中国粮食安全战略的理论逻辑、历史逻辑与实践逻辑

党的十八大以来,党中央把粮食安全作为治国理政的头等大事,提出了新时代中国的粮食安全战略,为立足新发展阶段保障国家粮食安全提供了重要依据。从理论逻辑出发,保障国家粮食安全,既要统筹协调好五对逻辑关系,又要从党的宗旨、社会主要矛盾、发展的目标任务和社会主义的本质要求四个维度来深刻认识。从历史逻辑出发,回顾了建党百年来保障国家粮食安全的实践探索、取得的重大成就和历史经验。从实践逻辑出发,在迈向2035年基本实现社会主义现代化的新征程中,保障国家粮食安全短期面临着粮食供需结构分化问题;中长期内部发展面临保产能稳增长的难点压力与粮农和粮食主产区的短板弱项,外部供给则面临着错综复杂的国际环境引致的不确定性和不稳定性。立足新发展阶段,站在新的历史起点,基于中国的国情、世情、农情、粮情,应筑牢国家粮食安全防线;把握好土地的长期稳定性和发展灵活性的平衡,使农业生产关系更适应农业生产力发展;促进耕地保护与质量建设和种业科技自立自强,共同赋能粮食产能;率先实现粮食主产区农业农村现代化,提高粮农收入,促进实现共同富裕;优化主产区、产销平衡区、主销区布局,共同扛起粮食安全“国之大者”政治责任;加大财政金融支农力度与风险监测,提高粮食产业风险保障水平;推动“有为政府”和“有效市场”相结合,完善粮食流通与储备体系;推进供给侧结构性改革,满足粮食更高品质消费需求;提高国际贸易与关键物流通道掌控力,共同维护世界粮食安全。     

我国国家粮食安全问题的战略思考及其政策建议

粮食安全问题,事关国计民生和社会稳定的大局,确保国家粮食安全,是我国农业政策的两大基本目标之一。为此,需要树立正确的粮食安全观,认清制约粮食安全的因素和规律,制定科学的粮食生产与贸易战略,并采取相应的政策扶持和调控措施。     

新疆粮食安全预警分析

通过构建粮食安全预警指标体系,对新疆粮食的安全程度进行科学分析及警情预报。选择能反映粮食安全与否的预警指标体系;根据可能发生的粮食不安全或风险的不同程度及其影响,对警情指标进行警级分类和警限确定。根据目前或预测的警情指标落在何警区内,发出相应的警示灯信号,直观地显示出粮食安全状况,并提出相应的确保新疆粮食安全的措施建议。     

安徽省粮食安全的影响因素分析

安徽是农业大省,如果出现粮食安全问题,不仅会给安徽省的社会稳定带来重大影响,同时也会对全国的粮食供应造成不利影响。文章认为影响安徽省粮食安全的是耕地数量和质量不断下降、政策扶持力度不够、农业生产基础设施薄弱和农村劳动力素质较低等四个因素,并提出相应措施。     

刍议完善我国粮食安全预警机制的三个核心问题

我国的粮食安全预警机制的完善涉及到三个核心问题。一是有关粮食安全预警的组织机构问题。缺乏一个权责明确的预警机构,粮食安全预警机制作用就难以发挥。二是有关粮食安全预警的信息采集问题。粮食安全的信息量十分巨大,其撷取的方法是否精准及衡量粮食安全的指标体系的选择是否得当,直接关系到粮食安全预警的效用与价值。三是如何将粮食安全预警的信息传递给有关职能部门的问题,这需要构建一套规范的运作程序。     

我国粮食安全与农业结构调整取向:观照国际经验

我国基本不会发生粮食供给危机,调整农业生产结构并不威胁长期粮食供给稳定。结合日、韩经验,主动发展合同农业,利用国内、国际两种资源、开发国内、国际两个市场,适度降低粮食自给率,积极扩大土地密集型农作物进口及鼓励高附加值经济作物的出口,在保证我国粮食供给安全的基础上,适度调整农业生产结构能有效提高农民整体收入水平。     

