THE DEMAND FOR GASOLINE: EVIDENCE FROM HOUSEHOLD SURVEY DATA

In this paper we investigate the demand for gasoline in Canada using recent annual expenditure data from the Canadian Survey of Household Spending, over a 13‐year period from 1997 to 2009, on three expenditure categories in the transportation sector: gasoline, local transportation, and intercity transportation. In doing so, we use three of the most widely used locally flexible functional forms, the Almost Ideal Demand System (AIDS) of Deaton and Muellbauer (1980), the quadratic AIDS (QUAIDS) of Banks et al. (1997)—an extension of the simple AIDS model that can generate quadratic Engel curves—and the Minflex Laurent model of Barnett (1983), which can also generate quadratic Engel curves. We pay explicit attention to economic regularity, argue that unless regularity is attained by luck, flexible functional forms should always be estimated subject to regularity as suggested by Barnett (2002), and impose local curvature to produce inference consistent with neoclassical microeconomic theory. Our findings indicate that the curvature‐constrained Minflex Laurent model is the only model that is able to provide theoretically consistent estimates of the Canadian demand for gasoline. Our estimates show that the own‐price elasticity for gasoline demand in Canada is between ? 0.738 and ? 0.570 —less elastic than previously reported in the literature. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimation of collective household models with Engel curves

The structural consumer demand methods used to estimate the parameters of collective household models are typically either very restrictive and easy to implement or very general and difficult to estimate. In this paper, we provide a middle ground. We adapt the very general framework of [Browning, M., Chiappori, P.A., Lewbel, A., 2004. Estimating Consumption Economies of Scale, Adult Equivalence Scales, and Household Bargaining Power, Boston College Working Papers in Economics 588] by adding a simple restriction that recasts the empirical model from a highly nonlinear demand system with price variation to a slightly nonlinear Engel curve system. Our restriction has an interpretation in terms of the behaviour of household scale economies and is testable. Our method identifies the levels of (not just changes in) household resource shares, and a variant of equivalence scales called indifference scales. We apply our methodology to Canadian expenditure data.     

A neural network demand system with heteroskedastic errors

In this paper we consider estimation of demand systems with flexible functional forms, allowing an error term with a general conditional heteroskedasticity function that depends on observed covariates, such as demographic variables. We propose a general model that can be estimated either by quasi-maximum likelihood (in the case of exogenous regressors) or generalized method of moments (GMM) if the covariates are endogenous. The specification proposed in the paper nests several demand functions in the literature and the results can be applied to the recently proposed Exact Affine Stone Index (EASI) demand system of [Lewbel, A., Pendakur, K., 2008. Tricks with Hicks: The EASI implicit Marshallian demand system for unobserved heterogeneity and flexible Engel curves. American Economic Review (in press)]. Furthermore, flexible nonlinear expenditure elasticities can be estimated.     

Asymmetric Price Adjustments in Airlines

This paper uses a unique daily time series data set to investigate the asymmetric response of airline prices to capacity costs driven by demand fluctuations. We use a Markov regime‐switching model with time‐varying transition probabilities to capture the time variation in the response. The results show strong evidence of asymmetric price adjustments: positive cost shifts have a large positive effect, whereas negative cost shifts have no effect. The asymmetry is also explained by summer travel but not by the size of cost shifts. The findings show the importance of consumer heterogeneity and capacity constraints as a source of asymmetric responses. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effects of the gender of children on expenditure patterns in rural China: a semiparametric analysis

We analyse expenditure patterns for rural China, focusing on differences between families with boys and girls. The sample includes more than 5000 nuclear families from 19 Chinese provinces. Following the existing literature, we estimate Engel curves for food and for alcohol, a typical adult good. We use a flexible, partially linear specification and allow for endogeneity of total expenditures. The results are similar to those of other studies, not providing much evidence of gender differentials. We then focus on the decision to send a child to school and on the budget share spent on educational goods. Using both parametric and semiparametric estimates, we find evidence that boys are more often sent to school and that expenditures on a boy that goes to school are larger than for a school‐going girl of the same age. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of Changes in Consumer Preferences on Sectoral Labour Reallocation: Evidence from the Italian Economy

This study empirically investigates the impact of changes in consumer preferences on labour reallocation across the Italian economic sectors. For this purpose, coherent sectoral time series of consumer preferences and labour units are constructed from Italian national accounts and consumption expenditure data. In line with recent firm‐level evidence, empirical findings indicate a positive and significant effect of preference changes on labour reallocation. Results are robust to several econometric specifications, different procedures to elicit preference changes, as well as the introduction of time‐varying price coefficient and sector‐specific effects of total consumption expenditure.     

