Managing customer expectations in financial services: Opportunities and challenges

Although studies have been conducted to advance our understanding of the concept of expectations, a number of challenges have been created in relation to the nature, types and dynamics of these expectations, and the effects of expectations on subsequent evaluations, both of which need closer attention. The objectives of this paper are to examine these challenges in the context of financial services, and discuss how financial service providers can manage customer expectations to their advantage. A set of propositions is developed, and suggestions for future research are also discussed.     

The impact of website design on the perceived credibility of internet financial reporting

Marketing and information systems research show that surface features of a website can induce credibility effects. We conduct an experiment to examine the question of credibility effects induced by the surface features of web-based financial reporting. We predict that participants will perceive financial data from sites with surface flaws (poor style and incompleteness) to be of lower credibility. Consistent with our expectations, we find that surface features can significantly affect users' perceptions of the credibility of financial information. We present further analyses showing that website surface features also impact investment attractiveness, suggesting that website characteristics may adversely affect investor perceptions. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Financial statement recasting and credit risk assessment

This article examines the importance of adjustments to corporate financial statements for credit risk assessment. Prior research has tended to examine individual adjustments one at a time. As correlations among adjustments and control variables may bias inferences when researchers examine a single adjustment and ignore other adjustments, our results provide important new information about previous research by documenting whether or not such bias exists. We find that financial statement recasting adjustments – which aim to better reflect firms' indebtedness, financing costs and recurring earnings than reported financial numbers – are reflected in bond yield spreads and have an economically significant impact on credit pricing and loss forecasting. Among individual adjustment categories, we find that those for off‐balance‐sheet leases, defined benefit pensions and securitized debt have an economically significant impact on credit pricing and loss forecasting.     

The angel investment decision: insights from Australian business angels

While much has been written about the investment criteria of business angels, few studies explore why these particular criteria are important to them. The Australian context has a diverse range of actors along with complex jurisdictional arrangements, making for an interesting background for investigation of the angel finance phenomenon. We examine 12 business angels in the rapidly changing Australian context and use nine corroborating participants to validate responses and identify four key drivers – personal experience, trust, the need to contribute and realistic expectations – that influence business angels during the initial investment process.     

Financial Expectations,Consumption and Saving: A Microeconomic Analysis*

We explore the determinants of individuals' financial expectations using data from the British Household Panel Survey, 1991–2003. Our findings suggest that individuals' financial predictions are influenced by both the life cycle and the business cycle. We also investigate the extent to which the accuracy of past financial expectations affects current financial expectations. Regardless of the accuracy of the prediction, past financial optimism has a positive effect on current expectations formation whilst past financial pessimism has a negative effect. We also explore the relationship between financial realisations and expectations and we find that expectations tend to fall short of financial realisations. Finally, we investigate how financial expectations influence saving and consumption. Our findings suggest that financial optimism is inversely associated with saving and that current financial expectations serve to predict future consumption.     

Liquidity risk in securities settlement

This paper studies the potential impact on securities settlement systems (SSSs) of a major market disruption, caused by the default of the largest player. A multi-period, multi-security model with intraday credit is used to simulate direct and second-round settlement failures triggered by the default, as well as the dynamics of settlement failures, arising from a lag in settlement relative to the date of trades. The effects of the defaulter’s net trade position, the numbers of securities and participants in the market, and participants’ trading behavior are also analyzed.We show that in SSSs – contrary to payment systems – large and persistent settlement failures are possible even when ample liquidity is provided. Central bank liquidity support to SSSs thus cannot eliminate settlement failures due to major market disruptions. This is due to the fact that securities transactions involve a cash leg and a securities leg, and liquidity can affect only the cash side of a transaction. Whereas a broad program of securities borrowing and lending might help, it is precisely during periods of market disruption that participants will be least willing to lend securities.Settlement failures can continue to occur beyond the period corresponding to the lag in settlement. This is due to the fact that, upon observation of a default, market participants must form expectations about the impact of the default, and these expectations affect current trading behavior. If, ex post, fewer of the previous trades settle than expected, new settlement failures will occur. This result has interesting implications for financial stability. On the one hand, conservative reactions by market participants to a default – for example by limiting the volume of trades – can result in a more rapid return of the settlement system to a normal level of efficiency. On the other hand, limitation of trading by market participants can reduce market liquidity, which may have a negative impact on financial stability.     

