Consumption and labor supply

We present a new econometric model of aggregate demand and labor supply for the United States. We also analyze the allocation full wealth among time periods for households distinguished by a variety of demographic characteristics. The model is estimated using micro-level data from the Consumer Expenditure Surveys supplemented with price information obtained from the Consumer Price Index. An important feature of our approach is that aggregate demands and labor supply can be represented in closed form while accounting for the substantial heterogeneity in behavior that is found in household-level data. As a result, we are able to explain the patterns of aggregate demand and labor supply in the data despite using a parametrically parsimonious specification.     

What drives equity market non-participation?

This paper produces endogenous equity market non-participation in an economy with uninsurable labor income risk and heterogeneous skill levels. Prudence and impatience generate stationary household wealth levels that depend on income. Skill, and therefore labor income, heterogeneity leads to wealth heterogeneity, with high skill households accumulating high wealth and low skill households accumulating low wealth. A HARA class utility with subsistence consumption requirement generates decreasing RRA with respect to household wealth. Consequently, low skill households also have significantly higher local RRA. In addition low skill households have less human capital and therefore have lower diversification demand for stocks. Low wealth, high RRA and low diversification demand predicts that low skill households do not hold stocks in the face of a moderate ownership cost. In addition, the model predicts a humped lifecycle wealth accumulation pattern and a humped lifecycle stock allocation pattern. I also find that stockholders exhibit a greater aggregate willingness to supply risky capital during the expansion phase of a business cycle, despite the lower conditional equity premium.     

The effects of total factor productivity and export shocks on a small open economy with unemployment

The paper analyzes the dynamic effects of a supply side shock and a demand side shock, which hit an open economy with unemployment. The supply side shock is modeled as a reduction in total factor productivity, whereas the demand side shock is caused by a drop in exports. The model builds upon the small one-sector two-good open economy framework described in Turnovsky (2000, chapter 11.3). In contrast to this standard framework, in which Walrasian labor markets are assumed, search unemployment and wage bargaining are introduced, and unemployment results from time consuming and costly matching of vacancies with searching agents. Using a plausible calibration of the model, the dynamic adjustments of unemployment, output, and other economic key variables are analyzed. We find that a negative export shock primarily has effects on consumption and welfare, but not on unemployment and output, whereas the supply side shock leads to considerable responses of unemployment, output, consumption and welfare. If both shocks together hit the economy, the changes in consumption and welfare almost double.     

On the Ramsey equilibrium with heterogeneous consumers and endogenous labor supply

In this paper, we address the stability issue, stressing the role of labor supply, in a Ramsey model with heterogeneous households subject to borrowing constraints. Making labor supply endogenous leads us to prove the existence of two kinds of steady state: the one where everybody supplies labor, the other where only the most patient agent refrains from working. Going beyond models with inelastic labor supply, we show how preferences of impatient agents affect the saddle-path stability of each type of steady state and the occurrence of endogenous cycles. When their elasticity of intertemporal substitution in consumption exceeds one, instability and cycles are less likely, requiring lower degrees of capital-labor substitution. Conversely, elasticity values below one promote the emergence of fluctuations. We end the paper by showing the existence of the intertemporal equilibrium under market incompleteness, using a local approach based on the first-order conditions.     

浅析我国劳动力充分就业的对策与措施

在现实经济中,要想实现充分就业,必须将总需求(消费、投资以及货币因素)和总供给(生产结构和技术)两方面有机结合起来,缺一不可。本文结合我国实际情况,对我国实现劳动力充分就业的对策与措施进行了简要的探讨。     

A simultaneous model for regional labor supply, incorporating labor force participation, commuting and migration

Simultaneous relations between various components of the regional supply of labor and the situation on the regional labor market are developed. There is a distinction between migration, participation and commuting. Conventional research only devotes attention towards the partial relation between one of these components and the regional labor market situation. However, many decisions people make, involve a simultaneous approach towards participation, commuting and migration. This approach is operationalized at a macro-level by constructing a simultaneous supply model. For the specifications we go back to standard literature. In each of the equations, apart from variables that are specific for the particular function, special attention is given to the interrelation between the three supply variables. An overall simultaneity is described by a fourth endogenous variable: unemployment; this variable is explained by employment, participation, netmigration and netcommuting. A combined time-series/cross-section-analysis is used to estimate the model.

