熟练劳动力跨国移民、知识结构与经济增长

熟练劳动力跨国移民对于发展中国家人力资本投资的激励效应近年来被许多文献所强调,不过这些文献都忽略了这种激励效应对于人力资本结构的影响。本文通过区分人力资本的类型,构建了一个基于技术进步、知识结构和经济增长关系的模型,分析了熟练劳动力跨国移民对于移出国人力资本积累及经济增长的影响。分析显示,不同发展阶段的国家需要不同知识结构的人力资本,跨国移民的经济影响取决于移出国所处的阶段。在技术模仿阶段,跨国移民的激励效应会扭曲移出国人力资本积累的结构,从而延缓经济增长。只有到了技术创新阶段,这种激励效应对人力资本积累的扭曲才会消失。另外,目标国对熟练劳动力的移民"门槛"政策,会加重移出国人力资本积累的扭曲,进一步延缓其经济增长。     

移民汇款对人力资本的影响研究——基于制度环境调节效应的实证考察

基于1981—2018年114个发展中国家的年度非平衡面板数据,运用固定效应模型、工具变量两阶段最小二乘法(IV-2SLS)和广义矩估计法(GMM),实证检验了移民汇款对人力资本的影响。结果表明,移民汇款对人力资本积累具有显著的促进效应,制度环境对移民汇款与人力资本的关系具有正向调节效应。进一步对中低收入国家和中高收入国家进行异质性检验发现,移民汇款对中低收入国家人力资本积累的贡献更大;就制度环境在国际移民汇款对人力资本影响中的调节效应而言,中高收入国家更显著。     

消费拉动经济增长的前景--基于消费-人力资本-增长的途径分析

消费能否拉动经济增长还存在比较大的争议，重要原因在于消费拉动经济增长的机理尚不清楚。基于对消费—增长不同观点的述评，构建了消费—人力资本—增长的理论模型，即消费是维系劳动力简单生产、实现劳动力再生产、促进劳动人力资本积累的基本途径；消费带来的人力资本积累直接促进了经济增长。在这一传导机制的基础之上，利用黄金储蓄率方法对我国潜在消费规模进行初步估算，估算消费释放有可能带来的增长效应，并就消费拉动经济增长提出相关建议。     

中国山区贫困及其可持续发展研究

文章认为,在"中心—外围"经济发展格局下,中国反贫困新的思路是,加强对贫困山区的人力资本投资,通过人力资本积累提高贫困人口收入的直接效益以及因人力资本积累而导致人口迁移带来的人与土地紧张关系缓解的间接效应,实现在可持续发展中消除山区贫困。中央政府对财政制度以及地方政府和地方官员的考核与激励制度等应做调整、创新和变革,以协调解决因人力资本投资在各地区之间产生的成本—收益问题。     

对拉美国家教育发展及问题的思考

教育与经济增长是教育经济学研究的重要主题。教育本身具有两个最重要的功能:一是通过教育培养有知识技能的熟练劳动力,积累人力资本,内生于经济增长;二是通过教育实现人的发展,进而实现社会发展。教育既是社会发展的助推器,也是社会发展的均衡器,是促进社会公平、改变社会分层、建设和谐社会的重要手段。     

人力资本效应、产业内贸易与经济增长

本文将人力资本的外部效应与内部效应结合起来分析人力资本效应、产业内贸易与经济增长之间的理论联系。贸易不仅通过人力资本规模的扩大,而且通过差异产品之间替代弹性的增强实现世界差异产品种类的增加和市场规模的扩大。产业内贸易引起的竞争效应和人力资本外部效应对最终产品部门、资本品部门和研发部门中人力资本的配置状况产生影响,并且还会通过这种渠道影响人力资本内部效应和经济的长期增长。人力资本效应对一国长期经济增长具有正面影响,贸易的竞争效应对一国长期经济增长具有负面影响,而贸易对长期增长的确切影响则取决于这两种效应的比较。     

国际移民理论综述

在国际移民全球化、加速化、多样化的时代,对移民的关注与研究是世界范围内的重要课题。国际移民理论主要有"推—拉"理论、新古典主义经济理论、新经济移民理论、劳动力市场分割理论、世界体系理论、移民系统理论、跨国主义等,并衍生出移民网络说、累积因果关系说、移民文化说,诠释了国际移民的动因与发展以及与世界政治、经济、文化等的关系。     

