Decomposing local fiscal multipliers: Evidence from Japan

Recent studies on fiscal policy use cross-sectional data and estimate local fiscal multipliers along with spillovers. This paper estimates local fiscal multipliers with spillovers using Japanese prefectural data comparable with the national accounts. We estimate the local fiscal multiplier on output to be 1.7 at the regional level. We decompose the regional fiscal multiplier into the prefectural fiscal multiplier and the region-wide effect. Converting the latter component into the spillover, we find that the spillover is positive and small in size. We also decompose the regional fiscal multiplier on output into multipliers on the expenditure components. Our estimates suggest that there are crowding-in effects of government spending on consumption and investment. Moreover, we find that the regional fiscal multiplier on absorption exceeds 2.0 and that the spillover to absorption is considerable in contrast to the spillover to output.     

基础设施建设支出、结构性减税与最优政策选择

财政政策的最优政策选择问题对于国家宏观调控政策的出台具有指导意义。既往的研究忽略了利用动态一般均衡的方法探求具有双重外部性的基础设施建设支出与结构性减税支出的政策选择问题。本文利用引入基础设施建设支出和结构性减税的新凯恩斯DSGE模型,测算比较基建支出和结构性减税的政策福利效应。研究表明：具有双重外部性的基础设施建设支出不仅可以通过提高生产效率的方式促进产出,还可以通过挤入居民消费的方式加强政策福利效应。经过测算,短期的基建支出乘数大于结构性减税的政策乘数。同时,基建支出长期平均产出乘数小于结构性减税的平均产出乘数。与结构性减税政策相比,增加基建支出对于财政资金有限的政府是短期内更加有效的产出刺激政策,但在长期中,结构性减税政策不仅具有较高的政策效应,还可以从消费、劳动、投资等角度实现结构性政策目标。进一步研究发现,地区经济发展水平的不同会导致各地区的最优政策选择存在差异性：发达地区可以通过结构性税收政策解决结构性问题的同时实现长期经济增长;而欠发达地区则更应该注重运用基础设施建设为主的支出政策以促进经济增长;但随着人口逐渐从欠发达地区流出,提高欠发达地区的基建支出是否是可行之策,还需要考虑区域协调发展等诸多因素。     

Backward linkages from construction. Exploring the economic development potential of Scottish building supplies

One argument for increasing construction investment is the number of jobs and related multipliers associated with property investment. However, economic activity does not begin and end with actual construction: there are important backward linkages into the input markets for construction. If these markets can be shown to be primarily indigenous or at least with the potential to be locally-based, then there are wider local and regional benefits that may accrue from construction programmes. This paper is based on recent Scottish research which traced back the linkages from construction to specific building supplies markets in materials, semi-finished and finished products. Strong economy-wide multiplier effects are identified for construction output, for those on low incomes and in terms of job creation. Scottish construction is found to be primarily self-contained with consequent opportunities to maximise the local economic impact of construction work. The research suggests that policies need to target specific supply industries, meet the skills shortage challenge and confront the problems associated with construction tendering.     

Local fiscal multipliers and population aging in Japan

This study examines how the effectiveness of fiscal policy depends on population aging. To this end, this study estimates the local fiscal multipliers in Japan. Results suggest that the estimated local fiscal multiplier on output is larger in non-aged areas than aged areas, and that the effects on the number of workers are not statistically significant in either area type. Additionally, the multipliers on private investment are only higher than one in non-aged prefectures. Results also indicate that the multiplier generated by an increase in government investment is larger than that in government consumption. These results indicate fewer slack resources in aged areas that can be mobilized in response to increased government spending.     

Assessing Multiplier Effects in the Russian Economy: Input-Output Approach

The article presents the calculation of multiplier effects in the modern economy of Russia. The output multipliers by different sectors of the economy have been estimated using a method based on a static input–output model. The article has analyzed the limitations and possibilities of applying a method of calculating the multiplier effects.     

