What Can We Learn from Droppers and Non-adopters About the Role of Advice in Agricultural Innovation?

In this article we assess the diversity of sources of advice identified by 678 adopters, 295 non-adopters and 107 droppers (or dis-adopters, who have ceased or reduced the use) of agricultural innovations across 13 European countries. For most innovations, the volume and composition of advisory supports (e.g. public advisory services, farm business organisations, NGOs, research and development sector, other farmers), at the whole farm level were similar between adopters, non-adopters and droppers. However, there were significant differences in relation to specific innovations. Farmers adopting digital technologies, soil-improving cropping systems, and common management of natural resources identified more diverse sources when assessing innovations, suggesting that more diverse advisory support supported successful implementation. For new on-farm activities, non-adopters had more varied sources of advice than adopters. This demonstrates that non-adoption can be a well-informed decision. Droppers typically identified fewer sources of advice on an innovation than adopters, particularly in the later stages of the innovation process, suggesting that lack of advice impeded successful implementation. The findings suggest that public funding for advisory services could usefully target emergent gaps: to support the provision of up-to-date advice on topics to farmers who have difficulty accessing advice, and to prevent unnecessary dropping by supporting the implementation of innovations.     

FACTORS AFFECTING FERTILIZER ADOPTION IN LESS DEVELOPED COUNTRIES: AN APPLICATION OF MULTIVARIATE LOGISTIC ANALYSIS IN MALAŴI

Fertilizer is one of the critical inputs used in improving smallholder food and agricultural productivity in Mala?i. However, analytical studies to identify factors influencing fertilizer adoption have so far never been conducted in Mala?i and effects of policy changes relating to fertilizer adoption appear to be assessed subjectively. In this paper, a logit model is employed to identify the main factors influencing fertilizer use in farms surveyed in the Lilongwe Rural Development Project. In descending order, crop, farming system, crop variety, credit access, income from off-farm employment and regular labour are the main factors influencing fertilizer adoption, thus, policies impinging on these variables would be expected to have most effect on the number of fertilizer adopters, especially wholly subsistence and groundnut cash-crop farmers most of whom use no fertilizer at present.     

Innovation and Trade with Endogenous Market Failure: The Case of Genetically Modified Products

A partial-equilibrium, two-country model is developed to analyze implications from the introduction of genetically modified (GM) products. In the model, innovators hold proprietary rights, farmers are (competitive) adopters, some consumers deem GM food to be inferior in quality to traditional food, and the mere introduction of GM crops affects the costs of non-GM food (because of costly identity preservation). Among the results derived, it is shown that, although GM innovations have the potential to improve efficiency, some groups can be made worse off. Indeed, it is even possible that the costs induced by GM innovations outweigh the efficiency gains.     

不同项目治理模式对示范区农户带动的影响——以农业标准化示范区项目为例

[目的]农业试点示范项目的实施在我国由来已久,其治理模式和制度体系正面临转型,发挥市场主体的能动性,辐射带动更多小农户参与标准化生产,尤为重要。[方法]以农业标准化示范项目为例,探讨示范项目治理模式的转型及对示范区农户的带动机理,并基于301个示范区的调研数据,实证分析不同项目治理模式对示范区农户带动的影响。[结果]我国农业标准化示范项目正在经历从政府主导模式向市场主导模式的转变;市场主导的治理模式在带动农户直接参与标准化生产方面,要优于政府主导的治理模式;具体而言,市场主导模式中,“公司+中介组织+农户+基地+标准”模式,要优于“公司+农户+基地+标准”模式。此外,该研究进一步发现,农业标准化宣传、产业化程度、技术准入门槛、集约化程度、农业机械化水平等因素同样会影响示范区农户带动。[结论]因此,应更好地发挥市场作用,撬动更多社会资本,鼓励新型经营主体参与、承担示范项目,并提升中介组织的协调和推广能力,从而积极形成市场导向的多元治理格局。     

Household nutrition and income impacts of using dairy technologies in mixed crop–livestock production systems

Technologies like improved breeds of dairy cows and improved forages have the potential to significantly increase dairy cow productivity and farmers’ profits in developing countries. However, adoption of such technologies has been low in Ethiopia, despite numerous efforts to disseminate the technologies in the past. Some studies argue that adoption of technologies is low because welfare effects of the technologies could be insignificant or negative to certain groups of farmers. This article employed propensity score matching and inverse probability weighting estimator with regression adjustment to examine the difference in household nutrition and income between adopters and nonadopters of dairy technologies in rural Ethiopia. We find that adoption of cross‐bred dairy cows and improved forages increases household nutrition and income. The significant household nutrition and income impact for adopters support the notion that many Ethiopian smallholders have not adopted dairy technologies because adopters and nonadopters of dairy technologies have inherent differences in welfare outcome potentials. The results suggest that interventions that enhance access to farm resources and address barriers to input and output value chains could improve adoption of dairy technologies.     

