Estimating the range of economic impacts on farms of nutrient leaching reduction policies

Declining agricultural incomes, increasing concern over rural poverty and sporadic crises such as those of Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE) and Foot and Mouth Disease mean that the imposition of further costs on U.K. agriculture are likely to be politically and socially sensitive. Such additional costs are however on the agenda with the implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD; European Commission, 2000 ). The WFD aims to achieve “good ecological status” in EU water bodies reducing, inter alia, diffuse pollution from agriculture. In this study, we assess four possible WFD measures proposed to the U.K. Department for Environment, Food, and Rural Affairs: reducing inorganic fertilizer application, conversion of arable land to ungrazed grassland, reducing livestock stocking rates, and reducing livestock dietary N and P intakes. For each measure, changes in farm gross margins (FGMs) are estimated using a dataset of over 2000 farms. In contrast to previous analyses, which have focussed upon mean responses on stylized farms, our approach allows the analysis of the range of impacts across a wide variety of real‐world farms and farm types. Findings reveal high variability in impacts. Cost‐effectiveness analysis indicates that, on average, cropping farms seem capable of reducing nutrient leaching in a more cost‐efficient way than livestock or dairy enterprises.     

Impact of the European Water Framework Directive on local-level water management: Case study Oxunda Catchment, Sweden

The Water Framework Directive (WFD) of the European Union provides a common framework for water policy that focuses on holistic and integrated water management in river basins. In many member states, implementation of the WFD has shifted the main responsibility for local water issues from the municipal level to the regional or supra-regional levels. In this study, we investigated how the implementation of the WFD has influenced local-level water management including the interpretation of the new environmental quality standards. Specifically, we considered Sweden, which has traditionally had relatively strong governance at the municipal level. Because a sufficient amount of time has now passed for evaluation of WFD-related effects on operational water handling, we interviewed individuals directly involved in water planning and land use planning at the municipal level in one sub catchment in the Northern Baltic Sea River Basin District of Sweden, as well as representatives for superior levels and associations. Despite divergent views regarding the priority of water issues in physical planning among the local-level planners interviewed, they had all participated in successful inter-municipal pre-WFD collaboration projects. Although such collaborations could help increase the understanding and acceptance of WFD-related goals and costs, as well as facilitate conflict solving, as shown in the Oxunda Catchment, they have not gained much attention in the WFD implementation process. Additionally, physical planners have generally been reluctant to accept new environmental quality standards resulting from WFD implementation, in part because they lack precise definitions, but also because they could challenge the municipal routine of weighing various objectives against each other. Furthermore, despite WFD-related increases in ambition levels, lack of resource improvements at the municipal level were identified as potential problems by local environmental planners.     

Financial costs and benefits of a program of measures to implement a National Strategy on Biological Diversity in Germany

The implementation of the National Biodiversity Strategies and Actions Plans (NBSAP), as required by Article 6 of the UN Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD), would improve the base for political decisions by quantifying the costs and benefits of biodiversity conservation in monetary terms and by illustrating the benefits of related ecosystem services (ESS). However, so far the costs and benefits of the NBSAP have not been routinely estimated. This paper presents results from research quantifying the financial costs and benefits of implementing a set of measures based on the National Strategy on Biological Diversity in Germany (NBS). Based on the NBS and the Quality Status Reports of the EU Habitat Directive, a conservation program was developed consisting of land use changes for six ecosystems/land use types: forests, arable land, grassland, peatlands, wetlands and dry habitats. In addition to the benefits of maintaining biodiversity, two potential ESS benefits of the NBS, water purification and climate mitigation, are estimated as well as the financial costs of implementation. A nationwide contingent valuation study was undertaken to determine the benefits of maintaining biodiversity as a result of the conservation program. The benefits of the conservation program with regard to the ESS water purification are calculated for N-reduction in the leachate and based on abatement costs. The contribution of nature conservation to climate mitigation is calculated for the avoidance of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and based on damage costs. The results of the study indicate that the implementation of the NBS would lead to significant financial costs, but the benefits would exceed the financial costs of measures.     

