A Note on Exchange Rate Trend-Stationarity *

This note extends Goodfriend (1987) to a small open economy to demonstrate that the exchange rate may be non-trend-stationary if the monetary authorities attempt to smooth both the price level and the exchange rate. [431]     

Strategic Trade Policy Under Uncertainty*

This paper extends the Brander-Spencer (1985) model by considering market uncertainty, exploring nonlinear policy, and examining firms' choices of strategic variables. By investigating the interrelationship between trade policy and market conduct, we find that unlike the often-studied linear policy, a nonlinear policy can influence the domestic firm's choice of strategic variables and hence alter the market conduct in favor of the domestic country. Therefore, a nonlinear policy proves strictly superior to a linear one.     

Endogenous Choice of Trade Instrument Under Uncertainty *

This Paper endogenizes the choice between import tariffs and quotas of two policy active countries in a duopsonistic world market. Without uncertainty, import quotas are welfare superior to import tariffs in equilibrium. If two importers can precommit to a type of instrument before deciding the level of the instrument to use in a future period, an import quota equilibrium emerges. We introduce asymmetric risk in the import demand schedule of the two importers. There exists a range of parameters in which a mixed equilibrium emerges, i.e. one country uses a tariff while the other restricts trade with an import quota. The likelihood that both importers choose a different trade instrument in equilibrium is increasing with the correlation coefficient of the two random shocks. [F13]     

Targeting the Exchange Rate Under Inflation*

The purpose of this paper is to implement empirically a variant of the new theory of exchange-rate targeting, suitable for high-inflation, small, open economies. We formulate an expectations-induced relationship between the exchange rate and the fundamental, subject to random shocks and target-zone constraints on rates of depreciation. the empirical analysis provides estimates for the key parameters of the exchange-rate dynamic equation, and thereby identifies the unique roles played by policy variables and market fundamentals in foreign-exchange markets.     

A Geometric Analysis of Exchange Rate Adjustment Under Static and Rational Expectations*

This note presents a simple geometric apparatus for analyzing macroeconomic questions relating to small open economies. The particular problem analyzed here for illustrative purposes is the adjustment of a floating exchange rate regime, under both static and rational expectations, to a step increase in the money supply. We consider both an unanticipated immediate increase and an unanticipated announcement of a forthcoming increase. We derive the general criterion which determines whether the exchange rate initially overshoots or undershoots the change required for long-run equilibrium.     

A Note on Viable Proposals*

Sengupta and Sengupta (“Viable Proposals,”International Economic Review 35 (1994), 347–59.) consider a payoff vector of a TU‐game as a viable proposal if it challenges each legitimate contender. They show that for each game the set of viable proposals is nonempty. Their proof, however, has a flaw. I present a proof based upon a result by Kalai and Schmeidler (“An Admissible Set Occurring in Various Bargaining Situations,”Journal of Economic Theory 14 (1977), 402–11) .     

Investment Under Monetary Uncertainty: A Panel Data Investigation

There is a presumption in the literature that price or exchange rate uncertainty, or uncertainty in the monetary conditions underlying them, will have a negative effect on investment. Some argue that this negative effect will be extended by imperfect competition. However, models of irreversible investment show that the situation is more complicated than that. In these models, investment expenditures are affected by the scrapping price available on world markets and also by the opportunity cost of waiting rather than investing. The impact of uncertainty is therefore going to depend on the type of industry and hence on the industrial structure of the economy concerned. In addition, it may depend on the persistence of any price misalignments away from competitive equilibrium. In this paper, we put these theoretical predictions to the test. We estimate investment equations for 13 different industries using data for nine OECD countries over the period 1970–2000. We find that the impact of price uncertainty is negative or insignificant in all but one case whereas the impact of (nominal) exchange rate uncertainty is negative in only six cases, positive in four cases, and insignificant in three others. In addition, there are conflicting effects from the real exchange rate. The net effect depends on whether the source of the uncertainty is in domestic markets or in foreign markets.     

R&D Subsidies Under Asymmetric Duopoly: A Note

This paper analyses the question of optimum R&D subsidies in the context of a two-stage asymmetric Cournot duopoly model with endogenous R&D. For the special case of symmetric duopoly, whether the firms should be subsidized or taxed in their R&D activities crucially depends on the concavity/convexity property of the demand function. It is also shown that a firm with some initial cost advantage should be subsidized in its R&D activities and a firm without should be taxed. In this way, we obtain policy implications that cast doubts on the universal applicability of competition policies.
JEL Classification Numbers: L13, L52, H25.