人口增长与我国的有效需求不足--兼论凯恩斯的"长期停滞论"在我国的适用性

从分析凯恩斯的"长期停滞论"在我国的适用性入手,说明人口增长趋势趋缓不是我国有效需求不足的根源,我国有效需求的根本性原因在于生活水平较低,从长期角度看,加大人力资本投资,提高人口质量将起到稳定低生育和提高生活水平的双重效果.     

我国高龄空巢老人照顾问题探讨

高龄空巢老人相对于其他老人有着心理需求和物质需求的双重需求特点,需要专业的护理人员和护理机构长期的稳定照料以及完善的基础设施。但目前我国缺乏专业的护理机构、法律和资金的保障,基础生活设施不完善。为满足高龄空巢老人的需求,我国应提高养老机构的专业化水平,建立稳定的长期照料模式,完善老年人基础生活设施以及有关空巢老人的法律和政策,社区为空巢老人的活动提供支持。     

我国的电力投资方向

国家实行集资办电和多家办电的政策以后,从1978年到1998年21年间,全国发电装机容量以每年8.15%的速度增长。长期困扰我国经济和人民生活水平提高的严重缺电局面已得到基本缓解,低用电水平下的买方市场开始形成。电力供过于求用电水平尚低自1996年以来,我国电力需求持续增长的势头开始减缓,1996年约为7%,1997年约为5%,1998年为2.58%。1998年当年新增发电装机2305万千瓦,增长9.07%,较需电量增长高6.5%,     

我国外经贸发展战略定位

我国人口众多，能源和重要资源严重不足，从长期发展看，必须力争较多地利用国际资源。为此，必须相应增强对外支付能力，保持出口和资本净流入长期稳定增长．在持续提高出口竞争力的同时培育国外有效需求。     

长期护理保险在我国的有效需求分析

目前我国长期护理保险还处于起步阶段,由于传统观念使我国老年人走不出家庭护理的误区,同时专业护理人员紧缺、康复中心数量不足、长期护理保险产品开发存在困境并且保险费率高昂等原因导致现有巨大的长期护理保险需求背景下有效需求不足。我国发展长期护理保险的关键是提高全民保险意识,转变传统观念;健全老年护理体系,提高专业护理人员素质;积累健康保险经验数据,构建科学数理基础;通过政府出资填补可支付需求与高昂保险费率差额。     

对我国医疗行业的效益分析与发展预测

一、医疗机构行业供需分析及预测(一)经济发展与医疗体制改革促使需求不断释放近几年来,我国医疗行业保持稳速增长。行业的平稳发展与国民经济的快速发展以及居民生活水平的提高密切相关。随着医疗保健制度的完善和人们生活水平的提高,居民的消费需求将进一步被释放出来。     

我国食品安全监督管理途径探讨

随着我国经济的快速发展,人民生活水平日益提高,人们对于生活质量的要求也在不断提高。人们对衣食住行等方面的需求,推动了相关产业的发展,但同时也暴露出其中存在的一些问题。本文以食品安全为例,对我国食品安全监督管理中存在的问题以及出现食品安全质量问题的原因进行了分析,并从三方面角度提出了几条改善我国食品安全问题的途径。     

我国演出门票价格问题研究

随着我国国民经济的高速发展和居民收入水平的提高,居民文化消费需求日益高涨。然而,国内演出市场居高不下的门票价格抑制了居民对精神文化生活的消费需求。基于此,从分析当前演出市场门票价格现状出发,探究导致门票价格过高的原因,提出解决问题的对策建议。     

论目前我国的通货紧缩问题

目前我国经济正经受通货紧缩的困扰,它的现实表现是物价总水平的持续下降,主要是由于总需求（有效消费需求和投资需求）严重不足、亚洲金融危机影响、经济全球化导致经济发展周期趋同等原因引起。要解决通货紧缩问题,必须启动国内消费市场,扩大内需,加大政府财政支出,加强基础设施建设,引导刺激投资需求。     

我国消费信贷对居民消费需求影响实证研究

基于2005-2013年的季度样本数据,运用向量自回归模型和脉冲响应函数,对我国消费信贷规模和居民消费需求的关系进行了动态性研究。结果表明,消费信贷短期内会对消费需求产生滞后的抑制作用,但从长期来看,消费信贷会对消费需求产生稳定的正向效应。正确把握两者之间的互动关系,才能制定合理的策略,有效提高居民的消费需求。     

大城市旧宅区居住人口特点、影响及对策研究——以上海市为例

大城市社会经济的快速发展及住宅市场的不断细分,导致了居住群体的相对集中.作为一种客观存在,旧宅区内居住人口不断置换的现象值得关注.以上海市为例,在对旧宅区居住人口特点深入分析的基础上,对其政治、社会经济影响作了广泛探讨,并就如何形成适应旧宅区人口特点的社区管理、服务模式,提出了个人见解.     