移民汇款、实际汇率升值及“荷兰病”——基于中国的实证检验

移民汇款促进经济增长效应在实证检验中尚未得到证实。移民汇款可能存在阻碍母国经济增长的效应,其内在机制被归结于移民汇款引起了母国实际汇率升值、出口竞争力下降,从而导致"荷兰病"。移民汇款流入在中国国际收支中已成为越来越重要的一项国际资本流动。通过实证检验的结果表明:中国国际移民汇款流入存在显著的实际汇率升值效应,且实际汇率与移民汇款之间存在相互影响关系。中国移民汇款存在显著的宏观经济效应,应成为宏观经济政策的调控变量之一。     

教育、人力资本投资与我国经济发展

一、引言 人力资本是通过对人的教育、培训、实践经验、迁移、保健等方面的投资而获得的知识和技能的积累.个别劳动者可以视为简单劳动和人力资本的组合,劳动力成员中人力资本的分布不同,经济增长也会因此产生差异.现代人力资本理论形成于20世纪50年代末60年代初,其理论研究的两条主线为:经济增长研究与收入分配研究.     

人口红利贡献被高估了吗?——基于人力资本积累视角的研究

人口红利下降被认为是新常态下中国面临的重大挑战,然而劳动投入不仅包含劳动数量,还包含劳动质量,分别对应于人口红利与人力资本。由于在测量上忽视了高速城市化对人力资本积累的积极影响,在机制上忽视了人口红利和人力资本分布趋同的叠加影响,容易造成人口红利贡献高估且人口资本贡献低估。文章从人口迁移视角出发,参考拉姆齐无限期界模型建立人力资本积累方程,将城市化对人力资本积累的积极作用纳入分析,得出转换效应、迁移效应和共振效应,阐明人口红利和人力资本空间分布趋同的微观机制,得到检验人口红利和人力资本对经济增长贡献的一致性框架。以2013-2016年272个样本城市进行计量检验：固定效应回归分析和内生性检验表明人口红利和人力资本的增长弹性排序不确定,中介效应检验表明人力资本的增长贡献超过人口红利,分组检验进一步证实人力资本贡献超过人口红利,且存在相互叠加共同影响城市经济增长的共振效应。结论表明,若充分考虑城市化对人力资本的积极影响,则人口红利的贡献确实被高估,而人力资本的贡献被低估。由此得出政策建议,应持续推进城市化高质量发展,加速人力资本积累,构筑劳动质量替代劳动数量的机制,以更好地应对新常态下人口红利下降的负面冲击。     

The Impact of Increased School Enrollment on Economic Growth in Tanzania

Abstract: Two different positions prevail in the recent discussion on the impact of education on economic growth: those who support a positive correlation between schooling and economic growth rates and those who claim that the impact of schooling on growth has been overstated. What is intriguing about this discussion is that both positions are based on theory and the results from empirical studies. We examine the long‐term effects of increased school enrollment (and effective attendance) on economic growth in Tanzania using a dynamic computable general equilibrium (DCGE) model. We find that an increase in human capital formation in the long run leads only to a moderate increase of economic growth rates but to a substantial improvement of factor incomes to low‐education households, while overall income effects are Pareto efficient.     

The Impact of Brain Drain on Human Capital in Developing Countries

The debate over the effect of human capital flight on educational attainment in immigrants' source countries has received huge theoretical propositions but a few analytical approaches. This paper examines the short‐run and long‐run impact of skilled migration rates (brain drain) on human capital formation in migrants' source developing countries. Specifically, we revisited some empirical studies that found evidence of beneficial brain drain in migrants' source countries. Our empirical result, using school enrolments does not only disagree with theirs but also presents an insight on how human capital leakages that occur through brain drain can be counterbalanced through remittances received in the immigrants' source countries.     

Does Schooling Promote Economic Growth?

Abstract: This paper revisits the debate on schooling and economic growth with particular reference to the case of sub‐Saharan Africa. Following the endogenous growth model developed by Lucas (1988) that considers human capital as one factor of production and schooling as a means of human capital accumulation, two results of schooling are explicitly stated: accumulation of privately owned and publicly owned human capital. By developing a growth estimating equation containing these two types of schooling results from the model and confronting it with empirical data, the hypothesis that schooling has got growth effect is tested. The analytic result suggests that in the indicated economies, for the period covered by the study (1966–2000), schooling that leads to accumulation of publicly owned human capital is associated with per capita income growth. Likewise, the analysis provides supporting evidence for the argument that primary schooling level is more associated with growth than other levels of schooling.     

