Mapping natural resource-based poverty,with an application to rural Syria

This study presents advances in resource-based poverty mapping. It illustrates how agricultural income distribution maps can be generated at small pixel-level, providing an application of the approach in rural Syria. Census data on agriculture and population are disaggregated based on pixel-level agricultural productivity coefficients derived in a GIS environment. The approach, triangulated with survey results and compared with sub-national poverty maps, shows that the better-income areas of Syria are located in the irrigated and higher-rainfall areas, though lower-income pockets exist due to the presence of ecological and topographic factors or due to high population density. The method can be used for developing high-resolution, low cost maps for rapid detection of resource-driven poverty in low income countries where agriculture is a major source of rural income, and where poverty mapping is rarely undertaken due to the high costs involved.     

Assessing the impact of improved agricultural technologies on household income in rural Mozambique

In many areas of Africa, rural livelihoods depend heavily on subsistence farming. Using improved agricultural technologies can increase productivity in smallholder agriculture and thus raise household income and reduce poverty. Data from a nationally representative rural household survey from 2005 is used to assess the impact of four technologies – improved maize seeds, improved granaries, tractor mechanization, and animal traction – on household income in Mozambique. To ensure the robustness of the results, three econometric approaches were used: the doubly-robust estimator, sub-classification and regression, and matching and regression. The results show that, overall, using an improved technology did not have a statistically significant impact on household income. This may be associated with a widespread drought that occurred in 2005. Despite drought, distinguishing between households based on propensity score quintiles revealed that using improved technologies, especially improved maize seeds and tractors, significantly increased the income of those households who had better market access. Thus, to allow households to benefit from the use of improved technologies, policy makers need to reduce structural impediments to market participation by ensuring adequate road infrastructure and enabling access to markets.     

Adaptation to land constraints: Is Africa different?

Since the seminal works of Malthus and Boserup, scientists have long debated the impact of population growth and land constraints on the wellbeing of rural people. Today these concerns are particularly relevant to Africa, with its rapid population growth, very small farms, and chronic food insecurity. In this paper we examine adaptation to falling land-labor ratios using a comprehensive theoretical framework in which households faced with binding land constraints can respond in three ways: intensifying agricultural production, diversifying out of agriculture, and reducing fertility rates. Using cross-country data and drawing upon the existing literature, we reach three conclusions. First, population density is associated with reduced fallows and more intensive use of land but not fertilizer use or irrigation, indicating major challenges in achieving sustainable intensification or agricultural productivity growth. Second, there is little evidence of successful non-farm diversification in response to land pressures in Africa from domestic or international income sources. Third, rural Africans in land constrained countries desire smaller families, but have thus far benefited little from family planning policies. These findings underscore the need for a coordinated multi-sectoral approach to sustainably reduce poverty in the region.     

The impact of agricultural research on productivity and poverty in sub-Saharan Africa

While it is widely recognized that agricultural research is a key driver of broad-based technological change in agriculture that benefits the poor in many different ways, little is known about its aggregate impacts on productivity growth and poverty reduction in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Using a polynomial distributed lag structure for agricultural research within a simultaneous system of equations framework, this paper first demonstrates that agricultural research contributes significantly to productivity growth in SSA. Productivity growth is again shown to raise per capita incomes, with income increases finally having significant poverty-reducing effects. With an aggregate rate of return of 55%, the payoffs to agricultural research are also impressive. Agricultural research currently reduces the number of poor by 2.3 million or 0.8% annually. While the actual impacts are not large enough to more than offset the poverty-increasing effects of population growth and environmental degradation, the potential impacts of agricultural research are far greater. Apart from low research investments, SSA faces several constraints outside the research system that hinder realization of potential research benefits. The results show that doubling research investments in SSA would reduce poverty by 9% annually. However, this would not be realized without more efficient extension, credit, and input supply systems.     

High rural population density Africa – What are the growth requirements and who participates?

