一个古典经济周期波动模型——对Goodwin古典周期模型的重构

基于古典主义思想对于劳动与资本这一经济运行核心关系的论述,本文对Goodwin周期模型进行了重构,构建一个由工资份额与资本存量组成的二维古典经济周期波动模型.稳定性分析结果表明,模型的均衡状态为非稳定焦点均衡,一旦脱离均衡点,经济将在工资份额与资本存量相互作用的驱动下围绕均衡点做周期性波动,且波动的幅度逐步加大.产生这一现象的根本原因在于工资性收入与资本性收入即资本存量之间比例结构的波动.     

环境质量与经济增长:代际交叠模型下的理论分析

通过建立包含环境质量的代际交叠模型,考察了环境质量与经济增长之间的动态关系.模型既包含了环境对产出及效用的影响,也考虑了生产的外部性.分析表明,内点解下的稳态存在多重均衡,并在此基础上对均衡点进行了稳定性及比较静态分析;其次,当经济由角点解过渡到内点解时,环境质量与经济增长之间存在倒U型的关系,这可以进一步解释为何不同的环境污染问题会有不同的治理难度;最后,从福利分析角度得出,在一定条件下,资本存量的动态无效性会引起环境质量的动态无效性.     

环境与经济增长的动态均衡分析——基于环境索洛模型

本文基于索洛模型,通过将环境资本这一变量引入生产函数中之中构建一个环境索洛模型,运用数理经济学动态均衡分析方法证明环境索洛模型在稻田条件(Inada Condition)下可以保证经济增长路径收敛,并运用相位图分析法对此进行了验证。在此基础上,进一步分析了模型中储蓄率、环境损失强度、环境自我更新率等参数对环境和经济的影响,提出相应政策建议。     

新型数字基础设施、空间溢出与经济增长

为探究新型数字基础设施对经济增长的影响,本文首先将新型数字基础设施资本存量及其拥挤性纳入总量生产函数,构建动态一般均衡模型,从理论上探讨新型数字基础设施对经济增长的影响;其次,对2002—2020年我国各省（市、区）的新型数字基础设施进行测算和分析;最后,构建静态面板数据模型和空间面板模型,实证检验新型数字基础设施对经济增长的影响。结果表明,新型数字基础设施对经济增长的影响呈现“倒U型”变化,新型数字基础设施对经济增长具有显著的空间溢出效应。求解“倒U型”顶点对应的最优基础设施资本存量占总资本存量的比例为48.60%,目前,我国所有省（市、区）均未达到48.60%,意味着加强新型数字基础设施建设将会促进本地区和其他地区经济增长。     

知识生产函数、规模报酬和经济增长模式——R＆D模型对中国的实证检验

R&D模型是经济增长理论的一个重要、前沿的部分,它认为技术进步和创新是一个国家经济增长的动力。R&D模型将经济长期增长的源泉归结于知识生产函数中两种投入要素——知识和资本的规模报酬,并且把经济的长期增长模式区分成三种类型:稳定性均衡、非稳定性均衡和半稳定性均衡。文章首次对知识生产函数进行实证检验,以此来判断我国经济增长模式。通过对2004-2006年中国243个城市面板数据的研究,发现中国的经济增长模式属于稳定性均衡的类型,新知识的生产对知识和资本的规模报酬是递减的,经济会在某个增长率稳定下来,劳动力和资本存量中用于研究和开发的比例和储蓄率的上升,在长期内都不会改变这个稳定的增长率。     

流通速度与经济增长--对索洛经济增长解释框架的扩展

本文通过对费雪方程式的一般化抽象,将经济增长与流通速度紧密联系在一起,得到了流通方程式.根据流通方程式,资本、劳动力和技术进步三要素对经济增长的贡献等于各自存量与流通速度的乘积.在此基础上,本文通过一系列数学变换,对索洛经济增长解释框架进行了扩展,得到了新的经济增长决定函数.该决定函数提示了流通速度与经济增长的关系,即,在要素增长率特别是技术进步存量增长率一定的情况下,经济增长率取决于社会流通速度的增长率.本文还依据马克思经济学原理和现代经济学理论,进一步分析了流通速度增长率的构成,认为制度环境状况、交通基础设施(装备)条件、社会交易总量和信息技术状况是流通速度增长率的最终决定因素.     

