Prospect theory and risk appetite: an application to traders’ strategies in the financial market

According to behavioral finance theories, in this article we develop a dynamic model with heterogeneous traders, where the asset price is determined by the interaction among four different groups of agents: trend reversers, trend followers, risk averters and risk seekers. The main purpose of the study is centered on modeling and testing how the market efficiency changes along with the changes of agent’s behavior preference without exogenous influence. Combining with the assumption of risk appetite and prospect theory, focusing on analyzing the rules for selecting strategies, we establish a more reliable and comprehensive dynamic mechanism. In particular, our study suggests that diversified trading strategies will help to realize market efficiency.     

Sharing Wealth: Evidence from Financial Ratios in Spain

Firms are managed on the basis of relationships between mutually involved groups, not only because of market forces, but also due to the influence that each group can exert over distribution decisions at a given moment in time. On the basis of a value added statement, it is possible to analyse the ability a firm has to reward all agents and to consider how the residual income is to be distributed. In this paper we set out to establish the tensions that arise between productive agents in the distribution of generated wealth. We carry out a time analysis of the movements between relationships that provide information on the distribution of that wealth, using data drawn from the Spanish Transport Equipment Manufacturing Industry. We propose a new multivariate dynamic linear model that is capable of analysing the joint evolution of the value added distribution ratios, with our particular objective being to throw light on the factors underlying this evolution. This analysis results in one single factor that explains 92.88 per cent of the total variation present in the residuals of the model.     

Assessing Ricardian equivalence for the New Member States: Does debt-neutrality matter?

Using a structural model based on dynamic optimizing agents, we empirically test the Ricardian equivalence proposition (REP) for 11 New EU-Member States (NMS). We extend the basic model by including the government budget constraint, thus being able to evaluate whether individuals take the evolution of public debt into account. In the basic setting we cannot reject the validity of the REP for four NMS, in the extended model the relevance of the REP changes for six countries, implying that the development of government debt and long-term sustainability of public finances matters with regard to the validity of the REP.     

Information flows and crashes in dynamic social networks

We develop a dynamic model of information transmission and aggregation in social networks in which continued membership in the network is contingent on the accuracy of opinions. Agents have opinions about a state of the world and form links to others in a directed fashion probabilistically. Agents update their opinions by averaging those of their connections, weighted by how long their connections have been in the system. Agents survive or die based on how far their opinions are from the true state. In contrast to the results in the extant literature on DeGroot learning, we show through simulations that for some parameterizations the model cycles stochastically between periods of high connectivity, in which agents arrive at a consensus opinion close to the state, and periods of low connectivity, in which agents’ opinions are widely dispersed.

     

The Union-Buster’s Toolkit

Anti-union campaigns conducted by specialists are widely employed and generally successful. Although they have been described in some detail, there has been little analysis as to how they are able to persuade workers to vote against their interests. This study proposes a model of the anti-union campaign in which different personality types gravitate into one of three camps: union supporters, union opponents, and swing voters. Anti-union messages evoke different reactions from each and are intended to drive a wedge between swing voters and union supporters. This model suggests several ways unions could make their campaigns more effective by taking personality differences into account.     

Exploring tax evasion in the context of political uncertainty

We present a model of agents facing the uncertainty of two future forms of government who are able to insure against this uncertainty by hiding funds from taxation. In order to choose whether or not to hide funds from taxation, agents need to know policy choices that each government would make should it come to power. But each government, before it could make its decision, would need to know the choices of the agents who would, for example, produce tax revenues. This informational tension is resolved endogenously. We derive the resulting level of tax evasion in society and the optimal choices made by the potential governments. We examine how changes in governmental structure would affect the level of tax evasion, and how that, in turn, would affect a particular form of capital flight.     

