SDIs: Infrastructure,agglomeration and the region in industrial policy

This article reports on the initial findings of an Industrial Strategy Project Research Programme on a key current element of national industrial policy, namely Spatial Development Initiatives (SDIs). The ISP Research Programme is concerned with industrial investment. The operational industrial SDIs are examined against the backdrops of the pattern of contemporary industrial location in South Africa and the emergence of a regional industrial policy for the country; the long‐run experience with SDI‐type programmes internationally and in South Africa; and directions in current regional industrial development theory and practice, particularly those interventions aimed at strengthening the economies associated with regional/sectoral clusters or agglomerations typically embedded in metropolitan locations. The preliminary findings of research commissioned on long‐run industrial development in Richards Bay, and the current SDI processes under way in the Fish River SDI (Eastern Cape) and the West Coast SDI (Western Cape) are then presented These findings demonstrate that for the SDIs to meet their intentions in terms of maximising inward investment, creating jobs and catalysing durable regional economic development, the large opportunity present to use SDI processes to build the capacity and social infrastructure for economic development at local and regional level on — and between — both public and private sector sides should be grasped. To this end, it is also suggested that SDIs be closely linked to other government industrial promotion and support activities, notably the cluster initiatives and SMME support programmes, both of which may themselves need, at this point, far clearer regional focus.     

Does government health insurance reduce job lock and job push?

I study job lock and job push, twin phenomena believed to be partially due to employment-contingent health insurance (ECHI). Using variation in Medicaid eligibility among household members of male workers to identify changes in those workers' reliance on ECHI, I estimate notable job lock and job push effects. For married male workers, a 15 percentage point increase in the likelihood a household member is eligible for Medicaid increases the rate of voluntary job exits over a four-month period by 14%. For job push, the same increase in a household member's likelihood of Medicaid eligibility reduces the transition rate into jobs with ECHI among all male workers by 8%.     

我国创新型产业集群的分布及其培育策略

创新型产业集群的建设和发展,是建设制造强国的重要路径之一。运用全国61个创新型产业集群单位和47个创新型产业集群培育单位的数据,研究发现:我国的创新型产业集群和培育集群多集中在东部沿海经济发达地区;创新型产业集群体现了不同地域主导产业和龙头企业的特色;创新型产业培育集群布局依托了地区产业发展优势,满足了协调发展要求;创新型产业集群是各地区重要经济增长极,有显著的带动效应。同时,创新型产业集群和创新型产业培育集群在不同行业的分布存在明显差异;一些创新型产业集群已拥有国际国内有影响的知名品牌;创新型产业集群和培育集群主要集中于先进制造业,体现了国家战略;重要细分行业还缺乏创新型产业集群和创新型产业培育集群。未来,应推动创新型产业集群的连片发展,促进建成全球领先的先进制造集聚区;促进集群内企业、研发机构、服务机构等的深度分工协作,增强集群的国际竞争力;发展生产性服务业,构建创新型产业集群发展的现代服务支撑体系。     

产业集聚现象的政策含义

文章在对解释产业集聚现象的相关理论进行归纳与分析的基础上,结合中国沿海地区产业集聚的发展状况总结了产生产业集聚效应的经济机理,进而提出了产业集聚的政策含义和对地方政府推进产业发展的建议.     

提升产业基础高级化、产业链现代化水平工业互联网的驱动力

“提升产业基础高级化、产业链现代化水平。”这是5月14日中央政治局常委会上提出的要求。而这也正是中国工业互联网的主要攻坚目标。作为“新基建”的核心领域之一,工业互联网可看作是数字“新基建”的领头羊,因而受到中央决策层的高度重视。习近平总书记连续4年对推动工业互联网发展作出重要指示。今年2月21日,中央政治局会议再次强调,要推动工业互联网加快发展。3月4日,中央政治局常委会作出加快新型基础设施建设进度的重要部署。工业互联网、5G、数据中心等数字基础设施日益成为新型基础设施的重要组成部分。     