Living arrangements and fire-related mortality amongst older people in Europe

Abstract

In Europe, a demographic transition has occurred meaning that countries have larger older adult populations who are increasingly living alone and receiving homecare rather than institutional care. Given that living alone is the greatest individual risk factor for fire mortality amongst older adults and that large differences exist in terms of both fire mortality risk and living arrangements between countries, this study investigates the association between co-living rates and fire mortality rates among older adults in Europe. Freely available datasets with aggregated European data on fire mortality, living arrangements among older adults, population statistics and GDP were analyzed using Poisson regression models. The results show that fire-related mortality rates amongst older adults in Europe is correlated with living arrangements after adjusting for GDP. Specifically, in Europe, when the share of older adults living alone increases by one percentage point, fire mortality rates increase by roughly 4 percent for both sexes.     

新疆人口城市化问题研究

运用人口普查资料及其它人口统计数据 ,分析新疆城镇人口过去 50年的变化 ,探究新疆人口城镇化过程的特征和成因 ,并运用数学模型预测未来新疆城镇人口及人口城镇化水平。提出新疆城镇体系发展战略构想及对策     

新冠疫情管控期间西安市人口分布演变及影响因素探测——基于多源时空大数据视角

新冠疫情的"超常规"管控举措影响了城市人口分布,研究其演变规律有助于疫情管控期间城市人口活动规律认知、聚集趋势判断,以及指导精准化管控分区划分和场所差异化管控。基于百度热力和POI数据,采用人口密度指数、ESDA及地理探测器,分析了西安市在2020年2-4月疫情管控期间的人口分布变化及其影响因素。结果表明:(1)西安市人口密度值及人口密度波动幅度由一环向郊外递减,且人口数量及人口流动性逐渐恢复。与非疫情阶段相比,居民的日常活动周期未发生较大变化,但受复工后企业错峰午休以及居民减少外出影响,活动特征在局部表现不同。(2)西安市高、较高密度区逐渐增加,较低、低密度区持续减少,而随着疫情管控放开及复工复产推进,城市人口分布逐渐由"中心—外围"转变为"中心—外围、开发区延伸"的空间结构。同时,西安市人口分布呈现明显的高、低值聚集以及内热外冷圈层式特征,且随着人口活力的恢复,这种特征越来越显著。在此基础上,进一步总结出防控导向型、防控—就业需求导向型、就业—消费需求导向型、购物—休闲需求导向型四种人口活动模式的特征。(3)西安市7类设施对人口分布的影响强度为:住宅小区>餐饮设施>生活服务>医疗机构>购物服务>办公场所>公园广场,且住宅小区、餐饮设施、生活服务、医疗机构的影响强度逐渐减弱,购物服务、办公场所、公园广场的影响强度逐渐增强,指出疫情管控影响下城市配套设施与人口分布的耦合关系变化是影响西安市人口分布由相对分散变为更加聚集的重要原因。     

低保制度是近贫人口的福利悬崖吗?——基于贫困脆弱性视角的实证研究

未能获得低保救助但贫困脆弱性较强的近贫人口,未来陷入贫困的可能性较大,且与低保家庭相比,还可能存在救助性福利缺失的悬崖效应。本文使用2014年中国家庭追踪调查数据,基于贫困脆弱性视角测量近贫人口的贫困程度,采用倾向得分匹配法探究低保制度是否对低保家庭与近贫人口的贫困脆弱性产生悬崖效应,并分析由悬崖效应引起的救助性福利缺失是否造成近贫人口对低保制度参与权与福利加成的不平等。结果显示:以各地区低保线为基点,近贫人口家庭人均收入高于低保线的部分累加至最低工资线与低保线差值的0.2至0.25倍的区间时,存在显著的悬崖效应与救助性福利缺失,参与权与福利加成方面存在不平等。因此,应将贫困脆弱性纳入到现行低保救助判别机制之中,以此完善对未来陷入贫困可能性的测量与识别;同时将存在救助性福利缺失的近贫人口纳入到低保制度,以此化解悬崖效应引起的不平等。     

