Trade patterns,unemployment and growth

This paper analyses the implications of a minimum wage in an open economy two-sector model where the effect of growth on trade and unemployment is explicitly determined. The first-best policy is a wage subsidy to all employment while the second-best policy is a production tax cum subsidy. In the absence of policy intervention it is shown that growth in the short run results in decreasing unemployment for the home country if it is specialized in consumption goods or incompletely specialized provided that the minimum wage is binding. If the economy is specialized in investment goods, then unemployment may increase initially but as growth continues the minimum wage no longer remains binding and full employment is restored. In the long run by examining the dynamic interaction between trade and growth it is possible for the economy to be incompletely specialized with unemployment. If the economy specializes in consumption goods, it is possible for the economy to attain full employment.     

Assets,Attributes and Ownership

The notion of full asset ownership is important in economics, for example, in recent work on the boundaries of the firm. Much of this work has been taken up with the issue why it matters who owns an asset. However, recognizing that assets have multiple attributes, and that these may be subject to capture in a world of positive measurement and enforcement costs, implies that the notion of full asset ownership is problematic. New property rights theorists sidestep these issues by implicitly assuming that residual rights of control are perfectly enforced (i.e. full asset ownership obtains). We discuss the notion of property rights and ownership in a setting characterized by positive costs of enforcement, and suggest that in such a setting, the new property rights model is a part of a more overarching perspective, which also includes older contributions to property rights economics.     

Long-lasting bank relationships and growth of firms

A puzzling but consistent result in the empirical literature on banking is that firms with close bank ties do not grow faster than bank-independent firms. In this paper, we reconsider the link between relationship lending and firm growth, distinguishing firms by size and expansion/contraction conditions. The idea is that the beneficial effects of relationship lending on information asymmetries can be compensated by other negative capture, risk, and externality effects which make relational banks reluctant to support long-term growth projects of client firms, and that the strength of these compensating effects varies with firm size and health status. We explore the influence of long-lasting bank relationships on employment and asset growth of a large sample of Italian firms. The main finding is that relationship lending hampers the efforts of small firms to increase their size, while it mitigates the negative growth of troubled, medium–large enterprises.     

Is Fiscal Stimulus a Good Idea?

The results in this paper, using a structural multicountry macroeconometric model, suggest that there is at most a small gain from fiscal stimulus in the form of increased transfer payments or increased tax deductions if the increased debt generated must eventually be paid back. The gain in output and employment on the way up is roughly offset by the loss in output and employment on the way down as the debt from the initial stimulus is paid off. This conclusion is robust to different assumptions about monetary policy. To the extent that there is a gain, the longer one waits to begin paying the debt back the better. Possible caveats regarding the model used are that (1) monetary policy is not powerful enough to keep the economy at full employment, (2) potential output is taken to be exogenous, (3) possible permanent effects on asset prices and animal spirits from a stimulus are not taken into account, and (4) the model does not have the feature that in really bad times the economy might collapse without a stimulus.     

台商投资中国大陆对大陆就业的影响——基于大陆7个省市面板数据的实证分析

选取1996～2006年中国大陆7个台资比较聚集的省市的面板数据,实证考察了台商投资中国大陆对大陆就业的影响.对1996～2006年的整体样本估计结果表明,20世纪90年代中期以来,台资的进入对大陆的就业起到了显著的促进作用.通过分阶段估计发现,1996～2000年期间,台资对大陆就业促进效应是显著的;然而,2001～2006年期间台资对大陆就业的促进效应则不显著.     

供应链模式下制造企业选择供应商的模糊方法

在制造企业的供应链管理中,供应商选择在企业采购中具有重要地位,因此,如何正确选择供应商就成为一个重要课题。本文提出了供应商选择的模糊评价方法,并进行了实例分析,结果显示具有较好的使用价值。     

Overdeterminacy and Endogenous Cycles: Trygve Haavelmo's Business Cycle Model

The econometrician Trygve Haavelmo pursued a research programme in macroeconomic theory that was highly original for its time. We present his macro model for an economy with deregulated financial markets and a policy determined interest rate path. Disequilibria arise in the interface between asset markets and the real economy. A mismatch between the marginal return to capital and investors' required rate generates endogenous switching between recession and full employment regimes. Haavelmo regarded the ‘switching mechanism’ as a substitute for liquidity constraints, and together with his ideas of price dynamics, there is a clear Keynesian and Wicksellian influence on his macroeconomic theorizing.     