A large and increasing proportion of agricultural growth in Africa must come from continuous gains in land productivity in areas of high population density and hence with already relatively high yields. What that requires is analogous to the green revolution in Asia. Several features differentiate the African situation. Those include greater diversity in cropping pattern including a historically larger and more widespread tropical commodity export sector. The physical infrastructure in rural Africa is far inferior to that of most Asian countries. While the greater diversity of agriculture calls for a larger and more diverse institutional structure the reality is that the research systems, the ancillary education systems to spread innovation and the rural financial systems are generally greatly inferior to those of Asia at the beginning of the green revolution. Ethiopia’s record of a steady six to seven percent growth for agriculture and nearly halving of rural poverty demonstrates that with the right policies and investments a very poor country starting with poor physical and institutional infrastructure can bring a major contribution from agriculture growth to increased GDP and reduced poverty. As in Asia, the bulk of accelerated agricultural growth will come from small commercial farmers. They have sufficient farm income to reach or exceed the poverty level. Those are farms with, depending on the country, as little as 0.75 hectares to a few tens of hectares of land. They comprise up to half the rural population and produce on the order of 70–80 percent of agricultural output. They are in general not poor. The poor have inadequate land to reach the poverty level, initially with much underemployment, and with substantial non-farm employment. The primary driver of poverty reduction is the small commercial farmer spending on the order of half of increased income on nontradable, employment intensive goods and services from the rural non-farm sector.     

Impact of contract farming on land productivity and income of maize and potato growers in Pakistan

While the positive income effect of contract farming is well established in the literature, the heterogeneity of effects for different crops has not been widely investigated. This study compares the income and productivity effects of large-scale contract farming under contract schemes for potatoes and maize in Pakistan. In the area of the study, maize is a common staple crop, widely available in the market, while the potatoes produced by contract farmers are a special variety not sold in the market. We find that potato contracting is associated with significantly higher income for participating farmers, while maize contracting has no association with either income or productivity. We found no negative association between contract participation and income from other sources. Taken together, these results show a higher total household income for potato contract farmers. We also show unique evidence that potato contract farmers tend to employ more skilled workers under a salary system for the management of farms, which implies that contract farming may have positive spillover effects in the skilled labor market. Neither scheme, however, is associated with larger employment of agricultural labor for simple tasks.     

New agricultural technology and smallfarmers in Latin America

Biased income distribution in agriculture as a result of the green revolution towards better agricultural regions and larger farmers has been justified by declining prices for rice and wheat making consumers the main beneficiaries of this new technology. But, there are two arguments for focusing future agricultural technology towards small farmers and poorer resource regions. First, evidence suggests that there is little productivity or nutritional improvement from migration. Second, unless the supply of prime areas can be made more elastic, most of the small farmer food crops, even with new technology, will not be sufficiently profitable to displace the high value activities currently found in these areas in Latin America.     

Heterogeneous incentives for innovation adoption: The price effect on segmented markets

It is now commonly accepted that poverty alleviation and the development of agricultural value chains in low income countries require farmers to innovate. However numerous constraints to innovation adoption have been identified. In the literature, the market structures on which producers sell their output have received remarkably little attention. In this article, I argue that these can impact a producer’s choices with respect to the level of effort invested in changing agricultural practices. More specifically, due to transaction costs, contract farming and other market imperfections, output prices and production levels in rural areas are often jointly determined, leading to market segmentation. I develop a simple model to discuss how market segmentation induces non-trivial effects on incentives to innovate. Next, I rely on farm-level panel data from an extension project in the Peruvian highlands to test the empirical implications of the model. Producers that were not included in the formal market but close to it, performed better in improving agricultural practices. The indirect consequence of this investment is a higher price increase than the rest of the population, creating heterogeneous impacts of the programme, opportunities for economic mobility and a reduction in inequality. The evidence indicates how considering the effects of market structures leads to a more nuanced understanding of the process of agricultural innovation adoption in low and middle income countries.     

Agricultural research spending must increase in light of future uncertainties

Agricultural productivity depends critically on investments in research and development (R&D), but there is a long lag in this response. Failing to invest today in improvements of agricultural productivity cannot be simply corrected a few decades later if the world finds itself short of food at that point in time. This fundamental irreversibility is particularly problematic in light of uncertain future population, income, and climate change, as portrayed in the IPCC’s Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). This paper finds the optimal path of agricultural R&D spending over the 21st century for each SSP, along with valuation of those regrets associated with investment decisions later revealed to be in error. The maximum regret is minimized to find a robust optimal R&D pathway that factors in key uncertainties and the lag in productivity response to R&D. Results indicate that the whole of uncertainty’s impact on R&D is greater than the sum of its individual parts. Uncertainty in future population has the dominant impact on the optimal R&D expenditure path. The robust solution suggests that the optimal R&D spending strategy is very close to the one that will increase agricultural productivity fast enough to feed the World under the most populous scenario. It also suggests that society should accelerate R&D spending up to mid-century, thereafter moderating this growth rate.     

