On economic disequilibrium and free lunch

There is a sharp disagreement between mainstream economists and advocates of energy efficiency as regards the potential for free lunches or no regrets policies to cut greenhouse gas emissions. From an economics perspective, the critical question is whether the economic system is — or is not — close to a Pareto-optimum equilibrium state. If so, it follows that most technological systems now in place are optimum, or nearly so, from an economic perspective. If not, there may be many sub-optimal technologies in place, with corresponding opportunities for very high returns on appropriate investments. This paper presents some of the evidence supporting the latter thesis.     

A New Variant of the Winner's Curse in a Coasian Contracting Game

We examine behavior in a Coasian contracting game with incomplete information. Experimental subjects propose contracts, while automaton property right holders or robot players with uncertain preferences respond to those proposals. The most common pattern of proposals observed in these games results in too many agreements and, in some games, payoffs that are stochastically dominated by those resulting from rational proposals (which imply fewer agreements). In this sense, we observe a winner's curse similar to that observed in bidding games under incomplete information, such as the common value auction (Kagel, J.H. and Levin, D. (1986) American Economic Review. 76, 894–920) and the takeover game (Samuelson, W. and Bazerman, M.H. (1985) In Research in Experimental Economics, Vol. 3. JAI Press, Greenwich, pp. 105–137; Ball, S.B., Bazerman, M.H., and Carroll, J.S. (1990) Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes. 48, 1–22; Holt, C. and Sherman, R. (1994) American Economic Review. 84, 642–652). While the naïve model of behavior nicely predicts the winner's curse in those previous bidding games, it does not do so here. Instead, an alternative model we call the guarantor model explains the anomalous behavior best. Hence, we suggest this is a new variant of the winner's curse.     

Measuring the severity of unemployment

A social-welfare (illfare) function framework is applied to compare two demographic groups as to the severity of their unemployment experience. This is based on the assumption that for each individual the disutility of unemployment is an increasing and convex function of spell length. The very concept of spell length and its distribution, however, is not unambiguous. In contrast to previous literature which focuses exclusively on the interrupted spell length in a stock of unemployed, we stress the usefulness of the concept of complete spell length in a cohort of unemployed. We establish an equivalence relationship between second-degree dominance in the cohort and first-degree dominance in the stock. For specific illfare functions the disutilityU(x) when applied to the cohort and the disutilityU(x) when applied to the stock will produce the same value of aggregate welfare (illfare).     

EU Widening and Deepening – Are these goals reconcilable?

The paper examines the compatibility between widening the EU and deepening its integration endeavors, with special emphasis on eastward enlargement. After clarifying the broad nature of the accession negotiations under way, it sketches the most critical obstacles encountered in forging ahead with EU deepening, the problems posed by the ongoing restructuring of the accession candidates, and how deepening and widening necessarily interact. Before concluding with an aside on the relationship between the accession process and the EU's designs on assisting southeastern Europe, the paper briefly reviews where the negotiations stand in mid-2001 and elaborates on what may be in store for the enlargement process in the near term.The opinions expressed here are mine and do not necessarily reflect my employer's.     

Convention, Social Order, and the Two Coordinations

The word coordination has two meanings, and thesemeanings are often conflated. One meaning, associated with ThomasSchelling, is seen in situations like choosing whether to driveon the left or the right; the drivers must coordinate to eachother's behavior. The other meaning, associated with FriedrichHayek, means that a concatenation of activities is arranged soas to produce good results. Along with the Schelling sense ofcoordination comes the notion of convention, such as drivingon the right. Some conventions are consciously designed; othersemerge without design (or are emergent). Along with the Hayeksense of coordination comes the notion of social order. Somesocial orders, such as the skeleton of activities within thefirm or within the hypothetical socialist economy, are consciouslyplanned. Other social orders, such as the catallaxy of the freesociety, function without central planning (or are spontaneous).Distinguishing between the two coordinations (and, in parallelfashion, between convention and social order) clarifies thinkingand resolves some confusions that have arisen in discussionsof coordination and spontaneous order. The key distinctionsare discussed in the context of the thought of, on the one hand,Menger, Schelling, David Lewis, and the recent path-dependencetheorists, and, on the other hand, Smith, Hayek, Polanyi, Coase,and the modern Austrian economists. The paper concludes witha typology that encompasses the several distinctions.     

Convergence and approximation results for non-cooperative Bayesian games: Learning theorems

Summary LetT denote a continuous time horizon and {G ^t :tT} be a net (generalized sequence) of Bayesian games. We show that: (i) if {x ^t : tT} is a net of Bayesian Nash Equilibrium (BNE) strategies for G^t we can extract a subsequence which converges to a limit full information BNE strategy for a one shot limit full information Bayesian game, (ii) If {x ^t : tT} is a net of approximate or _t-BNE strategies for the game G^t we can still extract a subsequence which converges to the one shot limit full information equilibrium BNE strategy, (iii) Given a limit full information BNE strategy of a one shot limit full information Bayesian game, we can find a net of _t-BNE strategies {x ^t : tT} in {G ^t :tT} which converges to the limit full information BNE strategy of the one shot game.We wish to thank Larry Blume, Mark Feldman, Jim Jordan, Charlie Kahn, Stefan Krasa, Gregory Michalopoulos, Wayne Shafer, Bart Taub, and Anne Villamil for several useful discussions. The financial support of the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign Campus Research Board is gratefully acknowledged.     

