Us Debt and Deficits: Time to Reverse the Trend

This article provides a primer on budget deficits from the creation of the federal government. Today federal government spending is 24% of GDP (compared with its historical average of 8.8%), fuelling debt of historic levels. The only effective way to reduce debt levels is to cut entitlement programmes and then set a tax rate sufficient, over the course of the business cycle, to fund government spending.     

Government debt,learning and the term structure

Does a change in the public׳s holdings of government debt affect the term structure of interest rates? Empirical analysis using a VAR model indicates that a rise in these holdings of the real debt-to-GDP ratio increases both the three-month and ten-year U.S. nominal yields in a statistically significant manner. The maturity composition of debt is also found to matter: innovations in holdings of long-term debt affect the term structure, while increases in short-term debt affect inflation expectations. These effects of changes in holdings of debt on the yield curve can be derived in a general equilibrium model in which the government issues exponentially-maturing riskless debt, financed by lump-sum taxes, and the optimizing agents are adaptive learners. On calibrating the average maturity of debt in the model to match that of U.S. Treasury debt since the 1980s, I find that positive innovations in government debt lead to increases in asset yields. This is because agents do not learn the principle of Ricardian equivalence exactly, and perceive increases in holdings of government bonds as a rise in their net wealth. Imposing rational expectations on the agents eliminates this channel, and changes in holdings of government debt have no effect on yields. The learning model also implies that as the real debt-to-GDP ratio increases, and the average maturity of debt becomes longer, the agents become less likely to learn that Ricardian equivalence holds.     

地方政府融资平台存在缘由与规制思路

随着政府融资平台筹资的扩大,政府性债务余额也在不断积累,地方政府融资平台的问题已经越来越多的摆到了各级政府领导的案头上,以举债促发展、保民生似乎已经成为各级政府运行的模式。一面是堆积如山的累债、积债,一面是各级政府的政绩工程、民心工程建设仍在如火如荼的展开。我们通过对部分地方政府投融资平台运行状况进行调研,分析目前地方政府融资平台的起因,探讨地方政府融资平台的建设思路,提出地方政府融资平台的规制建议。     

Reducing government debt in the presence of inequality

What are the welfare effects of government debt? In particular, what are the welfare consequences of government debt reductions? We answer these questions with the help of an incomplete markets economy with production. Households are subject to uninsurable income shocks. We make several contributions. First, by targeting the skewed wealth and earnings distribution of the US economy in our calibration, we identify inequality as the major driver of the welfare effects of public debt/GDP changes. Second, we show that in order to fully gauge the welfare consequences and the political feasibility of government debt changes, it is crucial to consider the transitional dynamics between stationary equilibria. Our results therefore have important implications for the design of debt reduction policies. Since the skewed wealth distribution generates a large fraction of borrowing-constrained households, a public debt reduction should be non-linear, such that the tax burden is postponed into the future.     

浅谈银行如何有效防范地方政府融资风险

在94年国家进行分税制改革之后,财政收入向中央政府集中,这加剧了各地方政府事权与财权不平衡的局面,政府融资平台为地方政府拓宽了融资渠道。进入2008以来,受国际金融危机的影响,我国实施了宽松的货币政策和积极的财政政策,推动了各地方政府融资平台飞速发展,在应对金融危机方面起到了重要作用。但是地方政府融资债务疯狂增长下其隐藏的风险已经逐渐凸显出来,值得我们关注。本文从银行的角度浅析了银行如何防范来自地方政府融资的风险。     

环境规制、流动性风险与债务融资成本

环境规制会影响企业经营和银行对企业的风险评价,进而影响企业债务融资成本。本文以我国A股2012~2017年重污染行业上市公司为研究对象,研究了环境规制对债务融资成本的具体影响。研究结果显示,环境规制强度对重污染企业债务融资成本具有正向影响作用;且这种影响效应在小规模企业和非国有企业更加显著;进一步研究发现,环境规制通过流动性风险路径影响企业债务融资成本。本文的研究丰富了企业债务融资成本相关文献,对企业加强债务融资管理与政府实施环保政策具有一定的启示作用。     

Internalizing intergenerational externalities by regionalization

The emission of long-lived pollutants and public debt policies are related by the joint problem of intergenerational externalities. This paper examines both phenomena from the local perspective, in a model with interregional household mobility. We conclude that local environmental agencies have incentives to internalize all intergenerational pollution externalities, provided all rents of immobile production factors, including waste emissions, are appropriated by the regions. Contrary to widespread belief, however, neutrality of local public debt is not guaranteed in general. Shifts in the intertemporal pattern of local taxes change the net wealth of local property owners if distortionary residence-based taxes are imposed to service the local debt.     

