Resiliency of the limit order book

This study contributes to our understanding of the liquidity replenishment process in limit order book markets. A measure of resiliency is proposed and quantified for different liquidity shocks through the impulse response functions generated from a high frequency vector autoregression. The model reveals a rich set of liquidity dynamics. Liquidity shocks were found to have immediate detrimental effects on other dimensions of liquidity but the replenishment process generally occurs quickly, indicating limit order books are resilient. Cross-sectionally, resiliency is found to be consistently high across all large stocks, consistent with competition for liquidity provision coming from computerized algorithms. For other stocks, greater variation in resiliency is observed, indicating more selective participation by these liquidity providers.     

流动性与公司财务政策的选择

本文以流动性对资产预期报酬率的影响为逻辑起点,以公司财务政策对公司权益资本和债务资本流动性的影响为基本视角,通过对相关收益与成本的剖析,对公司现行财务制度安排作出了合理的解释,并为公司财务政策的选择建立一个基于流动性的分析框架。     

The shadow costs of repos and bank liability structure

Making use of a structural model that allows for optimal liquidity management, we study the role that repos play in a bank׳s financing structure. In our model the bank׳s assets consist of illiquid loans and liquid reserves and are financed by a combination of repos, long-term debt, deposits and equity. Repos are a cheap source of funding, but they are subject to an exogenous rollover risk. We show that the use of repos inflicts two types of indirect (“shadow”) costs on the bank׳s shareholders: first, it induces the bank to maintain higher liquid reserves in order to alleviate the additional default risk; second, it adds to the cost of long-term debt financing. These shadow costs limit the bank׳s appetite for cheap but unstable repo funding. This effect is, however, weakened under poor returns on risky assets, access to deposit funding and the depositor preference rule. We also analyze the impact of a liquidity coverage ratio, payout restrictions and a leverage ratio on the bank׳s financing choices and show that all these tools are able to curb the bank׳s reliance on repos.     

An agent-based model of payment systems

We lay out and simulate a multi-agent, multi-period model of an RTGS payment system. At the beginning of the day, banks choose how much costly liquidity to allocate to the settlement process. Then, they use it to execute an exogenous, random stream of payment orders. If a bank's liquidity stock is depleted, payments are queued until new liquidity arrives from other banks, imposing costs on the delaying bank. We study the equilibrium level of liquidity posted in the system, performing some comparative statics and obtaining insights on the efficiency of alternative system configurations.     

Trading cost expectations: Evidence from S&P 500 index replacement stock announcements

This paper tests the effect on stock value of an expected change in future trading costs. The capitalized value of a reduction in trading costs is hypothesized to increase the stock value, a trading cost effect. Improved liquidity reduces trading costs. Inclusion as an S&P 500 Index replacement stock is an event hypothesized to increase liquidity. We use 114 observations between January 1, 1983 and October 12, 1989 of stocks added to the Index as replacements for stocks removed. The abnormal return of each stock is regressed against the ratio of the bidask spread to the price of the stock, the change in trading volume of the stock, and the open interest in the Index futures contracts at the close of the month prior to the replacement announcement. We find that the positive abnormal returns for replacement stocks are related to increased daily trading volume after inclusion in the Index. Further, the trading cost effect is proportional to percentage bid-ask spreads prior to inclusion. The trading cost effect increases as trading in derivatives of the Index increases. The volume and stock price changes after replacement are not transitory, indicating an improvement in liquidity. Three alternate hypotheses suggested in prior research to explain the abnormal returns for replacement stocks are tested. Testing each of the three models previously considered: price pressure, inelastic demand curves, and information, we find that none can be accepted with statistical confidence. The abnormal returns of Index replacement stocks are consistent with rational pricing of an anticipated reduction in future transaction costs. This anticipated reduction is capitalized in the value of the stock at the time of the replacement announcement. These results are consistent with a trading cost effect.     

Funding liquidity risk and the low-volatility anomaly: Evidence from the Taiwan stock market

We investigate whether the funding liquidity risk to institutional investors influences the negative relation between expected returns and variance (the ‘‘Low-volatility anomaly’’). With the Taiwan stock market as a setting, we implement a multivariate Markov switching model and use the funding liquidity risk to model the time-varying transition probabilities of the regime-switching process to capture changes in the funding liquidity risk regime. Our evidence documents that the low-volatility anomaly is most pronounced when there is high funding liquidity risk. When there is low funding liquidity risk, however, the low-volatility anomaly has a significant reversal. These results imply that the increased funding liquidity risk due to financial shock transmitted from parent banks is associated with higher selling pressure on institutional investors’ high-volatility stocks, leading to the low-volatility anomaly.     

