Estimating Market Growth for New Products: An Analogical Diffusion Model Approach

There has been a lot of interest in diffusion models as a basis for prelaunch estimates of the sales of new products, and indeed there have been several models developed that have achieved fairly good acceptance by new product managers. One of the limitations of such models, however, has been the requirement that a sales history for the new product, even a short one from a test market, for example, be available to derive the parameters of the model. For some types of products—consumer durables, services, industrial products, for example—a sales history isn't available. In this article, Professor Robert Thomas suggests some steps toward the development of models that incorporate the attractive features of diffusion models. His approach is to use, in a systematic way, the sales histories of products that can be considered to have analogous features from a buyer's point of view. He illustrates the approach by forecasting the sales of a new service.     

Industrial publicity: One of the best promotional tools

One of the most frequently forgotten and misunderstood promotional tools in industrial marketing is publicity. Yet most surveys rank editorial material in trade journals as one of the most important sources of information used by industrial customers in making buying decisions and evaluating products. This article discusses how industrial marketers can use publicity as an effective promotional tool, with emphasis on its major advantages, namely, high credibility and low cost per contact.     

Launch Strategy and New Product Performance: An Empirical Examination in The Netherlands

Although previous research has investigated the concept and contents of new product performance, there is still no consensus about the managerial decisions that constitute a launch strategy and how such decisions impact new product performance. The research objective for the present investigation is to assess the impact of launch strategy and market characteristics on new product performance and to test the stability of this impact across consumer and industrial products. Data were collected on 272 consumer and industrial new products in The Netherlands through a mail questionnaire approach. We based our definition of a launch strategy on an extensive literature review and interviews with managers. Our conceptualization of new product performance represented two dimensions, namely, market acceptance and product performance. The market acceptance dimension reflects the new product's market position and sales levels. The product performance dimension refers to the quality and technical performance level of the new product. This richer specification of the dependent variable provides a better view on which launch decisions impact which dimensions of new product performance. The impact of launch strategy was higher for market acceptance than for product performance, overall and for both consumer and industrial subsamples separately. In line with results from recent studies, overall, market acceptance is influenced by the product's innovativeness, timing of market entry, breadth of assortment, branding, pricing, the objective of increasing market penetration, and competitor reactions. Product performance is influenced by the product's innovativeness, breadth of assortment, and by the objective of using an existing market. Analyzing the consumer and industrial products separately showed that the general picture of launch decisions and their impact on the dependent variables was comparable across the total sample and both subsamples, indicating that heterogeneous samples in new product launch research may not cause major interpretation problems. Second, the analyses revealed that some launch decisions are more important in attaining new product success for consumer products than for industrial products, and vice versa. While these decisions do not lead to contradicting results in the samples, they show that some decisions may be especially relevant for only consumer or industrial products. We discuss research and managerial implications of the results.     

Launch Decisions and New Product Success: An Empirical Comparison of Consumer and Industrial Products

Many articles have investigated new product development success and failure. However, most of them have used the vantage point of characteristics of the product and development process in this research. In this article we extend this extensive stream of research, looking at factors affecting success; however, we look at the product in the context of the launch support program. We empirically answer the question of whether successful launch decisions differ for consumer and industrial products and identify how they differ. From data collected on over 1,000 product introductions, we first contrast consumer product launches with industrial product launches to identify key differences and similarities in launch decisions between market types. For consumer products, strategic launch decisions appear more defensive in nature, as they focus on defending current market positions. Industrial product strategic launch decisions seem more offensive, using technology and innovation to push the firm to operate outside their current realm of operations and move into new markets. The tactical marketing mix launch decisions (product, place, promotion and price) also differ markedly across the products launched for the two market types. Successful products were contrasted with failed products to identify those launch decisions that discriminate between both outcomes. Here the differences are more of degree rather than principle. Some launch decisions were associated with success for consumer and industrial products alike. Launch successes are more likely to be broader assortments of more innovative product improvements that are advertised with print advertising, independent of market. Other launch decisions uniquely related to success per product type, especially at the marketing mix level (pricing, distribution, and promotion in particular). The launch decisions most frequently made by firms are not well aligned with factors associated with higher success. Additionally, comparing the decisions associated with success to the recommendations for launches from the normative literature suggests that a number of conventional heuristics about how to launch products of each type will actually lead to failure rather than success.     

