Die asymptotische Verteilung des Prognosefehlers bei Prognosen mit Hilfe eines dynamischen ökonometrischen Modells höherer als erster Ordnung

Zusammenfassung In dieser Arbeit wird die asymptotische Verteilung des Prognosefehlers, wie er sich im Rahmen einer dynamischen Simulation eines allgemeinen autoregressiven ökonometrischen Modells der Ordnungp (einschließlich verzögerter exogener Variabler der Ordnungq) ergibt, abgeleitet. Daran anschließend werden einige Fragestellungen, die damit in unmittelbarem Zusammenhang stehen, diskutiert: Die Frage der relativen Effizienz der Prognoseschätzung, basierend auf der unrestricted- bzw. der derived reduced form, die Verwendung der asymptotischen Verteilung des Prognosefehlers für einen predictive test des Modells. Außerdem werden asymptotische simultane Prognoseintervalle abgeleitet.

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Summary The asymptotic distribution of the forecast error in the dynamic simulation of a higher than first order linear dynamic econometric model is derived and related topics are discussed.

     

RAM: A Range Adjusted Measure of Inefficiency for Use with Additive Models,and Relations to Other Models and Measures in DEA

Generalized Efficiency Measures (GEMS) for use in DEA are developed and analyzed in a context of differing models where they might be employed. The additive model of DEA is accorded a central role and developed in association with a new measure of efficiency referred to as RAM (Range Adjusted Measure). The need for separately treating input oriented and output oriented approaches to efficient measurement is eliminated because additive models effect their evaluations by maximizing distance from the efficient frontier (in ₁, or weighted ₁, measure) and thereby simultaneously maximize outputs and minimize inputs. Contacts with other models and approaches are maintained with theorems and accompanying proofs to ensure the validity of the thus identified relations. New criteria are supplied, both managerial and mathematical, for evaluating proposed measures. The concept of approximating models is used to further extend these possibilities. The focus of the paper is on the physical aspects of performance involved in technical and mix inefficiencies. However, an Appendix shows how overall, allocative and technical inefficiencies may be incorporated in additive models.     

Effective participative decision making: A joint responsibility for success

Much of the current research on participative decision making focuses on the increasing need for broad-based decision-making systems, on the different outcomes associated with different forms of participation, or on the problems associated with poorly managed participative decision-making systems. This article considers the responsibilities of employees who participate in organizational decision making and the responsibilities of employers who expect to share decision-making tasks. A Bill of Responsibilities for Employees and a Bill of Responsibilities for Employers are presented. Pitfalls associated with neglecting these responsibilities are discussed.     

In college: Teaching the wrong things?

Instead of stressing good job prospects, which often fail to materialize automatically and promptly after graduation, colleges should hue more closely to their liberal arts roots. Hard sell though it might be, given prevailing attitudes lately, stress to young people that learning per se, not immediate employment at a fabulous salary, is what true education is really all about. Done seriously, good results of such a holistic approach could be almost guaranteed. Frustration and disillusionment would be reduced. Morale and productivity would increase. Social responsibility could be argued more convincingly. As an institutional fringe benefit, the overall image of postsecondary education would improve.     

Who consults investment analysts?

This paper shows that the questions: Who consults investment analysts? and Who goes to the El Farol bar in Santa Fe? are similar. Thus, investors use a mixed optimal strategy. The demand for consulting services is also characterized.Received: 25 September 2002, Accepted: 26 May 2003, JEL Classification: D81, C70Jacob Paroush: The author is grateful to Yaw Nyarko, Yigal Milchtaich and an anonymous referee for helpful comments and suggestions.     

Clarifying the Boundaries of Sexual Harassment and Employer Liability: Judicial Application of Harris v. Forklift Systems, Inc.

Many had anticipated that Harris v. Forklift Systems, Inc., the first significant Supreme Court ruling on sexual harassment since 1986, would clarify the boundary between merely offensive conduct and unlawful conduct, and would offer greater guidance on when an employer is liable for the creation of an abusive (or hostile) work environment. However, the Harris court handed down only a short, narrow decision that left these areas largely unresolved, and, accordingly, it was widely criticized for circumventing contentious issues and for perpetuating the vague framework under which abusive work environment claims are now analyzed. This article examines a representative cross-section of federal and state decisions that have interpreted and applied Harris to evaluate whether courts have achieved any consensus on what constitutes an abusive work environment and on when an employer is liable for this type of sexual harassment.     