Surprisingly it appears that in comparison with OLS parameter- and t-values of the supply-equations are not affected by the use of simultaneous estimation techniques. Only for the unemployment-equation there are significant changes.     

Bayesian estimation of labor demand by age: theoretical consistency and an application to an input–output model

Extended input–output models require careful estimation of disaggregated consumption by households and comparable sources of labor income by sector. The latter components most often have to be estimated. The primary focus of this paper is to produce labor demand disaggregated by workers’ age. The results are evaluated through considerations of its consistency with a static labor demand model restricted with theoretical requirements. A Bayesian approach is used for more straightforward imposition of regularity conditions. The Bayesian model confirms elastic labor demand for youth workers, which is consistent with what past studies find. Additionally, to explore the effects of changes in age structure on a regional economy, the estimated age-group-specific labor demand model is integrated into a regional input–output model. The integrated model suggests that ceteris paribus ageing population contributes to lowering aggregate economic multipliers due to the rapidly growing number of elderly workers who earn less than younger workers.     

Forecasting (aggregate) demand for US commercial air travel

We analyze whether it is better to forecast air travel demand using aggregate data at (say) a national level, or to aggregate the forecasts derived for individual airports using airport-specific data. We compare the US Federal Aviation Administration’s (FAA) practice of predicting the total number of passengers using macroeconomic variables with an equivalently specified AIM (aggregating individual markets) approach. The AIM approach outperforms the aggregate forecasting approach in terms of its out-of-sample air travel demand predictions for different forecast horizons. Variants of AIM, where we restrict the coefficient estimates of some explanatory variables to be the same across individual airports, generally dominate both the aggregate and AIM approaches. The superior out-of-sample performances of these so-called quasi-AIM approaches depend on the trade-off between heterogeneity and estimation uncertainty. We argue that the quasi-AIM approaches exploit the heterogeneity across individual airports efficiently, without suffering from as much estimation uncertainty as the AIM approach.     

Household debt and labor market fluctuations

The co-movements of labor productivity with output, total hours, vacancies and unemployment have changed since the mid 1980s. This paper offers an explanation for the sharp break in the fluctuations of labor market variables based on endogenous labor supply decisions following the mortgage market deregulation. We set up a search model with efficient bargaining and financial frictions, in which impatient borrowers can take an amount of credit that cannot exceed a proportion of the expected value of their real estate holdings. When borrowers' equity requirements are low, the impact of a positive technology shock on the marginal utility of consumption is strengthened, which in turn results in lower hours per worker and higher wages in the bargaining process. This shift in labor supply discourages firms from opening vacancies, reducing the impact of the shock on employment. We simulate the effects of an increase in both the loan-to-value ratio and the share of borrowers in total population. Our exercise shows that the response of labor market variables might have been substantially affected by the increase in household leverage in the US in the last twenty years.     

Long‐run neutrality of demand shocks: Revisiting Blanchard and Quah (1989) with independent structural shocks

With reference to a stylized theoretical macromodel, Blanchard and Quah (American Economic Review, 1989, 79, 655–673) identify empirical aggregate supply (e.g., productivity) and demand shocks by assuming that the latter are neutral for economic activity in the long run. Taking advantage of recent contributions to the structural VAR literature and data‐based identification, we find that effects of unique independent non‐Gaussian structural shocks support this assumption. Moreover, unlike the results in Blanchard and Quah, statistically identified supply shocks exhibit (insignificantly) opposite impacts on gross domestic product and unemployment in the short run. In comparison with benchmark results obtained under assumed long‐run neutrality, statistical identification points to a stronger role of aggregate supply shocks for shaping temporary profiles of US unemployment during the recessionary period 1973:Q3–1975:Q1.     