Implementing the water framework directive in Denmark – Lessons on agricultural measures from a legal and regulatory perspective

One of the major challenges in the implementation of the Water Framework Directive (WFD) is how to address diffuse agricultural pollution of the aquatic environment. In Denmark the implementation of agricultural measures has been fraught with difficulty in the form of delays and legal proceedings, despite an ambitious starting point. Why has the implementation of the WFD been so difficult? Based on an analysis of three core components (effectiveness, scale and legal issues) of three agricultural measures (riparian zones, reduced management of streams and catch crops), the paper argues that the legal and regulatory complexity of adopting mandatory land use related measures at the national level to achieve site-specific environmental objectives was underestimated in a top-down political process. The ambitious mandatory policy measures, which added to existing high regulation pressure, led to regulatory challenges, such as possible violation of private property rights raising questions about the actual environmental effects at local level. Consequently, political acceptability and legitimacy of the agricultural measures were undermined, resulting in a gradual withdrawal of the measures and a policy failure. It is argued that the adoption of more flexible measures to be implemented at the local level could have resulted in fewer difficulties from an economic and legal point of view as measures could have been applied where there was a clear environmental benefit, and possibly also at a lower cost.     

Irrigation water pricing: differential impacts on irrigated farms

European water policy, as set out in the Water Framework Directive (WFD), requires all EU Member States to implement volumetric water pricing at rates that roughly cover the total costs of providing water services. The objective of this paper is to develop a methodology that, for the different types of farm in an irrigable area, will enable us to analyse the differential impact that a pricing policy for irrigation water would have. For this purpose, Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT) mathematical programming models were used. The methodology is implemented on a representative area in the Duero Valley in Spain. Our results show the usefulness of differential analysis in evaluating the impact of a water pricing policy. This allows significant differences in the evolution of agricultural incomes to be observed, as well as the recovery of costs by the State, demand for agricultural employment and the consumption of agrochemicals resulting from rising prices of irrigation water in various groups of farmers within a given irrigated area.     

Towards the implementation of the European Water Framework Directive?: Lessons learned from water quality simulations in an agricultural watershed

The main objective of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) is the achievement of a good ecological and chemical status of the water environment (water bodies). This status corresponds to the limit value of Germany's Working Group of the Federal States on Water Problems Issues (LAWA) for water quality class II (3 mg/l total nitrogen). The rivers in the intensively cropped Upper Ems River basin (northwestern Germany) show total nitrogen concentrations in excess of 5–10 mg/l. Hence, the objective of our study was to find a land use and land management scenario that would reduce the total nitrogen concentration to meet the WFD requirements for good ecological and chemical status. We developed consecutive land use and management scenarios on the basis of policy instruments such as the support of agro-environmental measures by Common Agricultural Policy and regional landscape development programs. The model simulations were done by using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Results of SWAT scenario calculations showed that drastic measures, which are unrealistic from a socio-economic point of view, would be needed to achieve the water quality target in the basin (reduction of arable land from 77.2% to 46% [13% organic farming], increase of pasture from 4% to 15%, afforestation from 10% to 21%, increase of protected wetlands from 0% to 9%, etc.). The example shows additionally that the achievement of the WFD targets is only possible with a consideration of regional landscape and land use distinctions. A related problem yet to be addressed is the general lack of measured water quality data with which to calibrate and validate water quality models such as SWAT. This adds considerable uncertainty to already complicated and uncertainty situations. Thus, improved strategies for water quality monitoring, and data accessibility must be established.     

