Scenarios and the growth of knowledge: Notes on the epistemic element in scenario building

Scenarios raise a very remarkable challenge. They are a special category of thought experiments and as such they deal with the domain of the “possible” and “probable”, i.e. with the world of speculation. Nevertheless they are of a crucial practical importance for public policy, management and strategic thinking in general: any premeditated significant action has to be preceded by such a thought experiment that anticipates the possibility of its outcomes and its implications. The question is then, how could speculation have such a crucial epistemic role? What kind of knowledge, if any, do scenarios produce? What is the epistemic role of scenarios? The objective of this article is to discuss the controversial but crucial issue of the epistemic functions of scenarios and to outline several possible approaches to it. The article explores the relevance in this respect of the research that has been already done on thought experiments, de-biasing, deductive arguments and uncertainty—and complexity—coping cognitive devices while indicating the potential contribution of that literature to the further development of the scenario building practice and of the futures methodology.     

社会—技术系统可持续转型阻力及治理研究——基于利基保护空间思路

可持续转型研究是一个发展迅速的新领域,旨在解释社会-技术系统转型如何发生以及如何治理，其理论影响日益显著。然而，当前实践表明，以能源、交通为代表的系统转型进程依然相当缓慢，因此厘清转型进程中的阻力具有重要意义。归纳分析系统转型的基本要求以及转型动态过程和机制，从产业结构、基础设施、知识基础、市场和消费需求结构、公共政策与政治力量及社会认知6个方面分析社会-技术系统中现行非持续体制，对新的可持续技术利基发展和转型进程构成阻力。在现行技术体制稳定情况下，加速转型进程必须扶持技术利基成长，从防护、培育、赋能3个方面建立和强化利基保护空间功能,突破体制路径依赖。最后，从“谁治理、治理什么、如何治理”3个问题切入，提出在利基保护空间动态发展过程中，政策制定者需要以治理思维推进其战略管理。     

社会—技术系统可持续转型阻力及治理研究——基于利基保护空间思路

可持续转型研究是一个发展迅速的新领域,旨在解释社会-技术系统转型如何发生以及如何治理，其理论影响日益显著。然而，当前实践表明，以能源、交通为代表的系统转型进程依然相当缓慢，因此厘清转型进程中的阻力具有重要意义。归纳分析系统转型的基本要求以及转型动态过程和机制，从产业结构、基础设施、知识基础、市场和消费需求结构、公共政策与政治力量及社会认知6个方面分析社会-技术系统中现行非持续体制，对新的可持续技术利基发展和转型进程构成阻力。在现行技术体制稳定情况下，加速转型进程必须扶持技术利基成长，从防护、培育、赋能3个方面建立和强化利基保护空间功能,突破体制路径依赖。最后，从“谁治理、治理什么、如何治理”3个问题切入，提出在利基保护空间动态发展过程中，政策制定者需要以治理思维推进其战略管理。     

Strategic planning in public R&D organizations for agribusiness: Brazil and the United States of America

There is increasing evidence that public organizations dedicated exclusively to research and development (R&D) in agribusiness need systematic management tools to incorporate the uncertainties and complexities of technological and nontechnological factors of external environments in its long-term strategic plans. The major issues are: “What will be the agribusiness science and technology (S&T) needs be in the future?” “How to prepare in order to meet these needs?” Both Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation, Embrapa), attached to the Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture and the Agricultural Research Service (ARS) of the US Department of Agriculture (USDA) have developed a comprehensive strategic and operational planning process in order to answer these key questions in the 1990s. The main objective of this article is to present a comparative and preliminary analysis of concepts, methodologies, and processes utilized, and some results obtained by these public organizations.     

90年代中国旅游地理学进展研究

中国的旅游地理研究已经经历了２０多年的历史,部分学者曾就前１０年的发展状况做过综述,但９０年代的发展状况还少有人研究。中国旅游地理不的学科发展现状如何？旅游地理学者的构成和背影如何？他们的研究工作特点是什么？他们怎样增减下一代的旅游地理学者？本文将问卷分析的基础上回答上述问题。     

National Technology Foresight Activities Around the Globe: Resurrection and New Paradigms

This contribution summarizes recent experiences in government or national technology forecasting which are now often termed “foresight.” While the methodological tool kit changed from mathematical models to more qualitative scenarios or visions, the Delphi method has become the backbone of foresight projects. Recent national activities, being dealt with in this special issue, are compared in terms of their comprehensiveness, their science versus industry orientation, and their analytic versus action-oriented targets. Although some of these are ongoing, we can discern several new foresight paradigms. From the perspectives of sociology and political sciences, foresight elements seem to be the means of communication (or the “wiring up”) for the negotiating systems of the society. From an economics and management point of view, foresight is helpful for benchmarking and for initiating feedback processes between future demand and present day investment in research and development. From a cultural point of view, the resurrection of foresight in the 1990s seems to be related to growing globalization and at the same time the recognition of national or regional innovation systems. Finally, in terms of international affairs supranational foresight seems to become a new venture.     