互联网背景下消费扶贫的商业模式创新机理

消费扶贫通过消费需求拉动贫困户的劳动供给,实现扶志、扶智和扶贫的多重效果,具有可持续的长期效应。如何构建多方共赢的商业模式是消费扶贫成功的关键。本文基于全国比较典型的13个消费扶贫项目的一手和二手数据资料,从消费者和贫困户两类主体解析“消费扶贫”商业模式,运用NVivo软件进行三阶段质性编码构建模型,根据商业模式创新路径模型解释了道德型消费力对该类商业模式的内生性驱动作用,以及模式所产生的多态价值效应,并在此基础上对模式的激活驱动机理、创新过程以及创新价值输出进行了探究。     

Unemployment,disequilibrium and the short run phillips curve: An econometric approach

The paper specifies a disequilibrium model for the aggregate labour market consisting of demand and supply functions for labour, an adjustment equation for wages as well as for prices, a transactions equation and, finally, an equation that relates measured unemployment to vacancies and to excess demand. The model has a more sophisticated treatment of dynamics than earlier disequilibrium models. The parameter estimates and the goodness-of-fit are satisfactory and the model's implications for the behaviour of several important variables are sensible. In particular, excess demand estimates computed in various ways are reasonable.     

Heterogeneity biases,distributional effects,and aggregate consumption: An empirical analysis using stratified microdata

Using stratified microdata from the Canadian FAMEX (78–86) surveys, this paper investigates whether observed heterogeneity in marginal propensities to consume across strata actually hinders the aggregation process. Despite significant heterogeneity in marginal responses, the divergences between aggregate predicted consumption and the predictions from a model that uses average strata responses are found to be small, whenever the strata demands are approximatively linear at the mean and the commodity group considered is not a luxury good. On the other hand, some cross-sectional estimates obtained by pooling the strata are shown to be contaminated by unwanted cross-moments. Further, the analysis reconciles the fact that while there exists significant heterogeneity in consumer demands, the related distributional effects in the aggregate equation have not been found to be important.     

外资企业技术授权与劳动力技能结构升级——来自世界银行中国企业调查数据的经验证据

在中国高技能劳动力供给不断增加的背景下,引进国外先进生产技术能够促进本土企业实现技术进步,进而扩大企业对高技能劳动力的相对需求。作为技术引进的途径之一,本土企业使用外资企业授权的生产技术与企业内高技能劳动力就业的关系却较少受到关注。本文利用世界银行2012年中国企业调查数据对这一问题进行初步探索。研究结果表明,获得外资企业技术授权能够显著提升劳动力技能结构,影响途径包括生产规模扩张、研发投入增加和资本深化。其中,生产规模和研发投入为正向途径,资本深化为反向途径。此外,外资企业技术授权作为本土企业扩大对高技能劳动力的相对需求的途径之一,对避免技能层面的要素错配和结构性失业具有重要意义。     

Unemployment in East and West Europe

We use new 1991–2005 panel data to address the issue of unemployment in Central-East Europe. We compare the evolution of unemployment, its dynamics and related phenomena in five former communist economies in the Central Europe and use the geographically close West Germany as a benchmark for a mature market economy. We identify the differences and similarities in the evolution of the key labor market variables and contrast different outcomes with the diverse initial conditions and subsequent paths. All countries have experienced aggregate demand shocks, structural shocks and hysteresis. Despite diverse initial conditions and subsequent paths, the patterns observed are surprisingly similar. The eastern part of Germany appears to be a special case with extraordinary high unemployment inflows. Contrary to the theoretical models, in the transition economies we do not observe an initially rapid rise in the inflow rate, followed by a convergence of this rate to the levels of market economies. Rather, there is a relatively gradual rise in the inflow rate towards the level of market economies. The differences in unemployment rates turn out to be attributable to a considerable extent to the actual differences in the inflow rates. The trajectories in the unemployment-vacancy space observed in the Central-East European countries increasingly resemble those observed in the developed market economies. Interestingly, these similarities arise despite differences in the institutional setting across these economies.     

