Conditional risk premia in currency markets and other asset classes

The downside risk capital asset pricing model (DR-CAPM) can price the cross section of currency returns. The market-beta differential between high and low interest rate currencies is higher conditional on bad market returns, when the market price of risk is also high, than it is conditional on good market returns. Correctly accounting for this variation is crucial for the empirical performance of the model. The DR-CAPM can jointly rationalize the cross section of equity, equity index options, commodity, sovereign bond and currency returns, thus offering a unified risk view of these asset classes. In contrast, popular models that have been developed for a specific asset class fail to jointly price other asset classes.     

Extreme downside risk and expected stock returns

We propose a measure for extreme downside risk (EDR) to investigate whether bearing such a risk is rewarded by higher expected stock returns. By constructing an EDR proxy with the left tail index in the classical generalized extreme value distribution, we document a significantly positive EDR premium in cross-section of stock returns even after controlling for market, size, value, momentum, and liquidity effects. The EDR premium is more prominent among glamor stocks and when high market returns are expected. High-EDR stocks are generally characterized by high idiosyncratic risk, large downside beta, lower coskewness and cokurtosis, and high bankruptcy risk. The EDR premium persists after these characteristics are controlled for. Although Value at Risk (VaR) plays a significant role in explaining the EDR premium, it cannot completely subsume the EDR effect.     

A novel downside beta and expected stock returns

A number of studies have found that the cross-section of stock returns reflects a risk premium for bearing downside beta; however, existing measures of downside beta have poor power for predicting returns. This paper proposes a novel measure of downside beta, the ES-implied beta, to improve the prediction of the cross-section of asset returns. The ES-implied beta explains stock returns over the same period as well as the widely used downside beta, but improves the prediction for future returns due to its high persistence. In the empirical analysis, the widely used downside beta shows a weak relation with future expected returns, but the ES-implied beta implies a statistically and economically significant risk premium of 0.6% per month and explains 0.6% of the variation in the cross-sectional returns. The effect cannot be explained by traditional cross-sectional effects and is different from the CAPM beta, the downside beta in Ang et al. (2006), coskewness, and cokurtosis.     

The value of coskewness in mutual fund performance evaluation

Recent asset pricing studies demonstrate the relevance of incorporating coskewness in asset pricing models, and illustrate how this component helps to explain the time variation of ex-ante market risk premiums. This paper analyzes the role of coskewness in mutual fund performance evaluation and finds evidence that adding a coskewness factor is economically and statistically significant. It documents that coskewness is sometimes managed and shows persistence of the coskewness policy over time. One of the most striking results is that many negative (positive) alpha funds, measured relative to the CAPM risk adjustments, would be reclassified as positive (negative) alpha funds using a model with coskewness. Therefore, performance ranking based on risk-adjusted returns without considering coskewness could generate an erroneous classification. Moreover, some fund characteristics, such as turnover ratio or category, are related to the likelihood of managing coskewness.     

Higher co-moments and asset pricing on London Stock Exchange

This study examines the asset pricing implications of preferences over the higher moments of returns’ distributions. We show that in a market populated by risk-averse, prudent and temperate investors, firms whose returns exhibit negative coskewness or positive cokurtosis should yield higher premia relative to counterpart firms with positive coskewness and negative cokurtosis respectively. These theoretical predictions are empirically tested using a comprehensive dataset of shares listed on the London Stock Exchange during the period 1986-2008. Our empirical results confirm that coskewness and cokurtosis premia are genuinely priced in the UK market, over and above what covariance risk, size, value and momentum factors can explain. We also show that a theoretically motivated, higher co-moment asset pricing model has significant explanatory ability over the cross-section of coskewness and cokurtosis portfolio returns.     

Conditional coskewness and asset pricing

We explore the empirical usefulness of conditional coskewness to explain the cross-section of equity returns. We find that coskewness is an important determinant of the returns to equity, and that the pricing relationship varies through time. In particular we find that when the conditional market skewness is positive investors are willing to sacrifice 7.87% annually per unit of gamma (a standardized measure of coskewness risk) while they only demand a premium of 1.80% when the market is negatively skewed. A similar picture emerges from the coskewness factor of Harvey and Siddique (Harvey, C., Siddique, A., 2000a. Conditional skewness in asset pricing models tests. Journal of Finance 65, 1263–1295.) (a portfolio that is long stocks with small coskewness with the market and short high coskewness stocks) which earns 5.00% annually when the market is positively skewed but only 2.81% when the market is negatively skewed. The conditional two-moment CAPM and a conditional Fama and French (Fama, E., French, K., 1992. The cross-section of expected returns. Journal of Finance 47,427465.) three-factor model are rejected, but a model which includes coskewness is not rejected by the data. The model also passes a structural break test which many existing asset pricing models fail.     