Accelerating the Durable Replacement Cycle with Marketing Mix Variables

In many established product categories, a large component of sales is due to the replacement of existing units. Because of the long expected lifetime of durables, replacement decisions can often be postponed by the consumer. In light of this, one marketing strategy for manufacturers of such products may be to accelerate the timing of product replacement decisions for buyers planning to replace. In this article, Barry Bayus presents the results of his investigation of the effect of marketing efforts on shortening the replacement cycle. Such information can be used by new product managers to forecast more accurately long-term sales and to help decide when to introduce new products (e.g., with enhanced features). Using data on color television purchases, he shows that the marketing variables of price, advertising, new features and styling are related to the timing of discretionary replacements. Further, these data suggest that price has the most impact in accelerating replacement purchases.     

Comparative industrial advertising: The content and frequency

Comparative advertising is the pratice of comparing two or more named or unnamed products in an advertisement. The purpose of this study was to examine the use of comparative advertising in widely circulated industrial publications. The study examined approximately 2100 full-page advertisements in major trade publications for the years 1970, 1975, and 1980. It was found that comparative advertising is not the dominant format for industrial journal advertising. Further, there was a significant decrease in the use of comparative advertising from 1975 to 1980. Nevertheless, when industrial advertisers use comparative advertising, they tend to rely more frequently on implied comparisons rather than on the more aggressive, strictly comparative format. Also, industrial marketers seem to be more inclined to stress product features rather than price, distribution, or promotion when using comparative advertising.     

Balancing Development Costs and Sales to Optimize the Development Time of Product Line Additions*

Development teams often use mental models to simplify development time decision making because a comprehensive empirical assessment of the trade‐offs across the metrics of development time, development costs, proficiency in market‐entry timing, and new product sales is simply not feasible. Surprisingly, these mental models have not been studied in prior research on the trade‐offs among the aforementioned metrics. These mental models are important to consider, however, because they define reality, specify what team members attend to, and guide their decision making. As such, these models influence how development teams make trade‐offs across the four metrics to try to optimize new product profitability. Teams with such an objective should manage to a development time that minimizes development costs and to a proficient market‐entry timing that maximizes new product sales. Yet many teams use mental models for development time decision making that focus either just on development costs or on proficiency in market‐entry timing. This survey‐based study uses data from 115 completed NPD projects, all product line additions from manufacturers in The Netherlands, to demonstrate that there is a cost to simplifying decision making. Making development time decisions without taking into account the contingency between development time and proficiency in market‐entry timing can be misleading, and using either a sales‐maximization or a cost‐minimization simplified decision‐making model may result in a cost penalty or a sales loss. The results from this study show that the development time that maximizes new product profitability is longer than the time that maximizes new product sales and is shorter than the development time that minimizes development costs. Furthermore, the results reveal that the cost penalty of sales maximization is smaller than the sales loss of development costs minimization. An important implication of the results is that, to determine the optimal development time, teams need to distinguish between cost and sales effects of development time reductions. To determine the relative impact of these effects this study also estimates the elasticities of development costs, new product sales, and new product profitability with regard to development time. Armed with this knowledge, development teams should be better equipped to make trade‐offs among the four metrics of development time, development costs, proficiency in market‐entry timing, and new product sales.     

Steps in selling effort deployment

Sales deployment decisions are among the most important and most difficult decisions facing sales organizations. Sales- force decision models have been developed as analytical tools for deployment analysis, but model use poses difficult problems for many firms. We propose an operational approach for the strategic analysis of selling effort deployment and provide three examples of how it might be used in deployment analysis.     

