emissions whilstincreasing employment and income.     

Modelling energy and labour linkages: A CGE approach with an application to Iran

We develop a unique dynamic CGE model suitable for analysing the policy interrelationships between fuels, crude oil and the labour market. Special emphasis is placed on the modelling of energies, crude oil, and the factors of production in the economy. To fully outline the model's features, we build simulations that hypothesize removing fuel and crude oil subsidies in an oil exporting economy to assess their effects on the labour market. The model allows for extensive treatment of transition dynamics, featuring gradual as well as immediate removal of the subsidies. We focus on constructing two alternative simulations applied to a purpose built Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) of the Iranian economy, with the revenue from subsidy elimination redistributed to households as extra income or into increased investment. The study pays particular attention to SAM data construction of energy goods and factors of production. In the specific case of Iran, the model shows that rebating the revenue from subsidy removals to households affects the labour market adversely, while channelling revenue into investment improves labour fortunes in the long run. The model is sufficiently detailed and encompassing to allow for further applications to other countries and energy–labour policy issues.     

Product Quality,Informality, and Child Labor

This paper studies how the interactions between the structure of product demand and relative wages affect the incidence of child labor. One sector (the agrarian) produces a homogeneous good, and the other (the modern) produces a vertically differentiated product. The modern sector is segmented according to quality: high‐quality varieties are produced by formal firms which employ only adult labor, whereas low‐quality varieties are produced by informal firms which employ child labor as well. Differences in tastes and incomes across households generate demand for both high‐quality and low‐quality varieties. Stricter enforcement of child‐labor regulations and increases in minimum wages can have beneficial effects regarding the incidence of child labor and the size of the formal sector. However, since these policies have undesirable welfare effects among segments of wage‐earning households, they may not garner the necessary political support.     

General Equilibrium Impacts of Monetary and Fiscal Policies on Welfare of Households in South Asia

Impacts of fiscal and monetary policies are assessed in an open economy two sector multi‐household general equilibrium tax model with money for South Asia. Despite impressive growth rates there is evidence for alarming gaps in the distribution of income among households that require very careful design of economic policies. Generally the impacts of fiscal expansions are positive for all categories of households under the flexible price system but the gains are much higher for households in the upper income group than for those in the bottom. In theory the equilibrium relative prices guarantee the optimal allocation of resources in such economy. Simulation results show that demand, output and employment are sensitive to the preferences of consumers, confidence of producers and sector specific production technologies. Monetary policy is super‐neutral under flexible price regime but can complement fiscal policy well when aggregate prices are made sticky. Combination of monetary and fiscal policies in this manner can have extensive impacts in efficiency and redistribution. Higher taxes distort incentives to work and investment from richer households slowing down the economy. This reduces the welfare level of both rich and poor. Flexibility in prices enhances the market mechanism and makes the fiscal policy more effective and efficient.     

Dynamic asset allocation and consumption under inflation inequality: The impacts of inflation experiences and expectations

Differences in spending patterns and in price increases across goods and services lead to the unequal inflation experiences of households (called inflation inequality). These differences then cause disagreements in inflation expectations and eventually have a significant effect on households’ asset allocation and consumption decisions. The asset allocation model in this paper explains how inflation experiences affect household investment and consumption through corresponding inflation expectations, which are characterized by long-term expected inflation, the impact coefficient of the expected inflation and the correlation between expected inflation and the risky return. Using China's economic data, the empirical results show that significant differences in inflation expectation arise from income gap, regional inequality, different inflation measures and economic sector spending differences. Using the estimated coefficients, the calibration results have policy implications that households need more financing channels to resist inflation, especially in rural areas and in the raw material sector.     

Housing Allowance and the Rent of Low‐income Households

This paper analyses the effect of a housing allowance programme on the rent paid by assisted low‐income households. The data consist of 12,000 rental households in the free‐market and municipal sectors. The effect is estimated using the programme reform of 2002 as an instrument. The reform increased the allowance of the assisted households depending on housing characteristics, but it had little effect on the eligibility. Results suggest that in the private sector, one additional euro of allowance increases the rent of claimants by 60–70 cents. The effect is zero in the municipal sector, as rents are tied to the housing costs.     

FINANCIAL MARKET COMPETITION AND ECONOMIC GROWTH: THE IMPORTANCE OF HOW PROFITS ARE RETURNED

If households have finite lives, the effect of imperfect competition in the financial sector on economic growth depends also on how its profits are returned. The return may be exogenous though fiscal transfers to the young and/or the old or endogenous through dividend payments to a subset of old households that have acquired financial sector equity. Returning financial profits to the old, either exogenously or endogenously, unambiguously reduces growth, but through the two respective mechanisms of consumption-smoothing and of encouraging 'unproductive saving'. As the latter is the more powerful, a public pension paid for by taxing financial profits will raise steady-state growth rate. However, the main results are that if profits are returned to the young, growth will be highest with monopolistic finance, if the elasticity of intertemporal substitution is sufficiently low; and, generally, the number of Nash–Cournot financial firms that maximizes growth is increasing in the value of this parameter.     

An Input–Output Analysis of the Nonprofit Sector in the USA and Germany

This paper presents an exploratory input–output analysis of the nonprofit sectors in former West Germany and the USA based on the conceptual and data structure provided by the System of National Accounts. When compared with the USA, the West German nonprofit sector catered more to government demands. A higher proportion of West German nonprofit services went to government and a smaller proportion went to households. In terms of the multiplier effect of nonprofit output, we find that an additional dollar of nonprofit services delivered to households and/or government induced indirectly an additional 83 cents of business output in the USA. By comparison, West Germany's nonprofit sector had a lower multiplier effect, with 43 Pfennig per DM1. We also find that businesses have a much larger stake in nonprofit production as intermediate suppliers when compared to their role as intermediate consumers. The economic position the nonprofit sector occupies in both countries is that of a producing sector, taking inputs from businesses and providing outputs for households and governments. This general structural characteristic suggests that the nonprofit sector is particularly sensitive to changes in government policies as well as to shifts in private household incomes, yet relatively insensitive to demand changes in other industries.     

Multi‐asset Deprivation and Pro‐poor Growth in Cameroon

This article analyzes pro‐poor growth of multiple dimensions of household well‐being by sector of activity in Cameroon. It uses (1) a polychoric principal component analysis to construct indicators of household asset endowments, (2) the growth incidence curve to analyze the pro‐poorness of the different assets, and (3) a Shapley value framework decomposition to account for changes in deprivation in terms of within‐sector growth and changes in within‐sector inequality. Data is sourced from the second and third Cameroon household consumption surveys. Results show that: (a) pro‐poor growth is not observed for all assets and households at the bottom of the distribution of the different assets experienced an increase in inequality; (b) for all asset endowments, overall deprivation worsened between 2001 and 2007; (c) whereas the growth component mitigated the worsening incidence, depth and severity of human asset deprivation, both growth and redistribution components accounted for the worsening physical, financial and social asset deprivations; (d) while the tertiary sectors of activity benefited some human asset poverty reduction, all sectors suffered from worsening financial and social asset deprivation. These results have implications for promoting growth and improving the allocation of household assets.