Estimating the opportunity costs of reducing carbon dioxide emissions via avoided deforestation,using integrated assessment modelling

Estimates show that, in recent years, deforestation and forest degradation accounted for about 17% of global greenhouse gas emissions. The implementation of REDD (Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Forest Degradation in Developing Countries) is suggested to provide substantial emission reductions at low costs, although cost estimates show large uncertainty. Cost estimates can differ, as they depend on the approach chosen, for example: giving an economic stimulus to entire countries, taking landowners as actors in a REDD framework, or starting from protecting carbon-rich areas. This last approach was chosen for this analysis. Proper calculation of the economic cost requires an integrated modelling approach involving biophysical impact calculations and their associated economic effects. To date, only a few global modelling studies have applied such an approach. In modelling REDD measures, the actual implementation of REDD can take many forms, with implications for the results. This study assumes that non-Annex I countries will protect carbon-rich areas against deforestation, and therefore will refrain from using these areas as agricultural land. The opportunity costs of reducing deforestation within the framework of REDD were assessed using an integrated economic and land-use modelling approach comprising the global economic LEITAP model and the biophysical IMAGE model. One of the main methodological challenges is the representation of land use and the possibility to convert woodlands land into agricultural land. We endogenised the availability of agricultural land by introducing a flexible land supply curve, and represented the implementation of REDD policies as a reduction in the maximum amount of unmanaged land that potentially would be available for conversion to agriculture, in various regions in the world. In a series of model experiments, carbon-rich areas in non-Annex I countries were protected from deforestation. In each consecutive scenario the protected area was increased, starting off with the most carbon rich lands, worldwide systematically working down to areas with less carbon storage. The associated opportunity costs, expressed in terms of GDP reduction, were calculated with the economic LEITAP model. The resulting net reduction in carbon dioxide emissions from land-use change was calculated with the IMAGE model. From the sequence of experiments, marginal cost curves were constructed, relating carbon dioxide emission reductions to the opportunity costs. The results showed that globally a maximum of around 2.5 Gt carbon dioxide emissions could be avoided, annually. However, regional differences in opportunity costs are large and were found to range from about 0 to 3.2 USD per tonne carbon dioxide in Africa, 2 to 9 USD in South America and Central America, and 20 to 60 USD in Southeast Asia. These results are comparable to other studies that have calculated these costs, in terms of both opportunity costs and the regional distribution of emissions reduction.     

The attitudes of recreational user representatives to pollution reduction and the implementation of the European Water Framework Directive

Under the European Water Framework Directive (WFD), all water bodies must be of ‘good ecological status’ by 2015. One of the major beneficiaries of this will be those who use water for sport and recreation activities. It is certainly the case that some waters do contain – at some times – concentrations of pollutants sufficient to be a potential threat to public health but there is little robust evidence that water quality is a major constraint to many water-based activities. This paper addresses the current evidence deficit through a survey of recreational user representatives, exploring the cultural and political influences on decisions about when the quality of water is sufficient for their activity to take place. Using a reading of Bourdieu's ‘feel for the game’, the paper argues that there is a spectrum of involvement, contact and participation that conditions use and, thus, helps to establish an appropriate context for understanding the potential impacts on water-based recreation of the implementation of the WFD.     

Land use scenario development as a tool for watershed management within the Rio Mannu Basin

The Rio Mannu River Basin (Sardinia, Italy) is undergoing a process of agricultural intensification. Like many Mediterranean areas, this basin is characterized by water shortages and diffuse pollution from agricultural sources. Hence the objective of this study was to develop possible land use and land management scenarios that could constitute an alternative to the current watershed management. Several land use and land management scenarios were formulated and analyzed with local stakeholders, and two were selected and simulated as realistic in consideration of the socio-economical aspects of the study area. Scenario 1 involves agricultural practices that include a reduction in fertilizer use to meet the Water Framework Directive requirements for “good” status of water bodies. Scenario 2 introduces rapeseed cultivation, replacing durum wheat in a small area, to investigate the impact of biofuel plant cultivation on water quality. Each option was assessed by considering the effects on water quality, crop yields and economic benefits. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied to simulate hydrological processes and evaluate current and future nutrient loads. This model requires adequate streamflow data for calibration and validation. However, as is the case for many Mediterranean basins, insufficient data were available. Therefore, a methodology was developed and tested to calibrate hydrological processes based on the transposition of a parameter set from a gauged catchment located in the same region. This study suggests that a sound use of fertilizers could substantially reduce the amount of nutrients flowing into surface waters, although the effects of such a policy on crop yield and farm income would be negative in some cases. Moreover, the results clearly predict that the replacement of durum wheat with rapeseed (a biofuel crop), could offer a margin of profit, but would have a negative impact on water quality due to increased nutrient losses. Consequently, this option is unsuitable for this area. Furthermore, it can be inferred from these results that the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources may have a negative impact on the objectives of the EU Water Framework Directive. Clearly, this process needs to be regulated, taking into account environmental and socio-economical aspects.     