Rewards for downside risk in Asian markets

Distributional properties of emerging market returns may impact on investor ability and willingness to diversify. Investors may also place greater weighting on downside losses, compared to upside gains. Using individual equities in a range of emerging Asian markets, we investigate the potential contribution of downside risk measures to explain asset pricing in these markets. As realized returns are used as a proxy for expected returns, we separately examine conditional returns in upturn and downturn periods, in order to successfully identify risk and return relationships. Results indicate that co-skewness and downside beta are priced by investors. Further testing confirms a separate premium for each measure, confirming that they capture different aspects of downside risk. Robustness tests indicate that, when combined with other risk measures, both retain their explanatory power. Tests also indicate that co-skewness may be the more robust measure.     

Downside Risk

Economists have long recognized that investors care differentlyabout downside losses versus upside gains. Agents who placegreater weight on downside risk demand additional compensationfor holding stocks with high sensitivities to downside marketmovements. We show that the cross section of stock returns reflectsa downside risk premium of approximately 6% per annum. Stocksthat covary strongly with the market during market declineshave high average returns. The reward for beasring downsiderisk is not simply compensation for regular market beta, noris it explained by coskewness or liquidity risk, or by size,value, and momentum characteristics. (JEL C12, C15, C32, G12)     

Cashflow news,the value premium and an asset pricing view on European stock market integration

The decomposition of national CAPM market betas of European countries’ value and growth portfolio returns into cashflow and discount rate news driven components reveals that i) high average returns on value portfolios are associated with disproportionately high sensitivity to national cashflow news which corroborates recent evidence for the U.S. and ii) two-beta variants of national CAPMs capture the cross-sectional dispersion in European stock returns. The latter finding is suggestive of relatively well integrated stock markets among the core European countries and reflects basic asset pricing theory. One (national) discount factor should price any (international) asset.     

Conditional extreme risk,black swan hedging,and asset prices

Motivated by the asset pricing theory with safety-first preference, we introduce and operationalize a conditional extreme risk (CER) measure to describe expected stock performance conditional on a small-probability market downturn (black swan). We document a significant CER premium in the cross-section of expected returns. We also demonstrate that CER explains the premia to downside beta, coskewness, and cokurtosis. CER provides distinct information regarding black swan hedging that cannot be captured by co-crash-based tail dependence measures. As we find that the pricing effect is stronger among black swan hedging stocks, this distinction helps explain the absence of premium to tail dependence.     

Explaining the idiosyncratic volatility puzzle using Stochastic Discount Factors

I use Stochastic Discount Factors to examine the sources of the idiosyncratic volatility premium. I find that non-zero risk aversion and firms’ non-systematic coskewness determine the premium on idiosyncratic volatility risk. The firm’s non-systematic coskewness measures the comovement of the asset’s volatility with the market return. When I control for the non-systematic coskewness factor, I find no significant relation between idiosyncratic volatility and stock expected returns. My results are robust across different sample periods and firm characteristics.     

Life Insurer Cost of Equity with Asymmetric Risk Factors

This study presents an improved model for estimating life insurer cost of capital with the inclusion of upside and downside risk factors and controlling for life insurer characteristics. Although various asymmetric measures of market risk have been shown to be priced factors for the broader equity market, life insurer realized equity returns include a much larger premium for bearing downside risk, even after controlling for firm characteristics and other measures of risk. Cross‐sectional regression analysis finds a positive (negative) premium for downside (upside) betas, conditional on down and up markets, respectively. Coskewness and cokurtosis are also priced factors.     

Market Segmentation and Foreign Share Discount in China

In this paper, I formulate and test a one-period capital asset pricing model under ownership restrictions to explain the price differentials between the classes of shares that can be bought by Chinese citizens and by foreign investors, respectively. I find that time-series variability in the spread between domestic and foreign share returns is consistent with differences in risk exposures and expected risk premium, thus supporting the hypothesis of effective market segmentation and price discrimination. I also find that cross-sectional differences between domestic and foreign share returns are correlated with individual shares'; market betas. The result further supports the price discrimination hypothesis.     

