Taxation and top incomes in Canada

We estimate the elasticity of reported income with respect to tax rates for high earners using sub‐national variation across Canadian provinces. We argue this allows for better identification of tax elasticities than the existing literature. We find that elasticities of reported income at the provincial level are large for incomes in the top 1%, but small for lower earners. There are strong indications that the response happens both through earned and capital income. While our estimated elasticities are large, changes in tax rates cannot explain much of the overall long‐run trend of higher income concentration in Canada.     

Lottery pricing and price elasticity dispersion in the UK and Canada

We estimate effective price elasticities for different quantiles of the demand distribution of the UK National Lottery and the Canadian Lotto 649. We show that price elasticities vary significantly from draw to draw and have a tendency to increase with lottery participation and jackpot size. Our findings indicate that setting lottery rules on the basis of mean effective price elasticities should be faced with caution because expected profits are negatively related to the evident variation of elasticities among lottery draws. We also simulate alternative active rollover distributions and show that limiting the rollover accumulation by withholding portions and ploughing them back in future nonrollover draws is potentially profitable.     

Comparing the employment-output elasticities of migrants and nationals: the case of the Gulf Cooperation Council

Many countries have large or increasing migrant populations. We estimate the elasticity of private-sector employment to nonoil GDP for nationals and migrants using a Seemingly Unrelated Error Correction (SUREC) model. We use data from the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, which have a particularly large share of foreign workers. Our results indicate that the employment response is statistically significantly lower for nationals, who have an estimated short-run elasticity of only 0.15 and a long-run response of 0.7, than for migrants, where the short- and long-run elasticities are 0.35 and almost unity. Lower elasticities could signal higher labour market adjustment costs. In the context of low oil prices, forecasts imply a significant jobs shortfall for nationals in the coming years.     

New estimates of labour supply elasticities for married women in Canada 1996–2005

In this article, we estimate income and substitution labour supply and participation elasticities for Canadian married women using data from the Survey of Labour and Income Dynamics 1996–2005. We use the Canadian Tax and Credit Simulator (CTaCS) and detailed information on the structure of income at the household level to compute the marginal tax rates faced by each individual. We then use these marginal tax rates to compute net own-wage, spouse-wage, and nonlabour income. We show how the magnitude of the estimated elasticities varies depending on whether net or gross wages and income are used in the estimation procedure, and quantify biases caused by using average tax rates instead of marginal tax rates. Finally, because marginal tax rates vary significantly over the sample, we use quantile regressions to compare elasticities at different points of the hours distribution. Overall, our results show that public policies now have, on average, less scope for influencing hours of work than 10 years ago. However, the quantile results show that wives working fewer hours per week are more sensitive to changes in their own or spouses’ wages.     

THE EFFECT OF WELFARE ASSET RULES ON AUTO OWNERSHIP,EMPLOYMENT, AND WELFARE PARTICIPATION: A LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS

This paper investigates how asset tests for welfare eligibility affect auto ownership, employment, and welfare participation for single mothers without a college degree. We combine longitudinal data from the 1996 Survey of Income and Program Participation with data on state‐level welfare program rules from the Urban Institute and data on state‐level controls to test whether these single mothers were more likely to (1) own a car, (2) be employed, and (3) be off of welfare, depending on the welfare asset rules instituted in their state. We find evidence that, taken as a group, the asset rules have a statistically significant effect on the probability of car ownership. Ordinary least squares results and cross‐sectional two‐stage least squares (2SLS) results using the asset rules to instrument for car ownership show a large, positive, statistically significant effect of car ownership on employment. However, in 2SLS models controlling for prior car ownership and prior employment, the asset instruments are weaker and we do not find an effect of car ownership on employment. Of significance for policy makers, we find that the asset rules do not have a statistically significant joint effect on welfare participation, even after addressing possible endogeneity. (JEL I38, J68, J08)     

FACTORS AFFECTING THE LABOR SUPPLY DECISIONS OF REGISTERED NURSES

We estimate the labor force participation and the full‐time and part‐time work decisions of female registered nurses (RNs) and find higher wages are not a significant factor to (a) increase the likelihood of working nor (b) to encourage full‐time work. Another key factor is age which, given the aging of the RN population, foreshadows dwindling labor supply. This, while demand for RNs is predicted to continue to rise, will exacerbate labor shortages in the market for RNs. The results also offer insight to explain the reduction in labor supply wage elasticities for female workers in general in the United States. (JEL I11, J22, J44)     

Does work pay in France? Monetary incentives, hours constraints, and the guaranteed minimum income

This paper uses a representative sample of individuals on France's main welfare program (the Revenu Minimum d'Insertion, or RMI) to estimate monetary incentives for employment among welfare recipients. Based on the estimated joint distribution of wages and hours potentially offered to each individual, we compute potential gains from working in a very detailed manner. Relating these gains to observed employment, we then estimate a simple structural labor supply model. We find that potential gains are almost always positive but very small on average, especially for single mothers, because of the high implicit marginal tax rates embedded in the system. Employment rates are sensitive to incentives with extensive margin elasticities for both men and women usually below one. Conditional on these elasticities, simulations indicate that existing policies devoted to reducing marginal tax rates at the bottom of the income distribution, such as the intéressement earnings top-up program, have little impact in this population due to their very limited scope. The negative income tax (Prime pour l'emploi), seems to be an exception.     

