数字金融、家庭财富与共同富裕

文章使用2017年中国家庭金融调查(CHFS)数据,实证研究了数字金融对家庭财富积累、财富不平等的影响。研究发现:(1)在考虑了内生性问题的影响后,数字金融能够显著促进家庭财富积累,经过使用多种方法进行稳健性检验,该结论依然成立。(2)创业和配置风险金融资产是数字金融影响家庭财富的重要渠道。(3)财富规模越小的家庭,使用数字金融产生的创富作用越大,并且老年人、低教育程度、低收入水平、农业户口群体家庭和农村居民家庭使用数字金融能够产生更大的创富作用。总的来说,财富是富裕的题中之义,数字金融能够在提升家庭财富总体水平的基础上缓解财富不平等,从而有利于实现共同富裕。文章的研究发现为推动共同富裕提供了政策参考依据。     

城市可持续发展与城市安全体系

城市是人口、产业、财富高度聚集的地区,是现代经济社会活动最集中、最活跃的核心地域,是现代社会生活和生产的主要场所。随着我国城市化水平的逐步提高,城市的规模与数量都在快速增长,城市所聚集的人口和积累的财富使城市的重要性日趋明显,城市的特殊功能使其成为国家防灾、减灾的中心和重点;建立集政策、法规、技术、管理于一体的城市安全系统,对于增强城市安全保障能力,应付意外事故及突发自然灾害,具有重要意义。     

后金融危机时代我国居民家庭金融投资风险及其防范

随着我国国民经济的快速增长和我国居民财富的不断积累,金融资产已经成为居民家庭资产的重要组成部分。但在目前后金融危机时代背景下,受我国金融市场制度不健全、国民投资行为不规范、个人承担风险能力较弱等因素的影响,家庭金融投资无疑包含着较高的风险和存在着较多的问题,因此,本文结合后危机时代背景,针对我国居民家庭金融投资中存在的问题,提出了防范家庭金融投资风险的思路和对策。     

收入差距对我国房地产财富效应的影响

该文使用1999年以来北京、上海、广州和深圳等房地产一线城市不同收入等级居民生活水平的面板数据,运用协整分析法检验收入差距因素对房地产财富效应的影响。实证结果表明,高收入家庭存在正的财富效应,中、低收入家庭表现为负的财富效应,整体表现为负的财富效应。对此,我国必须加快改变目前房地产业在国民经济中的支柱地位,真正控制房价上涨,避免房地产市场带来负面的财富效应。     

参与成本、异质性与股市投资——基于城镇家庭数据的实证分析

本文利用2002年的CHIP数据分析了我国城镇家庭的股市投资行为。考虑到参与成本和异质性,本文使用Heckit模型来考察家庭股票数量与份额的决定。结果表明,家庭股市参与的概率与家庭的总财富水平、户主的收入以及教育水平之间存在显著的正相关关系,与户主的年龄呈倒U型关系。收入、财富水平和年龄对于家庭购买股票的数额也有类似影响;但教育水平的影响有所减弱。而对于股票在家庭总资产或金融资产中的份额,年龄和教育的影响在大部分模型中不显著;财富水平的系数显著为负。     

预防性储蓄的重要性研究:基于中国的经验分析北大核心CSSCI

预防性储蓄是不是引起中国居民储蓄率过高的主要原因还是一个尚未回答的问题。本文基于预防性储蓄理论,提出一个以家庭为决策单位的最优预防性储蓄动态模型,首次利用2005～2009年中国地级城市面板数据对中国城乡居民预防性储蓄进行量化分析,结果发现由于收入不确定性而引起的预防性储蓄至少能够解释城乡居民人均金融财产积累的20％到30％左右,是导致中国城乡居民财富积累的一个重要原因。     