Multiple patterns in the dynamics of a stock market model

We study a non-linear model of the interactions between stock market prices and the level of assets owned by investment funds. The model dynamics is described, in continuous time, by a smooth vector field in the plane, which presents, under suitable hypotheses, a unique equilibrium point.Our analisis of the system flow is qualitative and focuses on detecting endogenous fluctuations of the state variables, i.e. on checking existence and number of limit cycles.We prove that several, and quite different, dynamical patterns can occur, even in cases where the system isoclines assume that most simple geometrical forms.It is shown, in particular, that the equilibrium point can undergo either a sub-critical or a super-critical Hopf-bifurcation whenever two economically meaningful exogenous parameters are made to cross a given set of critical values. Hence, in the subcritical case, as a trapping region exists, at least two limit cycles appear.Next, we give analytical examples of model-consistent vector fields which present a multiplicity of fluctuating trends, and prove the apparently surprising result that the number of limit cycles can be as large as one wants, provided a specific isocline assumes a cubic shape.Both authors are members of the Gruppo Nazionale per l'Analisi Funzionale e le sue Applicazioni-G.N.A.F.A. of the Italian Council of Researches-CN.R.The present paper refers to the activities of the National M.U.R.S.T. Group Dinamiche Non Lineari ed Applicazioni alle Scienze Economiche e Sociali.     

The Irish Economic Resurgence and Small Nation Development

The success of the economy of the Republic of Ireland since the mid-1990s has prompted the characterization The Celtic Tiger. This paper describes the elements of the success and examines the strategic basis for it. Ireland's development strategy focused on building a consensus on fiscal and economic policy; capitalizing on membership in the European Union; promoting direct foreign investments with aggressive incentives; and cultivating a young and educated work force. Far from being a miracle, Ireland's success provides a model for economic development for small nations in a global economy. The authors examine and assess economic development efforts in Puerto Rico and Costa Rica in light of lessons learned from Ireland's experience.     

Una luce nuova su una vecchia storia: La “scindibilitá” di Cantelli-insolera e la struttura a termine dei tassi d'interesse

Si mostra come la moderna teoria della struttura a termine dei tassi d'interesse consenta di definire diversi esempi (più o meno naturali) di leggi di capitalizzazione a tre variabili, e dunque sostanzialmente del tipo di quelle considerate da Insolera. La relativa condizione di scindibilità, già oggetto di polemica con Cantelli, appare formulabile in più di una versione, una delle quali equivale alla odierna ipotesi di equilibrio del mercato finanziario.

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Summary The modern theory of term structure of interest rates leads one, in a natural way, to consider several models of accumulation factors which depend on three variables, and can therefore be counted among those considered in this time by the Italian finance mathematician F. Insolera. The question of how to formulate the principle of consistency for such factors has been the subject of an animated debate between Insolera and F.P. Cantelli. The present paper shows that it admits more than one solution; one of the possible versions rendering the principle equivalent to the market equilibrium condition.

     

A dual approach for matrix-derivatives

Summary A dual approach for matrix by matrix derivatives is proposed, based on the work ofBalestra and the idea ofDwyer/MacPhail. The two derivative concepts are calledB-type derivative for the form B/A = (b _kl /A), because it was studied fully inBalestra, andA-type derivative for the form B/ /A = (B/a _ij ). Both derivative concepts are linked by permutation matrices, which also reveil the duality aspect more clearly, and can be transformed to each other very easily. The derivatives are applied to least squares estimates and posterior means in the general regression model and the seemingly unrelated regression (SUR)-system, introduced byZellner. The derivatives with respect to the covariance matrix is related to the local sensitivity concept ofLeamer [1978], while the derivatives with respect to the data-matrix, also called local resistance, is linked with the robustness concept ofTukey. The newly definedB-derivative enables an easier interpretation of the results.     

Maximal asymptotic power and efficiency of two-sample tests based on generalized U-Statistics

In this article a systematic study is given of the asymptotic behavior of two-sample tests based on U-Statistics with arbitrary antisymmetric kernels . Besides the investigation under the hypothesis and under fixed alternatives we determine the local power as a function of as well as its maximizing value _opt. Moreover formulas for the asymptotic relative efficiency ARE(₂,₁) of the ₂-test with respect to the ₁-test are derived. It turns out that _opt also yields the most efficient test in the sense that ARE(_opt,)1 for all (admissible) kernels .     

Studio deglieffetti di due sistemi di tassazione progressiva in un modello di utilita' attesa a due periodi

Dopo avere introdotto due sistemi di tassazione progressiva in un modello di utilità attesa a due periodi, si analizzano gli effetti che un tale tipo di tassazione ha sui consumi e sugli investimenti in beni a rischio.

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Summary Two systems of progressive taxation are introduced in a two-period expected utility model; then the effects that such a kind of taxation has on the consumption and on the investment in risky assets are analyzed.

     

Zum Minimax-Prinzip in der statistischen Qualitätskontrolle

Summary To decide about acception or rejection of a lot of items by sampling the sample size and the critical value of the test statistic are to be determined suitably. In this paper the consequences of the minimax principle are studied when it is applied to the expectation of the total loss. Under the assumption that the loss for acceptance and the loss for rejection without control are linear functions of the portion of defective items, it is proved that the minimax principle implies the decision rule do not control and accept the lot with a certain probability 0. In other words: In this case and in this form the minimax principle is not adequate.     