What factors influence auditors' use of computer-assisted audit techniques?

To meet the challenges of rapid advances in client technology, audit standards urge auditors to use computer-assisted audit tools and techniques (CAATs). However, recent research suggests that CAAT use is fairly low. This paper uses the Unified Theory of Acceptance and Use of Technology (UTAUT) to identify and then examines factors potentially influencing auditors' use or non-use of CAATs. Examining auditor use of CAATs is important because CAATs hold out the promise of improving audit efficiency and effectiveness. Data was obtained from 181 auditors from Big 4, national, regional, and local firms. Results indicate that outcome expectations, the extent of organizational pressures and technical infrastructure support influence the likelihood that auditors will use CAATs.     

The interplay between liquidity regulation,monetary policy implementation and financial stability

I outline a simple framework for thinking through how the Basel III liquidity regulations – in particular, the Liquidity Coverage Ratio (LCR) – will impact short-term interest rates and the process of monetary policy implementation. This framework suggests that a regulatory premium may arise in some market interest rates, creating a new wedge in the monetary transmission mechanism. I discuss ways in which a central bank could react to this new wedge, highlighting what may be a fundamental tension between implementing monetary policy effectively and using liquidity regulation to promote financial stability.     

Is financial advice a cure-all or the icing on the cake for financial literacy? Evidence from financial market participation in China

We examine how financial advice interacts with financial literacy to shape household decisions on stock market participation in China. Particularly, we investigate how the effect of financial advice varies with economic expectations, preferences for asset diversification and the level of financial literacy. Feeding the data of 5274 households into a Probit model that predicts the probability of holding stocks, we find that, while an increase in financial literacy significantly raises the stock market participation of all households, seeking financial advice only increases the participation for those households which have a preference for asset diversification or which have an optimistic expectation about the economy. Moreover, the effect of financial advice is concentrated on households with high financial literacy, implying that an insufficient level of financial literacy is the reason for the poor performance of financial advice in China. We also examine if there are influential trust or quality concerns which would reduce the effectiveness of financial advice but we find no significant evidence for it.     

THE EFFECTS OF PRESENTATION FORMAT ON THE EFFECTIVENESS AND EFFICIENCY OF AUDITORS‘ ANALYTICAL REVIEW JUDGMENTS

Modern audit practice has focused increasing attention on the use of analytical review procedures to improve the effectiveness and efficiency of audits. To assist in this endeavour, one branch of analytical review research has investigated the judgment processes that auditors' use in analytical review and the development of decision aids to improve these processes. Several recent papers have considered how alternative presentations of financial and operating data, specifically graphs versus tables, may affect the effectiveness of auditors' analytical review judgments. However, the results have been mixed. This study investigated the expectation that there would be effectiveness and efficiency performance advantages for auditors receiving graphically presented data over those receiving tabular presented data in an analytical review setting. This paper reports on the results of an experiment that examined the impact of graphs versus tables on the effectiveness of sales account balance prediction, confidence in this prediction and the setting of a noninvestigation region, and the relative time efficiency with which these tasks were completed, for an analytical review of sales for a retailing client. The study found mixed results for the accuracy of the sales account balance predictions of the graphical and tabular treatment groups, with no difference found when a regression model estimate of the ‘correct’ prediction was used and greater accuracy for the graphical group when the actual audited sales account balance was used as the accuracy benchmark. No significant differences between treatment groups was found for their confidence in their sales account balance predictions and the width of the noninvestigation regions set. However, a significant time advantage was found for the graphical group. These findings suggest that there may a useful role for the use of graphs as decision aids in income statement related analytical review procedures in improving audit efficiency without sacrificing audit effectiveness.     

