Economic and Monetary Union – Current Fiscal Disturbances and the Future

At the moment of its setting up the Economic and Monetary Union did not meet the criteria of the optimum currency area. Neither does it today. The crisis of public finance in the eurozone results from the abandonment public finance reforms, lack of consistency in enforcing the decision of the Stability and Growth Pact and, additionally, economic recession and financial crisis. Further functioning of the eurozone will depend on radical reforms of public finance and structural reforms enhancing efficiency of the market as an adjustment mechanism, and competitiveness of economies. The very establishment of the European Stabilization Mechanism and European Financial Stability cannot make up for the above mentioned necessary undertakings. It is important to change the socioeconomic model existing in the EU member countries.     

ADMINISTRATIVE CHANGE IN THE EU: A CROSS‐COUNTRY EMPIRICAL STUDY ON THE CONTEXTUAL DETERMINANTS OF NPM REFORM RHETORIC

Framed within the paradigm of New Public Management (NPM), structural reforms in the EU aimed at modernizing the public administrations of Member States (MSs) have long since been a priority area of the EU's economic policy. Since the 1990s, these reforms have been sharply intensified across European countries with the declared purpose of enhancing economy, efficiency and effectiveness in their national public sectors’ organizations. In line with the European Commission's recent research initiatives in search for novel quantitative data on NPM in the EU, this paper studies European parties’ NPM reform rhetoric. More specifically, it investigates the MSs’ institutional, economic and political context within which parties have declared their intention of reforming national administrative systems. Thus, it sheds light on the MSs’ domestic factors that are associated with the diffusion of the NPM values across the political discourse of EU's national parties.     

Fiscal transparency,government effectiveness and government spending efficiency: Some international evidence based on panel data approach

The global financial crisis and the debt crisis of the EU countries revealed serious weaknesses in fiscal reporting. As a consequence, uncertainties regarding the real situation of the public accounts of the countries raised doubts in relation to the effectiveness of government policies. Since then, countries are undertaking reforms in order to improve fiscal transparency. This paper analyzes whether countries are making efforts to enhance fiscal transparency, and whether fiscal transparency affects government effectiveness and government spending efficiency. We consider two channels through which this effect occurs. The first channel is indirect and it works through public debt. The second channel is the direct effect that transparency has on government effectiveness and government spending efficiency once transparency enhances accountability and thus the task of resource allocation. We use a sample of 82 countries (68 developing and 14 developed) for the period 2006–2014, and panel data analysis. Comparing the scores of fiscal transparency between 2006 and 2014, we observe that approximately 80 per cent of the countries made efforts to improve fiscal transparency. The results suggest fiscal transparency is important to reduce public debt and to improve government effectiveness and government spending efficiency.     

Constitutionalism and credibility in reforming economies1

There has been relatively little investigation of the effect of constitutional transformations on the economic transition in post‐communist countries. We develop a simple signalling model in which constitutionalism – a commitment to limit political power and provide judicial defence of basic rights – reinforces the credibility of pro‐market candidates’ electoral promises and boosts public support for economic reforms. These findings are tested using opinion poll data on public support for reform in Central and Eastern Europe, and in the former Soviet Union, in the 1990s. In a two‐stage procedure we show that public support for market reforms is higher in countries where incumbents have taken deliberate steps to increase political accountability and judicial independence. Public support also spurs actual economic reform.     

Cyclicality of Fiscal Policy in Latin America over the period 1990 ‐ 2015

Latin American countries experienced important changes in the 2000s. The implementation of fiscal reforms, public debt reduction and the high level of accumulated reserves gave them more policy space than in the past. As a result, Latin American countries were able to implement countercyclical policies to face the negative economic and social consequences associated with the recent macroeconomic shock. Some countries performed better than others. In particular, Social Democratic and Centrist governments enjoyed more fiscal space; they had realized larger budget surpluses over the good years and were able to cope with the crisis without impairing their fiscal conditions. Yet, Latin America has experienced a public finance deterioration in the most recent years. While governments are showing an increasing ability on taxation they are still facing some problems on the expenditure side. As a result, fiscal policy returned acyclical after the period of the crisis. The sustainability of public accounts may be strengthened increasing tax pressure on the richest, reducing tax evasion and improving current spending efficiency. However, the increasing political problems are putting many questions about future trends of public finance in the region.     

Origins of reform resistance and the Southern European regime

With a particular interest for Southern Europe, this contribution develops a classification of obstacles to economic policy reforms. This classification covers approaches ranging from classical economics and political-economic explanations to more innovative explanations linked to behavioral economics. The subsequent part analyzes qualitatively and quantitatively to which extent the “Southern European regime” may imply a particular relevance of some of the potential reform obstacles classified before. We derive “reform ability profiles” which quantify several of the reform obstacles (or reform drivers) to compare EU countries in their likely reform predisposition. These profiles confirm particular Southern European weaknesses which tend to reduce the political-economic feasibility of long-term reforms: a low effectiveness in poverty protection, high intertemporal discounting and uncertainty avoidance, a poor information level of the population and deeply shattered trust in national institutions. In a microeconometric analysis based on Eurobarometer survey data, the analysis leaves the highly aggregated level and looks into the individual heterogeneity in reform acceptance. It is shown that several of the reform obstacles identified in theory are also empirically correlated with the individual inclination to accept reforms.     