Dynamics of fiscal financing in the United States

General equilibrium models that include policy rules for government spending, lump-sum transfers, and distortionary taxation on labor and capital income and on consumption expenditures are fit to US data under rich specifications of fiscal policy rules to obtain several results. First, the best-fitting model allows many fiscal instruments to respond to debt. Second, responses of aggregates to fiscal policy shocks under rich rules vary considerably from responses where only non-distortionary fiscal instruments finance debt. Third, in the short run, all fiscal instruments except labor taxes react strongly to debt, but long-run intertemporal financing comes from all components of the government’s budget constraint. Fourth, debt-financed fiscal shocks trigger long-lasting dynamics; short-run and long-run multipliers can differ markedly.     

Public infrastructure investment,output dynamics,and balanced budget fiscal rules

We study the dynamic macroeconomic effects of public infrastructure investment under a balanced budget fiscal rule, using an overlapping generations model of a small open economy. The government finances public investment by employing distortionary labor taxes. The balanced budget rule implies a negative short-run output multiplier that exceeds (in absolute terms) the positive long-run output multiplier. Larger public capital spillovers sharpen the intertemporal output tradeoff. In contrast to conventional results regarding public investment shocks, we obtain dampened cyclical responses for plausible parameter values. The cyclical dynamics arise from the interaction between the labor tax rate, the tax base, and the intergenerational spillover effects. We show that financing scenarios involving public debt creation can substantially reduce the short-run output contraction and the transitional macroeconomic fluctuations induced by public investment.     

The Impact of Thin‐Capitalization Rules on External Debt Usage – A Propensity Score Matching Approach

Thin‐capitalization rules (TCRs) aim at limiting the tax advantage of internal debt financing by restricting the tax deductibility of the corresponding interest expenses. This article examines how subsidiaries of multinational firms respond to a change in the German thin‐capitalization legislation. The empirical analysis not only demonstrates that the TCR effectively restricts internal debt financing, it also suggests that firms are able to avoid taxation of interest by substituting external for internal debt. The empirical approach applies propensity score matching techniques and exploits the German tax reform 2001 to solve endogeneity problems.     

地方政府融资平台贷款风险的分析与思考

为了有效防范财政金融风险,保证经济持续健康发展和社会稳定,国务院部署加强地方政府融资平台的管理和处理融资平台公司的债务工作。本文从地方政府融资平台贷款的现状,分析了其内在组织结构,并通过分析平台贷款的潜在风险,相应的给出了一些规范地方政府融资平台贷款的对策。     

When Does Government Debt Crowd Out Investment?

We examine when government debt crowds out investment for the US economy using an estimated New Keynesian model with detailed fiscal specifications and accounting for monetary and fiscal policy interactions. Whether investment is crowded in or out in the short term depends on policy shocks triggering debt expansions: higher debt can crowd in investment for cutting capital tax rates or increasing government investment. Contrary to the conventional view, no systematic relationships between real interest rates and investment exist, explaining why reduced‐form regressions are inconclusive about crowding out. At longer horizons, distortionary financing is important for the negative investment response to debt. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Instability and concentration in the distribution of wealth

We consider a setup in which infinitely lived households face idiosyncratic investment risk and show that in this case the equilibrium distribution of wealth becomes increasingly right-skewed over time until wealth concentrates entirely at the top. The households in our setup are identical in terms of their patience and their abilities, and we assume that there are no redistributive mechanisms—neither explicit in the form of government tax or fiscal policies, nor implicit in the form of limited intergenerational transfers. Our results demonstrate that the presence of such redistributive mechanisms alone ensures the stability of the distribution of wealth over time.     

Powerful CEOs,debt financing,and leasing in Chinese SMEs: Evidence from threshold model

This study investigates the impacts of CEO power on firm financing policies (i.e. debt financing and operating leasing) using the Caner and Hansen (2004) instrumental variable threshold regressions approach. The sample consists of a panel of 297 Chinese listed small and medium sized enterprises (SMEs) over the period 2009–2012. The empirical results indicate that there are threshold effects in the CEO power-debt relationship and CEO power-operating lease relationship. In particular, we find that firms tend to use more debt financing (and operating leasing) when CEO power index below a certain threshold level; beyond the threshold level, CEO tends to manipulate firm capital structure to pursue their own interests, thus using less debt financing and operating leasing. In addition, our estimation results suggest a positive relationship between debt and operating leases when CEO power is smaller than certain threshold, while it becomes negative if the power index exceeds the threshold level.     

