Eine Invarianzeigenschaft für Startverteilungen einer Klasse stochastischer Prozesse

Summary This paper discusses some concepts of mixing for stochastic processes with discrete time. The idea of mixing, which is defined with respect to a starting distribution , means that the tranjectories of the process get out of any set with -measure zero with probability one. Such -mixing processes satisfy an invariance property; an asymptotic event has probability zero under any starting distribution, provided that it has probability zero under the starting distribution . Concerring stationary Markov chains these results imply a weak zero-one-law the relation of which with well-known stronger versions especially for aperiodic Harris chains and with the notions of weak ergodicity and a.s. triviality is studied.     

Eine Verallgemeinerung des „Gesetzes seltener Ereignisse”

Zusammenfassung Beim bekannten Gesetz seltener Ereignisse betrachtet mane große Zahl unabhängiger Ereignisse, die jeweils mit der gleichen kleinen Wahrscheinlichkeit eintreten können. Unter geeigneten Annahmen ist die Zahl der eingetretenen Ereignisse näherungsweise poissonverteilt. [Vgl. z.B. Morgenstern, p. 39, 1968;Waerden, p. 47, 1957].Ein oft angegebenes Beispiel hierfür ist die Häufigkeitsverteilung von Unfällen, die jeweils nur eine Person oder ein Fahrzeug betreffen. In dieser Arbeit gehen wir von Unfällen mit zwei Beteiligten aus. Auf diese Weise erhält man eine Verallgemeinerung des Gesetzes seltener Ereignisse auf gewisse abhängige Ereignisse.Außerdem wird ein neuer Beweis für die allgemeine Formel der Momente der Poissonverteilung gegeben.Damit ist ein Grenzwertsatz für eine spezielle Folge schwach abhängiger Zufallsgrößen bewiesen.

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Summary The well-known law of rare events deals with a large number of independent events, each of which can occur with the same probability. Under suitable assumptions the number of events which occur has approximately a Poisson distribution. [CompareMorgenstern, p. 39, 1968;Waerden, p. 47, 1957].An example which is often used for illustration is the frequency distribution of accidents, in which only one car or one person is involved. In this paper we refer to accidents in which two parties are involved. This leads to a generalization of the law of rare events where cases of dependent events are concerned.In addition a new proof of the general formula as to the moments of Poisson distribution is given.This proves a limit theorem of weakly dependent random variables of a certain sequence.

     

A numerical representation of semiorders on a countable set

Let be a semiorder on a countable setX and letx⁰ y if and only if either there existsx withxxy or there existsx withxxy. Then ⁰ is a preference relation with transitive indifference, which can be represented by a utility functionf of the usual sort. It is well known that is represented by a pair of real-valued functionsu, v, in the sense thatxy if and only ifu(x)>v(y). We prove that there exists a pair of functionsu, v, representing , such thatu+v is the utility function which represents in the usual sense. Moreover it is easily seen that, for such a pair of functionsu, v, we havex⁰ y if and only if eitheru(x)>u(y) or (u(x)=u(y) andv(x)>v(y)).

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Sommario Consideriamo unsemiordine su un insiemeX numerabile e poniamox⁰ y se e solo se esistex tale chexxy, oppure esistex tale chexxy. In questo caso ⁰ è unordine debole, che può essere rappresentato da una funzione di utilitàf nel senso usuale. D'altra parte è rappresentato da una coppia di funzioniu, v, nel senso chexy se e solo seu(x)>v(y). In questo lavoro si prova che ammette una rappresentazioneu, v tale chex⁰ y se e solo seu(x)+v(x)>u(y)+v(y). Si dimostra altresì che, con riguardo ad una siffatta rappresentazioneu, v di , riescex⁰ y se e solo seu(x)>u(y) oppure (u(x)=u(y) ed anchev(x)>v(y)).