Inventory decisions for substitutable products with stock-dependent demand

We study a retailer’s inventory policy for two products. The products are substitutable and have inventory dependent demand, so a higher inventory level of a product increases its sales. We model the joint effect of demand stimulation and product substitution on inventory decisions by considering a single-period, stochastic demand setting. We provide the first order optimality conditions for the profit maximizing order quantities and interpret them using marginal analysis. We also consider two heuristic solutions that separately account for either demand stimulation or product substitution. Our numerical analysis reveals that the optimal policy by appropriately using sales information that quantifies substitution and demand stimulation can produce significantly higher profits. The profit benefits are lessened under certain circumstances, such as when the two products have similar critical fractile values, suggesting that in such instances the heuristics may be used effectively.     

How New Product Introductions Affect Sales Management Strategy: The Impact of Type of "Newness" of the New Product

How do firms adjust sales management strategy for new product launch? Does sales management strategy change more radically for different types of new products such as new‐to‐the‐world products versus product revisions? Because firms introducing a new product rely considerably on their sales force in the product launch effort, the types and degree of changes made in managing the selling effort are important issues. Past studies have demonstrated that firms make substantial adjustments in their sales management strategy when they introduce a new product. This study expands on previous investigations by examining whether sales management strategy changes are conditioned by the type of newness of the new product to the market and to the firm. Australian sales managers were asked to respond to a mail questionnaire concerning pre‐ and post‐new product launch sales management activities. Three groups of firms were compared: (1) those with new‐to‐the‐market and new‐to‐the‐firm products (i.e., new‐to‐the‐world products); (2) those with products new to the firm but not new to the market; and (3) those with products that are revisions to the firm and not new to the market. The study finds that firms do not make the most adjustments for products with the greatest degree of market newness—the new‐to‐the‐world types of products—except in the sales management strategy categories of compensation and supervision. In the other sales management strategy categories defined for study—organization, training, quotas and goals, and sales support as well as for all categories in the aggregate—sales management strategy changes were greatest in incidence, as measured both by the percent of firms making changes and the average number of changes per firm, when the new product was new to the firm but not new to the market. These results suggest that, because different types of new products face different competitive environments, there may be greater incentive for a not‐new‐to‐the‐market new‐to‐the‐firm product to make changes in sales strategy. Uncertainties about market size and customer location with new‐to‐the‐world products may limit the understanding of what changes to make in the strategy categories of quotas and territories. Similarly, uncertainties about product use and customer acceptance of new‐to‐the‐world products may limit the development of training and sales support materials by these firms. Instead, these firms may rely more on compensation and supervision to direct sales efforts for new‐to‐the‐world products. However, observing the market experience and performance of the first‐to‐market product can benefit firms launching a not‐new‐to‐market and new‐to‐the‐firm product, allowing them to rely more on strategy changes in training, sales support materials, organizational adjustments such as redeployments, and quotas.     

Financial Evaluation of the Product Line

When decisions are being made about adding or dropping a product, most managers will make a financial evaluation of the product and they may try to get some sense of the riskiness of the decision. They will also probably consider the effect of the add/drop decision on other products in the line. Seldom, however, do they consider the risk of a product mix decision in the context of the risk level of the overall product line. Professors Rabino and Wright argue that product managers should take a leaf from the analytical book of financial analysts and calculate a "product Beta" that shows the impact of the risk of the individual product on the risk of the whole portfolio of products. They also suggest some other ways of sharpening the financial picture in what are often strictly marketing evaluations. This is Professor Rabino's second article in JPIM . As in the previous one he coauthored with Howard Moskowitz, this one adds some interesting analytical methodology to managerial decision making.     

An Ecological Perspective on New Product Failure: The Effects of Competitive Overcrowding