Risk Changes around Calls of Convertible Bonds

We examine changes in equity and asset betas around convertible bond calls and report two major findings. First, calling firms exhibit an increase in asset betas following the call. We argue that the finding is consistent with the implications of the sequential financing theory but not of the backdoor equity financing theory. Second, abnormal returns at call announcements are negative only for the subsample of firms that also exhibit an increase in equity beta. We conclude that risk changes help explain the market reaction to convertible bond calls.     

Reward-risk momentum strategies using classical tempered stable distribution

We implement momentum strategies using reward-risk measures as ranking criteria based on classical tempered stable distribution. Performances and risk characteristics for the alternative portfolios are obtained in various asset classes and markets. The reward-risk momentum strategies with lower volatility levels outperform the traditional momentum strategy regardless of asset class and market. Additionally, the alternative portfolios are not only less riskier in risk measures such as VaR, CVaR and maximum drawdown but also characterized by thinner downside tails. Similar patterns in performance and risk profile are also found at the level of each ranking basket in the reward-risk portfolios. Higher factor-neutral returns achieved by the reward-risk momentum strategies are statistically significant and large portions of the performances are not explained by the Carhart four-factor model.     

Investment shocks and the commodity basis spread

I identify a “slope” factor in the cross section of commodity futures returns: high-basis commodity futures have higher loadings on this factor than low-basis commodity futures. Combined with a level factor (an index of commodity futures), this slope factor explains most of the average excess returns of commodity futures portfolios sorted by basis. More importantly, I find that this factor is significantly correlated with investment shocks, which represent the technological progress in producing new capital. I investigate a competitive dynamic equilibrium model of commodity production to endogenize this correlation. The model reproduces the cross-sectional futures returns and many asset pricing tests.     

Momentum strategies in commodity futures markets

The article tests for the presence of short-term continuation and long-term reversal in commodity futures prices. While contrarian strategies do not work, the article identifies 13 profitable momentum strategies that generate 9.38% average return a year. A closer analysis of the constituents of the long–short portfolios reveals that the momentum strategies buy backwardated contracts and sell contangoed contracts. The correlation between the momentum returns and the returns of traditional asset classes is also found to be low, making the commodity-based relative-strength portfolios excellent candidates for inclusion in well-diversified portfolios.     

Expected Returns,Time-varying Risk,and Risk Premia

A new empirical model for intertemporal capital asset pricing is presented that allows both time-varying risk premia and betas where the latter are identified from the dynamics of the conditional covariance of returns. The model is more successful in explaining the predictable variations in excess returns when the returns on the stock market and corporate bonds are included as risk factors than when the stock market is the single factor. Although changes in the covariance of returns induce variations in the betas, most of the predictable movements in returns are attributed to changes in the risk premia.     

The effect of downside risk reduction on UK equity portfolios included with Managed Futures Funds

The concept of asymmetric risk estimation has become more widely applied in risk management in recent years with the increased use of Value-at-risk (VaR) methodologies. This paper uses the n-degree lower partial moment (LPM) models, of which VaR is a special case, to empirically analyse the effect of downside risk reduction on UK portfolio diversification and returns. Data on Managed Futures Funds are used to replicate the increasingly popular preference of investors for including hedge funds and fund-of-funds type investments in the UK equity portfolios. The result indicates, however that the potential benefits of fund diversification may deteriorate following reductions in downside risk tolerance levels. These results appear to reinforce the importance of risk (tolerance) perception, particularly downside risk, when making decisions to include Managed Futures Funds in UK equity portfolios as the empirical analysis suggests that this could negatively affect portfolio returns.     

Conditional beta pricing models: A nonparametric approach

We propose a two-stage procedure to estimate conditional beta pricing models that allows for flexibility in the dynamics of asset betas and market prices of risk (MPR). First, conditional betas are estimated nonparametrically for each asset and period using the time-series of previous data. Then, time-varying MPR are estimated from the cross-section of returns and betas. We prove the consistency and asymptotic normality of the estimators. We also perform Monte Carlo simulations for the conditional version of the three-factor model of Fama and French (1993) and show that nonparametrically estimated betas outperform rolling betas under different specifications of beta dynamics. Using return data on the 25 size and book-to-market sorted portfolios, we find that the nonparametric procedure produces a better fit of the three-factor model to the data, less biased estimates of MPR and lower pricing errors than the Fama–MacBeth procedure with betas estimated under several alternative parametric specifications.