A REGRESSION TEST OF THE PRESENT VALUE MODEL OF US FARMLAND PRICES

Regression methods previously employed to study stock price movements are used to test how well the present value model under rational expectations explains farmland price movements. Based on data on farmland prices and rents (returns to landownership) covering the period 1921-89 from three agricultural regions in the United States, the empirical results reject the present value model under rational expectations. These results suggest that farmers may be well-characterised as displaying satisficing rather than profit-maximising behaviour.     

DISTANCE TO INFORMATION SOURCE AND THE TIME LAG TO EARLY ADOPTION OF TRACE ELEMENT FERTILISERS

Some hypotheses about the timing of farmers becoming aware of an innovation and the subsequent decision to use that innovation are derived from a recently developed, decision-theoretic model of the adoption process. They are tested using empirical evidence on the time taken by early adopters of trace element fertilisers in S.A. to discover and decide to use this innovation. The central role of information search in the adoption process is emphasised and it is postulated that various distance measures provide a useful measure of information availability and reliability. The results of the empirical analysis are consistent with the hypothesised relationships. Another finding is the importance of distinguishing between early adopters who are genuinely innovative, and those potential later adopters who adopt early because they happen, by chance, to operate a farm in close proximity to another early adopter.     

Technology,production environment,and household income: Assessing the regional impacts of technological change

This paper clarifies the factors determining the welfare effects of improved agricultural technologies when technology diffusion is unevenly distributed across production environments Household-level income effects are shown to depend primarily on: (a) whether the economy is open or closed with respect to world markets; (b) whether households are net consumers or net producers of the commodity for which technological change occurs; (c) whether households are adopters or non-adopters of the new technology; (d) the degree to which labor is mobile across agricultural regions; and (e) government intervention in commodity and/or factor markets. A review of recent empirical work indicates considerable variation in the relative strength of these various factors across countries, and that assumptions regarding the mechanism by which commodity prices are determined – endogenously as in a closed economy, or exogenously as in an open economy – is especially critical.     

Nontraditional crops,traditional constraints: The long‐term welfare impacts of export crop adoption among Guatemalan smallholders

This article documents the long‐term welfare effects of household nontraditional agricultural export (NTX) adoption. We use a panel dataset that spans the period 1985–2005, and employ difference‐in‐differences estimation to investigate the long‐term impact of nontraditional agricultural export adoption on changes in household consumption status and asset position in the Central Highlands of Guatemala. Given the heterogeneity in adoption patterns, the analysis differentiates the impact estimates based on a classification of households that takes into account the timing and duration of nontraditional agricultural export adoption. The results show that while, on average, welfare levels have improved for all households irrespective of adoption status and duration, the extent of improvement has varied across groups. Long‐term adopters exhibit the smallest increase in the lapse of two decades, in spite of some early gains. Conversely, early adopters who withdrew from nontraditional agricultural export production after reaping the benefits of the boom period of the 1980s are found to have fared better and shown greater improvements in durable asset position and housing conditions than any other category.     

USE OF SOCIOLOGY IN AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS

Agricultural economists have been slow to approach other behavioural sciences. Nevertheless, sociology, concerned with social interaction among persons, social psychology focusing on behaviour as determined by personality and economics, dealing with the allocation of scarce resources to maximise welfare, offer complementary explanations of human behaviour. Sociology can provide a more informed basis for the simplifying assumptions the economist makes about social structure and human motivation and help to account for noneconomic variations in phenomena of common interest. The economist may benefit from the approach, concepts and empirical generalisations of sociology and may borrow variables, survey techniques and methods of analysis. Examples of studies in agricultural economics where sociology might contribute include problem farming areas, occupational mobility, regional or rural community development, agricultural extension and adoption of innovations, consumer behaviour and co-operation.     

The role of knowledge,attitudes and perceptions in the uptake of agricultural and agroforestry innovations among smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa

Despite the great potential of agricultural innovations, the uptake by smallholder farmers in sub-Saharan Africa seems to be slow. We reviewed existing theories and frameworks for the uptake of agricultural innovations and found that these tend to emphasize the role of extrinsic factors such as the characteristics of the adopter and the external environment in the decision-making process. In this paper, we argue that intrinsic factors such as the knowledge, perceptions and attitudes of the potential adopter towards the innovation play a key role, but this has been less studied. We present an analytical framework that combines both extrinsic and intrinsic factors in farmers' decisions to adopt new agricultural technologies and apply the framework to agroforestry adoption as a case study. We review the literature on agroforestry adoption in sub-Saharan Africa and identify the extrinsic and intrinsic variables affecting the uptake of agroforestry technologies. We conclude that the uptake of agricultural technologies is a complex process influenced by both extrinsic and intrinsic variables, and recommend that future studies aiming to understand the adoption process of agricultural innovations take into account both sets of variables. A mechanistic understanding of how intrinsic and extrinsic factors interact and drive adoption can help in targeting technologies appropriately to ensure sustainability.     