Practice papers: The evolution of segmentation methods in financial services: Where next?

Over the last few years, the financial services market has seen a proliferation of new players and new channels. Customers have increased expectations of being offered the right products, at the right time and for the right reasons. Demographics and affluence have always been the backbone of segmentation tools, but is this still sufficient to meet the challenges that today's marketers face? This paper is a review of how customer segmentation has evolved within the financial services market and the corresponding demand for consumer information. It assesses whether today's segmentation tools remain sufficiently innovative to provide marketers with the information they require in order to maintain competitive advantage in a highly competitive marketplace.     

An Active Asset Management Investment Process for Drawdown-Averse Investors

The contribution of this article is to present an investment process that allows the asset manager to limit risk exposure to macro-factors – including expectations on correlation dynamics – whilst allowing for selective exposure to risk factors using factor-portfolios that emulate the risk and return profile of market micro-factors. The design of the process provides the ability to explicitely limit risk exposures to macro-factors based on forward-looking narratives allowing the investor to reflect – in the resulting active allocation – expectations of financial or systemic crises by, say, restricting the overall exposure to the credit macro-factor that includes the risk factor exposures (micro-level) arising, for example, from corporate and supranational spreads whilst simultaneously increasing the exposure to flight-to-safety macro-factors under a local or global crisis. This process is better suited to drawdown-averse investors that are willing to forgo some upside in order to effectively limit significant portfolio losses from crises, systemic or otherwise. In order to improve the optimization over the rugged solution space resulting from superimposing macro-factors' risk envelopes on the factor-portfolios' tracking error allocation, a genetic-algorithm-based optimization is proposed. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The association between audit committee effectiveness and audit risk

Audit committees (ACs) are expected to play a key role in improving financial statement integrity and as a consequence reduce audit risk. Companies reporting conformity with regulations can have an AC that appears effective but is not actually effective in substance. We surveyed audit partners and managers to identify their indicators of actual AC effectiveness (auditor‐chosen list). We hypothesize a negative association between AC effectiveness and audit risk, only when an auditor‐chosen list, rather than extent of conformity with regulations, is used to measure effectiveness. Results support our expectations.     

The FASB exposure draft on accounting for business combinations and intangible assets: an instructional assignment

Accounting standards are constantly evolving to meet the needs of a rapidly changing business environment and changes in accounting theory. Accounting students need to be familiar with the content of Exposure Drafts, since these documents reflect the Financial Accounting Standards Board's (FASB) position on current financial reporting issues. Students are generally not well versed on the standard setting process and how contextual factors affect this process. The purpose of this instructional assignment is to enhance students' understanding of how contextual factors affect the standard setting process within the context of the Exposure Draft on “Business Combinations and Intangible Assets.” The assignment requires that students examine the Exposure Draft and answer questions designed to elicit responses as to why the FASB is considering a new standard and the impact the standard would have on current accounting procedures and financial statements.     

Stock Market Return Expectations: Some General Properties

This paper examines how and how well do leading economists forecast stock market returns. This question is fundamental in finance, since the Capital Asset Pricing foundation rests upon assumptions about the properties of investors' expectations for stock market returns. The results reveal that economists' expectations of market returns as exemplified in Livingston's data do not meet the necessary conditions of efficiency. It should be noted however, that in later period some improvement in the quality of economists' forecasts was observed.     

The Credibility of Hong Kong's Link from the Perspective of Modern Financial Theory

Hong Kong's linked exchange rate system (LERS) has been in operation since 1983, during which time many other fixed exchange rate systems have succumbed to shocks and/or speculative attacks. This paper investigates how market participants assessed changes made to the LERS by using the tools of modern finance to extract information from financial asset prices about market expectations. These changes have been characterized as making the system less discretionary over time. We find that decreasing the discretionary element of the LERS led to an increase in credibility of the arrangement.     