Liquidity and firm value in an emerging market: Nonlinearity,political connections and corporate ownership

This study re-examines the relationship between liquidity and firm value in the emerging stock market of Malaysia, exploring the issues of nonlinearity and moderating variables. Using data for all non-financial firms traded on Bursa Malaysia over the sample period of 2000–2015, the results from the baseline quadratic model suggest stocks must be traded higher than the threshold liquidity level before reaping the benefit of larger firm value. Our key finding of a nonlinear relationship remains robust to alternative liquidity measures and estimation methods, as well as passing a series of endogeneity checks. Using an ideal candidate of lot size reduction for Malaysian stocks in May 2003 as exogenous liquidity shock, we establish the causal effect from liquidity to firm value. Further interaction analyses uncover three important moderating variables in the liquidity-firm value relationship, in which the value impact demands a more liquid market for Malaysian public firms with political connections, higher foreign nominee ownership and higher foreign institutional ownership.     

When continuous trading becomes continuous: The impact of institutional trading on the continuous trading system of the Warsaw Stock Exchange

This paper examines the impact of a large increase in the number of institutional traders on the performance of a continuous trading system using Polish stock market data. After the Polish pension reform in 1999, the domestic stock market experienced large inflows of money. We theoretically and empirically show that those stocks that are actively traded by pension funds display increases in the share of continuous trading and corresponding liquidity in this system, while no positive effects are found for other stocks. Moreover, we find spill-over effects to the call auction system.     

Labor's liquidity service and firing costs

This paper studies the specific effect that firing costs can have on firms facing liquidity constraints. When firing costs are zero and a time gap exists between production and its associated revenues, firing allows firms to hold on to their liquid assets by saving on wages, and thus, allows firms to cope better with liquidity shocks when external financing is too costly or unavailable. I refer to this feature as labor's liquidity service. Higher firing costs reduces the value of labor's liquidity service, and thus, increases firms' incentive for hoarding liquidity and reduces firms' demand for production inputs. In addition to this negative effect at the creation margin of production, firing costs have a relatively higher positive effect on the destruction margin of production of financially restricted firms. This paper presents a model that develops these ideas and shows that the presence of firing costs has a stronger negative effect on the output of firms facing liquidity constraints. Regression analysis, based on country-industry panel data sets, provides empirical evidence consistent with the liquidity service effect of firing costs. I find a relatively stronger negative effect of firing costs on the output of industries with higher liquidity requirements and a relatively stronger negative effect of firing costs on the output of small, and more likely financially constrained, firms.     

Inter-market competition for exchange traded funds

We examine how the different mix of informed and liquidity trading in the market for ETFs affects the nature of inter-market competition. We find that both the characteristics of the securities and the structures of the competing markets jointly determine the nature of inter-market competition. Given the superior execution quality on the ECNs and the low adverse selection costs in the ETF market, anonymous market such as the ECNs, attract both liquidity and informed traders. We also find that markets compete in a subset of ETFs. In addition, we find that quotebased competition is prevalent in the market for ETFs.     

The impact of reduced pre-trade transparency regimes on market quality

This paper studies the effects of pre-trade quote transparency on spread, price discovery and liquidity in an artificial limit order market with heterogeneous trading rules. Our agent-based numerical experiments suggest that full quote transparency incurs substantial transaction costs to traders and dampens trading activity in an order-driven market. Our finding reveals that exogenous restriction of displayed depth, up to several best quotes, does not benefit market performance. On the contrary, endogenous restriction of displayed quote depth, by means of iceberg orders, improves market quality in multiple dimensions: it reduces average transaction costs, maintains higher liquidity and moderate volatility, balances the limit order book, and enhances price discovery.     

Empirical evidence on the effects of delisting from the National Market System

This study analyzes empirical evidence related to changes in market value and liquidity characteristics of stocks, which are delisted from the National Market System (NMS) due to an elevation of NMS listing standards. Our results are thus relatively independent of the financial conditions of the firms prior to delisting. We document significant increase in bid-ask spreads and decrease in trading volume after delisting. A significant negative stock price reaction around the delisting announcement period is also observed. Both sets of findings suggest that delisting from NMS increases a firm’s cost of capital by adversely affecting the liquidity of its stock. (JEL: G14)     

Economic policy uncertainty and illiquidity return premium

In this study, we examine the relation between the price of liquidity, or illiquidity return premium, and the economic policy uncertainty (EPU). On average, an illiquid portfolio earns a 0.597% higher monthly return than a liquid portfolio. The results further show that the EPU index has a positive relationship with the illiquidity return premium. This indicates that investors require higher compensation for holding illiquid stocks when there is a higher economic uncertainty. We also show that EPU affects the illiquidity return premium through the market illiquidity channel. The rise of EPU could increase the risk of illiquid stocks and make investors more risk-averse, thereby requiring higher compensation for illiquidity. Finally, it is found that the relationship between EPU and the illiquidity return premium is stronger when market liquidity is impaired and during crises.     