新古典增长理论的方法论评析

从Solow模型到新增长理论模型，由于它们所采用的研究方法而统一到了新古典增长理论这个旗帜之下，这个研究方法实质上就是以总量生产函数为基础的均衡分析。但总量生产函数以及以其为基础的均衡分析对于研究经济增长问题具有局限性。总量生产函数囿于其背后的实证主义方法论，不可能真正触及经济增长问题的本质——投入产出之间函数关系的变化规律，而只能不适当地把问题转化为投入产出之间的数量关系来进行研究。     

中国天然气消费与区域经济增长——基于全国30个省市的面板数据分析

将天然气消费作为一种生产要素,与劳动力和资本存量共同投入C-D生产函数建立计量模型。利用单位根检验、协整检验和格兰杰因果检验对中国30个省市的天然气消费与经济增长进行了实证分析,协整检验表明经济发展和天然气增长有长期均衡关系,格兰杰因果检验结果表明天然气消费是经济增长的因,而经济增长不是天然气消费的因,最后对天然气的发展提出了一些政策建议。     

重庆市金融发展与经济增长关系的实证研究

本文基于资本对经济增长的促进作用,将资本分为实体资本存量和金融资本,再利用重庆市1997年至2013年金融和经济时间序列数据,通过格兰杰因果关系检验、VAR模型估计以及脉冲响应函数对经济增长和金融发展的关系进行了实证分析.结果表明:重庆市的金融发展对经济增长影响不显著;而经济增长对金融发展有显著的促进作用,说明重庆目前还处于金融系统运行效率偏低的阶段.     

山西省人才资本对经济增长贡献的实证分析

本文借鉴内生经济增长理论,采用柯布一道格拉斯生产函数,通过计量经济学的手段,建立了人才资本对经济增长贡献实证评价模型,并构建了相关模型的指标体系,对山西省1978—2010年间相关经济和人才数据中的人才资本存量和经济增长关系进行定量分析,考察山西省人才资本在经济增长中的的地位及其对经济增长的作用和贡献率。结果表明,自改革开放以来,山西省人才对经济增长的贡献率不断上升,但仍低于物质资本的贡献水平,经济增长带有明显的资本推动型特征,而人才资本的产出弹性溢出效应明显,说明山西人才资本的规模收益仍处于高速递增阶段。据此提出,在经济增长方式转型跨越发展期,应该提高人力资本投资水平,优化人才资源在产业内部的配置,制定有效的人才培养和引进机制,提高人才资源对经济增长的贡献率,最终完成经济增长方式的根本性转变,实现山西全面建设小康社会的宏伟目标。     

Pleasure and belief in Hume's Decision Process

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is to introduce explicitly pleasure and belief in what aims at being a Humean theory of decision, like the one developed in Diaye and Lapidus (2005a). Although we support the idea that Hume was in some way a hedonist – evidently different from Bentham's or Jevons' way – we lay emphasis less on continuity than on the specific kind of hedonism encountered in Hume's writings (chiefly the Treatise, the second Enquiry, the Dissertation, or some of his Essays). Such hedonism clearly contrasts to its standard modern inheritance, expressed by the relation between preferences and utility.

The reason for such a difference with the usual approach lies in the mental process that Hume puts to the fore in order to explain the way pleasure determines desires and volition. Whereas pleasure is primarily, in Hume's words, an impression of sensation, it takes place in the birth of passions as reflecting an idea of pleasure, whose “force and vivacity” is precisely a “belief”, transferred to the direct passions of desire or volition that come immediately before action. As a result, from a Humean point of view, “belief” deals with decision under risk or uncertainty, as well as with intertemporal decision and indiscrimination problems.

The latter are explored within a formal framework, and it is shown that the relation of pleasure is transformed by belief into a non-empty class of relations of desire, among which at least one is a preorder.     

Globalization,Neoliberalism and the attack on social security

Neoliberal political movements advocate privatization of public pension systems. Globalization imposes pressure on nations to conform to neoliberal policy views with respect to the design and structure of social insurance, including public pension systems. The paper begins with an investigation of the economic, ethical and ideological dimensions of the privatization debates in the U.S.; it argues that privatization advocates may be largely moved by ideology, since the other reasons advanced appear weak or unfounded. The second part discusses the history of Social Security, the purposes for its creation, and some of its economic effects. Differences between public and private pension systems are considered. A brief international comparison of some aspects of public pension system finance and benefit structures is presented. The final section considers the ethical, macroeconomic and distributional implications of privatization, prefunding and payroll tax funding, and argues for a pay as you go system financed with income taxes. In order to promote equity, economic security, community, and social cohesion, public pension systems should be universal in coverage. In order to reduce the inequality, income insecurity, and aged poverty generated by market economies, public pension systems ought to be progressive: benefit/contribution ratios should be inversely proportional to income, and progressive income taxes should finance the system. To promote economic growth, the systems should be financed on a pay-as-you-go basis, and should not be prefunded except for an emergency reserve. The fiscal policy recommendations partially depend upon the theory developed by Abba Lerner in the 1940s, and recently advanced by Wynne Godley and Randy Wray: Lerner's “principle of functional finance.”     

