On the Characterisation and Measurement of the Redistributive Effect of Agricultural Policy

The article proposes a coherent framework for the evaluation of the redistributive performance of agricultural policy. An illustrative study shows that the vertical stance of policy in Scotland was progressive in absolute terms, reflecting the chronic dependence of Scottish agriculture on policy transfers. Nevertheless, the overall redistributive effect of policy was to increase absolute inequality in farm incomes because of horizontal inequities in the incidence of transfers, though neither systematic discrimination between farm types nor systematic reranking was the main cause. The targeting of policy transfers could be improved by the use of indicator variables more strongly correlated with pre‐transfer incomes.     

Income Mobility and Income Inequality in Scottish Agriculture

The paper explores the distributional consequences of farm income mobility in Scotland, focusing on the extent to which farm income inequality is a chronic as opposed to a temporary phenomenon and on the nature of the dynamic processes driving changes in farm income inequality over time. The empirical results reveal that the majority of farm income inequality was long‐run or structural in nature, reflecting differences in both farm business size and farm‐specific factors such as land quality, managerial ability and business structures. Evidence of absolute convergence in farm incomes is explained by short‐run adjustments towards equilibrium or target incomes conditional upon prices, technology and farm business size, with farm business growth conditional upon survival found to have had no significant redistributive effect.     

Classical Horizontal Inequities in the Provision of Agricultural Income Support

This article explores the redistributive effects of classical horizontal inequities induced by agricultural policy. Within-farm type horizontal inequity is associated with differences in the level of support received by farms of a given type and level of pre-support income. Between-farm type horizontal inequity arises from systematic differences in support levels between commodity regimes. The overall redistributive effect of such inequities in Scottish agriculture is shown to be substantial, though systematic discrimination between farm types is not the major cause. The imperfect targeting of support revealed by the empirical findings has implications for the design of policy.     

Intervention bias in agricultural policy

This paper re-examines the motivation for government intervention in agriculture to support farm prices and incomes. A model is outlined in which the government has a preference for higher farm incomes but fails to provide farmers with the socially optimal level of price support, even when one accepts the government's income redistribution goals as a valid reflection of social preference. It is shown that agricultural policy has an intervention bias: government price supports generally are higher than would be socially optimal. The source of the intervention bias is a time inconsistency in optimal agricultural policy formation, caused by the government's inability to precommit to a rule for setting future price support levels. Simulation results indicate that in some circumstances the intervention bias in agricultural policy can be substantial.     

EFFECTS ON FARM INCOMES AND RURAL LABOUR OF A RELATIVE INCREASE IN WAGES*

We use the concept of the elasticity of farm incomes with respect to changes in input prices to analyse the effects of a large increase in relative wages on selected measures of farm incomes. In order to estimate the elasticity of farm incomes we have to estimate elasticities and cross-elasticities of demand and supply for farm labour and capital. The estimates of elasticity of demand for operator and hired labour allow us to calculate the impact of a rise in wages on numbers of farmers and hired labour employed in agriculture.     

Farm-scale ecological and economic impacts of agricultural change in the uplands

Recent decades have witnessed substantial losses of biodiversity in Europe, partly driven by the ecological changes associated with intensification of agricultural production. These changes have particularly affected avian (bird) diversity in marginal areas such as the uplands of the UK. Future trends for upland birds will likely be impacted by changes in agricultural support regimes, such as those currently envisaged in on-going reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy. We developed integrated ecological-economic models, using seven different indicators of biodiversity based on avian species richness and individual bird densities. The models represent six different types of farms which are typical for the UK uplands, and were used to assess the outcomes of different agricultural futures. Our results show that the impacts of these future agricultural scenarios on farm incomes, land use and biodiversity are very diverse across policy scenarios and farm types. Moreover, each policy scenario produces un-equal distributions of farm income changes and gains and losses in alternative biodiversity indicators. This shows that generalisations of the effects of policy and pricing changes on farm incomes, land uses and biodiversity can be misleading. Our results also suggest that a focus on umbrella species or biodiversity indicators (such as total species richness) can miss important compositional effects.     

Rural Population Growth, 1950–1990: The Roles of Human Capital, Industry Structure, and Government Policy

Human capital raises rural incomes, but this effect is swamped by higher returns to human capital in urban markets. This leads to "brain drain" from rural areas. Populations grow more rapidly in rural counties that have a diversified employment base. Farm population grows faster (or declines more slowly) in counties with relatively high farm income, and nonfarm populations grow faster in counties with relatively high nonfarm income. However, higher farm incomes lead to slower nonfarm population growth and vice versa. Rural county government services financed by local taxes or debt have neutral or negative effects on population growth.     

Farm Poverty and Safety Nets

Farm families with incomes below the poverty line are far less likely than wealthier farmers to receive farm support payments. Using data from the 1989–2004 Current Population Survey, we find that poor farm families are also not participating in other assistance programs. Controlling for other factors, eligible farm families have substantially lower participation rates in the Food Stamp Program and in Medicaid than eligible nonfarm families. Removing farm safety net program payments would increase the number of farmers eligible for these programs but, in the absence of behavioral changes, would only lead to small increases in the number of recipients.     