Transmission of the 2007–2008 financial crisis in advanced countries of the European Union

The aim of this paper is to identify the main factors responsible for the 2007–2008 crisis development and transmission across the 10 developed European Union (EU) countries. In order to achieve this objective, trade and financial linkages, crisis contagion from the United States and EU countries and countries' internal and external economic vulnerabilities are examined. The results of logistic regression model covering the period from 2002 to 2012 presented in this paper indicate that the transmission of the crisis occurred through contagion from the United States but also from other EU countries. Additionally, the empirical results confirm that high inflation, a decrease in the exchange rate, and a decrease in the US long-term interest rates increased the probability of the 2007–2008 financial crisis.     

Political economy of eastern enlargement of the European Union: Budgetary costs and reforms in voting rules

Eastern European countries are likely to be major recipients of European Union (EU) funds after membership, which has created serious concern among incumbent members. The EU has devised reforms of budgetary rules to limit the funds that will flow to the East. Using a political economy model and drawing on the experience of previous enlargements, this paper argues that such pre-accession reforms will be ineffective because they can be reversed by a coalition of Eastern European countries after membership. The paper then estimates budgetary costs of eastern enlargement. A better way to resolve budgetary concerns is to reform voting rules rather than budgetary rules, before eastern enlargement.     

Debt and Economic Growth in the European Union: A Panel Granger Causality Approach

This paper contributes to empirical investigation of the causality relationships between real gross domestic product (GDP) growth and the growth of three debt categories, namely public, foreign and private debt, in the universe of the 28 European Union (EU) countries during the past decade. Using panel Granger causality estimations, we find statistically relevant bidirectional causality relationships between public debt and economic growth for the periods both before and after the outbreak of the recent financial crisis. Moreover, there is clear evidence of economic growth’s contribution to decreasing public debt.     

Turning the page? EU fiscal consolidation in the wake of the crisis

The fiscal cost of the financial and economic crisis in Europe is huge. The paper provides provisional estimates of this cost and looks at its implications for the sustainability of public finances, taking into account also the impact of aging populations. The historical experience suggests that economic growth is persistently lowered in the aftermath of financial crisis, making fiscal consolidation more difficult yet all the more essential. Meanwhile the timing of the exit from fiscal stimulus and subsequent fiscal consolidation must reconcile sustainability and stabilisation goals—a delicate balancing act. The paper will argue in favour of structural reform to boost the economic growth potential alongside fiscal consolidation. The fiscal coordination framework in the EU, together with the Europe 2020 strategy, is seen to underpin this approach.     

“欧洲学期”:欧盟改善经济治理的重要一步

主权债务危机充分暴露出欧盟内部经济治理方面的体制性缺陷,也让成员国看到深化欧盟内部融合、增进财政预算和宏观经济政策协调的必要性。"欧洲学期"就是欧盟在债务危机恶化之际推出的一项重大改革举措,是完善欧盟经济治理的重要内容。因此,对这一机制的研究显得尤为必要。本文从"欧洲学期"机制的框架内容、创新之处、存在的问题、实施现状和预期政策效应等方面着手,试图对其做出较为客观全面的剖析,并给出初步的评价。     

Foreign direct investment and institutional reform: evidence and an application to Portugal

We examine the role of geographic, economic, and institutional factors in attracting Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Europe, using a cross-section of inward bilateral investments. We estimate and assess the expected benefits, the required reform efforts, and the efficiency of reform options corresponding to a convergence of Portuguese institutions to EU standards. We conclude that improving home institutions is likely to have a quantitatively very significant role in attracting FDI. Geographical and market size factors also play a role. Reforms promoting the independence of financial institutions and a leaner bureaucracy, lowering political risk and corruption, and improving the investment code may significantly affect the amount of bilateral inward FDI that is targeted to Portugal.     

Product Market Reform and Innovation in the EU*

European Union countries have implemented widespread reforms to product markets to stimulate competition, innovation, and economic growth. We provide empirical evidence that the reforms carried out under the EU Single Market Programme (SMP) were associated with increased product market competition, as measured by a reduction in average profitability, and with a subsequent increase in innovation intensity and productivity growth for manufacturing sectors. Our analysis exploits exogenous variation in the expected impact of the SMP across countries and industries to identify the effects of reforms on average profitability, and the effects of profitability on innovation and productivity growth.     

