The macrodynamics of international migration as a sociocultural diffusion process. Part A: theory

"This study formulates a model of the macrodynamics of international migration using a differential equation to capture the push-pull forces that propel it. The model's architecture rests on the functioning of information feedback between settled friends and family at the destination and potential emigrants at the origin." The author tests the model using data on Greek emigration to the United States since 1820 and on total emigration from Cyprus since 1946.     

The macrodynamics of international migration as a socio-cultural diffusion process. Part B: applications

"This study formulates a model of the macrodynamics of international migration using a differential equation to capture the push-pull forces that propel it. The model's architecture rests on the functioning of information feedback between settled friends and family at the destination and potential emigrants at the origin....Two specific paradigms of diverse nature serve to demonstrate the model's tenets and pertinence, one being Greek emigration to the United States since 1820, and the other total out-migration from Cyprus since statehood (1946)."     

Emigration intentions in a post-conflict environment: evidence from Bosnia and Herzegovina

In this study we analyse intentions to emigrate from Bosnia and Herzegovina (BiH), focusing not only on typical individual and household determinants, but also on post-conflict specific influences. We investigate cross-sectional survey data collected over the period from 2002 to 2010. Our findings indicate that higher intentions for emigration are indeed linked to the typical individual and household conditions: the young, educated and low-family income respondents report the highest intentions to emigrate. In addition, the post-conflict environment characterised by economic and political instability, as well as by conflict and post-conflict related migration, increases these intentions further, both independently and in different combinations. Although determinants such as employment status, household income and perception of economic development are relevant, their effect is of second-order importance. This contradicts the conventional thinking that economic factors are the main driving forces of emigration intentions. We provide evidence that the conflict and post-conflict related migration experiences, and the political situation, may surpass individual and societal economic influences in importance.     

Emigration intentions of Roma: evidence from Central and South-East Europe

The Roma constitute the largest, poorest and youngest ethnic minority group in Europe. Over the last few years, they have attracted unprecedented attention with the fear of massive waves of emigrants to Western European countries. Using unique comparative data from 12 Central and South-East European countries, we study the pattern and determinants of Roma emigration intentions. We find that plans to go abroad are more frequent among Roma compared to non-Roma, but the ethnic gap in emigration intentions is not explained by the more disadvantaged characteristics of Roma compared to non-Roma. Among the Roma population, potential emigrants are more educated and wealthier on average. Finally, ethnic discrimination is a very influential factor that explains the intentions to emigrate within the Roma population.     

A Comparison of Household Recycling Behaviors in Norway and the United States

This paper investigates empirically the determinants of household recycling in Norway and compares the results with a similar, recently published, study of households in the United States. The comparison focuses on the relative importance of user fees on waste disposal, community recycling programs, and socioeconomic factors. Both data sources are nationwide, material-specific, and at the household level. One major finding is that a disposal fee provides a significant economic incentive to Norwegian households, whereas its effectiveness in the United States is still up for debate. Providing households with convenient recycling options, such as curbside and drop-off recycling, appears generally effective, but less so in Norway than in the United States. Socioeconomic characteristics are less important predictors of behavior in Norway than in the United States. Qualifications on the comparison are provided throughout and two extensions for future research are suggested at the end.     

Emigration and wages in source countries: Evidence from Mexico

This paper examines empirically the effect of Mexican emigration to the United States on wages in Mexico using data from the Mexican and US censuses from 1970 to 2000. The main result in the paper is that emigration has a strong and positive effect on Mexican wages. There is also evidence for increasing wage inequality in Mexico due to emigration. Simple welfare calculations based on a labor demand–supply framework suggest that the aggregate welfare loss to Mexico due to emigration is small. However, there is a significant distributional impact between labor and other factors.     

A new look at the benefits of diversification: lessons from Central America

Recent trends of export diversification in Central America may lower foreign exchange earnings instability there. Four countries–Costa Rica, El Salvador, Honduras, and Guatemala–are analysed across a twenty-year period. The paper uses United Nations Commodity Trade Statistics to explain why Costa Rica and Honduras have enjoyed greater earnings stability in recent years, despite the fact that Honduras has not greatly diversified its export products and markets. Despite the growth of new agricultural and manufacturing goods, traditional primary products still dominate the countries' export portfolios. Specific products within each of the four broad product category groups contribute to the varied country outcomes. Summary statistics from the United Nations (panel) data suggest newer agricultural exports have not stabilized Guatemalan and Salvadoran export earnings, while Honduras has enjoyed relatively stable banana export revenues and Costa Rica has benefited from the smooth flow of microelectronic products. Further panel data regression analysis shows country size and intangible country effects also explain parts of the detrended earnings deviation in addition to product base and level of diversification.     