Employment and Earnings: A Case Study of Urban Detroit

This paper investigates the roles of manufacturing employment, neighborhood poverty, and family structure in determining wages among Detroit, MI workers, just prior to the current economic crisis. Employment in manufacturing has been crucial for blacks and whites: 39% of black and of white men in the Detroit metropolitan area worked in manufacturing in 2000. Regression analysis in this paper estimates employment in manufacturing raised wages 15.8% for all workers in the metropolitan area, 24.4% for blacks and 13.8% for whites. It finds a higher wage penalty (4.7%) for blacks in non-manufacturing industries than is found when manufacturing sector jobs are included (2.6%). Wage returns to education were greater in the non-manufacturing employment sector, especially for blacks. Residence in the poorest central city neighborhoods reduced wages significantly for white manufacturing and non-manufacturing workers. Its coefficient was insignificant for black workers. Gender and marital status effects on wages differed between blacks and whites in magnitude: White women suffered a larger penalty for their sex than black women (22.6 versus 9.6%) yet black men enjoyed a greater return to marriage than white men (27.5 versus 25.0%). Controlling for manufacturing reduced the gender wage gap and the returns to marriage for men. These findings suggest greater accessibility for women; and lower returns to marriage in non-manufacturing sectors. Among employed blacks access to manufacturing jobs has been their main source of decent wages. The adverse effects of the industry??s job loss in the 1980s and 1990s impacted all Detroit residents. Other high wage industries have employed relatively few blacks, have not paid them well; and have suffered job loss and slow growth over the period. Education could have raised wages for non-manufacturing workers, but not as much as access to manufacturing jobs. Today as in 2000, Detroit??s residents desperately need job creation or relocation to the central city; and job training and anti-discrimination policy enforcement throughout the metro-area. All of these would be necessary to offset job loss and reduce inequality and poverty in Detroit. The extent to which blacks will benefit from 2010?C11 improvements in manufacturing employment in Detroit depends upon whether private companies and the state provide equal access to the jobs and the training new technologies require.     

Openness and trade policy in China: an industrial analysis

This paper analyzes the tariff structure and its determinants in China, with our research conducted under the rubric of endogenous policy theory. We study the tariff rates for 95 industries in China in 1996. The potential determinants of tariff rates are collected from an array of variables characterizing industries in 1995. A principal component method is used to reduce these variables into four major dimensions. The first component comprises the information on the composition of employees broken down by age, education, and job classification. The second component is underlined by the profitability of the industry. The third component consists of those variables not picked up with high salience in the first two components. More closely resembling those in the second component than the first, these variables include gross product, foreign capital, inventory, sales revenue, and total loss. The fourth component receives high loadings from two variables: the number of firms in the industry and the number of firms that incur net losses in their operation. Using variables identified by the principal component analysis and postulated by the variants of the endogenous trade theory, regression analysis finds that the trade policy in China is mainly defined by an industrial policy favoring high-tech industries and a social policy minimizing social instability. The implications for China's entry into the World Trade Organization (WTO) are also provided in the paper.     

北部湾产业集群发展策略研究

产业集群是产业组织的新发展和地区经济的新现象,国际竞争实质上是产业集群的竞争,产业集群的发展已成为区域经济发展的加速器,也发展成区域经济增长的源动力。本文是根据北部湾的产业条件,提出了产业集群发展的策略。     

The internal impact of a customs union; Baden and the Zollverein

Tariffs can affect the growth of states. But how do they affect regional growth within states? Using Baden's 1836 entry into the Zollverein, the customs union of German states, I investigate the internal impact of a change in tariffs. With a new data set of regional employment data I demonstrate that the Zollverein had a substantial positive effect. Two market access effects are shown, one follows the standard market access predictions and the second triggers the direct investment by Swiss entrepreneurs in German regions close to their home base. Furthermore occupational change within the crafts sector was shifting labour towards higher taxed occupations and towards the region close to Switzerland.     