Impact of agricultural innovation adoption: a meta‐analysis

The impacts of adopting agricultural innovation and technology are widely examined. This paper synthesises 154 studies, which yielded a total of 600 estimates of the impact of adopting agricultural innovation and technology on production, social and economic outcomes. Using meta‐regression analysis, the empirical results show that the reported impact of adopting agricultural innovation and technology rises significantly over time, notwithstanding a significant publication bias. Whether studies find significant impacts of adopting agricultural innovation and technology depends on the use of experimental research designs, parametric method, endogenous switching regression and region. Our results show a large bias in the literature towards agricultural innovations and technologies that focus on high‐yielding varieties and thus, neglect other forms of complementary innovations and technologies.     

LABOUR INPUT DECISIONS OF SUBSISTENCE FARM HOUSEHOLDS IN SOUTHERN MALAWI

The objective of the paper is the presentation of a farm-household model which allows an analysis of labour input decisions of rural households in an environment with risky agricultural technologies and off-farm employment opportunities. Labour input decisions are condensed into a stochastic linear programming framework, and applied to a typical rural household in Southern Malawi. Weak adoption of yield-increasing technologies is explained by different opportunity costs of time of family members and by the risky nature of income generated using traditional or yield-increasing agricultural technologies. The view that land-saving innovations will increase agricultural production is revised. Special extension programmes for family members with low off-farm employment opportunities are proposed to increase the adoption of those technologies. These programmes have the purpose of reducing anticipated subjective income deviations for yield-increasing innovations.     

Exploring farmer perceptions of agricultural innovations for maize-legume intensification in the mid-hills region of Nepal

Maize-legume intercropping is a fundamental component of mixed farming systems in the mid-hills of Nepal. However, its productivity is constrained by several biophysical and social factors, and limited adoption of proven agricultural innovations. In this study, we assessed the productivity impact of a selection of relevant agricultural innovations and changes in the associated perceptions of farmers through a series of two-year participatory on-farm trials. The evaluated innovations resulted in higher yields as compared to farmers' current practices. The active involvement of farmers enlarged our understanding of underlying decision-making factors to adopt or non-adopt agricultural innovations. Additionally, the in-depth farmer engagement in our onfarm trials positively influenced farmer perceptions of the innovations and their interest to adopt the agricultural innovations. Yet, farmers final decisions to adopt some of the evaluated innovations were limited by a host of factors including labour scarcity, the availability of inputs, and by cultural preferences despite the increased yields. This was particularly true for low and medium resource-endowed farmers. This study shows the importance of active farmer participation and context-specific design of research and development projects aiming for local impact.     

Capturing social network effects in technology adoption: the spatial diffusion of hybrid rice in Bangladesh

In this paper, we demonstrate a method for measuring the effect of spatial interactions on the use of hybrid rice using a unique, nationally representative data set from Bangladesh. In order to circumvent the ‘reflection problem’, we consider an identification and estimation strategy employing a generalised spatial two‐stage least squares procedure with near‐ideal instruments to effectively identify causal influences. Results indicate that neighbour effects are a significant determinant of hybrid rice use. Further, using two specifications of spatial network systems, one based on same‐village membership (irrespective of distance) and the other based on geographical distance (irrespective of village boundary), we demonstrate that a network including nearby hybrid rice adopters is more influential than a network of more distant hybrid rice adopters, and merely having a network with a large number of adopters may be relatively meaningless if they are far away. Furthermore, we show that these network effects are much more important to hybrid cultivation than interactions with agricultural extension officers.     