Practitioners and researchers have carefully explored the causes of new product failures. Studies have been conducted, results analyzed, and recommendations offered. Yet despite these efforts, new product failure rates have not decreased. In fact, they appear to be increasing in some product categories. Are we missing something? Noting that most research on new product failures has focused on a firm's activities in specific projects, William H. Redmond proposes that new product outcomes might also be influenced by macro-level or environmental factors. By focusing on environmental factors rather than a firm's activities in specific projects, we might better understand why competent firms in one industry consistently experience higher failure rates than those of firms that are no more competent, but operate in a different industry. For example, failure rates for new food products are consistently higher than those for new industrial products. With no evidence that product development professionals in industrial firms are simply superior to their counterparts in the food industry, Dr. Redmond suggests that we need to look beyond specific product development projects and consider the effects of the market in which these products are introduced. Encouraged by past successes, many firms in the food manufacturing business seek sales growth through the development and introduction of additional new products. Over time, this creates a market in which customer demand is fragmented into increasingly small niches and distribution channels are flooded with product choices. As a result, the failure of a new product is more likely than it might have been under less crowded conditions. In much the same way that the population of deer on an island is limited by the available food and physical space, food products are apparently faced with the market equivalent of natural selection. In the absence of available market niches and a clear competitive advantage, a new product's chances for success are meager. In a market that is overcrowded by existing products and new product introductions, it becomes increasingly difficult and uneconomical to identify opportunities for meaningful differentiation. On the other hand, industrial products face a much different set of environmental conditions. Compared to the food manufacturing business, relatively few new industrial products are introduced, and those introductions are typically successful. In most cases, the new products are simply replacements for inefficient or obsolete products. In such an environment, failed introductions are probably the result of errors in the product development process.     

A sales mix model for effective industrial selling

The purpose of this article is to focus on one aspect of the marketing mix for industrial firms. Specifically, the control of promotion centers on the promotional mix, which includes personal selling, advertising, and sales promotion. The personal sales mix model (Figure 1) highlights those factors that are controllable by the industrial sales representative. Also, the uncontrollables involved in industrial selling are discussed. An understanding of the personal sales mix model should aid industrial marketers in satisfying buyer's needs through effective selling.     

Product profile analysis: A tool for industrial selling

The purpose of this article is to provide a step-by-step approach to how product profile Analysis (PPA) can be applied to industrial selling. Specifically, the sales representative can use PPA to help the prospective buyer identify the key criteria involved in the purchasing activity. The concentration on buyer-oriented criteria will aid in the development of the sales representative's role as a consultant to the client. The use of PPA will also help the buyer defend the purchasing decision that was made.     

Do Retailers Really Profit from Ambidextrous Managers? The Impact of Frontline Mechanisms on New and Existing Product Selling Performance

When manufacturers introduce a new product to the market, downstream retail partners are faced with inherent trade‐offs. Retail sales personnel have to support the new product's introduction with substantial sales efforts but also sell the existing products in stock, before storage and devaluation costs spin out of control. This study shows how retail sales managers can guide sales personnel's performance of new and existing product selling, respectively. The authors argue that a manager may prioritize selling new products, existing products, or both (i.e., have an ambidextrous selling orientation). Based on data gathered from sales representatives and company databases of a large European consumer electronics retailer, the authors perform a time‐lagged partial least squares analysis to test empirically their conceptual model. The authors find that ambidextrous sales managers outperform their singular‐oriented counterparts if they properly align their orientation with a frontline management mechanism consisting of task autonomy, performance feedback, and employee age. More specifically, ambidextrous managers promote net profit obtainment if they grant their sales employees task autonomy and give little performance feedback. In addition, a remarkable finding is that older sales agents tend to outperform their younger counterparts when working under an ambidextrous manager. The authors discuss the implications of these findings.     

Forecasting Sales of New Contingent Products: An Application to the Compact Disc Market

Estimating the sales potential of new products before an actual launch is a major problem confronting marketing and new products managers. Several modeling efforts for both new durable products and consumer package goods have been reported. An area which has received little explicit treatment, however, is that of new contingent product sales. A specific case of such products is the close relationship between software (consumables or accessory items subject to repeat purchase), and hardware (the original durable good required for use of the software). Examples of this relationship include video cassette recorders and VCR tapes; microcomputers and floppy diskettes; and cameras and photographic film. In this article Barry Bayus discusses a practical method for estimating hardware and software sales of such products. Effects due to different market segment behaviors, pricing, awareness levels, and purchase intentions are incorporated into the model. Results from a study of the compact disc prerecorded audio market by RCAlAriola are presented in order to illustrate how the model can be applied and how the results are useful in making managerial decisions.     