A model of “coupled” technology transfer : A logistic curve approach

This article presents a mathematical model relating to the technology transfer problem. The origin of the problem stems from the existing trade-offs between the strategies of “technological progressiveness” and “static efficiency” employed by firms or countries defined as “leaders” and “followers,” respectively. The formulation of the model is based on the assumption that the technological development of a firm or a country follows a logistic growth curve when related to a specific technology. During the process of a “coupled” technology transfer, the development of the follower changes and its behavior is described by a first order nonhomogenous deferential equation. Different scenarios of the “coupled” technology transfer between the leader and the follower are being discussed.     

Semiotic emergent framework to address the reality of cyberterrorism

The following paper examines concepts associated with cyberterrorism. Most of the current attention given terrorism involves both probability and consequences related to the physical world. Focuses in “what-if” scenarios involve threats to the economy and the population from an enemy that has all the discretion in selecting the battlefield. But what if the target of terrorism activity is a virtual world? The economic and communications infrastructure of many countries depend on cyber thoroughfares at least as much as they do those of concrete or steel. Yet little attention is given to the notion of attacks that can occur in cyberspace. This discussion examines what cyberterrorism means, the forms it may take and how it may occur, and safeguards that should be considered in preparation for cyber warfare. To this end, we draw from current theories involving semiotics, emergence, and complexity to ground our work.     

Do voters vote ideologically?

In this paper we address the following question: To what extent is the hypothesis that voters vote “ideologically” (i.e., they always vote for the candidate who is ideologically “closest” to them) testable or falsifiable? We show that using data only on how individuals vote in a single election, the hypothesis that voters vote ideologically is irrefutable, regardless of the number of candidates competing in the election. On the other hand, using data on how the same individuals vote in multiple elections, the hypothesis that voters vote ideologically is potentially falsifiable, and we provide general conditions under which the hypothesis can be tested.     

A prospective on macrocybernetic process management systems

In an editorial in the February 1996 issue of Technological Forecasting and Social Change Professor Linstone noted that “the rapid pace of technology has not been matched by the pace of human change.” Were we to drop our perspective a bit lower, a similarly troublesome imbalance within technology itself becomes apparent: the rapid rate of increase in the complexity of process-related technologies relative to the much slower rate of increase in the sophistication of process control systems. The conclusion at which most technological forecasts seem to arrive is that there will be a continuation—perhaps even an acceleration—of the trend toward more intricate and sweepingly extensive processes (production-related and otherwise). If so, there is the specter of a steadily increasing shortfall between requirements and capabilities, and hence the likelihood of even grander technological embarrassments. This article considers two ways in which this shortfall might be kept in check. Increases in the intricacy of processes can be met, and to a considerable extent are already being met, by exchanging conventional process control facilities for enhanced alternatives. Less certain is how expansions of project scope might best be accommodated. One possibility is to consider exchanging process control systems for broader-purview process management systems. Hence the focus in this article is on prospects for the development of macrocybernetic constructs.     

Control of SO2 emissions from power plants: A case of induced technological innovation in the U.S.

This paper investigates how the details of government actions induce innovation—the overlapping activities of invention, adoption and diffusion, and learning by doing—in “environmental technology,” products and processes that either control pollutant emissions or prevent emissions altogether. It applies multiple quantitative and qualitative measures of innovation to a case subject to several “technology-push” and “demand-pull” instruments: sulfur dioxide control technology for power plants. The study employs analyses of public R&D funding, patents, expert interviews, learning curves, conference proceedings, and experience curves. Results indicate that: regulation and the anticipation of regulation stimulate invention; technology-push instruments appear to be less effective at prompting invention than demand-pull instruments; and regulatory stringency focuses inventive activity along certain technology pathways. Increased diffusion of the technology results in significant and predictable operating cost reductions in existing systems, as well as notable efficiency improvements and capital cost reductions in new systems. Government plays an important role in fostering knowledge transfer via technical conferences, as well as affecting the pattern of collaborative relationships within the technical research community via regulatory changes that affect the market for the technology. Finally, the case provides little evidence for the claim that cap-and-trade instruments induce innovation more effectively than other instruments.     