Export demand elasticities and productivity as determinants of growth: estimates for Mauritius

In this article, we combine the export led and import led growth hypotheses in a growth model in which the importation of foreign capital goods and the demand elasticities of own export products explain the growth opportunities and the technical progress of developing countries. This model, based on imported capital goods, uses Mauritius’ data on capital investment, employment, export partners’ growth and terms of trade to estimate price and income elasticities of export demand, total factor productivity growth and economies of scale. These elasticities are then used to assess how the growth in export partners’ income is converted into domestic growth. The implications of the presence of low or high export demand elasticities are discussed by relating them to various strands of trade and growth literature. Based on the results of this estimation, we also calculate steady state growth rates, engine and handmaiden effects of growth as well as the dynamic steady state gains from trade for this latecomer export economy. The implications of steady state results are also discussed in the light of the Mauritian employment and growth perspectives.     

Sectoral regularities of productivity growth in developing countries--a Kaldorian interpretation

This paper provides a Kaldorian interpretation for empiricalregularities of productivity growth at the sectoral level ofthe economy. The statistical evidence is based on a datasetdrawn from internationally compatible time series for employmentand value added in 30 developing countries. Based on novel non-linearstatistical techniques the findings show: (i) a regular patternof positive sectoral employment elasticities with respect tooutput growth; (ii) robust differences across sectors in themagnitude of the employment elasticities; and (iii) employmentelasticities for all sectors that are significantly less thanunity, suggesting strong evidence for increasing returns atthe sector level of the economy.     

A forward-looking analysis of residential telephone access demand in Korea

This paper analyzes the price elasticity for residential access demand in Korea using survey data of 1998. We apply an asymmetric GEV model to this data and derive a formula for forward-looking price elasticities of the penetration rate. We categorize the respondents into two groups, single-line households and multi-line households, and estimate the price elasticities for each group. Estimation outcome shows that single-line households are less sensitive to price changes than multi-line households with respect to installation charge and rental charge. In view of the relatively low price elasticities of single-line households, an increase in rental charge is not expected to result in large-scale drop-offs of primary lines.     

The Impact of Unionization Structures with Heterogeneous Firms and Rent‐Sharing Motives

How are unemployment and output affected if wages are set on the sector level rather than firm level? We take a new look at this question, allowing for heterogeneous firms and rent‐sharing motives. Without these motives, employment and output are lower under sector‐level wage‐setting due to higher wage markups. With rent‐sharing motives, however, firm selection is higher under sector‐level wage‐setting, which tends to increase employment and output, thus counteracting the markup effect. Simulations show that the firm‐selection effect decreases the difference between the two unionization structures substantially but it does not change the signs of the effects on output and employment.     

FINANCIAL LIBERALISATION, CONSUMPTION AND WEALTH EFFECTS IN SEVEN OECD COUNTRIES

We estimate the impact of financial liberalisation on consumption in seven major industrial countries, and find a marked shift in behaviour, notably a decline in short‐run income elasticities and a rise in short‐run wealth and interest rate elasticities. A corollary is that consumption equations estimated over both pre‐ and post‐liberalisation regimes may be misleading, and either a form of testing as presented here or a shortening of the sample period may be appropriate for accurate forecasting and simulation.     

DOUBLING U.S. EXPORTS UNDER THE PRESIDENT'S NATIONAL EXPORT INITIATIVE: IMPLICATIONS OF SUCCESSFUL IMPLEMENTATION

President Obama's National Export Initiative (NEI) is targeted at doubling U.S. exports between 2010 and 2015. We apply USAGE to quantify what the NEI would need to do to foreign import‐demand curves and domestic export‐supply curves to achieve this target. USAGE is a dynamic economy‐wide model of the U.S. incorporating recession‐relevant factor market specifications including excess capacity and wage/labor‐demand elasticities that vary with the level of employment. In our central simulation, export‐promotion policies compatible with the President's target reduce the cost of the current recession from about 70 million 1‐year jobs for the period 2008–2020 to 45 million jobs. (JEL E17, C68, E62, E65, F16)     

Does labour supply respond to a flat tax?