     

Optimality of block designs with variable block sizes and random block effects

We consider the simple block model with random block effects, the block effects having variance _b ² =²;, with ² the variance of the errors. It is assumed that the experimenter can vary the sizes of the blocks. The universal optimality of certain designs for all over all designs with the same number of blocks and the same number of observations is shown. It is of interest to note that if Balanced Incomplete Block Designs compete, then they perform equally well for =0 and for =, i.e. in the one way classification model and in the simple block model with fixed block effects, but they perform worse for every (0, ).The result is, however, theoretical in nature. It treats a situation which is not very likely to happen in practice. The interest lies in the fact that it provides a counterexample to a conjecture on optimality of designs in mixed models.     

Das maximale signifikanzniveau des Tests: “LehneH o ab,wennk untern gegebenen tests zur ablehnung führen”

Summary On one sample space there aren tests with critical regionsK ₁ and levels of significance _i ,i=1, ...,n (resp.n eventsK _i in a probability space with probabilities not greater than _i ,i=1, ...,n). In this paper we calculate the smallest upper bound of the level of significance of the test reject the hypothesis, if at leastk among the,n tests do so (resp. of the probability of the event at leastk among then events are realized). By the way, we will show, that this smallest upper bound does not change, if we replace at leastk by exactlyk.     

On functionals of order statistics

Summary Let g_n be real functions,U _ni, 1in, the ordered sample ofn independentU(0,1) distributed random variables, andc _ni(), 1in, 01 be (known) real numbers,n=1, 2, ... The random quantity , 01, is studied. Based on a method proposed byShorack [1972] the main result is the weak convergence of to Gaussian processes, where , 01. The convergence is with respect to theSkorokhod [1956]-topologiesM ₂,M ₁ onD (I) and the -topology onC(I), depending on the conditions imposed on thec _ni().     

“Good Cause Beliefs” in an “At-Will World”? A Focused Investigation of Psychological Versus Legal Contracts

This study assesses the psychological contracts of a group of at-will employees and compares their relevant psychological contract beliefs with the terms of the controlling legal employment contract. In addition, we test specific hypotheses regarding the relationship between employers formal job security policy (employment at-will vs. good cause protection, and employee personal characteristics; equity sensitivity, organizational tenure) to 2 focal psychological contract beliefs (the employers obligation to have a good reason to discharge the employee, and the employees reciprocal obligation to have a good reason to leave his/her employer). These issues are investigated using survey data sampled from 15 diverse U.S. organizations, and independently collected information regarding organizations job security policies. The results provide evidence of a widely shared psychological contract belief that, despite explicit at-will policies, U.S. employers are highly obligated to have a good reason to discharge employees. Further, personal characteristics are more strongly related to the focal psychological contract beliefs than employer job security policies. The theoretical contribution of the study and its practical implications are discussed.     

Effective participative decision making: A joint responsibility for success

Much of the current research on participative decision making focuses on the increasing need for broad-based decision-making systems, on the different outcomes associated with different forms of participation, or on the problems associated with poorly managed participative decision-making systems. This article considers the responsibilities of employees who participate in organizational decision making and the responsibilities of employers who expect to share decision-making tasks. A Bill of Responsibilities for Employees and a Bill of Responsibilities for Employers are presented. Pitfalls associated with neglecting these responsibilities are discussed.     

State competition in higher education: A race to the top,or a race to the bottom?

How does competition affect higher education? This paper explores this question for public and private universities. Theory indicates that competition can push higher education policy in one of two different directions. On the one hand, competition may increase spending. For states, this would occur if states treat higher education as developmental; for private universities this would occur if they view spending as a means to attract students and prestige. On the other hand, competition may decrease spending if states treat higher education spending as redistributive, and competition may decrease spending by private schools if lower spending enhances their ability to attract students with low tuition. To determine which of these perspectives is most valid, we examine higher education policy choices in the 1980s and 1990s. We find that states appear to act as if higher education funding is redistributive while private schools appear to compete more on the basis of tuition than spending. These results demonstrate the important effects competition and governance structure have on higher education.Received: August 2001, Accepted: May 2002, JEL Classification: I2, I22, H72, I3     

A curtailed test for the shape parameter of the Weibull distribution

Summary A procedure is proposed in this paper for testing the shape parameter, of the Weibull distribution. The test statistic which is based on the extremal quotient, possesses a monotone property which makes it possible for rejection earlier than the last planned observation of the null hypothesis,H ₀: =₀ when the alternative hypothesis isH _a: <₀ and early acceptance ofH ₀ whenH _a: >₀. The test being scale-free, does not require the scale parameter to be known.     