Social distance,heterogeneity and social interactions

A crucial ingredient in social interaction models is the structure of peer groups, which link individuals with similar characteristics. We propose and study a dynamic binary choice model with social interactions in which heterogeneity of peer group effects is modeled introducing diversity in individual characteristics and linking pairwise influences to a social distance between individuals. Our framework allows for mimetic as well as anti-mimetic interactions and a heterogeneous structure of peer groups across individuals. Dynamic equilibria are studied in the limit when the number of agents is large. We show that the model exhibits multiple equilibria resulting from conflicts between various group pressures the individuals are subjected to. We study in particular the correlation in the population at equilibrium between the characteristics of the agents and their decisions: this quantity has an interesting empirical interpretation and solves a simple analytical equation when the number of agents is large. Finally we discuss the empirical content of the model and present a consistent estimator for the parameter describing which is consistent for any typical population regardless of the structure of individual characteristics.     

Microfoundations of dynamic capabilities: Insights from circular economy business cases

Circular economy is a key strategy to achieve corporate sustainability. However, so far, most firms are unable to translate the concept of circular economy into their corporate strategies, business models, and operations. Some scholars have argued that firms need to develop new (and dynamic) capabilities for circular economy implementation. Yet there is a little discussion on how firms can develop such capabilities. Notably, there is a paucity of research on specific skills, processes, and organizational activities (microfoundations of dynamic capabilities) that may facilitate circular economy implementation. To address this knowledge gap, using a multiple‐case studies approach, we explore microfoundations of dynamic capabilities in successful circular economy business cases. Our findings indicate that dynamic capabilities positively contribute to circular economy implementation. Our case studies show that case firms identified circular economy opportunities by using four microfoundations of sensing capability. Further, case firms acted on the identified opportunities by using simultaneously three microfoundations of seizing capability and four microfoundations of reconfiguring capability. This paper contributes to the literature on the relations between dynamic capabilities and corporate sustainability by providing insights on how sensing, seizing, and reconfiguring dynamic capabilities act in successful operationalization of circular economy strategies.     

The implications of financial frictions and imperfect knowledge in the estimated DSGE model of the U.S. economy

In this paper, I study how alternative assumptions about expectation formation can modify the implications of financial frictions for the real economy. I incorporate a financial accelerator mechanism into a version of the Smets and Wouters (2007) DSGE framework and explore the properties of the model assuming, on the one hand, complete rationality of expectations and, alternatively, several learning algorithms that differ in terms of the information set used by agents to produce the forecasts. I show that the implications of the financial accelerator for the business cycle may vary depending on the approach to modeling the expectations. The results suggest that the learning scheme based on small forecasting functions is able to amplify the effects of financial frictions relative to the model with Rational Expectations. Specifically, I show that the dynamics of real variables under learning is driven to a significant extent by the time variation of agents’ beliefs about financial sector variables. During periods when agents perceive asset prices as being relatively more persistent, financial shocks lead to more pronounced macroeconomic outcomes. The amplification effect rises as financial frictions become more severe. At the same time, a learning specification in which agents use more information to generate predictions produces very different asset price and investment dynamics. In such a framework, learning cannot significantly alter the real effects of financial frictions implied by the Rational Expectations model.     

The impact of sports ethics of professional baseball player to the development of sports industry in Taiwan

Once countries develop economically to a certain degree, they typically develop sports industries to further improve the welfare of their citizens and to stimulate further economic development. The successful development of sports industries, however, is affected by the impact of many environmental factors. The Enron scandal has caused ethical topics to become a subject of worldwide focus. This paper studies Taiwanese professional baseball to examine how ethical factors impact the survival and development of baseball teams. In reality, the operation of professional baseball is primarily affected by the impact of the ethical views of players as well as cultural environmental factors. These factors interact to form a complex and dynamic system. This study uses system dynamics to examine the systemic structure of the development of Taiwanese professional baseball. We present a dynamic model for the development of professional baseball and examine the impact of sports ethics and societal gambling trends on the development of professional baseball in Taiwan, and then discuss relevant topics.     