Liquidity constrained exporters

I propose a model of international trade with liquidity constraints. If firms must pay a fixed entry cost in order to access foreign markets, and if they face liquidity constraints to finance these costs, only those firms that have sufficient liquidity are able to export. A set of firms could profitably export, but are prevented from doing so because they lack sufficient liquidity. More productive firms that generate large liquidity from their domestic sales, and wealthier firms that inherit a large amount of liquidity, are more likely to export. This model offers a potential explanation for the apparent lack of sensitivity of exports to exchange rate fluctuations. When the exchange rate appreciates, existing exporters lose competitiveness abroad, and are forced to reduce their exports. At the same time, the value of domestic assets owned by potential exporters increases. Some liquidity constrained exporters start exporting. This dampens the anti-competitiveness impact of a currency appreciation. Under some conditions, it may reverse it altogether and increase aggregate exports. In this sense, the model is able to rationalize the co-existence of competitive devaluations and competitive revaluations.     

Infrastructure-production system dynamics in national and regional systems: An econometric study of the Indian economy

Treating infrastructure inputs as quasi-fixed in the short run, a multi-equation econometric model of production-infrastructure (social overhead capital) interlinkages and adjustments is developed based on a flexible functional form. Adjustment dynamics are endogenized and costs of adjustments are explicitly incorporated. The model is estimated with regional and national data from India; results include optimal paths and speeds of adjustments for infrastructure inputs market inputs' own and cross-price elasticities and demand elasticities with respect to the level of output, infrastructure stocks and associated user costs; and production cost elasticities with respect to output and infrastructure stocks.     

Why is equity order flow so persistent?

Order flow in equity markets is remarkably persistent in the sense that order signs (to buy or sell) are positively autocorrelated out to time lags of tens of thousands of orders, corresponding to many days. Two possible explanations are herding, corresponding to positive correlation in the behavior of different investors, or order splitting, corresponding to positive autocorrelation in the behavior of single investors. We investigate this using order flow data from the London Stock Exchange for which we have membership identifiers. By formulating models for herding and order splitting, as well as models for brokerage choice, we are able to overcome the distortion introduced by brokerage. On timescales of less than a few hours the persistence of order flow is overwhelmingly due to splitting rather than herding. We also study the properties of brokerage order flow and show that it is remarkably consistent both cross-sectionally and longitudinally.     

权证发行对标的股票流动性的影响分析--基于中国股市的实证研究

本文通过实证方法研究了权证发行对标的股票流动性的影响。通过比较权证发行前后不同流动性指标变化情况发现：权证发行普遍增强了标的股票的流动性，认沽组标的股票的流动性改善最多，认购组次之，认购认沽组最差。对结果的分析发现，标的股票流动性的改善与权证发行后股价变化趋势密切相关，而认购组没有认浩组标的股票流动性改善多，有可能是由我国自身的市场机制引起的。     

Frequency competition and environmental costs: An application to European air transport liberalization

In this paper, we analyze symmetric frequency equilibria in airline markets; these equilibria are derived as multiproduct oligopoly solutions in a spatial competition model. Competitive equilibria are compared with a regulated equilibrium; in order to assess the welfare implications of European air transport liberalization, we compute numerical solutions using data for 21 regulated European interstate routes in 1990. We conclude that, following the introduction of competition in these markets, consumer welfare is significantly higher due to frequency increases and fare decreases. Profits decrease and, as a result of higher departure frequencies, environmental costs increase. However, the gains in consumer welfare more than compensate the decrease in profits and the rise in environmental costs.     

Investor heterogeneity and commonality in stock return and liquidity

This paper examines how the trading activities of different investor types are related to common return and liquidity movements. Using a unique dataset, we decompose the daily return and liquidity of individual stocks into price impact components attributable to trades of institutional investors and retail investors. We then investigate the variation of each component relative to market-wide return and liquidity. We show that institutional trades contribute more than retail trades to liquidity commonality. However, retail trades contribute more strongly to return co-movement. The incremental contribution of retail trades to the co-variability of stock returns is more pronounced for firms with high information asymmetry.     

Positional momentum and liquidity management; a bivariate rank approach

This paper introduces a new positional momentum management strategy based on the expected future ranks of asset returns and trade volume changes predicted by a bivariate Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. The new method is applied to a dataset of 1330 stocks traded on the NASDAQ between 2008 and 2016. It is shown that return ranks are correlated with their own past values and the current and past ranks of trade volume changes. This results leads to a new expected positional momentum strategy providing portfolios of predicted winners, conditional on past ranks of returns and volume changes. This approach further extends to positional liquidity management. The expected liquid positional strategy selects portfolios of stocks with the strongest realized or predicted increase in trading volume. These new positional management strategies outperform the standard momentum strategies and the equally weighted portfolio in terms of average returns and Sharpe ratio.