Sovereign rating changes—Do they provide new information for stock markets?

The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of sovereign rating changes on international financial markets using a comprehensive database of 42 countries, covering the major regions in the world over the period 1995–2003. In general, we find that rating agencies provide stock and foreign exchange markets with new tradable information. Specifically, rating upgrades (downgrades) significantly increased (decreased) USD denominated stock market returns and decreased (increased) volatility. Whereas the mean response is contributed evenly by the local currency stock returns and exchange rate changes that make up the USD returns, only the foreign exchange volatility was behind the USD denominated return volatility. In addition, we find significant asymmetric effects of rating announcements. The market responses – both return and volatility – are more pronounced in the cases of downgrades, foreign currency debt, emerging market debt, and during crisis periods. This study has important policy implications for international investors’ asset allocation plans and for regulatory bodies such as the Basel Committee who increasingly rely upon Moody's, Standard and Poor's and Fitch's ratings for their regulatory regimes.     

Procuring complex performance in construction: London Heathrow Terminal 5 and a Private Finance Initiative hospital

This paper takes as its starting point the fact that complex projects, interpreted as multiple dependent interactions between many stakeholders over time, challenge traditional procurement practices based on the serial purchase of discrete components. The paper examines how the procurement management of such projects – procuring complex performance – can be conducted. The paper utilises two contrasting case study examples of high-profile UK construction project procurement. The findings suggest that the choice of mechanisms or interfaces for the governance of upstream supply relationships critically relates to subsequent performance. The theoretical contribution is a fusion of procurement literature with the influential CoPS literature.     

Shaping buyer–supplier relationships in manufacturing contexts: Design and test of a contingency model

Although the idea that buyer–supplier partnerships can yield considerable benefits to firms is largely diffused among researchers and practitioners, the approach adopted in this paper is that no “one best way” exists in buyer–supplier relationships, but rather a “best way” for each specific exchange context. Hence, this paper proposes a contingency model for shaping and managing buyer–supplier relationships in manufacturing contexts. In order to test the model, an empirical study was performed on a sample of 45 buyer–supplier relationships within the Italian white goods industry. A three-dimensional performance indicator was computed to compare supplier performance achieved within relations matching the model's suggestions with those set differently. The results strongly suggest that suppliers involved in relationships set accordingly to the contingency model are likely to enjoy superior performance.     

The impact of COVID-19 pandemic on the dynamic correlations between gold and U.S. equities: evidence from multifractal cross-correlation analysis

This study exploits multifractal cross-correlation analysis (MFCCA) to investigate the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the cross-correlations between gold and U.S. equity markets using 1-min high-frequency data from January 1, 2019, to December 29, 2020. The MFCCA method shows that the pandemic caused an increase of multifractality in cross-correlations between the two markets. Specifically, the cross-correlations of small fluctuations became more persistent while those of large fluctuations became less persistent, explaining the source of multifractality. The findings of this study carry significant implications for investors, academicians, and policymakers. For example, the increase of multifractality of cross-correlation means that the non-linear relationship between gold and U.S. equity returns prevails more during economic downturns. Therefore, academicians may resort to non-linear techniques to evaluate the relationship between gold and U.S. equity markets during the health pandemic. Moreover, investors can know the value of hedging benefits over different investment time horizons during the pandemic. Finally, policymakers can better assess the economic downturns (i.e., those caused by health pandemics) over the dynamics of cross-correlation between gold and equity markets to make sound financial policies.

     

The value of imperfect sample separation information in mixtures of normal distributions

This paper conducts a Monte Carlo study in order to evaluate the value of information in a normal mixture model when an imperfect sample separation indicator is available. For a variety of cases, computations are done on the ratios of asymptotic variances of the parameter estimators when sample separation is known versus when only the indicator is available. This study is patterned closely on a paper by Schmidt (1981), and obtains similar results when parameters appearing in Schmidt's model are allowed to vary. The new results here focus on the importance of the probabilities that the regime indicator is correct, for each of the two possible regimes.     

Optimal money supply in models with endogenous discount factor

This paper studies the Friedman rule for the optimal quantity of money in money in the utility (MIU) and cash–credit models while considering two specifications for the endogenous discount factor. In the first specification, the discount factor depends directly on the utility level. In the second, the discount factor depends on every component of the utility function. We show that under the former specification the Friedman rule is the optimal policy. Under the latter, however, while the Friedman rule is optimal for the MIU model, it is not optimal for the cash–credit model.     