基于银行流动性管理视角的宏观审慎与货币政策协调研究

本文从商业银行流动性管理视角出发,探究银行微观主体行为如何影响宏观审慎与货币政策的协调。我们借鉴净稳定资金比例的设计理念,将商业银行的流动性管理行为纳入传统理论模型,刻画出两种流动性管理行为对货币政策信贷传导渠道效率的潜在影响及传导路径。在此基础上,采用我国50家商业银行2012年第1季度—2018年第2季度面板数据进行实证检验。我们发现,银行为提升长期流动性水平而进行的优化信贷资产结构的行为,能够显著提高货币政策传导效率。但是,部分净稳定资金比例较低的股份制银行和城市商业银行调整非信贷资产结构的行为则有可能降低货币政策传导效率。因此,在执行既有流动性监管措施的同时,关注与引导银行资产结构调整方式,对增强宏观审慎与货币政策的协调大有裨益。     

An internal control perspective on the market value consequences of IT operational risk events

IT internal controls are an important component of an organization's arsenal of internal controls. Upon conceptualizing failures of operational IT systems, or what we call IT operational risk events, as signals of IT internal control weaknesses, we theorize about these events' impact on internal control objectives in general and about how this impact is influenced by the regulatory environment in particular. We then perform an event study to examine the economic impact of a diversified sample of IT operational risk events from the U.S. financial services industry during 1985–2009. We specifically test the impact of contextual factors on the degree of this effect, including the events' target (confidentiality, integrity, or availability of IT assets), the source of disclosure (regulatory or voluntary), the enactment of the Sarbanes–Oxley Act, and firm-specific attributes. We find that investors penalize firms most strongly for experiencing events that compromise the availability of IT systems, consistent with our prediction that these events more negatively impact the reliability of financial reporting and the efficiency and effectiveness of operations. This result contrasts extant empirical studies that are predominantly concerned with information and security breaches. We find also that investors' penalty is the strongest for firms experiencing IT operational risk events that occurred after the passing of the Sarbanes–Oxley Act or were disclosed by a regulatory body. Finally, the market reaction is shown to be stronger for firms with high growth potential, firms that are larger, riskier, and are in the banking sector. Implications for research and practice are discussed along with directions for future research.     

基于银行流动性管理视角的宏观审慎与货币政策协调研究

本文从商业银行流动性管理视角出发,探究银行微观主体行为如何影响宏观审慎与货币政策的协调。我们借鉴净稳定资金比例的设计理念,将商业银行的流动性管理行为纳入传统理论模型,刻画出两种流动性管理行为对货币政策信贷传导渠道效率的潜在影响及传导路径。在此基础上,采用我国50家商业银行2012年第1季度—2018年第2季度面板数据进行实证检验。我们发现,银行为提升长期流动性水平而进行的优化信贷资产结构的行为,能够显著提高货币政策传导效率。但是,部分净稳定资金比例较低的股份制银行和城市商业银行调整非信贷资产结构的行为则有可能降低货币政策传导效率。因此,在执行既有流动性监管措施的同时,关注与引导银行资产结构调整方式,对增强宏观审慎与货币政策的协调大有裨益。     

The use of management forecasts to dampen analysts' expectations by Chinese listed firms

This paper studies the use of management earnings forecasts (MEF) to dampen analysts' expectations, i.e. expectation management, by Chinese listed companies. We reveal several important findings: Firstly, information asymmetry is positively associated with the use of MEF to dampen analysts' expectations. State control has been found to moderate this relationship. Secondly, dampening analysts' expectations using MEF leads to negative stock return reactions and downward analysts' forecast revisions. Thirdly, the effectiveness of “pre-empting bad news through MEF” appears mixed and dependent on the information content of MEF and measures of actual earnings surprises. Finally, firms that disclose MEF are found to engage in more earnings management to meet the forecasts than firms that do not.