The Role of Ownership in Determining the Rural Economic Benefits of On‐shore Wind Farms

The development of the wind energy sector is often promoted as a means of supporting rural economies. This paper focuses on how the ownership structure of on‐shore wind power plants (external, farmer or community) affects the size and distribution of impacts within the rural part of a region. Empirical analysis is based on a regional computable general equilibrium model of North East Scotland with the results compared to those generated from a standard social accounting matrix multiplier analysis. With no local ownership, while rural GDP increases, there is almost no effect on household incomes due to the limited direct linkages of the on‐shore wind sector. Local ownership increases the household income benefits but there are still limited positive spill‐over effects on the wider economy unless factor income is re‐invested in local capital. With re‐investment, farm household ownership gives rise to the largest increase in total household income but community ownership gives rise to the largest increase in rural (non‐farm) household incomes and welfare. The results contribute to the on‐going debate about the opportunity cost of external asset ownership in rural areas.     

A Note on the Economic Significance of Dwellings on Farms

Using information from the Farm Business Survey for England and Wales, the paper explores the economic contribution of farm dwellings to the farm business in 1983 and 1993. Despite the stagnant property market and increasing farm incomes in the early 1990s, rent revenues rose as a proportion of net farm incomes. Including a low imputed rental value for farmhouses in farm income calculations may mean that incomes are being understated. Returns from letting property and a low imputed rent for the farmhouse help to stabilise farm incomes.     

Marginal Analysis of Income Mobility Effects by Income Source with an Application to the Agricultural Policy Mix

The Note makes novel use of a decomposition of the Shorrocks mobility index by income source to identify the impact on farm income mobility of a marginal change in each component of income. An empirical application shows that a revenue‐neutral change in the balance of agricultural protection between market‐based support and direct payments would not have reduced the variability of relative farm incomes in Scottish agriculture.     

Brexit: How Will UK Agriculture Fare?

There is little doubt that Brexit would have significant implications for UK agriculture, a sector with strong trade links to the EU and strong reliance on CAP income support. This article reports preliminary results from employing a Computable General Equilibrium Model, a Partial Equilibrium Model and Farm Level Models to explore selected trade and domestic policy scenarios post‐Brexit. These allow for the estimation of changes in producer prices, production and farm incomes against a baseline scenario of continued EU membership. Under a Free Trade Agreement with the EU, agricultural impacts are relatively modest. By contrast, unilateral removal of import tariffs has significant negative impacts on prices, production and incomes. Adoption of the EU's WTO tariff schedule for all imports favours net importers (e.g. dairy) and harms net exporters (e.g. sheep). Given the strong dependence of most UK farms on direct payments, their removal worsens negative impacts of new trade arrangements and offsets positive impacts. Impacts vary across different types and sizes of farm, but also regionally. However, the period of adjustment to new trade and domestic policy conditions may prove very challenging for a large number of farm businesses.     

PART TIME FARMING—IMPLICATIONS FOR FARM FAMILY INCOME

The Common Agricultural Policy has been more successful at securing food supplies than at providing adequate incomes for small farmers. Among proposals for resolving the problem, part time farming is a promising option. To date, agricultural policy has at best ignored farms below the ‘full time’ threshold, at worst discriminated against them. The new Agricultural Structures policy embodies a more positive approach, however. Robson's paper calls for better information on farm households with other gainful activities. Statistics from the 1983 Farm Structure Survey provide insight into the nature and extent of part time farming in the European Community. Neglect of part time farming in the UK up to now may have stemmed from its perceived irrelevance for agricultural policy. Now that it is being viewed in a more favourable light, policy makers need to be appraised of the facts. Currently about one third of main agricultural holdings in England and Wales are part time farms in the sense that farmer or spouse combines another paid job with farming. Gasson's paper explores the nature of these other jobs and features of their distribution. Following trends in other developed countries, non-farm activities are becoming increasingly important for UK farming families. Growth in part time farming has obvious implications for income support, widely agreed to be the fundamental objective of agricultural policy in western Europe. Existing farm income measures are not adequate for assessing the extent of the income problem in agriculture. Data from the Inland Revenue's Survey of Personal Incomes and the Wye College part time farming survey fill some of the gaps left in official measurements. Non-farming earnings, pensions and investment income contribute significantly to farm household incomes. A majority of part time farming families in England and Wales make more from other sources than from farming. Although average incomes of part time farmers may exceed those of full timers, Hill's paper identifies a section of part time farming families with inadequate incomes from all sources.     