南方丘陵山区农业可持续发展综合评价及实证分析

[目的]基于农业可持续发展的内涵(农业经济、资源环境、文化科技和农村社会等四个方面),结合南方丘陵山区山多、森林覆盖率高的特点,通过实地调研并咨询农业相关方面的专家,构建了南方丘陵山区农业可持续发展评价指标体系;全面诊断南方丘陵山区农业可持续发展状况和存在的问题。[方法]文章以江西省莲花县为实证,运用加权综合评价模型、协调度模型和发展障碍度模型对研究区农业可持续发展现状、可持续发展潜能和障碍因素进行分析研究。[结果]研究区农业可持续发展综合能力处于良性增长的态势,2000—2016年农业可持续发展综合评价指数年均增长10.25%;可持续发展协调度综合指数0.78。[结论]研究区农业可持续发展具有较好的前景;影响研究区农业可持续发展的主要障碍因素为农村社会,它对总体目标贡献了66.48%的障碍度。加快农村城镇化进程,减少农村贫困率有助于促进农村社会的和谐发展。     

Agent‐based modeling for ex ante assessment of tree crop innovations: litchis in northern Thailand

This study uses an agent‐based model for ex ante assessment of agricultural innovations. The model builds on whole farm mathematical programming (MP) and extends the methodology with a spatial representation of the system, the heterogeneity of farm households and landscapes, and the interaction between farm households. We apply the model in a northern Thai watershed to study the potential of four innovations to increase the profitability of litchi orchards. Cost‐benefit analysis shows that each innovation would increase the profitability of litchi growing; however, the results of the agent‐based model show that at current price levels these innovations alone would not be enough to stem the decline in the area under litchis. The model was validated and the sensitivity of the results tested for variations in the irrigated water supply and liquidity. We report on how farmers responded to these results and discuss the implications for other areas in northern Thailand.     

AGRICULTURAL EXPORTS OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: ESTIMATES OF INCOME AND PRICE ELASTICITIES OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY

This paper provides new evidence on income and price elasticities of demand and supply of agricultural exports from developing countries, on the basis of (a) a consistent and fully specified supply and demand model, and (b) statistical estimation procedures not frequently used in the estimation of agricultural export functions. Estimates of price and income elasticities of demand for aggregate agricultural exports for all developing countries taken together — as distinct from individual exporting countries — are found to be low; moreover, export price as distinguished from non-price factors plays a relatively insignificant role in increasing export supply. Hence, an attempt by all developing countries to expand traditional agricultural exports with low price elasticity of demand may not yield rising earnings for all; but in fact may result in falling export revenues. Insofar as individual exports of all developing countries (not individual countries) are concerned, income and price elasticities of demand for such tropical commodities as tea, coffee, cocoa and bananas are also found to be low, except for new, non-traditional exports like pineapples. This indicates the importance of diversification of agricultural exports as a vehicle for their future growth.     

遥感技术农业资源台账建设应用潜力分析

目的 为了系统地分析遥感技术在农业资源台账建设中的应用潜力。方法 文章通过文献研究,阐述了农业资源台账的研究现状,分析了农业资源遥感监测数据源与监测技术的发展趋势,研判了当前遥感技术在农业资源台账建设中的应用潜力。结果 （1）农业资源台账的建设内容主要包括农业资源清单、农业资源评价两个方面,具有空间与时间两种属性。（2）农业遥感数据源向着高空间分辨率、高时间分辨率、高光谱分辨率的方向发展,其监测技术向着多源遥感数据融合应用、智能分类、多维海量数据高效计算的方向发展。（3）遥感技术可对农业资源清单中的主要农业自然资源和社会经济资源的信息进行获取,对农业资源组分评价与农业生态系统整体评价也有很大潜力。结论 总的来看,农业资源台账建设内容不断丰富,遥感技术在农业资源台账建设中的应用能力显著提升,其应用潜力仍有很大的上升空间,对高效开展农业资源台账建设具有积极作用。     

乡村振兴战略下区域农业人口预测研究以黄淮海平原典型农业区为例

目的 准确预测区域农业人口规模可为推进新型城镇化和乡村振兴战略提供数据支撑。方法 文章针对传统的自回归滑动平均模型不能直接应用于时间序列的中期预测的缺点,借助抗噪音迭代模型在中期人口预测方面的优势,将传统的自回归滑动平均模型的求解问题化为模型参数的非线性问题,推导并完整给出了模型的代价函数关于模型参数的梯度, 继而给出了模型参数的迭代求解公式,从而构建了改进的自适应自回归滑动平均模型,并以黄淮海平原两个典型生态区——曲周县传统农业区和北京市都市农业区为例进行农业人口中期预测。结果 结果显示该模型的预测精度较高,结果可信。传统农业区曲周县的农业人口呈小幅波动性增加且增速趋缓并逐渐趋向于一个理性范围内;都市农业区北京市的农业人口呈小幅波动性下降且降速趋缓并逐渐稳定在一个理性范围内。结论 改进的自适应自回归滑动平均模型可很好地进行区域农业人口的中期预测;针对黄淮海平原两个典型生态区——曲周县传统农业区和北京都市农业区的农业人口变化的特点,提出了相应的人口策略。