A Semi‐Parametric Analysis of Two‐Sided Markets: An Application to the Local Daily Newspapers in the USA

This paper considers an empirical semiparametric model for two‐sided markets. Contrary to existing empirical literature on two‐sided markets, we specify network effects and probability distribution functions of net benefits of the two sides nonparametrically. We then estimate the model by nonparametric instrumental variables regression for local daily newspapers from the USA. We show that semiparametric specification is supported by the data and the network effects are neither linear nor monotonic. With a numerical illustration we demonstrate that the mark‐up of the newspaper on each side changes drastically with the nonlinearly specified network effects from the case with linear network effects. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Estimating Engel curves under unit and item nonresponse

This paper estimates food Engel curves using data from the first wave of the Survey on Health, Aging and Retirement in Europe (SHARE). Our statistical model simultaneously takes into account selectivity due to unit and item nonresponse, endogeneity problems, and issues related to flexible specification of the relationship of interest. We estimate both parametric and semiparametric specifications of the model. The parametric specification assumes that the unobservables in the model follow a multivariate Gaussian distribution, while the semiparametric specification avoids distributional assumptions about the unobservables. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Constructing the true cost of living index from the Engel curves of the PIGLOG model

This paper investigates the properties of the Tornqvist index and shows how this can be used to construct a true cost of living index from a simple system of Engel curves. This allows the substitution bias inherent in a fixed weight index to be estimated using the maximum degree of commodity disaggregation available in the data. Furthermore the proposed index can be decomposed to show the impact of inflation on households with different expenditure levels and household chararacteristics. An empirical application of the method is given, using data on UK food expenditures.     

Sieve estimation of panel data models with cross section dependence

In this paper we consider the problem of estimating semiparametric panel data models with cross section dependence, where the individual-specific regressors enter the model nonparametrically whereas the common factors enter the model linearly. We consider both heterogeneous and homogeneous regression relationships when both the time and cross-section dimensions are large. We propose sieve estimators for the nonparametric regression functions by extending Pesaran’s (2006) common correlated effect (CCE) estimator to our semiparametric framework. Asymptotic normal distributions for the proposed estimators are derived and asymptotic variance estimators are provided. Monte Carlo simulations indicate that our estimators perform well in finite samples.     

Estimating a generalized correlation coefficient for a generalized bivariate probit model

In this paper we consider semiparametric estimation of a generalized correlation coefficient in a generalized bivariate probit model. The generalized correlation coefficient provides a simple summary statistic measuring the relationship between the two binary decision processes in a general framework. Our semiparametric estimation procedure consists of two steps, combining semiparametric estimators for univariate binary choice models with the method of maximum likelihood for the bivariate probit model with nonparametrically generated regressors. The estimator is shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal. The estimator performs well in our simulation study.     

COMPETITIVENESS WITHIN THE EURO AREA: THE PROBLEM THAT STILL NEEDS TO BE SOLVED

Unsustainable public debt, low competitiveness and high current account deficits are major problems for the so‐called PIIGS countries. These countries experienced consumer price and wage inflation above the euro area average in the first decade of the euro, basically fuelled by buoyant capital inflows. The resulting real appreciation against low‐inflation countries led to a deterioration in their competitiveness, but rigid labour markets now prevent a quick market‐based readjustment of real wages to the changed situation. Thus, both public expenditure cuts and structural labour market reforms are urgent to reduce the likelihood of a euro area break‐up.     

Semiparametric bounds on treatment effects

We present a variety of semiparametric models that produce bounds on the average causal effect of a binary treatment on a binary outcome. The semiparametric assumptions exploit variation in observable covariates to narrow the bounds. In our main model, the outcome is determined by a generalized linear model, but the treatment may be arbitrarily endogenous. Our bounding strategy does not require the existence of an instrument, but incorporating an instrument narrows the bounds. The bounds are further improved by combining the semiparametric model with the joint threshold-crossing assumption of Shaikh and Vytlacil (2005).     