建设环杭州湾产业带:产业定位、高端路径和区域共赢——以余慈地区为例

建设环杭州湾产业带是推进长江三角洲地区经济一体化的重要步骤。本文以杭州湾南岸——余慈地区为例，通过实证分析，来说明在此过程中，环杭州湾各地区(特别是沿湾各县市)应当依据地方化优势产业，进行产业定位，统筹产业规划。进而探讨在资源、环境、空间的共同约束下，如何走“高端路径”。形成地方化优势产业的创新型集群，实现区域共赢。     

产业集群与中西部地区发展产业集群的政府作为

当前产业集群日益成为提升产业与区域竞争力的重要方式.打造中西部地区的产业集群成为推动产业优化升级,实现跨越式发展及拉动区域经济发展的重要动力,政府的引导和扶持则是中西部地区发展产业集群的巨大推动力量.     

建设环杭州湾产业带:产业定位、高端路径和区域共赢——以余慈地区为例

建设环杭州湾产业带是推进长江三角洲地区经济一体化的重要步骤。本文以杭州湾南岸———余慈地区为例,通过实证分析,来说明在此过程中,环杭州湾各地区(特别是沿湾各县市)应当依据地方化优势产业,进行产业定位,统筹产业规划。进而探讨在资源、环境、空间的共同约束下,如何走"     

Backward linkages from construction. Exploring the economic development potential of Scottish building supplies

One argument for increasing construction investment is the number of jobs and related multipliers associated with property investment. However, economic activity does not begin and end with actual construction: there are important backward linkages into the input markets for construction. If these markets can be shown to be primarily indigenous or at least with the potential to be locally-based, then there are wider local and regional benefits that may accrue from construction programmes. This paper is based on recent Scottish research which traced back the linkages from construction to specific building supplies markets in materials, semi-finished and finished products. Strong economy-wide multiplier effects are identified for construction output, for those on low incomes and in terms of job creation. Scottish construction is found to be primarily self-contained with consequent opportunities to maximise the local economic impact of construction work. The research suggests that policies need to target specific supply industries, meet the skills shortage challenge and confront the problems associated with construction tendering.     

苏粤两省省级重点研发计划专项调研比对研究

为充分发挥政府科研投入的效用,科技计划资助专项的科学、合理设置至关重要。广东省、江苏省均是中国科研投入领先地区,通过调研苏粤两省省级重点研发计划专项,采用内容分析法、比对分析法,从重点资助产业领域、资助模式及力度、申报要求等宏观维度,以及拟资助技术的前瞻性、必要性、可行性等微观维度开展分析,挖掘省级科技计划专项整体设置、专项设计、技术组织攻关上的区域特色。结合广东战略性产业发展实际,在发挥省级研发计划壮大产业集群技术力量、提升技术攻关创新成效、培育产业集群的创新生态体系、强化专项技术方向特色上提出建议。     

昌九工业走廊工业化指数空间分布研究

利用统计软件，通过主成分分析获得昌九工业走廊26个县域的工业化指数，作为衡量地区工业化水平的标准。并通过空间分析软件研究2016年各县域工业化指数的空间关联性。研究结果表示，各地区的工业化水平在空间单元呈现正相关的特性，同时展示出了地理空间的集聚效应。结合工业化指数及其空间特征，研究地区经济发展的机理，给予产业调整建议：昌九工业走廊应因地制宜地进行产业结构调整，工业化程度较低且第一产业比重大的地区应适当发展特色加工业和特色旅游业，而工业化水平领先的地区应进行工业改造与技术升级，发展低能耗少污染高产值的新型产业。     

Impact of natural disasters on industrial agglomeration: The case of the Great Kantō Earthquake in 1923