资本资产定价扩展模型理论及其发展趋势

组合投资理论自从马柯维茨1952年建立以来,一直在迅速发展,特别是夏普(1962)、林特尔(1965)和摩森(1966)提出并发展了资本资产定价模型(CAPM)后,使纯粹的理论研究有机会应用于实际证券分析当中。但是,CAPM忽略了许多因素的影响,使CAPM理论与实际存在难以弥合的距离。为此,对CAPM进行修正和补充就成为后来学者研究的重点。     

The NAIRU,Aggregate Demand and Investment

The nature of the non‐accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) is analysed. The focus of our analysis is the role of aggregate demand and capacity in the context of the NAIRU. Two aspects of the relationship between the level of aggregate demand and the NAIRU are of particular significance. First, it is argued that the real wage–employment relationship based on enterprise decisions cannot be fully articulated without reference to the level of aggregate demand. Second, a model which allows for variable returns to labour and the notion of full capacity is used to explore the effects of shifts in the capital stock on the real wage–employment relationship. The model is specifically used to explore whether a sufficiently expansionary environment can generate sufficient investment to shift that relationship until the NAIRU is compatible with full employment. A number of limitations on the conclusions reached are considered, and the policy implications are briefly considered.     

Employment policies in developing countries

The ILO World Conference on Employment was held in Geneva from June 4 to 17, 1976 and after long discussions adopted an action programme which provided for quite a number of measures designed to ensure full employment in developing countries until the year 2000. The problems posed by a policy of full employment in developing countries are indicated in the following article which demonstrates that a change in the inherited power structures is a major prerequisite for an effective policy of full employment.     

旅游保险企业顾客资产函数模型构建——基于互补性理论的探讨

旅游保险企业销售业绩不理想的一个主要原因,是不能很好地理解互补性营销资产管理的互补机理。旅游保险企业在组合渠道资产(互补性资产)时,如果原有服务质量(核心营销资产)比较薄弱,而新渠道资产需要对服务质量作出变革时,就不可以只组合进渠道资产而保持原有服务质量不变,否则只能达到次优甚至失败。中国旅游保险企业加强与互补体合作,就有可能获取后发营销竞争优势。     

我国银行业资产证券化研究

文章认为,住房抵押贷款是我国银行资产证券化的一个切入点,也是现阶段我国金融创新的一个新亮点,具有一定的可行性;虽然目前我国银行体系和法律环境的特点使国有商业银行通过证券化方式处置不良资产面临诸多问题,但是作为证券化品种之一的不良资产证券化仍存在一定的发展空间.为了使我国资产证券化健康发展,必须对资产证券化所涉及的相关法律问题逐一分解,在不违背现行法律基本框架的前提下,通过制订司法解释或规章的形式来支持和推动我国资产证券化的试点工作,待条件成熟后再制订统一的<资产证券化法>;商业银行应以资产证券化的出现为契机,积极开发新的产品和信息管理系统,增强资产负债管理弹性;在社会层面上,要建立综合信息系统,规范中介机构行为,建立注册登记制度,以此完善风险控制机制;通过引进和培训等多种方式培养高水平的专业人才.     

如何认识宏观经济与就业的关系

中国的就业体制改革和劳动力市场发育。是整体经济改革的重要方面。在这个改革过程中,形成了符合市场经济原则的政府积极就业政策体系,市场在配置劳动力资源中发挥了基础的作用。但这个改革任务还没有完成。如果宏观经济政策仅仅关注经济增长．没有真正把就业作为政策制定的出发点。不仅不能取得良好的就业扩大效果,也不能实现经济增长的初衷。在宏观经济政策选择中理解就业与经济增长和经济周期的关系,完善市场经济条件下的就业体制,实现就业与通货膨胀之间的平衡,具有十分重要的意义和紧迫性。     