Emigrants’ missing votes

What are the causal effects of emigration on election outcomes in the country of origin? Large emigration of high-skilled emigrants can lead to changes in the distribution of political preferences, which affect voting outcomes. Using administrative migration and voting data, we show that emigration from Poland following its accession to the European Union in 2004 caused an increase in vote shares for right-wing parties, while decreasing the vote share for left-wing parties due to emigrants’ missing left-leaning votes. To account for endogenous migration patterns, we construct an innovative instrument that measures the distance to the closest open EU border. Our results highlight that emigration enhances stayers’ trust in right-wing governments and increases stayers’ voting for parties with pro-European positions. Exploiting a change in voting rules over time allows to disentangle different mechanisms. These results have important implications for the design of voting policies.     

Testing the ‘brain gain’ hypothesis: Micro evidence from Cape Verde

Does emigration really drain human capital accumulation in origin countries? This paper explores a unique household survey designed and conducted to answer this research question. We analyze the case of Cape Verde, a country with allegedly the highest ‘brain drain’ in Africa, despite a marked record of income and human capital growth in recent decades. We propose the first explicit test of ‘brain drain’ arguments, according to which the prospects of own future migration can positively impact educational attainment. Our most conservative estimates using individual specific variation in economic conditions at the destination indicate that a 10 pp increase in the probability of own future migration improves the probability of completing intermediate secondary schooling by nearly 4 pp for individuals who do not migrate before age 16. These findings are robust to the choice of instruments and econometric specification. Counterfactual simulations point to significant human capital gains from lowering migration barriers.     

A note on beneficial emigration

Dos Santos and Postel-Vinay [J. Popul. Econ. 16 (2003) 161] argues that emigration helps promote the knowledge stock of the source country and is always beneficial. If individual heterogeneity of the knowledge stock is taken into account, I find the Dos Santos and Postel-Vinay modified model provides a classical brain drain analysis. Emigration is good to the source country only when a sufficient number of emigrants return.     

试析《中美洲自由贸易协定》多角化影响

历经9年的艰苦谈判之后,美国与中美洲五国及多米尼加签署了《中美洲自由贸易协定》(CAFTA-DR).该协定的签署对于中美洲国家而言意义重大,借助该协定的实施,中美洲国家的贸易与直接投资将会得到大幅度的增长,地区经济将会快速发展.同时,CAFTA-DR的签订,改变了中美洲原先的次区域一体化优先路线,对中美洲未来的区域一体化进程将会产生深远的影响.     

THE STANDARD OF LIVING IN THE UNITED STATES

A common approach to the evaluation of the standard of living is based on a function of real income. In the United States this often takes the form of CPI-deflated mean household income. Material well-being is more appropriately evaluated using a consumption-based index. Using data from the Consumer Expenditure Surveys we find that real mean income provides an inaccurate representation of the level and trend of the standard of living relative to real per equivalent total expenditure in the postwar United States. The differences between real income and real total expenditure per household equivalent member are found at all levels of aggregation.     

The Choice of the Working Secto in Transition: Income and non-income determinants of sector participation in Kazakhstan

This study compares the individual, household and location characteristics of private employees, the self-employed, the unemployed and the economically inactive in Kazakhstan making use of a 1996 World Bank Living Standards Measurement Survey. The purpose is to understand whether the process of transition has determined a selection of workers exiting the state sector and entering the three relatively new 'pools' of private employees, self-employed and unemployed. An 'occupational choice' model is used to explore the determinants of sector participation. It is found that income opportunities are similar between the private and self-employment sectors, that the private sector is not necessarily the workers' first choice and that non-income determinants including local economic and labour market conditions and household related factors explain better than income the choice of the working sector. Self-employment seems to be a key sector in understanding the mechanisms of sector choice and the reallocation of labour. Unemployment appears as a choice of last resort and made by truly 'rationed' individuals.     

