资本市场风险管理的法律问题

<正> 中国的入世承诺对外资主体进入的影响在人世承诺中,中国正在逐步允许外资银行、合资证券公司和外资保险公司进入我国金融中介服务业。有人据此认为,中国开放了资本项目(实现资本项目可兑换)。我国政府承诺允许合资证券公司在中国境内依据其业务范围提供中介服务,这是一个具体范围的承诺,与证券、银行市场开放是两个不同的概念。中国证监会新闻发言人就中国加入世贸组织后证券业今后的发展问题特别指出:证券业开放与证券市场开放是两个不同的概念。前者是指允许外国服务提供者参与国内证券业务,属于WTO服务贸易     

国际银行业重组昭示了什么

一、银行并购的动因近些年来,国际银行业劲吹并购之风,“内忧外患”使一些大银行为了生存和发展,或者将兼并的利刃挥向同行业其他银行,或主动与其他实力相当的银行合并,其具体原因如下。(一)外力拉动1.金融自由化浪潮和混业经营之势是银行并购的基本外因。随着经济一体化和金融全球化程度的提高,顾客对多样化和综合性服务的需要不断增加。20世纪70年代末和80年代初,以发达国家为代表的金融自由化全面展开,政府放松了对金融领域特别是银行业的管制,打破了银行业、证券业和保险业之间的界限,制定了新的推动金融自由化的法律。1986年英国伦敦金…     

券商国际化的挑战

<正> 1994年墨西哥金融危机以及1997年的亚洲金融危机更使人们清醒地看到外国资本对本国证券市场冲击的风险。我国加入世贸组织,中国完全开放证券市场是必然趋势。但中国证券市场是在相对封闭环境中发展起来的,实力不足,资本市场开放必将给我国的金融安全和民族证券业带来前所未有的巨大挑战。中国券商:国际化程度低,没有直面国际竞争的实力中国证券业的对外开放尚处于起步     

中国资本账户开放对国家经济安全的风险与影响

随着国际经济金融一体化的发展 ,在金融自由化和国际化的进程中 ,在保持本国经济金融发展独立性的同时 ,逐渐对外开放本国的经济和金融 ,放宽对资本账户的管制 ,让资本能在一个较为宽松的国际环境中自由流动 ,拓展本国利用外资发展经济的新渠道 ,成为国际经济金融发展的新趋势 ,也成为发展中国家必须面临的一个现实问题和理论问题。我国在发展市场经济的过程中 ,对资本账户的开放只是一个时间问题。文章着重分析资本账户的开放可能会对我国的国家经济安全造成的风险与正负面影响 ,以便于防范和化解开放资本项目所面临的经济安全风险。     

论全球两大金融开放模式及对中国的启示

一、金融开放的含义和范畴 金融开放是指一国取消对资本国际流动的限制，开放本国金融市场。实现金融资源配置国际化，以最大限度地提高金融资源对本国经济发展的支持力度。这是金融自由化的最后阶段，一旦本国最终完全取消了对资本流动的限制，就标志着一国金融业实现了自由化。     

金融危机后美国的金融自由化策略选择

金融自由化是一把双刃剑,在一定条件下可以充分发挥市场的调节力量,但发展过度或路径选择错误就会引发金融混乱,甚至导致金融危机的发生。最近几十年,在美国的主导下很多发展中国家掀起了金融自由化的浪潮,同时也将全球经济与美国利益捆绑在了一起。美国在推行金融自由化过程中迎来了长达近20年的繁荣,却最终因金融自由化失控而使本国经济陷入危机。     

浅析金融危机对发展中国家金融开放的启示

金融危机爆发以来,发达国家经济增长低靡,美国化的金融自由化思潮遭到质疑,专家和学者在分析金融危机的原因中,普遍将原因归结为金融业过快膨胀、金融监管不力以及金融衍生工具的花样翻新等,本文分析了金融危机对发展中国家金融行业的影响,以及我国目前金融开放的现状,从中得到了对于我国金融开放的一些启示。     