Impacts of new universities on hosting cities and the implications for Kimberley,Northern Cape,South Africa

This research investigated the impact of the establishment of a new university on hosting cities by reviewing the literature on such impacts. The aim of the article is to establish the likely impact of a new university (Sol Plaatjie University) to be established in the city of Kimberley during 2014. The study found that generally a university could impact its hosting city in terms of its local economy, employment, human capital, social character and real-estate market. Given the current characteristics and demographic profile of Kimberley, it is likely that positive impacts of a new university in Kimberley would include increased spending capacity in the local economy and short-term employment gains during construction of the university infrastructure. The proposed university could, however, exacerbate the existing pressure on the rental market in Kimberley and encourage the out-migration of specific skilled professionals. The research concludes with a number of steps to be taken by a hosting city that could contribute to strengthening a university's role as an anchor for urban development.     

Selection from Many Investments with Managerial Private Information*

We investigate capital investment problems when a manager knows the costs of a set of available projects, while the owner only holds probabilistic beliefs about these costs. With mutually exclusive projects, an optimal policy can be defined by a series of cost targets, one for each of the possible projects. The project with the lowest reported cost relative to the target is chosen, and funded as if the cost were equal to the target. The optimal investment policy can deviate from a traditional policy of selecting the project with the highest, positive net present value (NPV) in a number of ways. First, under-investment arises to limit the manager's ability to capture the economic rents. Second, when investment takes place, it is not always the project with the highest NPV that is implemented. Third, projects with lower cost variability can be favored. We extend the analysis to non-mutually exclusive projects. With two independent projects, batch processing is superior to individual appraisal whenever both optimal individual appraisal cost targets are interior. Individual appraisal ignores the impact of individual targets on incentives to report the costs of other potential projects. Batch processing can improve individual assessment by cost effective switching of investment away from the individual projects and into the batch as a whole. The results suggest that the common practice of analyzing batches of capital requests in an annual capital budgeting cycle provides advantages in the organization's attempt to deal with asymmetric information and incentive problems.     

企业家制度创新行为的演化博弈模型研究

企业家创新是推动现代企业发展的不竭动力。企业家创新策略的选择是一个动态学习调整的过程。本文运用演化博弈理论分析方法,借鉴生物进化过程中的“复制动态”的思想,对企业家创新策略的选择进行了演化稳定分析。研究结果表明,企业家行为最终演化成哪一种状态,取决于初始时选择某一种策略的企业家比例,而这种比例与选择这种策略带给企业家的博弈支付有关系。     

加强水利基本建设资金的控制与监督

加强水利基本建设资金的控制与监督,是切实做到管好用好水利建设资金的重要保证。文章运用典型事例,在建立、健全相关法规和控制制度,把好资金使用管理的各个环节,强化事中监督、过程控制,加大政府部门、新闻媒体和群众的监督力度等方面进行了探讨。     

Evidence of Large-Scale Social Interactions in Mammography in the United States

This paper examines the extent of social interactions in an individual’s decision to undergo mammography. Using Behavioral Risk Factors Surveillance System surveys from 1993 to 2016, the effect of other female screening behavior on an individual’s decision to have a routine breast cancer screening was measured by calculating the size of a so called “social multiplier” in mammography. A vector of social multipliers was estimated in the use of mammograms in the past 1–2 years by taking the ratio of group-level effects of exogenous explanatory variables to individual-level effects of the same variables. Peer groups were defined as same-aged women living in the same state. Three age groups of women were considered: 40–49, 50–74, and 75 and older. Several econometric approaches were used to analyze the effect of social interactions on mammography use, including ordinary least squares, fixed effects, and split-sample instrumental variable. For all women, evidence was found of social interactions associated with individual’s education, employment, and poor health. In addition, number of age-group-specific social multipliers was found. The strongest evidence of spillover in mammography was found for women ages 75 and older. Policy makers should be aware that, in the presence of a social multiplier, the value of any type of screening intervention is higher than the one that would be measured at the individual-level.