Incentive compatibility and the quantity-setting competitive firm under demand uncertainty

This paper examines the tie between the popular black box neoclassical quantity-setting firm under demand uncertainty and a firm with a rudimentary but explicit employee relation organizational structure in which workers are offered fixed wages for following management directives. Surprisingly, the quantity-setting firm unambiguously mimics optimal employment relation hiring and work rules when the contract is incentive-compatible ex post. The attitude toward risk is shown to be the key determinant of whether or not the quantity-setting firm replicates the optimal employment relation contract when ex post incentive-compatibility is relaxed.     

Klassische Nationalökonomie gestern und heute

Ohne ZusammenfassungDieser Artikel ist dieungekürzte Fassung des Beitrages Klassische Nationalökonomie des Verfassers zum Staatslexikon (Band IV).     

The “Dorfman Steiner” rule

Conclusion When this research was started, it was guessed that the Dorfman-Steiner rule would lose its relevance in an intertemporal setting. This belief has turned out to be false: along the optimal paths ofp (t) ands (t), and must be equal. The only difference with the Dorfman-Steiner result is that they will be different from unity.The author is chargé de cours at the Faculté Universitaire Catholique de Mons (Belgium). He has greatyl benefited from comments by M. Beuthe and J. J. Lambin.     

Constitutional “Rules” and Intergenerational Fiscal Policy

This paper analyzes the impact of alternative political institutions on sustainable fiscal policies. We study the choice of intergenerational transfers as outcomes of an infinite social security game among successive selfish median voters. Majoritarian systems accord the current median voter maximum fiscal discretion but no direct influence over future policy. This political arrangement sustains, among others, dynamically inefficient transfers and volatile, non-stationary sequences. Constitutional rules award to the minorities veto power over fiscal policy changes proposed by the majority. This unanimity provision is equivalent to partial precommitment. Under constitutional rules, sustainable fiscal policies feature Pareto efficient, non decreasing transfer sequences.     

The Question of “Equilibrium” in Human Action and the Everyday Paradox of Rationality

This paper first specifies how Schütz's analysis of deliberation determines the limits of rationality where individual human action is concerned. This analysis establishes that there is no equilibrium of alternative possibilities before or after deliberation. Next the paper specifies how Schütz's analysis of the typification that makes successful intersubjective action possible leads to the paradox of rationality on the common sense level. Finally, the paper explains how Schütz's analysis of relevance can provide an account for this paradox, and thereby point to an order of human interaction in the absence of equilibrium, all without violating the postulate of subjective interpretation.     

Bankruptcy Reform in Russia: The Case for Creditor Rights in Russia

Russia at the dawn of the 21st century is experiencing a collapsing economy. In a world where healthy economies create and maintain capital, it is critically important that all efforts be made to assure all creditors and especially private direct investors that in the event of debtor-insolvency their business interests are protected. The role of bankruptcy law under a regime of what I call creditor rights is limited. The court system can be used to avoid a creditors's race to grab assets. Whenever the going concern value of a firm is greater than the sum of the assets sold separately a case can be made for a bankruptcy procedure as a way of protecting creditor rights. This paper examines the historical origins of the creditor rights tradition and advocates such a regime for modern Russia. This paper holds that especially with respect to Russia, we would do well to heed John Stuart Mill's advice and support reforms that favor creditors and protect the value of their rights. Those insolvent firms owned and managed by political oligarchs should be cut down, dismembered, and the assets they command transferred to new and more imaginative and solvent groups of managers.     

Kaldorian dynamics in an open economy

In this paper, we formulate a Kaldorian business-cycle model in a small open economy. We consider the possibility of capital mobility, and both the system of fixed exchange rates and that of flexible exchange rates are studied. We investigate how changes of the parameter which represents the degree of capital mobility affect the dynamic characteristics of the model. Some numerical simulations are performed based on the analytical model.     