公共教育投资与延长人口红利——基于人力资本动态投入产出模型和SAM的预测

本文利用SAM和动态投入产出模型预测了通过提高公共教育投资以延长人口红利的可行性。假定政府扩张教育投入至GDP4.5%,施行高中义务教育,虽然在短期内由于挤占经济建设投资,会导致经济增速下降,但其长期效应包括：使高中和研究生学历人力资源迅速扩张,显著提升现代制造、科教、服务业的生产率,为产业结构升级打下基础;居民和企业相对收入提高,有利于经济增长模式转变;GDP增长率将随着人力资本的积累而回升,增长在人口红利拐点后得以延续。     

International Trade and the Accumulation of Human Capital

Changes in the terms of trade affect both the incentives and the ability of individuals to purchase education in a credit-constrained economy. A model is developed that shows how individual decision-making is affected in a small economy when it opens up to trade. Empirical results indicate that credit constraints are an important factor influencing school enrollment rates, particularly in low income countries. As a result, countries with low human capital stocks tend to increase their accumulation of human capital with increased trade. The response in high income countries is more muted.     

Human capital,innovation, and growth

This paper explores the interaction between human capital and innovation in the process of economic growth. Using a model of endogenous growth, we focus on how taxes and other policy instruments affect the incentives to invest in human capital. In contrast to many other growth models we find that the taxation of human capital has a substantial negative effect on its accumulation. This in turn reduces innovation and, consequently, the income growth rate. More surprisingly, other policies that are intended to stimulate growth may have opposing effects on innovation and the accumulation of human capital. For example, while subsidies to research and to intermediate inputs do have positive effects on innovation and growth, they lead to a lower stock of human capital, in the empirically relevant case when the elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption is low.     

Globalization and economic inequality in the short and long run: The case of South Korea 1975–1995

We analyse the determinants of the Gini coefficient for income and expenditure in South Korea between 1975 and 1995. In both cases, we do not find support for the Kuznets inverted-U hypothesis. From an economic globalization viewpoint, the opening of goods markets reduces income inequality in both the short run (the Gini coefficient for income) and the long run (the Gini coefficient for expenditure). On the other hand, the opening of capital markets increases income inequality in both the short and the long run, although the latter is not statistically significant. These results suggest that the effect of economic globalization on income inequality has two routes and two different speeds.     

The Supply Side of the Race Between Demand and Supply: Policies to Foster Skill in the Modern Economy

In his celebrated book on income inequality, Jan Tinbergen (1975) wrote about the race between demand and supply in determining the evolution of wages and inequality. The demand side of the recent labor market is well understood. Skill-biased technical change favors skilled workers in many different economic environments. The supply side is less well understood. In the Netherlands, until recently, the supply side was winning and the returns to education were declining or stagnant. The exact reasons for this phenomenon are not well understood. Recently, however, there is evidence that suggests that the returns to schooling are increasing and that demand is outstripping supply, as it has done in most developed countries around the world. This has produced rising wage inequality. Unless more active supply side measures are undertaken, this trend is likely to continue. This problem, joined with the persistent problem of immigrant assimilation and the growing role of immigrants in the Dutch economy, renews interest in the supply side of the labor market. This lecture examines the determinants of the supply of skills in the short run and the long run. It examines the roles of short- term credit constraints and long-term family factors in fostering or retarding skill accumulation. It summarizes the evidence on a number of policy proposals to foster skills including early childhood programs, programs to alleviate short-term financial pressure, job training and second chance programs, and tax policies. This lecture stresses the cumulative dynamic nature of skill production and the importance of recognizing that skill begets skill in designing suitable policies to reduce inequality and foster economic growth. While the evidence is based on American data, the lessons are relevant for economies around the world. Specific lessons for the Netherlands are emphasized.     

Does insurance‐growth nexus hold for Malaysia?

The study investigates the impact of insurance activities on economic growth in Malaysia over the period 1990–2015. Combined cointegration in the presence of identified structural breaks was used to confirm the existence of long‐run relationships among economic growth, insurance activities, human capital, physical capital, and industrial production. The findings indicate feedback effects between insurance activities and economic growth in the long run. The study provides new insights for policymaking to enhance economic growth via insurance activities.