Economic impacts of East Coast Fever immunization on smallholder farms,Kenya: a simulation analysis

A whole farm simulation model, Technology Impact Evaluation System (TIES), was used to assess ex-ante financial and economic impacts of immunization of dairy cattle against East Coast Fever (ECF) by the infection and treatment method (ITM) on smallholder farms from two sites in Kenya. Four alternative strategics of immunization in combination with different levels of acaricide use were compared with the current acaricide-based method of control. The economic impacts were estimated using simulated net present values, present values of ending net worth, internal rates of return, benefit-cost ratios, annual cash farm incomes, cash expenses, and net farm incomes. The results from the analysis indicate that ECF immunization strategics are financially and economically viable on smallholder farms. Based on the risk preference for risk averse producers, the most preferred strategy was to adopt ITM in combination with a 75% reduction in acaricidc use. The results obtained provide a good indication of the relative orders of magnitude of the farm level financial and economic effects of ECF immunization by ITM. The whole farm simulation model used for the analysis has the advantage of incorporating the risks involved in farm production. Whole farm simulation offers a flexible method for assessing the financial and economic impacts of alternative disease control methods on smallholder farms.     

What Future for Agricultural Safety Net Programs?

The early 1990s held the promise of decoupled farm programs in Canada and the U.S.; however, the potential benefits of decoupling have been eroded by ad hoc disaster programs. This paper assesses the benefits and difficulties of disaster programs relative to traditional farm programs, and proposes gross margin insurance as an approach to safety nets that captures the benefits of both. Gross margin insurance is applied to hogs in Ontario and Minnesota as case studies, with the cost and level of income protection compared. We show that based on simple estimates of actuarially fair premium costs, gross margin insurance compares favorably with programs that have been used to support hog farm incomes in both regions.     

Effects of supermarket monopsony pricing on agriculture

Potential effects of alleged monopsony pricing of farm food products by supermarkets on farm product prices, quantities, incomes and land values are assessed relative to competitive behaviour. A long‐run comparative static equilibrium model is used. For export‐competing and import‐competing products, the farm food input supply curve facing the supermarkets is close to perfectly elastic and this limits monopsony behaviour. At the margin, the opportunity to reallocate agricultural land between traded and nontraded farm products means a highly elastic supply function for nontraded food inputs facing supermarkets and very limited monopsony effects.     

Food Sovereignty and Fome Zero: Connecting Public Food Procurement Programmes to Sustainable Rural Development in Brazil

The global discourse on food sovereignty suggests several mechanisms for improving food security and agricultural livelihoods, including redistributive land reform and restructuring of markets to improve food distribution and access. In Brazil, the Fome Zero (Zero Hunger) social welfare programme has created innovative links between public nutrition and food security programmes and rural development initiatives through mediated market support for the family farm sector. We report on a participatory assessment of the experience of land reform beneficiaries in seven municipalities in Mato Grosso, Brazil, who were contracted to produce food for the Programa de Aquisição de Alimentos (Food Procurement Programme, PAA) and the Programa Nacional de Alimentação Escolar (National School Feeding Programme, PNAE) under the umbrella of Fome Zero. This analysis offers insight into the opportunities and challenges related to participation in mediated ‘farm‐to‐institution’ food procurement programmes, and assesses their influence on key food sovereignty principles, including agro‐ecological transition, increased market stability and farmer autonomy.     

TWO-TIER PRICING FOR MILK: A RE-EXAMINATION

Principal objections to two-tier pricing have centred on administrative complexities and the ‘transparent’ nature of its cost. However, the credibility of two-tier pricing for milk within the European Community is now enhanced by the existence of a quota scheme and by recent levels of budgetary expenditure. Potential features of two-tier pricing are that farm support can be more readily directed at selected recipients and that lowering of market prices for milk relieves consumers from some of the burden of this support. A major attraction is that the existing quota system allows for an immediate ready-made transition. In this paper, two applications are developed. Both allow varying combinations of quota level and support price, but differ in their impact on producers' incomes. Some degree of national flexibility within the Community is also explored.     

How would global trade liberalization affect rural and regional incomes in Australia?

Agricultural protection in rich countries, which had depressed Australian farm incomes via its impact on Australia’s terms of trade, has diminished over the past two decades. So too has agricultural export taxation in poor countries, which has had the opposite impact on those terms of trade. Meanwhile, however, import protection for developing country farmers has been steadily growing. To what extent are Australian farmers and rural regions still adversely affected by farm and non‐farm price‐ and trade‐distortive policies abroad? This paper draws on new estimates of the current extent of those domestic and foreign distortions: first, to model their net impact on Australia’s terms of trade (using the World Bank’s Linkage model of the global economy); and second, to model the effects of that terms of trade impact on output and real incomes in rural versus urban and other regions and households within Australia as of 2004 (using Monash’s multi‐regional TERM model of the Australian economy).     

Future Changes in British Agriculture: Projecting Divergent Farm Household Behaviour

The recent decline in farm incomes has focused attention on farmers' uneven propensity to adjust and adapt. Changes in farm policies are slowly redirecting the support paid to farmers in Europe, and further reforms are envisaged. This paper argues that farmers in Britain are likely to pursue highly diverse strategies in this changed context, according to their individual circumstances, values and attitudes. These groups (essentially ideal types) are derived both from in‐depth qualitative interviews and from a cluster analysis of variables relating to the farm and to the farm household's socialisation and attitudes. The paper seeks to draw out the implications of divergent farm household behaviour for future structural change, and for agricultural and rural policy. Opportunities are identified for the UK government to implement the EU Rural Development Regulation in ways that would suit the varied circumstances of British farmers in the postproductivist transition.