重新认识资本和财富

经济学家董辅礽认为,当资本社会化以后,财富的分配就已经发生了很大的变化。马克思根据他所处时代的情况,在《资本论》第一卷中得出了一个结论:资本的积累一头是财富的积累,另一头是贫困的积累,即随着社会的发展,财富只可能会越来越集中在少数人手中,这个判断在当时是有道理的。但后来随着股份公司的出现,情况发生了变化,私有资本开始逐步“公有化”,并出现了社会资本取代私有资本的趋势。在美国,有近48％的家庭拥有股票,近68％家庭拥有基金。在西方的上市公司中,有的甚至一个公司拥有几十万个股东,这就是资本社会化发展的结果。     

导致城市弱势群体住房困难的政策因素分析

在住房不仅仅满足人们居住需要,甚至成为财富重要象征的今天,那些买不起和租不起房子的城市弱势群体,当属缺乏财富获取和积累能力的群体,或者说正是由于这种能力的缺乏才导致他们的低收入,因而才不具有住房的可支付能力。     

低收入家庭大学生心理问题分析与对策探究

城市低收入群体的出现导致了高校中来自低收入家庭大学生数量的逐年上升。低收入家庭大学生在学习、交往、竞争过程中易出现心理失衡和行为失范等问题,影响其人格发育和健康成长。通过分析城市低收入家庭大学生的心理问题的特殊性及产生根源,探究可采取的相应对策,帮助其完善自我意识的构建,形成健康的心理素质。     

企业财富价值化积累及其双重影响

本文阐述了在虚拟经济条件下企业的价值化积累形成原因,分析了价值化积累对企业财富扩大的双重影响,探讨了其给予我们的启示。指出在全球进入虚拟资本主导的金融经济时代,企业扩大财富的价值化积累方式大大提高了企业的财富水平,同时也带来了不同企业之间、不同社会阶层之间财富的巨大差异。但另一方面,在经济整体发展中,价值化积累的这种双重影响成为拉动企业后继发展的动力来源,也成为我国继续推进改革开放的理论基础。     

How Much Will China Save? Projecting China's National Savings Through 2040*

This paper projects China's national savings through 2040 based on China's national account data, demographic data, and data on rural and urban life‐cycle income and consumption. Our baseline projections show that China's national saving in 2040 will be 16 times the current national saving. The annual growth rate of wealth will decline from 16.3 percent in 2012 to 9.5 percent in 2040. Lowering the growth rate of wealth accumulation to the current rate of return to wealth increases consumption through 2040; lowering the growth rate of wealth further may increase consumption more in the short run, but less in the long run.     

Precautionary Saving by Young Immigrants and Young Natives

This paper uses data from the 1979 Youth Cohort of the National Longitudinal Surveys (NLSY79) to explore the wealth accumulation patterns of younger cohorts as well as immigrants' and natives' precautionary saving in response to income uncertainty. We use two measures of wealth and construct a time-varying, conditional measure of income uncertainty, instead of relying on a constant, unconditional, summary measure of income uncertainty. We use a buffer-stock model of savings, and find that immigrants accumulate less wealth than do natives. Additionally, young natives' wealth accumulation patterns appear more responsive than those of their immigrant counterparts to income uncertainty.     

Housing Wealth, Financial Wealth and Consumption in China

The paper investigates the relationship between changes in asset wealth and the trend movements of household consumption in urban China. Using the vector error correction cointegration model we demonstrate that there is a unique long-run cointegrating relationship between household consumption, disposable income, financial wealth and housing wealth in urban China. We find that housing wealth is the only factor that restores the long-run equilibrium relationship when the cointegrated system is disturbed by an external shock. In addition, our permanent-transitory variance decomposition analysis indicates that nearly all variance in the movement of consumption is permanent, supporting the classical random walk hypothesis of consumption behavior. However, a large proportion of variance in the short-run movements of housing wealth is found to be transitory.     