金融创新下银行的风险问题探讨

在全球经济一体化的进程中,金融创新层出不穷,特别是金融危机后国际、国内经济动荡,市场变得愈加复杂,风险无处不在,我国银行面临的环境越来复杂,如何在复杂的环境下进行金融创新,并能较好的规避风险成为社会各金融界关注的问题,本文就此首先论述了我国现阶段的金融创新现状,然后在此基础上探讨了银行在金融创新中进行风险控制的可行性建议。     

马来西亚证券业改革新动向

为适应经济全球化的发展及本国资本市场进一步开放的趋势 ,马来西亚对本国证券业进行了大刀阔斧的改革并已取得实质性进展。本文论述了马来西亚在这一过程中所采取的措施。     

阿根廷金融危机对我国金融监管的启示

<正> 拉美经济三巨头之一的阿根廷金融局势一直动荡不已,股市持续低迷,外资纷纷抽逃,政府面临严重的财政和债务困境,政治危机此起彼伏。阿根廷这次金融动荡与1994年墨西哥金融危机、1997年亚洲金融危机和1999年巴西金融危机的情况不同。在前几次危机中,国际金融炒家兴风作浪,大量游资外流引发金融市场强烈恐慌,“多米诺骨牌式”的连锁反应使一些国家原本脆弱的金融体系几乎在顷刻之间土崩瓦解,而阿根廷经济从4年前开始出现衰退。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

John Stuart Mill's Theory Of Justice

John Stuart Mill has traditionally been portrayed as self-contradictory and failing to construct a unified social theory. Recent scholarship, however, has challenged this view, finding Mill's work to be creatively synthetic in bridging the antinomies inherent in liberal democratic thought. This revisionist interpretation of Mill is advanced by an understanding of his theory of justice and its role in shaping his policy positions on issues such as welfare, education, voting rights, property rights, taxation, government intervention, and the future of capitalism.     

A Rich Vein for “Reality Mining”北大核心CSSCISSCI

Arik Hesseldahl In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, U.S. officials quickly turned their attention to other potential targets, including California's Golden Gate Bridge. What would happen if terrorists took down the bridge between San Francisco and Marin County? How much of the region would be affected and for how long?     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

Perspective on the Economic Evolution of the European Union States Under the Impact of the Pandemic and Financial-Economic Crisis

The European Union,which is at the beginning of its term of office for all Member States in the European Parliament,the European Commission,its governing body a...     

中国养活自己能力的长期预测:技术和政策分析

中国拥有世界五分之一强的人口 ,收入又在迅速增长。因此 ,国际上很自然地会考虑或推测她在今后的几十年是否有能力养活自己。中国的人口预计将从 2 0 0 0年的 1 2 8亿增长到 2 0 2 0年的 1 4 6亿 ,和 2 0 3 0年的 1 4 9亿。与此同时 ,人均收入的增长将导致对家畜和鱼类产品更大的需求 ,因而对饲料的需求也将有很大的增长     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.     

Toward a Phylogenetic Reconstruction of Organizational Life

Synopsis Classification is an important activity that facilitates theory development in many academic disciplines. Scholars in fields such as organizational science, management science and economics and have long recognized that classification offers an approach for ordering and understanding the diversity of organizational taxa (groups of one or more similar organizational entities). However, even the most prominent organizational classifications have limited utility, as they tend to be shaped by a specific research bias, inadequate units of analysis and a standard neoclassical economic view that does not naturally accommodate the disequilibrium dynamics of modern competition. The result is a relatively large number of individual and unconnected organizational classifications, which tend to ignore the processes of change responsible for organizational diversity. Collectively they fail to provide any sort of universal system for ordering, compiling and presenting knowledge on organizational diversity. This paper has two purposes. First, it reviews the general status of the major theoretical approaches to biological and organizational classification and compares the methods and resulting classifications derived from each approach. Definitions of key terms and a discussion on the three principal schools of biological classification (evolutionary systematics, phenetics and cladistics) are included in this review. Second, this paper aims to encourage critical thinking and debate about the use of the cladistic classification approach for inferring and representing the historical relationships underpinning organizational diversity. This involves examining the feasibility of applying the logic of common ancestry to populations of organizations. Consequently, this paper is exploratory and preparatory in style, with illustrations and assertions concerning the study and classification of organizational diversity.