Regional unemployment disparities in China

China has larger regional unemployment disparities than any other economy of comparable size. The persistence of the unemployment disparity in China has prevented the aggregate unemployment rate from decreasing even when the country’s GDP was growing at 10 percent per year. Unemployment rates rose and unemployment disparities widened in other transition economies too, but what made China’s disparities wider than those in other transition economies is the existence of a large subsistence sector, where unemployment exists only in a disguised form. This study explains the wide unemployment disparity in China with the geographically uneven distribution of the three sectors: the state sector, which suffers from a steep rise of unemployment during transition; the capitalist sector, which absorbs labor from the subsistence sector and grows rapidly; and the subsistence sector, which supplies its redundant labor to the capitalist sector. The study also presents a case study of Fuxin City, which has experienced an extremely high unemployment rate due to the reform of its main industry. Fuxin’s case is presented as a microcosm of the problems that give rise to unemployment disparities, such as massive layoffs in the state sector, lack of labor mobility in the unemployment-stricken regions, and inadequate development of the capitalist sector.     

Diverging patterns with endogenous labor migration.

"The standard neoclassical model cannot explain persistent migration flows and lack of cross-country convergence when capital and labor are mobile. Here we present a model where both phenomena may take place.... Our model is based on the Arrow-Romer approach to endogenous growth theory. We single out the importance of a (however weak) scale effect from the size of the workforce.... The main conclusion of this simple model is that lack of convergence, or even divergence, among countries is possible, even with perfect capital mobility and labor mobility."     

Housing tenure and labor market impacts: The search goes on

We develop two search-theoretic models emphasizing firm entry to examine the Oswald hypothesis, the idea that homeownership is linked to inferior labor market outcomes, and compare their predictions to three extant theories. The five models have surprisingly different predictions about the labor market at both the aggregate and micro levels. Using a suitable instrumental variable strategy, we estimate both micro and aggregate level regression models of wages and unemployment and compare the estimates to those predictions. We find that while homeowners are less likely to be unemployed, they also have lower wages, all else equal, compared to renters. In addition, higher regional homeownership rates are associated with a greater probability of individual worker unemployment and higher wages. The outcome of a horserace between our new search-theoretic models is mixed—the wage-posting model predicts observed unemployment impacts while a bargaining variant does a better job explaining observed wages and aggregate labor market outcomes. Overall, we conclude that firm behavior is important for understanding the labor market impacts of homeownership. Because this is the case, regional homeownership rates are not good instruments for individual tenure choice in empirical work. And while individual homeowners may have inferior labor market outcomes as compared to renters, from the viewpoint of society, higher homeownership rates may result in greater job creation and overall production, among other benefits.     

Oil Prices and Personal Consumption Expenditures: Does the Source of the Shock Matter?

This paper studies the effect of structural oil shocks on personal consumption expenditures (PCE). First, we estimate a nonlinear simultaneous equation model, compute impulse responses by Monte Carlo integration, and conduct a test of the symmetry of the impulse response functions. We find that aggregate PCE responds asymmetrically to positive and negative oil‐specific demand shocks. Second, we find that aggregate PCE responds negatively to positive oil demand shocks, while adverse oil supply shocks are of limited effect. Third, we find important heterogeneity in the magnitude, sign and timing of the disaggregate PCE responses to structural shocks in the crude oil market. Our results clearly indicate that the response of PCE to an unexpected oil price increase depends on the source of the oil price shock. Our findings are robust to different nonlinear transformations for the real price of oil.     

The effects of public spending externalities

We conduct a positive analysis on the effects of ‘externalities’ produced by government spending. To this effect, we estimate, using U.S. data, an RBC model with two salient features. First, we allow government consumption to directly affect the marginal utility of consumption. Second, we allow public capital to shift the productivity of private factors. We provide an identification analysis that supports the strategy adopted for estimating the parameters governing these two channels. On one hand, private and government consumption are robustly estimated to be substitute goods. Because of substitutability, labor supply reacts little to a government consumption shock, so the estimated output multiplier is much lower than in models with separabilities. On the other hand, our results point towards public investment being ‘unproductive’.