Public-Choice Analysis of a New International Organization: The International Sea-Bed Authority

The usefulness of the public-choice approach for a better understanding of international organizations can be demonstrated by applying it to the analysis of the structure and functions of a new international organization, the International Sea-Bed Authority, established in 1994, after two decades of negotiations under the auspices of the United Nations, with the aim to control the oceans' mineral resources beyond the limits of national jurisdictions (which have been proclaimed by the U.N. Assembly common heritage of mankind). First, the reasons for establishing this organization, whose basis is the common heritage of mankind nature of ocean resources, are examined under two aspects: 1) definition and protection of property rights; 2) environmental control of sea-bed mining activities. Secondly, the organization's decisionmaking system is presented, including such features as the assembly, council with chamber voting, finance committee with decision by consensus, features that balance the voting power of members and protect those countries that bear the financial responsibility for the budget. Finally, some comments are offered about more general aspects of the theory of international organizations: the bureaucracy (and diplomacy) of these organizations as well as the interdependence among international organizations, which opens the way to forms of international logrolling and makes it advisable for countries not to exit from these organizations, even when they have no primary interest in them.     

Economic and political competition in neoclassical and evolutionary perspective

Neoclassical welfare economics still looms large in the discipline of public choice. Particularly, by constructing analogies of political competition fundamental shortcomings of old neoclassical paradigms found their way into a new theory of political economy. Especially the failure to deal with the problem of limited knowledge and with the role of institutions obscured fundamental differences between political and economic systems of coordination and control. Hence, I propose a non-neoclassical perspective, using Hayekian concepts like competition as a discovery procedure or spontaneous order to develop an alternative agenda for many fields of public choice. I shall first outline a critique of neoclassical equilibrium settings in economics and in similarly constructed models of democracy. Then various properties of economic and political institutions, the competition of ideas and institutional competition among jurisdictions will be discussed in an evolutionary perspective. Not surprisingly, these applications reveal some similarities to central themes of constitutional political economy.     

Entropic irreversibility and uncontrolled technological change in economy and environment

A joint production model representing Spaceship Earth is used to explore at a conceptual level, implications of natural resource depletion and economic waste production for economy-environment change. Ecological change is considered as uncontrolled technological innovation, partially induced through disposal of unwanted surpluses (by-products and wastes from economic activity). These surpluses may accumulate as wastelands, or (more likely) contribute to uncontrolled ecological change. Technologically stationary economy-environment steady-state solutions are contrasted with instability and forced change where either the technologies or the patterns of resource allocation in economic and environmental processes are incompatible with a steady state.Thanks to Charles Perrings, Louis Arnoux, and three anonymous referees. Responsbility for any errors or obscurities in argument is mine alone.     

Individual Decision Making in a Negative Externality Experiment

The experimental treatments analysed in this paper are simple in that there is a unique Nash equilibrium resulting in each player having a dominant strategy. However, the data show quite clearly that subjects do not always choose this strategy. In fact, when this dominant strategy is not a focal outcome it does not even describe the average decision adequately. It is shown that average individual decisions are best described by a decision error model based on a censored distribution as opposed to the truncated regression model which is typically used in similar studies. Moreover it is shown that in the treatments where the dominant strategy is not focal dynamics are important with average subject decisions initially corresponding to the focal outcome and then adjusting towards the Nash prediction. Overall, 66.7% of subjects are consistent with Payoff Maximization, 27.8% are consistent with an alternate preference maximization and 5.6% are random.     

Bemerkungen zur Grenzproduktivitätstheorie

Ohne ZusammenfassungMit 6 TextabbildungenDieser Aufsatz wurde als Koreferat zum Referat von Dr. E. Matzner über Beiträge der Grenzproduktivitätstheorie zur Erklärung der Einkommensverteilung im November 1965 am Institut für höhere Studien und wissenschaftliche Forschung (Ford-Institut), Wien, im Rahmen eines Seminars über Verteilungstheorie von Prof. Dr. O. Morgenstern und DDr. H. Frisch gehalten.     

Market games with differential information and infinite dimensional commodity spaces: The core

Summary We provide an alternative proof of the existence of core allocations in exchange economies with differential information and infinite dimensional commodity spaces. We also identify a critical feature of information sharing rules that ensures nonemptiness of the core. In essence, the only condition we require on the sharing rules is that profitable insider trading be prohibited. In the absence of insider trading, balancedness is guaranteed and core nonemptiness follows.I thank Dan Arce, Erik Balder, Myrna Wooders, and Nicholas Yannelis for helpful comments. This paper is a greatly revised version of my paper entitled. A Variational Problem Arising in Market Games with Differential Information, written in August of 1991.     

Constitutions for Local Collective Action and Institutional Interdependence

Collective action can take place at a plurality of levels. It has to be based on a constitution which defines the basic rules of interaction. Here, we are concerned with the problem of the constitutional setting of bottom-up formal institutions with a club nature. The pressure to improve the efficiency of services pushes local administrations to co-ordinate to produce public goods. This process has stimulated the birth of different forms of agencies or private companies with a club nature. The aim of this paper is to discuss the effects of institutional interdependence on the efficiency of this kind of collective action. In order to shed some light on this problem, the paper first discusses the problem of the relativity of efficiency to the institutional setting. A framework of analysis is then discussed to identify the main factors affecting collective action. Finally some evidence will be provided by a comparative institutional analysis performed on some case studies concerning local associational forms among communes in north-eastern Italy.