黑龙江省流通业现状、问题与成因分析

黑龙江省的流通业已经发展成为在全省国民经济中占有重要地位的新型产业,对于促进地方经济发展、增加劳动力就业做出了重要贡献。在振兴东北老工业基地、再创龙江辉煌的进程中,流通业要继续发挥先导性产业作用,就必须充分认识所存在的问题,分析清楚导致流通业落后、竞争能力弱的种种因素,尽快改变“散、小、弱”的落后局面,迅速提高市场竞争力。     

RE‐EXAMINING THE IMPLICATIONS OF THE NEW CONSENSUS: ENDOGENOUS MONEY AND TAYLOR RULES IN A SIMPLE NEOCLASSICAL MACRO MODEL

This paper re‐examines the impact of endogenous money in a neoclassical model with interest‐sensitive expenditures. It first outlines a benchmark model with exogenous money and the usual full employment and money growth‐determined inflation results. It then replaces exogenous money with endogenous money, which is shown to generate model indeterminacy. Two methods of resolving this indeterminacy are then explored: money illusion and a Taylor rule for monetary policy, a key feature of new consensus models. The paper concludes that endogenous money has negative implications for the behaviour and interpretation of neoclassical and new consensus models.     

Growth,income distribution and unemployment in a two-sector economy

We build a two-sector general equilibrium growth model with capital-intensive consumption goods and a labour-intensive investment goods sector to investigate the coexistence of growth and unemployment. The model uses heterogeneity in saving behaviour, introduces an effective demand problem, has full employment of capital with input non-substitutability and shows that the aggregate labour employment is determined by available capital along with commodity market equilibrium. The long-run growth may not be balanced, and under biased growth, the level of unemployment may monotonically increase or decrease over time, or may first increase (decrease) and then decrease (increase). Such possible unemployment paths help us tightly define “jobless growth”.     

When unionisation is profitable for firms in network industries

In an industry characterised by the presence of network effects, this paper investigates a duopolistic game in which firms may choose whether to bargain over wages and employment with unions or to face a competitive labour market (i.e., without unions). If unions are sufficiently wage‐sensitive, it is shown that the presence of sufficiently large network effects makes unionisation the Pareto efficient sub‐game perfect Nash equilibrium outcome for firms.     

Disentangling sector and status effects in German employment growth

From 1992 to 2006, part-time employment in western Germany has grown by 83%, whereas full-time employment has shrunk by 15%. In addition, employment schemes vary substantially across industries and industries which are themselves developed differently. The paper analyses the extent to which the divergence of status-specific employment can be explained by factors inherent in full-time or part-time employment (status effect) or by changes in the sectoral composition (sector effect). A regression-analogue shift–share model is estimated. Economic variables like unit labour costs and output gap are controlled. As a dynamic panel data model is specified, a bias-corrected least squares dummy variable estimator is used. In a second step, the fixed effects of the estimation into parameters for employment status and 16 sectors are decomposed. The results show that status-specific characteristics dominantly explain changes in employment patterns.     

Structural problems of the next few years

The Federal Republic of Germany will be facing in the next few years changes in its economic structure which, if not in their extent, in their effect on the employment situation will be without parallel in the post-war period. After fifteen years of nearly uninterrupted full employment, it is reasonable to expect in the medium term an over-all rate of unemployment of the order of 2–3 p.c. (0.5–0.7 mn).     

STOCHASTIC VOLATILITY MODELS, CORRELATION, AND THE q-OPTIMAL MEASURE

The aim of this paper is to study the minimal entropy and variance-optimal martingale measures for stochastic volatility models. In particular, for a diffusion model where the asset price and volatility are correlated, we show that the problem of determining the q -optimal measure can be reduced to finding a solution to a representation equation. The minimal entropy measure and variance-optimal measure are seen as the special cases   q = 1  and   q = 2  respectively. In the case where the volatility is an autonomous diffusion we give a stochastic representation for the solution of this equation. If the correlation ρ between the traded asset and the autonomous volatility satisfies  ρ² < 1/ q   , and if certain smoothness and boundedness conditions on the parameters are satisfied, then the q -optimal measure exists. If  ρ²≥ 1/ q   , then the q -optimal measure may cease to exist beyond a certain time horizon. As an example we calculate the q -optimal measure explicitly for the Heston model.