Determinants and impact of sustainable land management (SLM) investments: A systems evaluation in the Blue Nile Basin,Ethiopia

Ongoing debate over water management along the Blue Nile and land degradation in Ethiopia emphasizes the need for efficiency gains in agricultural production through sustainable land management (SLM). However, previous SLM studies overlook the tradeoffs involved in maintaining SLM investments over time. We address this limitation by combining a household survey that evaluates the economic impacts of SLM investments and maintenance, with a hydrological model that explores location‐specific infrastructure effects. We then use a multi‐market model to evaluate the impacts of alternative SLM investments on agricultural production, prices, and incomes over time. Analysis suggests SLM investments must be maintained for at least seven years to show significant increases in value of production, and that terraces on moderate and steep slopes are most effective in increasing agricultural yields. However, the benefits of terracing do not outweigh the cost of foregone off‐farm labor opportunities, nor compensate for lower agricultural prices from increased supply. Thus, SLM investments must be paired with other input and infrastructure investments, as well as subsidies for initial labor costs, in order to incentivize adoption and long‐term SLM maintenance.     

Modelling socially optimal land allocations for sugar cane growing in North Queensland: a linked mathematical programming and choice modelling study

A modelling framework is developed to determine the joint economic and environmental net benefits of alternative land allocation strategies. Estimates of community preferences for preservation of natural land, derived from a choice modelling study, are used as input to a model of agricultural production in an optimisation framework. The trade-offs between agricultural production and environmental protection are analysed using the sugar industry of the Herbert River district of north Queensland as an example. Spatially-differentiated resource attributes and the opportunity costs of natural land determine the optimal trade-offs between production and conservation for a range of sugar prices.     

Implementation of the European Water Framework Directive: Integration of hydrological and regional planning at the Segura River Basin,southeast Spain

The implementation of the European Water Framework Directive (WFD) is a great challenge for a catchment area such as the Segura River Basin. An intense use of hydrological resources has taken place in this semi-arid region of southern Spain, with the huge territorial transformation, demonstrated in the expansion of the irrigated areas and the growth of urbanization, principally in the last few decades. The provision of water to the population in particular has improved since the middle of the 20th century owing to the Mancomunidad de los Canales del Taibilla (MCT) and to their extraordinary development of hydrological infrastructure. The MCT also has to manage various resources, principally the transfer from the Tagus River to the Segura.     

Agent‐based Modelling of Climate Adaptation and Mitigation Options in Agriculture

Computer simulation models can provide valuable insights for climate‐related analysis and help streamline policy interventions for improved adaptation and mitigation in agriculture. Computable general equilibrium (CGE) and partial equilibrium (PE) models are currently being expanded to include land‐use change and energy markets so that the effects of various policy measures on agricultural production can be assessed. Agent‐based modelling (ABM) or multi‐agent systems (MAS) have been suggested as a complementary tool for assessing farmer responses to climate change in agriculture and how these are affected by policies. MAS applied to agricultural systems draw on techniques used for Recursive Farm Programming, but include models of all individual farms, their spatial interactions and the natural environment. In this article, we discuss the specific insights MAS provide for developing robust policies and land‐use strategies in response to climate change. We show that MAS are well‐suited for uncertainty analysis and can thereby complement existing simulation approaches to advance the understanding and implementation of effective climate‐related policies in agriculture.     