     

PPP模式的经济增长质量效应研究——来自微观层面的证据

文章依据财政部PPP项目库信息整理得到253个城市的非平衡面板数据并对PPP模式的经济增长质量效应展开实证分析。结果显示,我国PPP模式的运用能够有效促进地区经济增长质量提升,且该结论通过一系列稳健性检验后依然成立。机制分析显示,缓解地方政府短期财政压力和促进地区市场化水平的提升是PPP模式发挥经济增长质量效应的主要渠道。与此同时,政府干预较多会抑制PPP模式经济增长质量效应,而提高财政透明度则有利于发挥该效应。此外,异质性分析表明,市政工程以及教育、医疗等社会事业领域PPP模式的经济增长质量效应更强,并且当某地PPP模式以中短期合作或以政府付费和可行性缺口补助项目为主时,其对地区经济增长质量的提升作用更为明显。     

INTERRELATIONAL INCOME DISTRIBUTION IN BRAZIL

We extend Miyazawa and Masegi's original idea of disaggregated interrelational income multipliers with regard to three aspects. First, we examine the effect of system closure on the inter‐income‐group matrix. Second, we formally include inter‐household transactions, or the informal economy, into Miyazawa's calculus. Third, we extend the interrelational multiplier to environmental factors. These extensions are applied to the Brazilian economy of 1995. Multiplier matrices excluding and including the informal economy are presented and interpreted, and the redistributive process of transfer payments is traced through consecutive spending rounds for various scenarios. Finally, these redistributive processes are enumerated in terms of transport fuel and electricity use. Our results indicate that, because of the distribution of ownership of productive capital, the income formation process is heavily skewed toward the highest incomes. Whether the existing process and potential redistributive policies alleviate environmental pressure depends on the factors as well as the population segment appraised.     

中外高铁建设的投融资模式比较研究

随着交通强国战略的逐步实施,有关高铁投融资的重要性日益凸显。对中外高铁建设的主要投融资模式进行归类分析,并从融资特征、适用范围、优劣势等方面,就政府融资、市场化融资和PPP融资三种模式展开对比研究。结果表明,国外在高铁项目的市场化融资和PPP融资方面积累了较为丰富的经验,相比之下,中国大部分高铁项目是以政府融资为主;尽管日本、法国和瑞典等国在高铁投融资体制方面具有一定的差异,但合理的公共政策规划保证了项目的正常运营,其成功经验包括鼓励地方政府参与、积极引进民间资本、注重盘活存量资产和改进风险承担方式;为推动我国高铁项目投融资体制创新,应拓宽高铁项目筹资渠道,完善高铁融资支持政策,建立高铁融资保障体系。     

The saving–investment correlation and origins of productivity shocks

This paper shows how savings and investment can be positively correlated despite capital being perfectly mobile across countries. The saving-investment (SI) correlation depends on the origin and the volatility of macroeconomic (productivity) shocks, the persistence of these shocks and country-size. Simulating a two-country Real Business Cycle (RBC) model we show that as the variance of common shocks increases (relative to country-specific shocks), as the persistence of these shocks decreases and as country-size increases, the SI correlation increases. Using annual data from 1960 to 2002, productivity changes in 11 OECD countries are decomposed into common and country-specific shocks (from which foreign shocks are also constructed). The empirical findings show that the 11 countries share a statistically significant common component in productivity changes and common shocks generally account for at least half of the variations in the countries’ productivity changes. We then use the estimated variances of the shocks, in addition to each country's size, in the RBC model to compute the predicted SI correlation for each country, under the assumption that capital is perfectly mobile. The predicted SI correlation is then compared to the actual correlation to assess the relative degree of capital mobility in the 11 countries. The findings indicate that Norway, the Netherlands and the US have the highest degree of capital mobility whereas in Canada, Sweden, Belgium and Japan capital mobility has been the lowest.     