股票市场和房地产市场财富效应比较研究:2001～2010年

基于财富效应理论,利用我国2001~2010年的上证综合指数、房地产价格指数、城镇居民收入、城镇居民储蓄和居民消费的季度数据建立ECM模型。模型结果表明:房地产市场是扩张的财富效应,股票市场是收缩的财富效应;房地产资产的财富效应大于股票资产的财富效应。最后,根据我国城镇居民资产与消费现状进行原因探究,并提出相关建议。     

Consumption,financial wealth and labor income in Korea

By examining the relationship between consumption, financial wealth and labor income in Korea, this paper presents three key findings. First, we find evidence that Korean households hold a larger proportion of their wealth in human capital instead of financial wealth, compared to households in other countries. Potentially, this finding appears consistent with Koreans’ enthusiasm for human development through education despite low government funding. Another important finding is that only financial wealth fluctuations contain a large portion of temporary components. Hence, financial wealth is mainly responsible for adjustments to restore the long-run relationship between consumption, financial wealth and labor income during the examined period. Third, and perhaps most interestingly, this paper finds that before the 1997 Asian financial crisis, households in Korea had difficulty smoothing their consumption over time. This finding may be at least partly attributable to households’ limited access to bank loans and their low level of financial wealth accumulation prior to the crisis. In contrast, we find little evidence that households’ consumption behavior has changed during the recent global financial crisis.     

居民收入、心理预期及其商品房价格波动

选取不同收入水平城镇居民1998～2009年的收入、消费面板数据,考察房价波动对收入和消费的影响,引入宏观经济和房屋抵押效应控制变量,利用房屋租赁价格构造房屋销售价格的工具变量进行实证研究。结果表明:房价波动下城镇居民人均可支配收入与消费间存在必然的因果关系,不同收入水平的城镇居民存在明显的消费差异。房价上涨对所有收入水平城镇居民的消费均有挤出效应,房屋财富效应则不明显,当期可支配收入是决定城镇居民房地产消费的最重要因素。     

Informal settlement upgrading,assets and poverty alleviation: Evidence from longitudinal research in South Africa

This paper investigates the relationship between housing as an asset and the accumulation of other assets. Using data from a longitudinal research project stretching over nearly 25 years, we have found that besides actual income, there have also been improvements in self-perceived wealth ranking, asset holding, housing size, infrastructure access and human capital. Not all households have however benefited or been found to be better off. We have found that those households who had settled in Freedom Square after 1994 were indeed better off than the earlier settlers. Asset building is a slow process, one driven by stability (accessing urban land and secure tenure), finding an address, accessing education and finding work or remaining employed (though not necessarily in this particular sequence). Contrary to what the Department of Human Settlements suggests, we have found little evidence that informal settlement dwellers build assets by means of the secondary housing market.     

Losing the future: Household wealth from urban housing demolition and children's human capital in China

Some literature observes the negative but not very significant effect of household wealth growth on children's educational outcomes. This surprising finding is not easily reconciled with the traditional explanation that relaxed economic constraints caused by wealth growth can promote human capital accumulation. This paper proposes an alternative explanation for the causal relationship between wealth growth and human capital, which could be negative: individuals tend to reduce human capital investment following the decline in their labor supply induced by wealth growth, given that investing in human capital is mainly for employment competitiveness. This explanation is supported by evidence from the case of urban housing demolition in China, in which affected households could obtain substantial wealth growth by considerable demolition compensation thanks to the real estate boom in China. Specifically, using two nationally representative datasets, we find that Chinese households that have experienced demolition relatively have more wealth, less labor supply, lower propensity to accumulate children's human capital, and consequently, have children with lower educational achievement. These results suggest that China's economy may be losing its momentum because of the decline in labor supply and human capital accumulation brought about by the ongoing large-scale urban housing demolition.     

FDI的流入必然会扩大城乡收入差距吗?

本文在理论分析FDI如何影响城乡收入差距基础上,基于1992～2007年间省级面板数据的估计结果显示:FDI的流入能够抑制城乡收入差距的扩大趋势,此外FDI还是缩小城乡收入差距的内生性变量。在控制变量中,政府财政支出是扩大城乡收入差距的重要因素,而经济增长和物质资本积累却能够显著地缩小城乡收入差距,人力资本积累和对外开放程度对城乡收入差距的影响却不显著。