我国农业劳动力供求状况与粮食安全

目前我国农业劳动力的供给为18099万人,需求为17247万人,农业剩余劳动力为852万人,剩余比例为4.71%,可见,目前我国农业已基本无剩余劳动力。进一步调查发现,劳动力的这种供求状况对农业生产影响很大,对粮食安全构成了威胁,主要表现为耕地撂荒、弃粮从经、降低复种指数和粗放经营等。因此,人们对明天"谁来种地"的担忧并非杞人忧天。     

基于粮食安全背景下的我国农业补贴绩效评价研究

文章从农业生产效益和农民收入的角度,运用Pearson相关系数和主成分方法构建粮食安全综合指标体系,以WTO框架下的农业补贴对粮食安全的贡献率作为农业补贴绩效评价指标并对其进行分析,得出农业补贴总量对粮食安全的贡献率在波动中呈增长趋势、但近年来趋于稳定等结论。在此基础上,文章提出了优化农业补贴结构的政策建议:以农民种粮收入持续增长为前提调整农业补贴保障粮食安全;根据影响效果和贡献率优化农业补贴结构,提高支农效率。     

粮食安全问题及策略分析

整个中国的老龄化和农村劳动力转移直接造成农业人口老龄化,直接影响我国农业发展特别是粮食安全。因此必须采取措施加强对农业适龄劳动力的能力培养,加大对农业的直接补助,提高全社会对农业的重视程度,实现农业进步,保障粮食安全。文章具体分析了基于粮食安全的农业人口问题。     

Dietary Diversity,Food Security and Undernourishment: The Vietnamese Evidence*

As is widely known, Vietnam experienced a rise in living standards and a decline in expenditure poverty during the first half of the 1990s. This paper extends this knowledge by providing evidence on the Vietnamese experience of food security, undernourishment and poverty from the late 1990s to the early part of the new millennium. The results suggest that poor households did not experience increases in food consumption, calorie intake and dietary diversity of the same magnitude as non‐poor households. Nevertheless, Vietnam experienced impressive reductions in both calorie deprivation and expenditure poverty at the turn of the century. Non‐poor households, in particular, experienced spectacular increases in calorie intake and dietary diversity during the period 1997/1998–2004. This paper also reports regression results which point to the role of urbanization and improvement in education levels in promoting dietary diversity and nutrient intake. The present study finds evidence of sharp regional differences in calorie intake and calorie costs, which suggests that the authorities should set provincial poverty lines, contrary to the current practice adopted by Vietnam's General Statistical Office.     

城市农民工社会保障问题若干思考

城市农民工已经日益成为一个不容忽视的规模巨大的特殊社会群体。文章阐述了农民工社会保障制度缺失不仅造成城市农民工的权益得不到保证,也阻碍了我国农村人口城市化的进程。在此基础上,文章提出了构建针对城市农民工的社会保障制度的基本框架。     

Managing Food Price Instability in Asia: A Macro Food Security Perspective*

The present paper describes the benefits and costs, in qualitative terms, of managing food price instability in Asia in the context of promoting economic growth and poverty reduction to improve food security. The experience of Asian governments in actual practice with price stabilization is discussed in the context of managing an efficient transition to market‐mediated food security. Recent experience in Indonesia, where a sharp increase in rice prices (caused by a ban on rice imports) pushed 4 million people into poverty, provides continued motivation for the analytical story in this paper.     

The Food (In)Security Impact of Land Redistribution in South Africa: Microeconometric Evidence from National Data

The South African land-reform program has been widely criticized for its slow pace as well as its apparent lack of contribution to poverty reduction. No econometric evidence of the impact of land transfers has been provided to date and this paper attempts to fill this gap by considering the impact of receiving a land grant on households’ food insecurity. Propensity score matching and univariate probit estimates using two national household surveys indicate that, on average, land grant recipients are more food insecure than comparable non-participants. Recursive bivariate probit estimates suggest that selection bias is not driving this result.     

Energy Industry in China： Marketization and National Energy Security

I. Opening Up the Energy Market: Resultsand Impact on Energy SecurityNational energy security becomes an issue when domestic shortfalls in energy resourcesand output force a country to turn to other countries for energy supply. An open energymarket can hardly cause energy security problems, and an energy-poor country can meetits energy needs only by opening up its market. In the last decade, the oil demand on theChinese market has been growing robustly, and oil imports have kept rising on …