Fertilizer market liberalization and private retail trade in Kenya

This paper examined the factors influencing the entry and sales decision of private traders in fertilizer retail trade in a liberalized market using survey data from Kenya. A two-stage econometric model is used to examine traders’ entry and sales decision. The results provide insights into factors that are associated with private retail traders’ entry and sales decisions in an era of liberalized fertilizer markets. It shows substantial entry into fertilizer retail trade following market liberalization. Relatively limited investments in trading assets and equipment are predicted to hold back firm expansion. Implications drawn from the study provide insights into likely research and policy interventions.     

Using Conjoint Analysis to Help Design Product Platforms

This article illustrates how one can combine different conjoint analysis studies, each containing a core of common attributes, to help design product platforms that serve as the foundation for multiple derivative products. The illustration is based on actual, but disguised, data from a small company that makes electronic test equipment.
This article demonstrates that decisions that consider products individually are likely to be suboptimal and can be significantly different than those based on product platforms. Suboptimality can occur either when preferences for product features differ across markets or when a technology is more important to the overall company than it is to an individual product. Additionally, we show the importance of considering both fixed and variable costs when performing this type of analysis as sales, contribution, and profit-maximizing products are quite different. Finally, sensitivity analyses show that these results are robust with respect to assumptions about price sensitivity, fixed costs, and timing of entry. © 1999 Elsevier Science Inc.     

Sales forecast errors for new product projects

It is difficult to avoid errors in sales forecasts for new industrial products, especially when the forecasts are made at the new product screening stage. But if managers are aware that a forecast is likely to be in serious error, they can take steps to deal with the uncertainty. A research project analyzed 185 new product projects to develop four major indicators of sales forecast error. The indicators can be derived for specific firms from typical project screening questions and can be used to alert new product managers to special development problems that may be present.     

The Impact of Product Portfolio Strategy on Financial Performance: The Roles of Product Development and Market Entry Decisions

Innovation is one of the most important issues facing business today. The major difficulty in managing innovation is that managers must do so against a constantly shifting backdrop as technologies, competitors, and markets constantly evolve. Managers determine the product portfolio through key decisions about product development and market entry. Key strategic questions are what portfolio strategies provide the greatest reward. The purpose of this study is to understand the relative financial values of each component of a product portfolio. Specifically, the paper examines the short‐term and long‐term financial impacts of product development strategy and market entry strategy. These strategies reflect two critical tensions that must be balanced in product portfolio decision making and essentially determine a firm's product portfolio. In doing so, the paper also investigates how a firm's capabilities drive each component of a product portfolio. From the empirical analyses in the context of the biomedical device industry, the paper found important insights regarding product portfolio strategies. First, a large product portfolio helps a firm's financial performance. In particular, the pioneering new products have strongest impacts on short‐term performances, and nonpioneering mature products do not provide significant contribution. Second, the results indicate a persistent first‐mover advantage. The first‐to‐market new products yield not only an immediate effect, but also persistent long‐term effects, suggesting that it is important to be first in the market even though there may be short‐term losses. Third, the results suggest the need to balance between “mature” and “new” products. Also, firms need to balance “first‐to‐market” and “late‐entered” products. Because a new or pioneering product requires more resource, it may hurt other products in the portfolio. Thus, without support from mature or follower products, new products and pioneering products alone may not increase firm sales or profit. Fourth, from a long‐term perspective, the paper found that the financial market only rewards a firm's overall capability to deliver new products first in the marketplace. Thus, short‐term performance is mainly driven by product‐level innovativeness, whereas firm‐level innovativeness enhances forward‐looking long‐term performance. Fifth, the paper also found that pioneering new products are driven by integrating both primary and complementary technological capabilities. And nonpioneering new products are mainly driven by the capabilities in primary technology domain. These results provide important insight into the relative value and timing of return on investment in radical versus incremental innovation and alternative market entry strategies. By understanding the performance trade‐offs of these different factors in the short and long term, one can develop better guidelines for optimizing innovation strategies, and their dependence on both external and internal environmental conditions.