Alternatives for Danish agriculture

In the years prior to Denmark's entry into the European Common Market (EEC) in 1973, Danish agricultural exports began to encounter difficulties. As exports account for about two thirds of production in the sector, total agricultural production also stagnated in the 1960s and early 1970s. Entry into the EEC was expected to result in an increase in agricultural production; the increase has, however, failed to materialize.The fact that agricultural production has not increased in the years following entry into the EEC is due to a complex interaction of factors. One explanation is a fall in the number of agricultural holdings which has led to a considerable reduction in the productive capacity of the sector. The relatively high level of interest and costs has also had a dampening impact on the investment propensity. However, in 1977 and 1978 there has been a trend towards an increase in investment in livestock production which indicates an increase in total agricultural production for the years to come.An important part of the Danish economy is the integration of the agricultural sector with the large food processing industry.¹ The links between agriculture and other sectors are rising. The purchase of raw materials and means of production, plus the depreciation of machinery and building requirements, now account for up to 60% of the total agricultural production in terms of value. There is consequently a strong general interest in the future development of Danish agriculture. The recent international recession has also furthered an increased political interest in the exploitation of agriculture. Agricultural policy is thus tending towards a more central importance in the general and the specific economic policies.The central elements of the current discussion have been the volume of the production potential of Danish agriculture, and the market potential existing in the years to come. These considerations are discussed below, on the basis of both historical trends and of a study recently published on alternative development possibilities for Danish agriculture.²     

Agricultural labour productivity,food prices and sustainable development impacts and indicators

In the last few years high and unstable food and agricultural commodity prices and concerns about population growth, increasing per capita food demands and environmental constraints have pushed agriculture and food production up national and international political, policy and research agendas. Drawing on both theory and empirical evidence, this paper argues that fundamental impacts of links between agricultural productivity sustainability and real food price changes are often overlooked in current policy analysis. This is exacerbated by a lack of relevant and accessible indicators for monitoring agricultural productivity sustainability and real food prices. Two relatively simple and widely applicable sets of indicators are proposed for use in policy development and monitoring. Historical series of these indices are estimated for selected countries, regions and the world. Their strengths, weaknesses and potential value are then discussed in the context of the need for better sustainable agricultural development and food security indicators in any post 2015 successors to the current MDGs.     

新疆农业产业化发展策略研究

推进农业产业化经营,是促进农业转型升级、建设现代农业的必由之路,是提高农业效益、增加农民收入的重要途径,是转变农业发展方式、实施"三化"带动"三农"的重要手段。目前新疆正处在农业产业化加速发展的关键时期和跨越式发展的重要阶段,因此,积极发展农业产业化战略,对新疆农业发展和经济提升有着重要的推动作用。     

Toward a food secure future: Ensuring food security for sustainable human development in Sub-Saharan Africa

Food security remains a top development priority and global concern. It is enshrined in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development in Sustainable Development Goal two. Food security is also a core component of the human development and capability paradigm, since food access and entitlements are critical for reinforcing essential human capabilities. In introducing this special issue, this paper argues that agriculture is central to improving food security and reducing poverty in Africa. It suggests that realizing the potential of agriculture in Africa requires rapid increases in land productivity and increases in agricultural yields. A science-based approach that integrates gender and sustainability is critical to meet this goal, through the design and implementation of policies that improve the availability farm inputs and farm technology. The paper concludes by introducing the papers in this special issue.     

粮食主产区构建现代农业支撑体系问题研究——以河南省为例

本文以河南省为例探讨了我国粮食主产区构建现代农业支撑体系的问题与对策。河南省发展现代农业存在着农业基础设施薄弱、科技拉动能力不强、农业从业人员整体素质偏低和农业产业结构不合理等问题。河南省发展现代农业需要建立起包括科技支撑、人力资本支撑、资金支撑、组织支撑、市场支撑及政策支撑在内的现代农业支撑体系。河南省构建现代农业支撑体系的对策主要有:立足于工业化、城镇化和农业现代化协调发展,构造河南省农业政策体系;以培育产地批发市场为基础,建立现代农产品市场体系;推进农民合作经济组织创建和市场发育,完善现代农业组织体系;创新体制机制,完善现代要素供给体系。     

How does population density influence agricultural intensification and productivity? Evidence from Ethiopia

This study uses household-level panel data on smallholder farmers in Ethiopia to estimate how rural population density (RPD) affects agricultural intensification and productivity. Our results suggest that higher RPD is associated with smaller farm sizes, and has a positive effect on input demand, represented by increased fertilizer use per hectare. Overall, increased input use does not lead to a corresponding increase in staple crop yields, and thus farm income declines as population density increases. This suggests a situation where farmers in areas of high RPD may be stuck in place, unable to sustainably intensify in the face of rising RPD and declining farm sizes.     