Multiple equilibria in two-sector monetary economies: An interplay between preferences and the timing for money

In this paper, we study the occurrence of local indeterminacy in two-sector monetary economies. We consider a general MIUF model with two alternative timings in monetary payments: the Cash-In-Advance timing, in which the cash available to buy goods is money in the consumers’ hands after they leave the bond market but before they enter the goods market, and the Cash-After-the-Market timing, in which agents hold money for transactions after leaving the goods market. We consider three standard specifications of preferences: the additively separable formulation, the Greenwood–Hercovitz–Huffman (GHH) (Greenwood et al., 1988) formulation and the King–Plosser–Rebelo (KPR) (King et al., 1988) formulation. First, we show that for all the three types of preferences, local indeterminacy occurs under the CIA timing with a low enough interest rate elasticity of money demand. Second, we show that with the CAM timing, although determinacy always holds under separable preferences, local indeterminacy can occur with GHH and KPR preferences. We thus prove that compared to aggregate models, two-sector models provide new rooms for local indeterminacy when non-separable standard preferences are considered.     

Building long-term orientation in buyer–supplier relationships: The moderating role of culture

This research investigates buyer–supplier relationships in international markets. Research and practice have shown that buyer–supplier relationships benefit when partners to the relationship exhibit a long-term orientation. The extant literature suggests that a buyer's trust of a supplier and the supplier's performance affect the buyer's long-term orientation toward the relationship. We propose that the relative effects of trust and performance on long-term orientation are moderated by culture – specifically the individualism/collectivism dimension. Hypotheses are tested on data from two individualist and two collectivist cultures, using responses from over 600 purchasing professionals in the United States, Anglophone Canada, Francophone Canada and Mexico. Taken together, empirical findings suggest that cultural differences warrant consideration in developing successful purchasing strategies.     

The simple analytics of optimal growth with illegal migrants: A clarification

This paper reexamines the welfare effects of illegal immigration studied by Hazari and Sgro [The simple analytics of optimal growth with illegal migrants. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 28(1) 141–151]. In contrast to their negative conclusion, we obtain ambiguous welfare prediction which is due to the presence of two opposing effects at work: a positive exploitation effect and a negative intertemporal effect. With Cobb–Douglas production technology, we show that per capita domestic consumption rises in the presence of illegal migration.     

The decision to ‘bid for business’: Municipal behavior in granting property tax abatements

We investigate the timing of local economic development incentive offers by estimating duration models of the time to adoption of the first manufacturing property tax abatement offered by a municipal government. The effects of municipal characteristics, incentive prevalence measures, and fiscal stress indicators on the duration of non-abatement regimes are investigated using data for 112 municipalities in metropolitan Detroit during 1974–1992. Median household income and the local property tax price of local public services are found to affect the hazard rates. Most importantly, there is evidence of positive duration dependence, or an emulation effect, with first-time abatement offers.     

Demand for World Bank lending

This paper attempts to quantify the relevance of crisis lending in IBRD and IDA lending commitments. It finds that IBRD and IDA lending commitments are positively related to an increase in debt service payments and inversely related to the level of reserves of the borrowing country. These two variables explain a large part of the variation in IBRD and IDA lending commitments – adjustment lending as well as project lending – not only since the Asian crisis, but also during tranquil times over the last two decades. This finding implies that bridging the financing gap has been an important factor affecting developing countries’ decision to seek financial help from the Bank. While borrowing for servicing debt during a crisis is consistent with the World Bank's goal of poverty reduction and assisting countries without access to financial markets, such borrowing during tranquil times may conflict with these goals.     

Errors, robustness, and the fourth quadrant

The paper presents evidence that econometric techniques based on variance–L² norm–are flawed and do not replicate. The result is un-computability of the role of tail events. The paper proposes a methodology to calibrate decisions to the degree (and computability) of forecast error. It classifies decision payoffs in two types: simple (true/false or binary) and complex (higher moments); and randomness into type-1 (thin tails) and type-2 (true fat tails), and shows the errors for the estimation of small probability payoffs for type 2 randomness. The fourth quadrant is where payoffs are complex with type-2 randomness. We propose solutions to mitigate the effect of the fourth quadrant, based on the nature of complex systems.     

Spatial mobility and competition for jobs: Some theory and evidence for Western Germany

This paper sheds new light on the role of regional labor market conditions for regional mobility. We study competition for vacant jobs along two dimensions – between employed and unemployed job searchers, and between resident and non-resident job searchers – within a simple matching framework. Evidence from estimating regional matching functions with data on job searchers disaggregated by previous employment status and regional provenance indicates that competition for jobs along both dimensions affects hiring. Tests of the theoretical predictions suggest that labor market conditions do determine regional mobility, but the countervailing effects of competition between employed and unemployed dilute mobility effects.     

