Models of labour services and estimates of total factor productivity

This article examines the manner in which labour services are modelled in the aggregate production function, concentrating on the relationship between numbers employed and average hours worked. It argues that numbers employed and hours worked are not perfect substitutes and that conventional estimates of total factor productivity which, by using total hours worked as the measure of labour services, assume they are perfect substitutes, will be biased when there are marked changes in average hours worked. The relevance of the theoretical argument is illustrated using data for the United States and the United Kingdom.     

A synthetic cohort analysis of female labour supply: the case of Thailand

This study analyzes trends and patterns in employment, hours worked, and women’s wages for Thai women, and relations among these variables in models of female labour supply. Labour supply behaviour of Thai women is investigated with synthetic cohort data defined by age, year of birth, and level of educational attainment, constructed from annual labour force surveys from 1985 to 2004. According to pseudo-panel estimates, wage increases lead to a reduction in hours worked, but also an increase in the employment/population ratio, with elasticity estimates that are robust across a variety of specifications. Estimates based on disaggregation by marital status show that marriage provides protection against wage decreases, allowing married women greater choice between hours of work and other household activities. Alternative disaggregations find that younger cohorts of women and those with the highest education show the greatest (positive) response of the employment rate to wage changes, leading to a future Thai labour force with more women and higher educational attainment.     

‘Marginal employment’ and the demand for heterogeneous labour – elasticity estimates from a multi-factor labour demand model for Germany

We develop a structural multi-factor labour demand model which distinguishes between eight labour categories including marginal employment, i.e. low-paying jobs with only a few working hours and partially exempted from employee's social security contributions. Using a new panel data set for Germany, the model is estimated both for the number of workers and total working hours. For unskilled and skilled workers in full-time employment, we find labour demand elasticities similar to previous estimates. Our new estimates of own-wage elasticities for marginal employment range between??0.13 (number of male workers in West Germany) to??1 (working hours for women).     

Testing for fixity of the labour input under non competitive behaviour in Italian and French manufacturing

The flexibility in labour markets and the degree of competition in output markets are investigated in the context of the Italian and French manufacturing sectors. Conventional wisdom seems to point out that in countries with institutional constraints in the labour market it may not be easier to optimize over labour than over capital. We test whether labour is fixed starting with a measure of labour as total hours worked. As the hypothesis cannot be rejected, we do not proceed to test a further hypothesis, based on the measurement of labour as number of workers. We use a variable cost model supplemented with a markup pricing rule to allow for non competitive market structure. From the results it emerges that the output markets are non competitive. We derive analytically and provide a measurement of both short-run and intermediate-run markups. We also derive a measure of the long-run cost-minimizing level of labour: the ratio of optimal to actual level gives the degree of under- or over-utilization of labour.     

Estimates of a labour supply function using alternative measures of hours of work

Depending on data source, estimates of hours of work give widely different results both as to level and change. In this paper three alternative measures of hours worked are used to estimate a simple labour supply function to investigate if the estimated wage rate and income effects are data dependent as well. The measures used include those from time-use surveys and those from regular surveys. The latter are based on the responses to a question about normal weekly hours of market work. The results suggest that the estimates of the wage rate effects become much smaller when measures of normal hours are used compared to data collected for a well-defined time period close to the date of interview, such as time-use data. The income effects appear less sensitive to the choice of data.     

Remittances and labour allocation decisions at communities of origin: the case of rural Mexico

From a theoretical perspective, the effect that remittances have on the labour decisions of those that receive them is ambiguous; the empirical evidence reported in the literature is mixed and shows, unsurprisingly, that the net effect of remittances on labour supply is context-dependent. We contribute to this literature by using a detailed data set for rural Mexico that allows us to understand how remittances reshape rural livelihoods by modifying labour allocation decisions. Following previous evidence, we analyse female and male responses separately. Our results show that the income effect of remittances dominates male labour allocation decisions: the probability of participating in the labour market and the total number of hours worked decrease with remittances. We find no effect for female labour allocation decisions. The effects are not uniform across the different productive activities and remittances seem to be contributing to a trend in which Mexican rural inhabitants increasingly move away from agriculture- or nature-based activities. This reinforces the direct effect that emigration has in terms of a reduction in total supply of local labour.     

The impact of Sunday shopping on employment and hours of work in the retail industry: Evidence from Canada

Between 1980 and 1998 every Canadian province passed legislation that in some way relaxed restrictions on Sunday shopping. This study exploits the variation in deregulation dates between provinces to identify how retail employers adjust employment and hours of work when deciding to open on Sundays. A major complication of this analysis is to first determine for which provinces the deregulation dates are useful indicators of increases in Sunday store openings. This paper uses a unique trading-day regression approach to identify these provinces and then uses aggregate data from the selected provinces to estimate a simple dynamic labour demand model that allows employment and hours to be imperfect substitutes in production. The results suggest that retailers’ needs for Sunday labour were disproportionately satisfied through increases in employment levels. Comparison of the estimates at three levels of the retail industry suggests that the employment and hours gains were larger among general merchandise stores than among more specialized retail establishments and relatively modest at the aggregate retail industry level. In addition, despite evidence of an immediate shortfall in the employment level below the long-run optimal level, the results suggest that firms were unable to compensate by temporarily increasing the hours of their existing employees.     