世界零售业与我国零售业的发展趋势

全球经济的加快增长为零售业的发展提供了良好的经济环境和动力,世界人口的增长为零售业的发展提供了广阔的需求和发展空间。中国消费品市场蕴藏着巨大的潜力,零售业在中国市场的发展空间非常广阔。但我国的零售业与外国相比,还存在着明显的差距,应针对我国零售业与我国零售企业竞争的劣势,采取相应措施,使其做大做强。     

吉林省农村居民收入对消费的影响研究

区域农村居民消费水平的高低代表该区域农民的生活水准。随着吉林省经济的发展,全省农村居民的收入也在不断提高,居民消费水平也逐年提高。但近年来,由于吉林省农村居民的消费水平相对较低、居民未来收入不确定性增大、农村人口老龄化加剧、农村社会保障体系不完善、农村消费环境差等原因,使农村居民消费率一直呈下降趋势,居民消费不足。吉林省应加快提高全省农村居民的收入,健全农村社会保障体系,并努力提供良好的农村消费环境,以有效促进农民消费,提高其生活水平。     

Does training benefits lead to acquisition of livelihood assets and change in social status? Evidence from training of rice farmers

Livelihood assets which are considered and recognised for their life-supporting role contribute significantly and basically to the standard of living of people. These contributions as deemed more meaningful are considered necessary to farmers whenever an opportunity exists to diversify their investment. This study looked at how the benefits from increase in farmers' rice yield contribute to farmers ability to acquire livelihood assets to enhance their standard of living. A sample size of 265 from a population of 880 farmers trained by Japan International Cooperation Agency on sustainable rainfed low-land rice production technology was used. The objective was to establish how proceeds from rice sale influenced the acquisition of livelihood assets by farmers to support their standard of living. Using spearman rho correlation, it was found that a strong positive correlation exists between increase rice output and livelihood assets acquisition. It is recommended that the technology should be disseminated nationwide specially in low-land rice farming areas so that all farmers in the country could benefit.     

Trade,investment, and labor: The case of Indonesia

Rapid industrialization and urbanization spurred on by a surge in foreign investment is often considered typical of newly industrializing countries (NICs). But in Indonesia, the combination of late development and an authoritarian state has created a particularly potent mix, one that has raised more questions than usual about the effects of growth, trade, and investment on labor conditions and local standards of living. The basic motives of foreign direct investment (FDI) are said to create a pattern that is inherently ripe for exploitation, since the capital, technology and market access all rest with the foreign investor. The author uses the Indonesian case to explore factors that might reduce exploitation. While conceding that foreign investment is likely to affect labor conditions in the host economy, especially in times of rapid growth, she cautions against presuming that the consequences will be mainly negative with respect to the living standards and basic human rights of the local population.     

Fracture incidence among elderly people in institutional care: linking injury surveillance data with a postal code-based register of residential and nursing homes

Fracture prevention strategies will be most cost-effective if targeted at groups of frail elderly people who are at particularly high risk of falls and fractures. Elderly people living in residential and nursing homes are one potential target population, but fracture incidence in this setting remains poorly defined in many countries. We have used the All Wales Injury Surveillance System (AWISS) in a population-based study of people aged over 65 living in the city of Cardiff. We linked a postal code-based register of all care homes in the city with injury data from Cardiff’s only Accident and Emergency department. Cardiff has 47,520 residents aged over 65, and 1,874 (3.9%) live in residential or nursing homes. Fracture incidence was 25/1,000/year overall, and 5/1,000/year for hip fracture. During 1997, the care home residents suffered 162 fractures, 82 of which were of the hip; an incidence of 86/1,000/year overall, 44/1,000/year for hip fracture. Even after adjustment for the age and sex profile of the care home population, fracture incidence remained 2.3 times higher and hip fracture incidence 3.6 times higher than in the general elderly population. Such figures support the potential cost-effectiveness of strategies that prevent fractures in care homes, and are of special interest to those planning intervention studies in this setting.