Optimal Design of Agri‐environmental Schemes under Asymmetric Information for Improving Farmland Biodiversity

Information asymmetry is one of the main obstacles to the effective design and implementation of agri‐environmental schemes (AES). The literature has generally addressed this issue through the use of principal‐agent models (PAM). We develop a PAM to support optimal design of a new AES for improving farmland biodiversity. We use the results of choice experiments to assess both the costs incurred by the agent for the provision of biodiversity and the resulting social benefits. We also make a number of novel contributions such as the inclusion of a non‐linear non‐compliance detection curve, a sensitivity analysis to identify which parameter estimates have a critical impact on PAM results, and analysis of the efficiency of different sanction scenarios. The results suggest that: (i) the second‐best solutions differ significantly from the optimal solutions attainable with perfect information, with farmers being strongly over‐compensated for the extra costs associated with improved biodiversity; (ii) monitoring levels should be higher; (iii) the sanction system should be tougher. Sensitivity analysis shows the need for accurate estimates of the marginal cost of public funds and the costs and benefits associated with the public goods, which represent the key parameters determining PAM results.     

The politics of multi-scalar action in river basin management: Implementing the EU Water Framework Directive (WFD)

Scholars of environmental governance are increasingly intrigued by issues of scale. Efforts to institutionalise river basin management represent a pertinent exemplar, as they aspire to strengthen hydrological vis-à-vis political–administrative scales of governance. The EU Water Framework Directive (WFD) is one of the most ambitious policy initiatives worldwide to reconfigure water management planning around the hydrological scale of river basins. Whilst it is widely assumed that the WFD is rescaling water governance in Europe, few empirical studies have been conducted to ascertain how far this is the case, what scalar strategies and practices are emerging and to what effect. The paper addresses these open issues with a study analysing the multi-scalar actions of water authorities, water management organisations, local authorities and interest groups involved in implementing the WFD. It investigates how stakeholders are acting scalar from the local to the European scale and back to further their interests in the course of WFD implementation, focussing on the Wupper sub-basin in Germany. Drawing for conceptual insight on the human geography debate on the politics of scale and processes of rescaling, we demonstrate how all relevant stakeholders are increasingly working across scales to advance their interests but in very different ways, with different degrees of deliberation and to different effect. A typology of multi-scalar action is developed to interpret this diversity. The paper draws conclusions on how multi-scalar action is altering not only power relations between the actors but also the scalar configurations themselves.     

Integrated economic-hydrologic water modeling at the basin scale: the Maipo river basin

Increasing competition for water across sectors increases the importance of the river basin as the appropriate unit of analysis to address the challenges facing water resources management; and modeling at this scale can provide essential information for policy makers in their resource allocation decisions. This paper introduces an integrated economic‐hydrologic modeling framework that accounts for the interactions between water allocation, farmer input choice, agricultural productivity, non‐agricultural water demand, and resource degradation in order to estimate the social and economic gains from improvement in the allocation and efficiency of water use. The model is applied to the Maipo river basin in Chile. Economic benefits to water use are evaluated for different demand management instruments, including markets in tradable water rights, based on production and benefit functions with respect to water for the agricultural and urban‐industrial sectors.     

AGRICULTURAL FLOOD ALLEVIATION BENEFIT ASSESSMENT: A CASE STUDY

The cost of flooding on farm land depends on land use, on the frequency, seasonality, duration and depth of flooding, and on water quality. This paper describes a method to calculate the average annual cost of flooding and the extra benefits or costs associated with given changes in flooding regime, illustrated by means of a simplified case study which examines the agricultural benefits of reduced summer flooding on grass in an area of environmental importance. Using hydrological and agro-economic data, the method derives the cost of individual flood events occurring in any one month for a given land use, weights these according to observed seasonality of flood flows, and derives average annual costs per hectare and for the floodplain as a whole for given levels of flood risk. The method is useful for appraising river flood alleviation schemes whereby the effects of changes in flood risk, flood seasonality or land use can be assessed.     