Using early concept narratives to collect valid customer input about breakthrough technologies: The effect of application visualization on transportation

The value of early customer input has long been recognized by companies. However, especially when breakthrough technologies are involved, more insight in valuable methods for collecting early customer input is needed. In this paper, we propose a method to evaluate a breakthrough technology with customers. First, a creative process should point out applications of the breakthrough technology. Applications allow customers to imagine the benefits of the technology behind it. By using early concept narratives, typically scenarios of somebody using and interacting with the application, this imagination process is enhanced. When no prototypes are available yet, it appears that narratives and visuals allow customers to really “see” the new world of the application, a process called transportation, which is a mix of imagery, feelings, and attention. In an experiment in which we make use of a case of an application of a breakthrough technology, we provide empirical support for our claim that early concept narratives could be a valuable tool to get valid customer reactions. Furthermore, we show which kind of visual format the applications should have in order to optimize transportation. The results of this study will support decision making about how to pursue breakthrough application evaluations early in the product development process.     

How firm capabilities affect who benefits from foreign technology

We explore how firm capabilities affect the diffusion of technology brought with foreign direct investment (FDI). Using a panel dataset on Indonesian manufacturers from 1988 to 1996, we measure how the productivity of differing domestic firms responds to the entry of multinational competitors. We find that firms with investments in research and development and firms with highly educated employees adopt more technology from foreign entrants than others. In contrast, firms that have a small “technology gap,” meaning that they are close to the international best-practice frontier, benefit less than firms with weak prior technical competency. This finding suggests that the marginal return to new knowledge is greater for firms that have more room to “catch up” than it is for already competitive firms.     

Cross-impact balances: A system-theoretical approach to cross-impact analysis

Cross-Impact methods are standard tools of the scenario technique. They provide a number of structured processes for the deduction of plausible developments of the future in the form of rough scenarios and are based on expert judgments about systemic interactions. Cross-Impact methods are mostly used for analytical tasks which do not allow the use of theory-based computational models due to their disciplinary heterogeneity and the relevance of “soft” system knowledge, but on the other hand are too complex for a purely argumentative systems analysis. The essentials of a new Cross-Impact approach (Cross-Impact Balance Analysis, CIB) are outlined; it is of high methodological flexibility and is especially suitable for the use in expert discourses due to its transparent analytical logic. Due to its mathematical qualities it is also particularly well suited for the analytical integration of calculable system parts. An application of CIB to a project on the generation of electricity and climate protection is described. For a theoretical foundation of the CIB method relations to systems theory, especially to the theory of dynamic systems, are discussed. This explicates that CIB scenarios correspond to the solutions of slowly time-varying pair-force systems.     

Societal aspects of technology assessment

Despite earnest admonitions in most technology assessments that institutional arrangements, social impacts, and societal implications be taken into account, the methodology commonly used not only systematically and systematically excludes these very dimensions but often creates a distorted focus. The paradigm dominating structural modeling in technology assessment is technically-oriented; the techniques, lineal descendants of systems analysis, are no more reliable for “assessing” the uncertain future than have been their ancestors in “managing” the present.     

Regional, national, and spatially explicit scenarios of demographic and economic change based on SRES

We report here spatially explicit scenario interpretations for population and economic activity (GDP) for the time period 1990 to 2100 based on three scenarios (A2, B1, and B2) from the IPCC Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). At the highest degree of spatial detail, the scenario indicators are calculated at a 0.5 by 0.5 degree resolution. All three scenarios follow the qualitative scenario characteristics, as outlined in the original SRES scenarios. Two scenarios (B1 and B2) also follow (with minor adjustments due to scenario improvements) the original SRES quantifications at the level of 4 and 11 world regions respectively. The quantification of the original SRES A2 scenario has been revised to reflect recent changing perceptions on the demographic outlook of world population growth. In this revised “high population growth” scenario, A2r world population reaches some 12 billion by 2100 (as opposed to some 15 billion in the original SRES A2 scenario) and is characterized by a “delayed fertility transition” that is also mirrored in a delayed (economic) development catch-up, resulting in an initially stagnating and subsequently only very slow reduction in income disparities. The spatially explicit scenario interpretation proceeds via two steps. Through a combination of decomposition and optimization methods, world regional scenario results are first disaggregated to the level of 185 countries. In a subsequent second step, national results are further disaggregated to a grid cell level, taking urbanization and regional (rural–urban) income disparities explicitly into account. A distinguishing feature of the spatially explicit scenario results reported here is that both methodologies, as well as numerical assumptions underlying the “downscaling” exercise, are scenario-dependent, leading to distinctly different spatial patterns of population and economic activities across the three scenarios examined.     

浅谈交通标志更换工程施工技术管理措施

为了完善和规范交通标志的合理设置，便于交通标志更换工程快捷规范施工，对已经实施的交通标志更换工程从施工技术管理措施方面进行了探讨。主要对交通标志更换工程施工工艺进行了规范化和标准化；对因被物品遮挡和版面信息过载等情况，造成视认困难、设置不合理的交通指路标志进行了技术修改和调整。促使交通标志更换工程施工更加快捷、标准、规范；交通标志合理设置，更加清晰醒目，为不熟悉周围路网体系的道路使用者提供了极大便利。