Forecasting ultimate resource recovery

This paper considers Hubbert's model for forecasting ultimate resource recovery and its extensions by Kaufmann (1991, Resources and Energy 13, 111–127) and Cleveland and Kaufmann (1991, Energy Journal 12, 17–46). The emphasis of the paper is on econometric and forecasting issues, and it discusses alternative methods of estimating Hubbert's model. Using data on oil production in the U.S. lower 48 states, the paper reports the results of estimating the various specifications of the model and its extensions by the maximum-likelihood method, and provides the implied estimates for ultimate resource recovery and their associated standard errors. When economic factors are taken into account the estimates of ultimate resource recovery become state-dependent, and we find that in this case the estimates are higher than those obtained from the various specifications of Hubbert's original model. Although the accuracy of the estimates of ultimate recoverable reserves cannot be evaluated before oil reserves are actually exhausted, we examine how the various models estimated over the periods 1926–1985 and 1948–1985 perform in predicting oil production over the 1986–1990 period.     

A multi-level model for studying the context and impact of work–family policies and culture in organizations

The purpose of this paper was to provide an integrative multi-level framework that could help scholars study the impact of work–family policies on individual employees as well as assist practitioners in making informed decisions regarding the adoption, design, implementation, and allowance of these policies. This multi-level model illustrates the various macro- and mesolevel factors that may influence individual perceptions (i.e., equity perceptions, negotiation power, sense of entitlement) regarding work–family policies. By providing such a model, a common language may be developed for researchers from various disciplines studying this issue and better insight into the various linkages that are involved. Additionally, the framework can provide HR practitioners with a deeper understanding of the contextual factors that may influence the effectiveness of work–family policies in their organizations.     

Business cycle non‐linearities in UK consumption and production

This paper develops non‐linear smooth transition autoregressive (STAR) models with two additive smooth transition components to capture the business cycle characteristics of UK real consumers' expenditure and industrial production. The results indicate consumption has essentially two business cycle regimes: recession and expansion. Industrial production, however, is characterized by the three regimes of recession, normal growth and high growth. The transitions describing recovery from recession are very similar for the two variables. Stochastic simulations illustrate the dynamic responses of these models and emphasize that they are locally linear. Our results also indicate that the two‐transition STAR models have some forecast advantages over other specifications for periods of contraction. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Longitudinal Surveys and the Study of Occupational Mobility: Panel and Retrospective Design in Comparison

The paper discusses the extent to which longitudinal surveys are able to expose occupational mobility and the dynamics of these processes. It compares two survey designs: the repeated panel design and the retrospective life history design. This comparison details the strength and the weaknesses of the two designs. The paper particularly calls attention to the unique features of the two designs with respect to the exploration of occupational mobility – pointing to three general problems of quantitative social research: item-nonresponse, design effects of single and multi-measurement occasion, and the strong assumption that researchers and respondents share the same definition of concepts. The main conclusion of the paper is that both designs offer unique opportunities to study social change, yet the differences between the two should be kept in mind when choosing the data set for particular research questions.     

Investment mobilization and capacity completion in the Chinese and Soviet economies

This paper examines the relationship between the mobilization of resources into capital projects and the completion of new productive capacity in two shortage economies—China and the USSR. Causes of delayed commissioning of new capacity, and the role of unfinished construction in the investment cycle, are analysed. Annual data over a long period are presented for both economies—for the USSR 1928–37 and 1950–83, and for China 1950–82. Changes over time in the relationship between investment mobilization and capacity completion are considered, along with differences and similarities between the records of the two economies under investigation.Department of Economics, University of Warwick. I am grateful for helpful advice and comments received from Julian Cooper and Philip Hanson of the Centre for Russian and East European Studies, University of Birmingham; from Bob Lewis, Department of Economic History, University of Exeter; from Raja Junankar of the Institute of Employment Research, David Rees of the Department of Economics and colleagues of the Development Economics Research Centre seminar, University of Warwick; and from an anonymous referee.     

A behavioral study of supply manager decision-making: Factors influencing make versus buy evaluation

This paper investigates behavioral factors influencing a supply manager's decision to insource or outsource the manufacture of a product component. To do so we posit a theoretical framework that integrates the heretofore distinct operational make–buy literature and the behavioral decision-making literature. Within the framework three factors influencing the make–buy decision are brought into account: the decision-maker's perception of supply risk or “strategic vulnerability”, the degree of core competency represented by the product component under consideration and the formality of the information about supply alternatives. The results of a controlled experimental survey show that: strategic vulnerability and core competency do influence the make–buy decision, strategic vulnerability has greater influence than core competency and information formality moderates the make–buy decision when the strategic vulnerability and core competency conditions are mixed. The practical implications of these results include the notion that management can ensure a more rational make–buy decision if they understand the biases that influence the decision and point these biases out to the decision maker.