Forecasting Consumption: the Role of Consumer Confidence in Real Time with many Predictors

We study the role of consumer confidence in forecasting real personal consumption expenditure, and contribute to the extant literature in three substantive ways. First, we re‐examine existing empirical models of consumption and consumer confidence, not only at the quarterly frequency, but using monthly data as well. Second, we employ real‐time data in addition to commonly used revised vintages. Third, we investigate the role of consumer confidence in a rich information context. We produce forecasts of consumption expenditures with and without consumer confidence measures using a dynamic factor model and a large, real‐time, jagged‐edge dataset. In a robust way, we establish the important role of confidence surveys in improving the accuracy of consumption forecasts, manifesting primarily through the services component. During the recession of 2007–2009, sentiment is found to have a more pervasive effect on all components of aggregate consumption: durables, non‐durables and services. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The random coefficients logit model is identified

The random coefficients multinomial choice logit model, also known as the mixed logit, has been widely used in empirical choice analysis for the last thirty years. We prove that the distribution of random coefficients in the multinomial logit model is nonparametrically identified. Our approach requires variation in product characteristics only locally and does not rely on the special regressors with large supports used in related papers. One of our two identification arguments is constructive. Both approaches may be applied to other choice models with random coefficients.     

The Engel curve for alcohol and the rank of demand systems

This paper shows that the quadratic shape of the Engel curve for alcohol is induced by preference heterogeneity between drinkers and abstainers in a Japanese data set. With controlling the heterogeneity, it is shown that the Engel curve for alcohol slopes monotonically downwards for drinkers, and that the probability of being a drinker is an increasing function of total expenditure. These two relationships generate a quadratic shape for the Engel curve for alcohol. Other goods in this data set appear to have nearly linear Engel curves, so if the alcohol Engel curve for drinkers is also linear, then after controlling for this preference heterogeneity the rank of this demand system would be two. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The time varying effect of oil price shocks on euro-area exports

In this paper we provide novel evidence on changes in the relationship between the real price of oil and real exports in the euro area. By combining robust predictions on the sign of the impulse responses obtained from a theoretical model with restrictions on the slope of the oil demand and oil supply curves, we identify oil supply and foreign productivity shocks in a time varying VAR with stochastic volatility. We find that from the 1980s onwards the relationship between oil prices and euro area exports has become less negative conditional on oil supply shortfalls and more positive conditional on foreign productivity shocks. Using the theoretical model we show that our empirical findings can be accounted for by (i) stronger trade relationship between the euro area and emerging economies (ii) a decrease in the share of oil in production and (iii) increased competitive pressures in the product market.     

Macroeconomic forecasting and structural change

The aim of this paper is to assess whether modeling structural change can help improving the accuracy of macroeconomic forecasts. We conduct a simulated real‐time out‐of‐sample exercise using a time‐varying coefficients vector autoregression (VAR) with stochastic volatility to predict the inflation rate, unemployment rate and interest rate in the USA. The model generates accurate predictions for the three variables. In particular, the forecasts of inflation are much more accurate than those obtained with any other competing model, including fixed coefficients VARs, time‐varying autoregressions and the naïve random walk model. The results hold true also after the mid 1980s, a period in which forecasting inflation was particularly hard. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Penalized Quantile Regression with Semiparametric Correlated Effects: An Application with Heterogeneous Preferences

This paper proposes new ?₁‐penalized quantile regression estimators for panel data, which explicitly allows for individual heterogeneity associated with covariates. Existing fixed‐effects estimators can potentially suffer from three limitations which are overcome by the proposed approach: (i) incidental parameters bias in nonlinear models with large N and small T ; (ii) lack of efficiency; and (iii) inability to estimate the effects of time‐invariant regressors. We conduct Monte Carlo simulations to assess the small‐sample performance of the new estimators and provide comparisons of new and existing penalized estimators in terms of quadratic loss. We apply the technique to an empirical example of the estimation of consumer preferences for nutrients from a demand model using a large transaction‐level dataset of household food purchases. We show that preferences for nutrients vary across the conditional distribution of expenditure and across genders, and emphasize the importance of fully capturing consumer heterogeneity in demand modeling. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.