John Stuart Mill's Theory Of Justice

John Stuart Mill has traditionally been portrayed as self-contradictory and failing to construct a unified social theory. Recent scholarship, however, has challenged this view, finding Mill's work to be creatively synthetic in bridging the antinomies inherent in liberal democratic thought. This revisionist interpretation of Mill is advanced by an understanding of his theory of justice and its role in shaping his policy positions on issues such as welfare, education, voting rights, property rights, taxation, government intervention, and the future of capitalism.     

A Rich Vein for “Reality Mining”北大核心CSSCISSCI

Arik Hesseldahl In the aftermath of the September 11 attacks, U.S. officials quickly turned their attention to other potential targets, including California's Golden Gate Bridge. What would happen if terrorists took down the bridge between San Francisco and Marin County? How much of the region would be affected and for how long?     

Perspective on the Economic Evolution of the European Union States Under the Impact of the Pandemic and Financial-Economic Crisis

The European Union,which is at the beginning of its term of office for all Member States in the European Parliament,the European Commission,its governing body a...     

中国养活自己能力的长期预测:技术和政策分析

中国拥有世界五分之一强的人口 ,收入又在迅速增长。因此 ,国际上很自然地会考虑或推测她在今后的几十年是否有能力养活自己。中国的人口预计将从 2 0 0 0年的 1 2 8亿增长到 2 0 2 0年的 1 4 6亿 ,和 2 0 3 0年的 1 4 9亿。与此同时 ,人均收入的增长将导致对家畜和鱼类产品更大的需求 ,因而对饲料的需求也将有很大的增长     

Interest on reserves and inflation

The payment of interest on reserves has been a common practice in inflationary economies. This policy may seem paradoxical since it involves returning part of the seigniorage, generated by the inflation process, with the intention to finance the fiscal deficit. This paper argues that the motivation for this policy can be captured by the discretionary regime, where the policymaker pays interest on reserves because he is concerned with the erosion of real liquidity by inflation, which is in part beyond his control. However, this policy is an unlikely outcome in the commitment regime, where the policymaker is in full control of inflation.     

John Stuart Mill's Theories of Wealth and Income Distribution

Although he was much influenced by David Ricardo when he wrote the classical part of his Principles , John Stuart Mill was not a Ricardian when he penned his theories of wealth and distribution. They are based on a triple foundation. First, a belief that economics is a moral discipline. Second a theory of custom-driven human behavior. Third, an empirically formed conviction that the institutions of state, education and business cooperate to structure the distribution of income. On the basis of these presuppositions, Mill formulated 1) an institutional theory of the formation of human and non-human wealth and 2) an even more institutional theory of distribution demonstrating how the aforementioned institutions malignantly skew the distribution of income to the advantage of the propertied classes and to the extreme disadvantage of the working class. As a social economist, Mill recommended institutional reforms designed to eradicate the poverty of the working class.     

Forecasting the price of gold

This article seeks to evaluate the appropriateness of a variety of existing forecasting techniques (17 methods) at providing accurate and statistically significant forecasts for gold price. We report the results from the nine most competitive techniques. Special consideration is given to the ability of these techniques to provide forecasts which outperforms the random walk (RW) as we noticed that certain multivariate models (which included prices of silver, platinum, palladium and rhodium, besides gold) were also unable to outperform the RW in this case. Interestingly, the results show that none of the forecasting techniques are able to outperform the RW at horizons of 1 and 9 steps ahead, and on average, the exponential smoothing model is seen providing the best forecasts in terms of the lowest root mean squared error over the 24-month forecasting horizons. Moreover, we find that the univariate models used in this article are able to outperform the Bayesian autoregression and Bayesian vector autoregressive models, with exponential smoothing reporting statistically significant results in comparison with the former models, and classical autoregressive and the vector autoregressive models in most cases.