The Great Kantō Earthquake in 1923 did enormous damage to industries in Tokyo Prefecture. Around 40% of the buildings in Tokyo Prefecture were completely burnt or destroyed. In this paper, we investigate whether this temporary shock had a persistent impact on the spatial distribution of industries in Tokyo, using ward- and county-level panel data for industrial workers. It was found that while the earthquake caused mean shifts in the shares and numbers of workers, these mean shifts disappeared by the early 1930s. On the other hand, the earthquake caused shifts in the trends in the share and number of workers. The combined effects of these mean shifts and trend shifts were persistent for both the shares and the numbers of workers. The earthquake caused especially serious damage to the old industrial clusters in the southeast of Tokyo, and provided an opportunity for newly developing industrial clusters in non-damaged areas to take over the market. Further, the people and the local governments in non-damaged areas made an effort to take advantage of this opportunity to attract factories. Arguably, these forces made the impact of the earthquake on the spatial distribution of industry persistent.     

What can Indonesia learn from China's industrial energy saving programs?

Even though Indonesia's CO₂ emissions are dominated by deforestation while China's are dominated by industry, Indonesia has much to learn from China's industrial energy saving programs. To begin with, it is only a matter of time before Indonesia's emissions from fossil fuels overtake those from deforestation. Given the long technological lock-in effects of energy systems and industries, Indonesia needs to think now about how it will tackle this problem. There are other reasons for believing that Indonesia might learn something from China – the CO₂ intensities of GDP, of industry and of cement production have been rising in Indonesia, while they are falling in China. China's better intensity performance is due to policies that Indonesia would do well to follow – adopting a technological catch-up industrial development strategy; raising energy prices to scarcity values; liberalising domestic markets and opening the economy to trade and investment; and mounting a massive energy saving program.     

产业集群与技术关联关系研究

产业集群本质上是技术关联企业在区域内的集聚。技术的内在特征和属性决定了技术关联企业的集聚及其产业集群的形成,而产业集群内技术的延伸与创新又决定了产业发展的高级化程度,从而影响着产业在区域间的布局与转移。同时,以技术关联为基础的区域网络更是集群存在和发展的重要支撑。通过对产业集群与技术关联关系的研究分析,有助于解决地区产业集群的技术升级和健康、持续发展的问题。     

全球价值链嵌入、区域融合发展与制造业产业升级——基于双循环新发展格局的思考

在构建双循环新发展格局和中国区域发展不平衡的背景下,文章将全球价值链、国内区域间融合发展纳入同一研究框架,作为推动制造业产业升级的切入点。使用空间计量方法研究发现：中国各地区参与全球化分工以及国内区域流入型融合对制造业产业升级产生明显溢出效应,且后向溢出更显著。东部参与全球化分工能够享受产业升级红利,中西部则更多通过国内流入型融合获得升级红利。且区域竞争优势与主导分工环节越契合越有益于产业升级。分行业看,高技术类型对于产业升级的拉动效应更显著。资源配置效率、技术效率的改善是参与全球分工以及国内区域融合推动制造业产业升级的重要途径。最后提出了基于三个梯队产业带动系数的区域产业升级扶助路径,对四大板块协同三大支撑带的战略布局作出有效补充。     

西部陆海新通道对区域产业创新的影响研究

产业创新以技术创新为基础,形成产业核心竞争力,是国家创新的核心。基于2010—2019年西部陆海新通道沿线地区的数据,运用中介效应模型与空间计量模型,实证分析西部陆海新通道对区域产业创新的影响效应及作用机制。研究发现,西部陆海新通道的开通促进了沿线地区的产业创新,推动了区域要素流动与聚集,改善了区域创新环境,创新环境起着部分中介变量的作用;西部陆海新通道建设与沿线地区创新要素相互作用推动了区域产业创新,并对周边地区产生了空间溢出效应;西部陆海新通道沿线地区的外商投资少,其所产生的技术溢出效应对区域产业创新无显著影响。基于此,应加快完善西部陆海新通道沿线地区综合立体交通网络,提升西部陆海新通道通行能力和衔接水平,改善沿线地区的创新环境,重视人才引进与培养,大力引进外资与发展外向型经济,以此促进西部新通道沿线地区的产业创新发展。