Über eine Variante der empirischen Verteilungsfunktion

Summary If ₁, ₂,..., _n and ₁, ₂,..., _–1 are two ordered samples from a population with continuous distribution functionF(x), then the points ( _r ,r/n),r=1, 2,..., n–1 provide a better approximation ofF(x) than the points ( _r ,r/n),r=1, 2,..., n, in the following sense:A maximal upper deviation and a maximal lower deviation of more theny have — contrary to the points ( _r ,r/n) — equal probability for anyy0, if we deal with the points ( _r ,r/n). This probability is at least for ally in the interval , 1 less than the probability for a maximal upper deviation of more thany in the case of the points ( _r ,r/n). This is shown by a comparison of the Smirnow-Birnbaum-Tingey — formula with an analogous formula for the maximal one-sided deviations of the points( _r ,r/n).     

Some brief notes on the “unfinished business” of qualitative inquiry

The paper argues that there are a variety of implicit issues in qualitative inquiry that need to be addressed if the area is to develop in some normal science sense. This unfinished business is concerned with a deeper investigation of basic terms that are now simply taken for granted, such as theme and pattern. It also includes the need to develop rules which will assist in making and justifying how qualitative interpretations are made from the implicit processes of inference. Specific suggestions are made for accomplishing these issues.     

Employee-initiated defamation lawsuits: Organizational responses and dilemmas

The fast-growing category of defamation lawsuits in the United States involves actions by employees against their employers. Over the last decade, the courts have increasingly ruled in favor of the employee plaintiffs, thus creating an employee's right to reputation. This article identifies a variety of responses undertaken by organizations to reduce their legal liability and lessen the likelihood of employee defamation lawsuits. We argue that while organizational actions to reduce their legal liability may appear rational, such responses may also be creating situations in which employers, employees, and the public may be the unintended victims of a law without justice. The article concludes with a discussion of balancing the freedom necessary for managers to communicate about employees and the fairness of that communication.     

Maximal asymptotic power and efficiency of two-sample tests based on generalized U-Statistics

In this article a systematic study is given of the asymptotic behavior of two-sample tests based on U-Statistics with arbitrary antisymmetric kernels . Besides the investigation under the hypothesis and under fixed alternatives we determine the local power as a function of as well as its maximizing value _opt. Moreover formulas for the asymptotic relative efficiency ARE(₂,₁) of the ₂-test with respect to the ₁-test are derived. It turns out that _opt also yields the most efficient test in the sense that ARE(_opt,)1 for all (admissible) kernels .     

Characterizations of distributions via linearity of regression of generalized order statistics

Let X (r, n, m, k), 1 r n, denote generalized order statistics based on an absolutely continuous distribution function F. We characterize all distribution functions F for which the following linearity of regression holds E(X(r+l,n,m,k) | X(r,n,m,k))=aX(r,n,m,k)+b.We show that only exponential, Pareto and power distributions satisfy this equation. Using this result one can obtain characterizations of exponential, Pareto and power distributions in terms of sequential order statistics, Pfeifers records and progressive type II censored order statistics. Received July 2001/Revised August 2002     