Pushing the limit? Fiscal policy in the European Monetary Union

Governments are confronted with the growing realization that they face fiscal limits on the size of debt and deficits relative to GDP. These fiscal limits invalidate Bohn's criterion for fiscal sustainability, which allows explosive debt relative to GDP, eventually violating any fiscal limit. We derive restrictions on a fiscal rule, necessary for the government to eliminate explosive behavior. These restrictions require that the response of the primary surplus to debt be relatively strong, and that the primary surplus be cointegrated with both debt and output. We test these empirical implications for a panel of eleven EMU countries, and find that they are satisfied, implying that fiscal policy does not create explosive behavior.     

股权分置改革对公司股权融资偏好的影响——以青岛海尔为例

本文以青岛海尔为例,分析了上市公司在股权分置改革前后基于股权融资偏好假说融资方式的变化。股改前,由于股权分割导致流通股和非流通股的获利机制不同,通过股权融资获取超额收益和套取现金成了非流通大股东的重要获利方式,因此,上市公司的再融资决策基本是随股权融资政策的变化而变化,债务融资和内源融资成了股权融资的附属和补充;股改后,大股东和中小股东利益趋同,以前的股权融资超额收益也在逐步消失,大股东利益格局的变化以及证券市场的规范化正逐步促使上市企业的融资决策理性化和多样化。     

苍南深化投融资体制改革和基础设施市场化的思考

苍南县是浙江南部的人口大县,基础设施建设资金需求与政府财政投入不足的矛盾突出;基础设施市场化程度不高,融资方式单一,运行成本高等问题制约苍南的经济社会发展,本文以矛盾和问题作为切入点,旨在提出深化融资体制改革和基础设施市场化的建议,创新苍南投融资体制机制,积极构筑融资平台,全面培育经济社会的增长点。     

中小企业债务融资与公司价值关系研究——基于中小板上市公司的实证研究

中小企业在我国经济社会发展中具有重要的战略地位,但是融资难问题却一直制约着中小企业的发展。文章以2010年到2012年我国中小企业板上市公司的数据为研究依据,进行实证检验,分析我国中小企业债务融资与企业价值的关系。研究发现,中小企业的债务融资与企业价值有着显著的正相关关系,尤其是银行借款融资对企业价值起到了积极的作用。因此,我国中小企业应该增加债务融资,尤其是增加银行借款融资的比重。所以,解决中小企业融资难、贷款难的问题刻不容缓。这篇文章旨在为我国中小企业进行融资以及政府的扶持提供具有一定参考价值的数据支持。     

Henry George's Perspective on War and Peace

This essay examines Henry George's perspective on war and peace. With justice added to the foundation in the way that Henry George proposes, the conditions of inequality and conflict that lead to war will no longer prevail. George saw that trade prohibitions furthered elite rule, militarization, and a worldview of “them” versus “us.” George's great contribution was to see how these big issues of War and Peace bore directly upon the constellation of rules governing the relationship of people to planet, humans to humus, earthlings to earth. Social arrangements not based on the fundamental and equal human right to the earth lead inevitably to a gross imbalance of political power and thus to government corruption, odious public debt, war, and preparations for further war. Although he warned us of what might befall the United States if it took the imperialist path, George seemed hopeful that the highest and best moral purpose of our nation would prevail. The paper concludes with an assessment of contemporary devices that protect the interests of the few over the many—subsidies, the ballooning national debt, the ever‐widening wealth gap, megacities, and the full‐spectrum‐dominance objective of U.S. imperialism.     

Benefit Transfers in Italy: An Empirical Study of Mobility Lists in the Milan Area

This paper uses administrative data on mobility lists in the largest economic region of Italy, Lombardia, to test whether the more favourable treatment of older workers, who can draw benefits longer and transfer a larger sum to potential employers, affects in a positive way their hazard from unemployment into a permanent job. Our reduced form estimates show that older workers who draw benefits longer have a significantly lower hazard than their younger colleagues. The reduction in the hazard from unemployment is particularly pronounced for older women in the sample. Apparently, the negative effect of the treatment on the supply side, due to a higher reservation wage, prevails in our data over the positive effect, stimulated by the larger potential benefit transfers. We conclude that, if the aim of the policy is to increase the hazard from the list into a permanent job, the treatment should be modified either by reducing passive income support or by increasing the potential for benefit transfers, or, finally, by reducing the entitlement period.