Global Financial Regulations:An Antidote to Economic Predicament

Due to the lack of public order in the international financial arena, asset bubbles and resource misallocations persisted over a long period of time and resulted in global financial crisis in 2008. Global financial rules, which can take on a role like that of WTO in the international trade, are urgently needed for global economic recovery. They will balance the pressure of economic restructuring between large and small countries, and push forward some countries' domestic reforms which may hardly be implemented due to domestic politics.     

基于欧债危机的欧盟多层次区域治理

本文基于大量翔实的统计数据,首先分析部分欧元区成员国陷入主权债务危机的原因与表现,然后深入研究重债国、欧元区和欧盟的综合治理措施。结果发现,产业结构不合理、贸易逆差较大、政府收支失衡、统一货币政策与分散财政政策并存等内因是导致危机的关键,全球金融危机是重要加速器。针对欧债危机的欧盟多层次区域治理,集短期应急措施、中期整改措施与长期预警机制的建立为一体,是超国家机构与主权国家之间协调一致的共同治理,对于全球治理具有重要示范效应。     

Budget surplus goal experiments in Australia and Sweden

From the mid-1990s until the 2008 financial crisis, two countries, each with different political, administrative and capitalist traditions, embarked on a radical macroeconomic policy experiment. Australia and Sweden took earlier New Public Management reforms to an ideological extreme, and pursued a profit-like goal for the public sector, in promising and delivering annual budget surpluses. From a historical institutionalist perspective, we challenge existing public choice theories and the guardian-spender framework to show how fears of crisis, party dynamics and ideological reassessments on the centre-left, and the elevation of finance and economics ministers and ministries resulted in an unlikely political and electoral consensus. Furthermore, this occurred without constitutionalised or officially strict rules, as has been the trend in other countries, but was achieved through less formal yet influential ‘rules of the game’ with stricter interpretations. What is even more perplexing is that Australia and Sweden do not have superior economic records to show for this experiment and experienced the same challenges as other countries during the 2008 financial crisis. Yet, they are still reluctant to definitely abandon the policy.     

Regret theory and policy reform ∗

This paper offers an explanation of policy reforms undertaken in times of an economic crisis. Our explanation does not depend either on conflicts of interests between different socio-economic groups, or on the informational imperfection about the effectiveness of the current policy regime. The single decision maker in our model experiences regrets when the uncertain reform outcome is worse than the status quo. We show that an economic crisis which reduces the status-quo income makes the regret-experiencing decision maker more eager to undertake reforms in times of an economic crisis, despite the higher utility costs of adjustments.     

Economic reform of the electricity industries of Central and Eastern Europe

The purpose of the paper is the following: firstly, to chart how much economic reform of CEE electricity industries has taken place to date; secondly, to discuss why progress has been so limited; and thirdly, to consider the prospects over the next few years. In charting economic progress to date, we will consider and discuss progress in electricity price unbundling and rebalancing; in utility commercialization, in industry and market restructuring and liberalization; and in privatization, as well as the development of economic regulation. For the reasons outlined above, we will explore the pricing issues in some detail as they are essential for understanding the difficulties in making progress in the other aspects of economic reform. The analysis concentrates on the ten countries with which the EU has and Association Agreement and who are stated candidates for EU membership (the EU 10).     

Effectiveness of R&D subsidies during the crisis: firm-level evidence across EU countries

This paper is one of the first attempts in the literature to evaluate the effectiveness of R&D policies in Europe during the great crisis of the late 2000s. Using homogenous firm-level data for the largest EU Member States over the period 2007–2009, we test whether manufacturing firms receiving public subsidies spent more on R&D. The analysis is performed using both non-parametric techniques and parametric estimation methods accounting for the possible endogenous selectivity of R&D subsidies. The hypothesis of full crowding-out is rejected in all countries under exam as firms did not replace their own resources with public grants. However, these firms did not allocate additional funds to research and hence, differently from earlier works, we do not find evidence for additionality effects of R&D subsidies. Our estimates indicate that, albeit not expansive, public subsidies to R&D thwarted the reduction of firm R&D efforts in the aftermath of economic crisis.     

Asymmetric effects of fiscal policy in EU and OECD countries

In this article, we take account of an evaluation of the short- and medium-term effects of the transmission mechanism of fiscal policy in EU and OECD countries and their dependence on the state of the economy and fiscal behaviour. Our findings indicate that (i) across EU member states the impact of government spending on economic performance is larger in the accession than in core member states, (ii) since the onset of the economic/financial crisis the government spending multipliers have become larger in both core and accession EU member states, and (iii) a comparison with fiscal responses in the OECD countries shows robustness of our estimates. The conclusion implies that the austerity measures present a substantial drag for economic activity in accession EU countries. Thus, we may state that not considering the fiscal behaviour and state of the economy gives misleading fiscal multiplier effects, which in turn lead to the adoption of inappropriate fiscal measures that even worsen a country's economic situation.