我国耕地非农化研究进展及展望

［目的］通过梳理我国耕地非农化的研究进展，研判现有研究成效及不足，并结合新时代耕地非农化的诉求，厘定未来研究导向和重点，为增强耕地非农化成果精准性提供参考和借鉴。［方法］该文采用文献综述法和对比分析法总结我国耕地非农化的研究及发展趋势。［结果］（1）从研究内容上看，我国耕地非农化研究内容丰富，耕地非农化发展现状主要涉及耕地非农化时空演变特征及规律，发展异质性显著； 耕地非农化对经济发展的正面影响较为明显，但对社会及生态环境的负面影响更为突出； 驱动力及驱动机制对耕地非农化的作用具有两面性； 耕地非农化体制机制、技术层面的调控因地区性发展差异而有所不同； 研究多以耕地非农化的静态为主，动态性不强，对耕地非农化发展过程的控制与管控研究存在不足。（2）从研究尺度上看，我国耕地非农化研究集中在以全国和省市域为主的宏观地域上，对全国以及各省份及其内部范畴的耕地非农化做出研究分析，该尺度范围内耕地非农化发展大体呈不均衡态势，而目前我国对于微观层面上的研究相对较少。（3）从研究方法上看，学者们多以定性方法为主，采用定性与定量相结合的方法研究土地利用问题，通过数理统计分析研究耕地非农化的驱动机制，并结合遥感与GIS技术对土地利用变化进行动态监测，但多目标、多学科综合集成的智能体技术应用较少。［结论］创新耕地非农化的研究方法，构建智能决策模型； 加强耕地非农化过程管控研究，提高实时监控力度与吻合度； 厘清微观主体的行为特征，完善多尺度、多层次结构是今后研究的重点。     

Water resources and land use planning systems in Portugal—Exploring better synergies through Ria de Aveiro

The paper discusses the relevance of a stronger articulation between land use and water resources systems to enhance the success of the Water Framework Directive. Using article 11 of the WFD, this paper assess (i) how the Spatial Planning and Urban Development Law as well as the Portuguese Water Law converge to promote better integration of water resources into spatial planning, (ii) how their prospects are developed at the regional basis, namely through the Regional Spatial Development Plan and River Basin Management Plan, and (iii) how these are prepared to inform other planning instruments at the local level. It shows through a spatial analysis of the regional land-use plan and the river basin plan as applied over the Ria de Aveiro estuary area, the conflicts and opportunities for stronger synergies. The paper concludes with a critical analysis of the integration of the spatial planning and water resources planning systems in Portugal, and reveals new insights and challenges for more productive synergies between these systems.     

A MIXED INTEGER LINEAR PROGRAMMING EVALUATION OF SALINITY AND WATERLOGGING CONTROL OPTIONS IN THE MURRAY-DARLING BASIN OF AUSTRALIA

Pollution of the River Murray by salt imposes costs on domestic and industrial users in Adelaide and to irrigators on the River Murray. Salt enters the Murray-Darling system through saline ground water aquifers and from irrigation and drainage of saline land. Irrigation and drainage generate benefits from improved agricultural productivity and impose costs through increased salt loads to the Murray-Darling system. The salinity of the River Murray can be reduced by pumping highly saline ground water into evaporation basins before it enters the River Murray. This paper presents a mixed integer linear programming model which is used to determine the mix of ground water interception schemes and land improvement schemes that minimises the net present value (over a time horizon of 30 years) of total Murray-Darling Basin costs due to salinity and waterlogging. By varying a target salinity level, the mix of works that yields various salinity targets in the River Murray at minimum cost is obtained. The sensitivity of the optimal solution to prescribed changes in costs and benefits of projects and to a longer planning horizon is examined.