Some brief notes on the “unfinished business” of qualitative inquiry

The paper argues that there are a variety of implicit issues in qualitative inquiry that need to be addressed if the area is to develop in some normal science sense. This unfinished business is concerned with a deeper investigation of basic terms that are now simply taken for granted, such as theme and pattern. It also includes the need to develop rules which will assist in making and justifying how qualitative interpretations are made from the implicit processes of inference. Specific suggestions are made for accomplishing these issues.     

Notes on Sensitivity and Stability of the Classifications of Returns to Scale in Data Envelopment Analysis

As its title suggests, this note constitutes a critique of the paper by Seiford and Zhu (1999), Sensitivity and Stability of the Classifications of Returns to Scale (RTS) in Data Envelopment Analysis. By means of counter examples, we discuss some problems related to results presented in that paper.     

Vergleich des verallgemeinerten nichtzentralent-Tests mit dem Binomialtest

Zusammenfassung Es sei {F _,(x); –<<, >0} mitF _,(x)=F((x–)/)–F(x) eine standardisierte Verteilungsfunktion — die Familie der zulässigen Verteilungsfunktionen. Der (früher eingeführte) verallgemeinerte nichtzentralet-Test für die Hypothese {PP ₀} mitP:=F _,(x ₀) gegen die Alternative {P>P ₀} zum Niveau wird mit dem entsprechenden nichtparametrischen Test (Test für die Hypothese {pP ₀} über den Parameterp einer Binomialverteilung gegen die Alternative {p>P ₀}) verglichen. Für dent-Test wird die relative asymptotische Effizienz bestimmt.Beide Tests lassen sich als Tests für das zur WahrscheinlichkeitP ₀ gehörende Quantil einer Verteilungsfunktion interpretieren. Der klassische zentrale Student-Test ergibt sich als Spezialfall (F(x)=(x),P ₀=0,5).

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Summary Let {F _,(x);–<<, >0} withF _,(x ₀):=F((x–)/–F(x) a standarized distribution function — the family of admissible distribution functions. The (earlier introduced) generalized noncentralt-test for the hypothesis {PP ₀} withP:=F _,(x ₀) against the alternative {P>P ₀} at level of significance is compared with the corresponding nonparametric test (Binomial test). The relative asymptotic efficiency of thet-test is determined. Both kinds of tests can be interpreted as quantiltests. In caseF(x)=(x),P ₀=0,5 one gets the classical central Student-test.

     

An Efficiency Comparison of European Banking Systems Operating under Different Environmental Conditions

The paper investigates the operating efficiency differences of a sample of commercial banks across 10 European countries. First, the paper analyzes the technical efficiency of each country sample following the basic Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) model incorporating only banking variables. Then, a complete DEA model is introduced, incorporating environmental factors together with the banking variables of the basic model. The comparison between the two models shows that country-specific environmental conditions exercise a strong influence over the behavior of each country's banking industry.     

A numerical representation of semiorders on a countable set

Let be a semiorder on a countable setX and letx⁰ y if and only if either there existsx withxxy or there existsx withxxy. Then ⁰ is a preference relation with transitive indifference, which can be represented by a utility functionf of the usual sort. It is well known that is represented by a pair of real-valued functionsu, v, in the sense thatxy if and only ifu(x)>v(y). We prove that there exists a pair of functionsu, v, representing , such thatu+v is the utility function which represents in the usual sense. Moreover it is easily seen that, for such a pair of functionsu, v, we havex⁰ y if and only if eitheru(x)>u(y) or (u(x)=u(y) andv(x)>v(y)).

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Sommario Consideriamo unsemiordine su un insiemeX numerabile e poniamox⁰ y se e solo se esistex tale chexxy, oppure esistex tale chexxy. In questo caso ⁰ è unordine debole, che può essere rappresentato da una funzione di utilitàf nel senso usuale. D'altra parte è rappresentato da una coppia di funzioniu, v, nel senso chexy se e solo seu(x)>v(y). In questo lavoro si prova che ammette una rappresentazioneu, v tale chex⁰ y se e solo seu(x)+v(x)>u(y)+v(y). Si dimostra altresì che, con riguardo ad una siffatta rappresentazioneu, v di , riescex⁰ y se e solo seu(x)>u(y) oppure (u(x)=u(y) ed anchev(x)>v(y)).

     

On estimating the variance of a finite population

Summary Observing that the estimator for a finite population variance as recommended byLiu [1974a, b] can sometimes become negative, we suggest a few non-negative alternative estimators and note some of their properties. UnlikeLiu we follow the conventional Bayesian approach to get another estimator with an optimal property of uniform admissibility.This paper, however, was prepared when the author worked in the Department of Economic Statistics, University of Sydney.     

Wrongful termination: Balancing employer and employee rights—A summary with recommendations

The employer's right to terminate for any cause has been seriously constrained. Recent court rulings and discrimination legislation make employee termination a hazardous undertaking. The prevailing logic is based on the concept of just cause. This concept attempts to balance employer, employee, and society's rights and fit action to the situation. Recommended management action involves little more than careful management of human resources as practiced by well managed firms for many years.