Determinants of bond market development in Asia

One of the major reasons behind the Asian financial crisis in 1997 was the excessive dependence of the Asian economies on commercial banks for domestic financing. The region failed to diversify its sources of corporate financing as it relied mainly on banks since its other types of financing, namely bond markets, were still underdeveloped and their sizes were quite small. On the other hand, the 2008 global financial crisis and the ongoing European debt crisis have led to constraints in acquiring local currency and foreign currency liquidity in the corporate sector in Asia as foreign banks withdrew investments from Asia. Furthermore, Asia needs large long term capital (US$ 750 billion per year for 2010–2020) for developing infrastructure connectivity within and across its economies. Local and regional capital can be channeled for long-term infrastructure projects and other productive investment through bond markets. Having a well-developed local currency bond markets can enhance the resilience of domestic financial sector to external shocks and it can facilitate better intermediation of savings into productive investments in Asia. To enhance corporate bond financing, it is important to examine factors that affect the effective development of bond markets in Asia. The study attempts to identify the determinants of bond market development in Asian economies through examining the relationship of bond issuance with selected key financial and economic factors. It also intends to provide policy recommendations for the further development of the Asian bond market. Major determinants for bond market development in Asia include the size of an economy, the stage of economic development, the openness of an economy, the exchange rate variability, the size of the banking system, and interest rate variability.     

北部湾经济区开发建设投融资问题刍议

广西北部湾经济区发展规划经国务院批准实施,标志着经济区建设正式上升为国家战略。从2006年启动开发建设以来的经验表明,确保大规模、可持续的资金注入将是北部湾经济区开发建设的关键。就目前广西自身的融资能力而言,无论从自有资金积累、金融机构融资潜力、资本市场融资,还是从近年来广西利用外资水平考察,都难以支撑经济区开发建设的资金需求。为此,应深化投融资体制改革,树立开放合作的投融资理念,为各类投资主体参与北部湾经济区开发建设提供良好的制度平台,最终实现多渠道、多形式筹集建设资金。     

The risk premium for evaluating public projects

Governments face a lower apparent cost of capital than privatefirms. However, the low cost of borrowing by governments doesnot reflect superior capabilities to choose or manage projects.Instead, it reflects the fact that governments have recourseto taxpayers, who de facto provide a fairly open-ended creditinsurance to the government. If taxpayers were remunerated forthe risk they assume in the case of tax-financed projects, thenex ante there would be no capital cost advantage to governmentfinance. The risk premium on government finance would, in principle,be no different from that of private investors. There is thusno justification on the basis of capital cost advantages forgovernment funding or guaranteeing the provision of privategoods or services. Privatization is, therefore, valuable, ifit improves business efficiency when evaluated at the risk-adjustedprivate cost of capital. No more need be demonstrated in a value-for-moneytest.     

国际长期资本流动对发展中经济体的冲击

本文描述了国际长期资本流动的特征,分析了它对发展中经济体的冲击行为,概括了国际长期资本流动对发展中经济体的三类冲击。上述三类冲击分别为流向不合理对短期资本市场的冲击、流速不合理对产业资本形成的冲击、流量不合理对产业资本效益的冲击。     

我国民营资本参与基础设施建设的立法构建

基础设施建设影响社会经济发展速度，结合我国目前基础设施建设的客观现实，指出我国民营资本参与基础设施建设势在必行。文章在借鉴国外经验的基础上，对我国民营资本的结合方式（即主体分析）、民营资本的进入方式（即行为分析）和民营资本的法律保障（即制度分析）三个方面进行理论探讨，进而为我国规范民营资本参与基础设施建设提供立法构建。     

突发事件对风险项目投资时机的影响研究

风险投资项目面临着很大的不确定性,包括市场性的和非市场性的,在以往的文献中大多都针对市场性的不确定性进行研究,文章研究了非市场性的不确定性对风险项目投资时机的影响。文章首先通过构造突发事件对风险项目影响的模型,并进行了推理,最后用数值分析的方法对其进行了模拟,结果表明：在同等情况下,突发事件对风险项目收入流影响越大,其投资的时机也就越晚;突发性事件发生的频率越大,其要求的投资时机也是越晚。