Individual Preferences for Trade Partners in Taiwan

This article investigates economic factors and non‐economic factors of individual attitudes toward free‐trade agreements with different countries. Based on the Stolper–Samuelson theorem, highly skilled workers in Taiwan should be more supportive of free trade with China and less supportive of free trade with the United States than should unskilled workers in Taiwan. Using survey data from Taiwan, we find that highly educated people in Taiwan are more supportive of free trade with both the United States and China, and the effects of education are much stronger with respect to free trade with China. We also find that individual risk attitudes, national identity, and ethnicity play important roles in explaining trade preferences.     

Is perceived financial inadequacy persistent?

In an attempt to understand the determinants of financial inadequacy, this paper employs the ability of households to make ends meet as a measure of their perceived financial inadequacy. Using household‐level data from the European Community Household Panel covering eight countries over the period from 1994 to 2001, this study applies a dynamic probit model that incorporates both state dependency and individual fixed effects. Exploiting a latterly enhanced bias‐corrected fixed‐effects probit model, I address the persistent nature of subjective financial inadequacy by directly estimating fixed effects while correcting for incidental parameters and avoiding the initial conditions problem of dynamic models. The results reveal that employing time‐invariant individual effects to model subjective monetary perception is essential. However, by controlling for household heterogeneity, income, indebtedness, and health status, I find that in addition to the major differences across European households, country‐specific factors can have adverse effects on the persistent nature of perceived financial inadequacy.     

Can Labor Emigration Affect the Education of Girls? Evidence from Tajikistan

This study examines how large-scale, predominantly male emigration affects the education of girls staying in Tajikistan, the poorest post-Soviet state and one of the most remittance-dependent economies in the world. Using data from a three-wave household panel survey conducted in 2007, 2009, and 2011, this study finds that the net effect of migration on girls’ schooling turns from positive to negative with girls’ age. These results lend support to various conceptual channels through which the emigration of household members may affect girls’ education, including the relaxation of budget constraints, a change of the household head, and an increase in household work. At the practical level, the results imply that migration can be detrimental to women’s empowerment and cast doubt on whether emigration is an appropriate long-term development strategy for Tajikistan.     

Aggregate health care expenditure in the United States: evidence from cointegration tests

Unlike recent studies that are based on international cross-sectional series, this paper attempts to quantify the role of the determinants of aggregate health care expenditure per capita, using time-series data for the period of 1960–87 for the United States. The paper applies the relatively new procedures of unit root testing, cointegration and error-correction modelling. The evidence supports cointegration. Although, the results indicate that per capita income, age of the population, number of practising physicians, and public financing of health care are important determinants, the age structure of the population and number of practising physicians emerge as the major determinants of aggregate health care expenditure in the United States.     

Learning and the time interdependence of Costa Rican exports

Exports may enhance learning through production-induced learning by doing, learning to export by doing, and flows of information from customers. We provide evidence on the learning effects of export destination for Costa Rica for 1955 through 1980. We examine Granger-causality results and export trends to determine relationships between exports to the Central American Common Market (CACM), the rest of the South, and the North. Increasing exports to the CACM appear to promote learning in machinery, leather, and intermediate manufactures. We also find that the CACM redirects some exports away from Northern markets, probably with damaging consequences.     

The changing skill of new immigrants to the United States: recent trends and their determinants

"The objective of this paper is to describe and understand the determinants of changes in the number and quality of new legal immigrants to the United States over the last 25 years. Our main interest is in understanding the behavioral response of potential immigrants to changes in the U.S. immigration law regime (as well as in the origin-country determinants of demand for immigration to the United States) and how these affect and have affected the skill composition of immigrants.... [The authors] assembled a new data set based on annual INS records of all new, legal immigrants over the period 1972 through 1995.... Inspection of our new data indicates that since the mid 1980s the average skill of new, U.S. legal immigrants has been rising relative to that of the U.S. population. An econometric analysis of a panel of country-specific measures of the skill of immigrants based on these data over the period 1972-1992 indicates that these changes are due in part to changes in immigration law and to the overall rise in the real purchasing power of countries outside the United States."     

通货膨胀冲击的财产再分配效应——基于中美两国的比较研究

本文利用微观调查数据研究了中美两国通胀冲击的财产再分配效应。本文的定量研究结果表明,通胀冲击将侵蚀中国家庭部门的财产,并进一步恶化家庭间的财产分布;而美国的情况却截然相反。从通胀再分配效应的视角出发,本文建议我国在制定货币政策时应当更加重视民生目标,逐步建立起多种形式的通胀补贴制度,以增强社会底层的通胀承受能力。