Vergleich des verallgemeinerten nichtzentralent-Tests mit dem Binomialtest

Zusammenfassung Es sei {F _,(x); –<<, >0} mitF _,(x)=F((x–)/)–F(x) eine standardisierte Verteilungsfunktion — die Familie der zulässigen Verteilungsfunktionen. Der (früher eingeführte) verallgemeinerte nichtzentralet-Test für die Hypothese {PP ₀} mitP:=F _,(x ₀) gegen die Alternative {P>P ₀} zum Niveau wird mit dem entsprechenden nichtparametrischen Test (Test für die Hypothese {pP ₀} über den Parameterp einer Binomialverteilung gegen die Alternative {p>P ₀}) verglichen. Für dent-Test wird die relative asymptotische Effizienz bestimmt.Beide Tests lassen sich als Tests für das zur WahrscheinlichkeitP ₀ gehörende Quantil einer Verteilungsfunktion interpretieren. Der klassische zentrale Student-Test ergibt sich als Spezialfall (F(x)=(x),P ₀=0,5).

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Summary Let {F _,(x);–<<, >0} withF _,(x ₀):=F((x–)/–F(x) a standarized distribution function — the family of admissible distribution functions. The (earlier introduced) generalized noncentralt-test for the hypothesis {PP ₀} withP:=F _,(x ₀) against the alternative {P>P ₀} at level of significance is compared with the corresponding nonparametric test (Binomial test). The relative asymptotic efficiency of thet-test is determined. Both kinds of tests can be interpreted as quantiltests. In caseF(x)=(x),P ₀=0,5 one gets the classical central Student-test.

     

Effect of outliers on the estimation of parameters

Summary The estimation of parameter in the type of distributionf(x)=b x ^{–1 /b} exp (–x ^b (/b),x>0, is considered, when several outliers of the type , ,r=1,2, ...,k, are present in the data. The estimates of as well as of 's are put in the closed form. Special cases, Weibull, Gamma and Exponential are considered for the case of single outlier. Actual estimates are calculated from the generated samples of size 2 and 3 for the Weibull and Exponential.     

RAM: A Range Adjusted Measure of Inefficiency for Use with Additive Models,and Relations to Other Models and Measures in DEA

Generalized Efficiency Measures (GEMS) for use in DEA are developed and analyzed in a context of differing models where they might be employed. The additive model of DEA is accorded a central role and developed in association with a new measure of efficiency referred to as RAM (Range Adjusted Measure). The need for separately treating input oriented and output oriented approaches to efficient measurement is eliminated because additive models effect their evaluations by maximizing distance from the efficient frontier (in ₁, or weighted ₁, measure) and thereby simultaneously maximize outputs and minimize inputs. Contacts with other models and approaches are maintained with theorems and accompanying proofs to ensure the validity of the thus identified relations. New criteria are supplied, both managerial and mathematical, for evaluating proposed measures. The concept of approximating models is used to further extend these possibilities. The focus of the paper is on the physical aspects of performance involved in technical and mix inefficiencies. However, an Appendix shows how overall, allocative and technical inefficiencies may be incorporated in additive models.     

Sulla dipendenza continua della probabilità di rovina dal caricamento dei premi

Si studia un modo di approssimare la probabilità di rovina relativa a un caricamento ₀ con le probabilità di rovina relative a una successione di caricamenti ( _k ) _k , che approssimano ₀ quandok tende all'infinito.

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Summary In this paper we study a way of approximating the probability of ruin related to a loading ₀, by the probabilities of ruin related of a sequence of loadings ( _k ) _k which «approximate» ₀ ask converges to infinity.

     

Estimation of a regression coefficient after two preliminary tests of significance

Summary The estimation of the regression coefficient of a population, defined byE (y)= +x, incorporating two preliminary tests of significance has been discussed. The experimenter has two random samples of different sizes from two such populations, as defined above, with regression coefficients ₁ and ₂ respectively, where ₂ may possibly be equal to ₁. Besides this, it is also conjectured that the common conditional variance ² of the two populations has a specified value ₀ ² . The two preliminary tests are used to resolve these two uncertainties.The author has rejoined Lucknow University, Lucknow India on Oct. 4, 1976 after availing leave for two years.