Episodic and Systemic Power in the Transformation of Professional Service Firms

We examine the roles of episodic and systemic forms of power in radical organizational change. Drawing on a study of three attempted transformations in professional service firms from traditional professional partnerships into managed professional businesses – one relatively complete and two incomplete – we identify two key mechanisms that link episodic and systemic forms of power and show how those mechanisms affect the likelihood that organizations will be able to successfully undergo radical change. We find that episodic power is able to initiate and energize radical change when it represents a significant break from traditional authority structures and is legitimated through appeals to traditional organizational values. We find that systemic power is able to institutionalize radical change when the systems associated with it are legitimated by the skilled use of language by key actors and then left to operate independently by those actors. By articulating the specific mechanisms that link episodic and systemic power, our study provides a more complete model of the role of power in radical change, enabling better prediction of the likelihood of successful transformation and a fuller theoretical explanation of change outcomes.     

Global recessions as a cascade phenomenon with interacting agents

This paper examines global recessions as a cascade phenomenon. In other words, how recessions arising within one or more countries might percolate across a network of connected economies. An agent based model is set up in which the agents are Western economies. A country has a probability of entering recession in any given year and one of emerging from it the next. In addition, the agents have a threshold propensity, which varies across time, to import a recession from the agents most closely connected to them. The agents are connected on a network, and an agent’s neighbours at any time are either in (state 1) or out (state 0) of recession. If the weighted sum exceeds the threshold, the agent also goes into recession. Annual real GDP growth for 17 Western countries 1871–2006 is used as the data set. The model is able to replicate three key features of the statistical distribution of recessions: the distribution of the number of countries in recession in any given year, the duration of recessions within the individual countries, and the distribution of ‘wait time’ between recessions i.e. the number of years between them. The network structure is important for the interacting agents to replicate the stylised facts. The country-specific probabilities of entering and emerging from recession by themselves give results which are by no means as well matched to the actual data. We are grateful to an anonymous referee for some extremely helpful comments.     

动态能力视角下的商业银行战略转型与经营绩效关系的理论与实证研究——以浦发银行为例

动态能力是企业可持续竞争优势的来源,战略转型能力是一种整合、建立和再配置内外部资源的动态能力。为此,本文在构建动态能力与可持续竞争优势的关系模型的基础上,从我国商业银行成功转型会获得财务资源优势的角度出发,设计了衡量商业银行战略转型是否成功的理论分析模型。为验证其模型的客观性,选择中国浦发银行为案例研究对象,在分析研究浦发银行战略转型历程的基础上,运用因子分析法对浦发银行在2001～2009年的不同发展阶段的经营绩效进行分析总结,以验证评价其如何成功地实现战略转型。本文研究发现：企业想要了解其战略转型是否获得了由动态能力决定的持续竞争优势,可借助于衡量商业银行战略转型成功的理论分析模型;正确的战略转型有利于银行提高经营绩效;为此,银行需要继续有效地实施零售业务战略、强化银行内部治理机制改革和现代信息技术网络平台的建设,这是银行获得持续竞争优势的关键。     

Classic rational bubbles and representativeness

The aim of this work is to describe a model of representative bubbles with infinitely lived agents that is accessible to a general audience. In particular, we shall compare this formalization of behavioral bubble dynamics with the classic rational one. The key role of the transversality condition for rational models will be clear, and we will discuss the necessity of its fulfillment when agents are not rational and arbitrageurs are faced with limited arbitrage possibilities. We shall analyze in detail what kind of nonrationality is taken into account and how it triggers bubbly dynamics. It will be plain that representative bubbles can explain the presence of bubbles even when rational models are not able to detect them.     