Expanding New York State's Earned Income Tax Credit Programme: the effect on work,income and poverty

Given its favourable employment incentives and ability to target the working poor, the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) has become the primary antipoverty programme at both the federal and state levels. However, when evaluating the effect of EITC programmes on income and poverty, governments generally calculate the effect using simple accounting, where the value of the state or federal EITC benefit is added to a person's income. These calculations omit the behavioural incentives created by the existence of these programmes, the corresponding effect on labour supply and hours worked, and therefore the actual effect on income and poverty. This article simulates the full effect of an expansion of the New York State EITC benefit on employment, hours worked, income, poverty and programme expenditures. These results are then compared to those omitting labour supply effects. Relative to estimates excluding labour supply effects, the preferred behavioural results show that an expansion of the New York State EITC increases employment by an additional 14?244 persons, labour earnings by an additional $95.8 million, family income by an additional $84.5 million, decreases poverty by an additional 56?576 persons and increases costs to the State by $29.7 million.     

Effects of health insurance on labour supply: evidence from the health care fund for the poor in Vietnam

The expansion of health insurance in emerging countries raises concerns about the unintended negative effects of health insurance on labour supply. This article examines the labour supply effects of the Health Care Fund for the Poor (HCFP) in Vietnam in terms of the number of work hours per month and labour force participation (the probability of employment). Employing various matching methods combined with a Difference-in-Differences approach on the Vietnam Household Living Standard Surveys 2002–2006, we show that the HCFP, which aims to provide poor people and disadvantaged minority groups with free health insurance, has a negative effect on labour supply. This is manifested in both the average number of hours worked per month and the probability of employment, suggesting the income effect of the HCFP. Interestingly, the effects are mainly driven by the non-poor recipients living in rural areas, raising the question of the targeting strategy of the programme.     

Employment security and the demand for labour in Europe

This paper analyses the impact of employment security on labour demand. The approach taken is to estimate a dynamic labour demand function that allows for the effect of changes in a measure of employment security derived from surveys of employers. The estimation uses panel data on employment (both in terms of the total number of employees and total hours worked) for seven European countries for the period 1981–1994. The results suggest that employment security can have significant effects in slowing down the dynamic adjustment of labour demand. The paper also finds some (less robust) evidence that employment security can increase the long run level of labour demand in terms of total hours, but not the number of persons employed.     

Registered nurses: the impact of wages on labour force participation and hours worked – are wages an effective mechanism for addressing RN shortages with evidence from 1960 to 2008?

Registered nurses (RNs) are critical producers and coordinators of patient care in acute and non-acute settings (Needleman et al. 2011). The Affordable Care Act coupled with an ageing population, are increasing demand for health care and, in turn, RNs. Numbering 3 million, RNs comprise the largest professional occupation in health care. Therefore, the labour force participation and hours worked are of keen interest to stakeholders and policymakers. Rising demand may exacerbate nursing shortages and have important effects on costs. We estimate the impact of wages on participation and hours worked as a possible policy tool to increase nursing supply. In 2008, the RN wage had a positive and significant effect on participation and a small positive but only marginally significant effect on hours worked given participation. The latter elasticity for married females (single females) was 0.11 (0.33). Therefore, the elasticity of hours worked with respect to the nurse wage is and unlikely to have an important effect on the participation rates or hours worked of currently trained female RNs. Consequently, wage increases are unlikely to be an effective policy to increase the labour supply among the currently licensed RNs and will not relieve any short-term nursing shortage.     

The effect of universal child benefits on labour supply

Using a difference‐in‐differences estimator, I find the Canadian Universal Child Care Benefit has significant negative income effects on the labour supply of married individuals. The likelihood of lower‐educated mothers to participate in the labour force is reduced 3.2 percentage points when receiving the benefit. Median hours worked per week among lower‐educated mothers is reduced by 1.9 hours. The effects on higher‐educated mothers are substantial, with median hours worked among higher‐educated mothers reduced by nearly one hour per week. For men, the evidence suggests small but significant income effects on labour supply, consistent with the literature on labour supply elasticities.     