We exploit the exogenous change in marginal tax rates created by the Russian flat tax reform of 2001 to identify the effect of taxes on the labour supply of men and women. We apply a weighted difference‐in‐difference regression approach and instrumental variables to estimate labour supply functions using a panel dataset. The mean regression results indicate that the tax reform led to a statistically significant increase in hours of work for men but had no effect on work hours for women. However, we find a positive response to tax changes in both tails of the female work hour distribution. We also find that the reform increased the probability of finding a job among both men and women. Despite significant variation in individual responses, the aggregate labour supply elasticities are trivial. This suggests that reform‐induced changes in labour supply are an unlikely explanation for the amplified personal income tax revenues that followed the reform.     

Family ties and employment behavior: The role of financial intermediaries

We study the interaction effect of financial intermediaries and family ties on labor participation and employment type in China. Although existing studies examine these effects separately, we investigate the effects of both factors in one model. We give empirical evidence to support earlier arguments that family ties negatively affect labor force participation and positively affect self‐/family‐employment behavior and that financial development positively affects labor force participation. Departing from the extant literature, our results overall indicate a compensating effect of financial intermediaries for family ties in labor participation and employment type. We further argue that there are gender, urban/rural, and age differences in the role of financial intermediaries. The effect of financial intermediaries on the strength of family ties is more relevant for female, rural, and younger people compared to male, urban, and older people.     

Modelling variety in consumption expenditure on food in India

In this paper we compute nutrient‐income elasticities for two macronutrients (calories and protein) and five micronutrients (calcium, thiamine, riboflavin, carotene and iron) using an all‐India sample of rural households for 1994. We show that in each case the respective elasticities are positive and significant. This lends support to our hypothesis that an increase in income would increase nutrient intake by varying amounts, contrary to some assertions. We then compute differences in the elasticity of substitution for non‐poor and poor across commodity groups and show that these differences, while significant, are small. This further corroborates our conclusion that increases in income of the poor would lead to greater increases in their nutrient intake as compared to the non‐poor, although the magnitudes will be small.     

The changing structure of cost and demand for the U.S. telecommunications industry

This paper formulates a multiproduct structural model to examine the evolution of the structures of production and demand and their dynamic interaction, over an extended period, 1935–1987, in the U.S. telecommunications industry. We estimate the degree of scale economies, cost elasticities, input price elasticities and the determinants of demand for outputs and for various factors of production. The contributions of the quasi-fixed inputs, such as R&D and physical capital, in the evolution of this industry are evaluated. A number of important issues like the changing characteristics of demand for and cost of local and toll services and the variation of price–cost margin over time are examined under different economic conditions, market structures and regulatory environments. We also analyze the effects of the 1984 divestiture of the Bell System on the cost structure, employment and capital formation of the U.S. telecommunications industry.     

Income and price elasticities of electricity demand in Australia: Evidence of state‐specific heterogeneity

This paper estimates country‐wide and state‐level income and price elasticities of electricity demand in Australia for the period 1999Q1–2013Q2 using the National Electricity Market data and the autoregressive‐distributed lag model. The results suggest that the long‐run income and price elasticities are inelastic and are statistically significant with theoretically consistent signs. The country‐wide income and price elasticities are estimated to be 0.41 and ?0.38, respectively. It is also found that there exists state‐specific heterogeneity in both speed and magnitude of the electricity consumption adjustment in response to changes in income and electricity price. These results have important policy implications, including the need to use state‐specific elasticities in the scenario analysis of the energy pricing policy.     

ECONOMIC FREEDOM AND LABOR MARKET CONDITIONS: EVIDENCE FROM THE STATES

Using 1981–2009 data for the 50 states, this article examines the relationship between economic freedom and the unemployment rate, the labor force participation rate, and the employment‐population ratio. After controlling for a variety of state‐level characteristics, the results from most specifications indicate that economic freedom is associated with lower unemployment and with higher labor force participation and employment‐population ratios. (JEL J68, K31, O43)     

THE IMPACT OF INSURANCE SUBSIDIES ON SELF‐EMPLOYMENT: DO STATE NON‐GROUP HEALTH INSURANCE REGULATIONS MATTER?

This paper tests whether the effect of tax‐based subsidies for self‐employed health insurance on the level of self‐employment differs with the type of non‐group insurance regulatory regime at the state level. Using a panel of tax returns from 1999 to 2004, we estimate fixed effects instrumental variable regressions for the probability of being self‐employed, allowing the effect of the after‐tax price of self‐employed health insurance to differ by regulatory regime. Our results suggest that states with community rating and guaranteed issue regulations had significantly smaller increases in the fraction of taxpayers reporting some amount of self‐employment income as a result of a decrease in the after‐tax price of self‐employed health insurance. However, there is suggestive evidence that heavily regulated states experienced a larger increase in exclusive self‐employment, particularly among older taxpayers. (JEL J24, H24, I18)