Asset price and wealth dynamics in a financial market with heterogeneous agents

This paper considers a discrete-time model of a financial market with one risky asset and one risk-free asset, where the asset price and wealth dynamics are determined by the interaction of two groups of agents, fundamentalists and chartists. In each period each group allocates its wealth between the risky asset and the safe asset according to myopic expected utility maximization, but the two groups have heterogeneous beliefs about the price change over the next period: the chartists are trend extrapolators, while the fundamentalists expect that the price will return to the fundamental. We assume that investors’ optimal demand for the risky asset depends on wealth, as a result of CRRA utility. A market maker is assumed to adjust the market price at the end of each trading period, based on excess demand and on changes of the underlying reference price. The model results in a nonlinear discrete-time dynamical system, with growing price and wealth processes, but it is reduced to a stationary system in terms of asset returns and wealth shares of the two groups. It is shown that the long-run market dynamics are highly dependent on the parameters which characterize agents’ behaviour as well as on the initial condition. Moreover, for wide ranges of the parameters a (locally) stable fundamental steady state coexists with a stable ‘non-fundamental’ steady state, or with a stable closed orbit, where only chartists survive in the long run: such cases require the numerical and graphical investigation of the basins of attraction. Other dynamic scenarios include periodic orbits and more complex attractors, where in general both types of agents survive in the long run, with time-varying wealth fractions.     

Mortgage default in an estimated model of the U.S. housing market

This paper models the housing sector, mortgages and endogenous default in a DSGE setting with nominal and real rigidities. We use data for the period 1981–2006 to estimate our model using Bayesian techniques. We analyze how an increase in risk in the mortgage market raises the default rate and spreads to the rest of the economy, creating a recession. In our model two shocks are well suited to replicate the subprime crisis and the Great Recession: the mortgage risk shock and the housing demand shock. Next we use our estimated model to evaluate a policy that reduces the principal of underwater mortgages. This policy is successful in stabilizing the mortgage market and makes all agents better off.     

Learning and coordination with dispersed information

We analyse adaptive learning in a model of incomplete and dispersed information, with externalities and strategic interactions. We build on the framework proposed by Angeletos and Pavan (2007a) and extend it to a dynamic multi-period setting where agents need to learn to coordinate. We derive conditions under which adaptive learning obtains in such setting and show that, when actions are strategic substitutes, the information structure affects the speed of convergence: while more precise private information is beneficial, better public information has negative effects. We also show that adaptive learning dynamics converge to the Bayesian Nash equilibrium, which means that agents can learn to act strategically by relying only on observable (exogenous) information.     

Entrepreneurship and Dynamic Capabilities: A Review,Model and Research Agenda*

abstract The emergent literature on dynamic capabilities and their role in value creation is riddled with inconsistencies, overlapping definitions, and outright contradictions. Yet, the theoretical and practical importance of developing and applying dynamic capabilities to sustain a firm's competitive advantage in complex and volatile external environments has catapulted this issue to the forefront of the research agendas of many scholars. In this paper, we offer a definition of dynamic capabilities, separating them from substantive capabilities as well as from their antecedents and consequences. We also present a set of propositions that outline (1) how substantive capabilities and dynamic capabilities are related to one another, (2) how this relationship is moderated by organizational knowledge and skills, (3) how organizational age affects the speed of utilization of dynamic capabilities and the learning mode used in organizational change, and (4) how organizational knowledge and market dynamism affect the likely value of dynamic capabilities. Our discussion and model help to delineate key differences in the dynamic capabilities that new ventures and established companies have, revealing a key source of strategic heterogeneity between these firms.     

Risk-sharing networks and farsighted stability

Evidence suggests that in developing countries, agents rely on mutual insurance agreements to deal with income or expenditure shocks. This paper analyzes which risk-sharing networks can be sustained in the long run when individuals are farsighted, in the sense that they are able to forecast how other agents would react to their choice of insurance partners. In particular, we study whether the farsightedness of the agents leads to a reduction of the tension between stability and efficiency that arises when individuals are myopic. We find that for extreme values of the cost of establishing a mutual insurance agreement, myopic and farsighted agents form the same risk-sharing networks. For small costs, farsighted agents form efficient networks while myopic agents don’t.     

Stochastic models of resonating markets

This paper describes a way to model a seasonally and irregularly peaking price dynamics, as that originated in commodity and energy markets, using a system of coupled nonlinear stochastic differential equations. The specific case of an electric power market is used to show which microeconomic features this approach is able to model. Critical point analysis is used in a simple way to show how the interaction between dynamic criticality and stochasticity can be used to develop further models, useful to explore more deeply other types of peaking price dynamics.