The Effects of Health, Wealth, and Wages on Labour Supply and Retirement Behaviour

This paper estimates a life cycle model of labour supply, retirement, and savings behaviour in which future health status and wages are uncertain. Individuals face a fixed cost of work and cannot borrow against future labour, pension, or Social Security income. The method of simulated moments is used to match the life cycle profiles of labour force participation, hours worked, and assets that are estimated from the data to those that are generated by the model. The model establishes that the tax structure of the Social Security system and pensions are key determinants of the high observed job exit rates at ages 62 and 65. Removing the tax wedge embedded in the Social Security earnings test for individuals aged 65 and older would delay job exit by almost one year. By contrast, Social Security benefit levels, health, and borrowing constraints are less important determinants of job exit at older ages. For example, reducing Social Security benefits by 20% would cause workers to delay exit from the labour force by only three months.     

Analysing the effects of labour standards on US export performance. A time series approach with structural change

The empirical effects of different measures of labour standards on the export performance of the United States are analysed using annual data for the period 1950–1998, applying a time series approach based on the structural change literature. Hence, a model with endogenous breaks is estimated following the methodology proposed by Bai and Perron (Econometrica, 66, 47–78, 1998). The results show that the labour standards, represented by the number of hours worked, the rate of occupational injuries and the unionization rate, are all very important to explain the behaviour of exports for the United States. In particular, it is found that low labour standards may both improve or lead to a deterioration in export performance.     

WAGES,HOURS OF WORK AND JOB SATISFACTION OF RETIREMENT‐AGE WORKERS*

I analyse, theoretically and empirically, the effects of pension benefits, family conditions and the personal characteristics of older individuals on their labour supply, wages, hours worked and job satisfaction, in the framework of the Nash bargaining condition whereby an older worker and a firm bargain over employment conditions such as wages, hours of work and job investment. It is stressed that as workers become older they tend to give greater priority to the number of hours worked, work environment and type of job than to wages, and try to improve these through job investment, even at the cost of lower wages.     

Origins and developments of Irving Fisher's compensated dollar plan

This paper compares two articles by Lionel Robbins () and by Dennis H. Robertson () on the topic of labour supply. Robertson's article is shown to anticipate the main results of Robbins's seminal article. Yet, Robertson covers a number of other issues (e.g. constraints on hours worked and the impact of non-pecuniary factors) that are neglected by Robbins. Robertson's article is used to illustrate important gaps and omissions in the economics literature on labour supply that have occurred through the acceptance of some of the arguments contained in Robbins's article.     

Robotization and labour dislocation in the manufacturing sectors of OECD countries: a panel VAR approach

Robots are the most important innovation which has affected the production process in the last three decades. Thanks to the latest advances in technology, they have been able to perform an ever-increasing number of tasks, eventually replacing human work within the whole production process. However, because of the scarcity of suitable data, the extent of this potentially disrupting process is not fully assessed. This paper makes up for the lack of empirical evidence on the effect of robotization on labour dislocation using data collected by the International Federation of Robotics (IFR) on the number of robots installed in the different manufacturing industries of 16 OECD countries over the period 2011–2016. We show that at the industry level a 1% growth in the number of robots reduces the growth rate of worked hours by 0.16, as well as the selling prices and the real values of the compensations of employees. Moreover, we show that a given sector is more likely to be robotized when it is expanding both in terms of relative prices and employee compensations. We conclude that, at least in the selected countries, the introduction of robots plays a key role in slowing down human labour and compensation growth.     

Collective Labour Supply: Heterogeneity and Non-Participation

We present identification and estimation results for the "collective" model of labour supply in which there are discrete choices, censoring of hours, and non-participation in employment. We derive the collective restrictions on labour supply functions and contrast them with restrictions implied by the usual "unitary" framework. Using the large changes in the wage structure between men and women in the U.K. over the last two decades, we estimate a collective labour supply model for married couples without children. The estimates of the sharing rule show that male wages and employment have a strong influence on bargaining power within couples.     

Labour Utilization and Wage Inflation in Australia: An Empirical Examination*

This paper tests the hypothesis that the level of labour utilization within the firm should be substituted into the Phillips Curve in place of traditional measures of excess demand. Gregory and Smith (1983) proposed overtime hours as a proxy for labour utilization within the firm. For various reasons we prefer the deviation from trend in hours worked. The results support the underlying hypothesis, and add strength to the view that to understand the process of wage inflation at the macro level we must examine the utilization of labour at the micro level of the firm.     

The Labour Input Response to Permanent Changes in Output: An Errors-in-Variables Analysis Based on Panel Data

Using panel data for Norwegian manufacturing, we revisit 'the increasing returns to scale puzzle' for labour inputs. We consider the response of the input of white-collar workers, blue-collar workers, and blue-collar worker hours to permanent changes in output. Permanent and temporary changes in output are treated as latent variables. We compare OLS, IV, and GMM estimates of the response elasticities and conclude that the distinction between permanent and temporary changes is essential. Our GMM estimates suggest that the 'increasing returns to scale puzzle' remains for all measures of the labour input also when we consider their response to permanent changes in output. For materials, the output response indicates approximately constant returns to scale. This suggests non-homotheticity of the production technology.
JEL classification : C 23; J 23