Economic and agricultural development in West Asia and North Africa : The need for agricultural research

This paper analyses the role of agriculture in the economic development of West Asia and North Africa, with special reference to the interactions between oil wealth, population growth, agricultural development and the need for agricultural research. Since the 1960s agricultural supply lagged behind demand, which grew rapidly as a result of population increases and rising incomes. Following the oil recession of the 1980s it was felt that the development of the agricultural sector should be less dependent on other sectors, particularly oil. The possible roles of agriculture in the region's future economic development are outlined, with the implications for agricultural research. Special attention is given to the natural resource constraints affecting the region's agriculture (particularly water), and to the issues influencing the identification of research priorities.     

Is the locus of poverty changing?

Urbanization is now a dominant demographic phenomenon in low- and middle-income countries. By the year 2000, half of the world's population will live in urban areas; of this half, two thirds will be in developing countries, predominantly in Asia. Whether there will be a corresponding shift of poverty from rural to urban areas is the central question of this analysis. Evidence from cross-sectional, time-series, and case data indicates that the percent of poverty in urban areas is dependent on income levels, income growth, and income distribution. The evidence also indicates that the number of poor in rural areas will exceed those in urban areas well into the 21st century. These poverty and urbanization trends are significant politically, and important also with respect to food policy and required investments in agriculture.     

Urban agriculture,poverty, and food security: Empirical evidence from a sample of developing countries

Urban agriculture may have a role to play in addressing urban food insecurity problems, which are bound to become increasingly important with the secular trend towards the urbanization of poverty and of population in developing regions. Our understanding of the importance, nature and food security implications of urban agriculture is however plagued by a lack of good quality, reliable data. While studies based on survey data do exist for several major cities, much of the evidence is still qualitative if not anecdotal. Using a recently created dataset bringing together comparable, nationally representative household survey data for 15 developing or transition countries, this paper analyzes in a comparative international perspective the importance of urban agriculture for the urban poor and food insecure. Some clear hints do come from our analysis. On the one hand, the potential for urban agriculture to play a substantial role in urban poverty and food insecurity reduction should not be overemphasised, as its share in income and overall agricultural production is often quite limited. On the other hand, though, its role should also not be too easily dismissed, particularly in much of Africa and in all those countries in which agriculture provides a substantial share of income for the urban poor, and for those groups of households to which it constitutes an important source of livelihoods. We also find fairly consistent evidence of a positive statistical association between engagement in urban agriculture and dietary adequacy indicators.     

Price and market policy for agriculture

The focus of this policy assessment is on the recent history of regulatory measures in market-oriented economies where the dominating triad of problems is stablisation, farm income support and market surplusses. Alternative forms of intervention are reviewed with respect to their impact on domestic supply and demand, international trade, farm income and labour, and finally how they cope with the process of change in agriculture. The author concludes that stabilisation policies in agriculture are not suitable for perishables where they can easily become a burden for consumers and governments alike.     

Growth options and poverty reduction in Ethiopia – An economy-wide model analysis

This study focuses on which agricultural subsectors are important in Ethiopia’s economic growth and poverty reduction and what kind of agricultural and nonagricultural growth is needed to achieve the millennium development goal of halving the incidence of poverty by 2015. A spatially disaggregated, economy-wide model was developed, enabling the analysis of growth and poverty reduction linkages at national and regional levels using national household surveys, agricultural sample surveys, geographic information systems, and other national and regional data. The study reveals that agriculture can play a central role in decreasing poverty and increasing growth in Ethiopia. Within the agriculture, growth in cereals and other staple crops should receive priority. Agricultural growth also requires concurrent investments in roads and other market conditions. At the subnational level, similar growth rates within agricultural subsectors have different effects on poverty, necessitating regionally based strategies for growth and poverty reduction.